Open Weekend Post 02/01-02/14 SPX /ES

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

August of 2013 was the last red month. Last year there were only two, so bears are getting their work done early this year. They tend to come in bunches or pairs.

Not much to comment on that was not covered in the awesome comment section this week. You folks really kick ass. Not sure why this is not one of the top blogs for information on the new. I kinda like it under our little rock and think I will keep it that way.

Always the possibility of a FF at the Super Bowl, so be ready just in case. In the championship game I went against the Broncos cause of their D. I still contend Brady had one of his worst games ever. I'm rooting for the Broncos cause of Baily and Moreno (Bulldawgs), but I'm going to have to pick the better D and go with Seattle for the W. I also want PM to win another, but I think that Seattle D is just too much and RW's scrambling may be the ultimate difference.

Minis 60m  -Minis fell and tagged my red diagonal of death perfectly and reversed for now. That's either it for the correction or things get a lot worse. Next stop is near 1700 and then 1630. I'm not sure they can revover if this diagonal goes, and I believe they know that. The STB red diagonal of death was as low as I was willing to go on the last two tumbles. Can they hold it again? We will soon know.

Have a great weekend.

GL and GB

Morning Charts 01/31/14 SPX /ES

I suggest you read 32 Alarming Facts Missing From Obama's State Of The Union Address if you think there is any sort of recovery happening. Among my favorite facts on the list - 

#6 Barack Obama says that the unemployment rate has declined to 6.7 percent, but if the labor force participation rate was at the long-term average it would actually be approximately 11.5 percent, and it has stayed at about that level since the end of the last recession.
#7 While Barack Obama has been in the White House, the number of Americans on food stamps has gone from 32 million to 47 million.
#8 While Barack Obama has been in the White House, the percentage of working age Americans that are actually working has declined from 60.6 percent to 58.6 percent.
#9 While Barack Obama has been in the White House, the average duration of unemployment in the United States has risen from 19.8 weeks to 37.1 weeks.
#10 While Barack Obama has been in the White House, social benefits as a percentage of real disposable income has risen from about 17 percent to nearly 21 percent.
#11 While Barack Obama has been in the White House, the rate of homeownership in the United States has fallen to levels that we have not seen in nearly two decades.
#12 While Barack Obama has been in the White House, median household income in the United States has fallen for five years in a row.
#13 While Barack Obama has been in the White House, the average cost of a gallon of gasoline has gone from $1.85 to $3.27.
#14 At the end of Barack Obama's first year in office, our yearly trade deficit with China was 226 billion dollars.  Now it is over 300 billion dollars.
Sadly those facts are all actually worse than stated. Those facts above are inflated. Yes, our puppet in chief has done a fantabulous job destroying the country he deplores. The good news for him is the idiot sheeple voted him back in, and he still has three years left to complete his mission. At this pace he may need only one more year and the job is already 90% complete. Is it any wonder democraps are fleeing office and distancing themselves from this tyrant? The better news for him, the minimum wage increase, whammo! secure his expanding voter base - yes the idiots he continues to push futher into poverty. Amazing. 

On to the lie -

Minis Daily - STB red line of death tagged this morning. 

Minis Daily - Same chart just zoomed in - there's no support to the 200dma at 1705 and nothing below that to 1625. Once this lets go, I don't think they can stop it until major support levels. Thus, it's called the STB red line of death. 
 

If this cracks, it should be all over. A move to the 1705 area and a backtest of the red line of death near the 1800 area and then poof! is how I would see this playing out. That is if they can stop it at the 1705 level once it starts falling. I've often mentioned that when the gates open EVERYONE will head for the exits at the same time.


It's not time to panic quite yet, but that moment could happen at a moments notice. They have not allowed price to enter the danger zone, but they sure are as close to it as they can allow. You name it and it's bad right now. From EM to earnings to whatever you want to look at here or globally. It is a miracle the markets are where they are now. As Soup said yesterday, no one wants to leave the party, and they all should have gone home already. 

This brings me back to the False Flag discussion - Snipers at the Super Bowl? Yes, really - and then there is Sochi - two prime opportunities for the "terrorists" to hit us at a moment when the governments need the greatest distraction. The next FF will not be a shooting at a school, it's gonna be massive. If the SB was not in NYC, I'd be thinking a large event. Pay attention to see if any dignitaries are warned not to go to the SB. 

More to come below.             

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 1/30/14 SPX /ES

STB pretty disgusted with all the news and the fact that no one can even utter anything that is anywhere near the truth anymore. Even more disgusting the fact that most sheeple just roll along as if all will be well in the end and the typical American fairytale ending will come as it always has. The sheeple's ignorance, arrogance and incompetence is shining more brightly now than ever before.

We've recently moved from (coincidentally with BB and TG's departure) total control and complete manipulation to a situation where control is fleeting and chaos is starting to rule. The Fed's BS taper "all is well" we're recovering was the final straw for those on the sidelines that would not admit but always knew, without QE we we're nothing.

So here we are finally nearing the end. The train is about to come out of the tunnel and find at the end there are no more tracks and there is a cliff waiting. No more bridges are waiting to save this train from falling to its doom. Miracles will be fleeting and not on demand. Bottom line is they can only fight rates now and not the market as well. They have to prioritize, cause if rates rise, it will truly be game over for us all.

Domestic issues aside, the global scene is in complete meltdown, but the MSM is not allowed to report on that or let you know just how dire the situation is across the globe. You see, the Fed (er we the American taxpayer) have been supporting the global ponzi all along, and we can not do that anymore either. The bail-in messages are everywhere now. The global economic meltdown is in its final throws.

Wake up STB to the reality and do something to protect yourself now if you have not. Protect your family and funds. My suggestion is prep like hell if you have not and get your money out of the markets and the dollar. Capital controls are coming as well as central bank theft. Remember the dollar is called a FRN. They can do as they wish with them. Be prepared for that.

On to the lie -

Still reporting from home, so the travel charts are all I have. They have worked fine and are only slightly different from the work computer.

Bottom line is we're sitting on a cliff that has very few points that would stop our fall if we were to go over the edge. At this level or diagonal, the Fed has been able to contain things in the past and consistently make the markets rise to new heights.  Price is literally sitting on STB's red line of death that I've been discussing for months now.

Looking at the charts there may be one last support diagonal below that they may be able to defend, but is 1757 goes (the red line of death on the work computer) I'll call a top and be done with it. As discussed, the irony I face having made my first swing trade in close to two years at the close on Wednesday the 15th is disturbing. I made the trade on principle. It was the perfect technical top at the end of a very long ride.

Why not call a top? Simple, I am ridiculously fearful of the Fed and it's manipulation. As I have said over and over, this game is not about nailing the top anymore but getting that final trade right. Nailing the top is not important. Don't fret missing the first one or even 5%, there will be PLENTY more where that came from.

Minis Weekly - Simple, yellow, beige, yellow and blue - those diagonals are all there is that's left.

Minis Daily - Red line of death. the diagonal that started the red rising wedge that began off the November 1012 lows is it.

 More to come below. I'm at home. so I'll be in and out today.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 01/29/14 SPX /ES

All I have to say is MyRA. The first step to retirement plan confiscation and domination by the government. I would not be surprised if this is completed under the current 

Fed day. 

Earnings. 

China Trust

Emerging Markets (incl Turkey)

GDP Friday. 

All that and I'm at home for a snow day for STB today, so at home with all the distractions. Got about 2 inches of snow last night. Very nice. 

On to the lie - 

Minis - The travel STB computer has the STB red line of death drawn a bit higher than the one on the work computer. At work it's down near 1757. I'll have to see if I can find where they are different. Either way, price is in a serious danger zone. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 1/28/14 SPX /ES

Fed tomorrow but Otyrant tonight. As usual, I will not be watching. Most here know I can not stand to see the person much less hear his voice. Yes, that person who hates America, everything it stands for and wants to destroy this country will address the nation tonight. He's going to tell us what he will do - legal or not. At least we know he will not be lying when he tells us he"s going to use the power of his office to do whatever the heck he wants to.

So, do you think the market will close red on the day Ofascist speaks to the nation? Impossible! Will any bad news hit the wires? Impossible! It will be smooth sailing all the way to the bully pulpit where his puppetness will throw down the law as only he can. Is Tzar Obummer an imperial president? Read this about the person who believes he's king. 

On to the lie -

Ontichrist is all that matters today. Then the Fed and taper tomorrow. The Fed is a big deal, a really big deal. Maybe the biggest deal will be GDP Friday. The Fed's coming action may be somewhat priced in, but GDP is not. Let's see if we can locate the clues for who leaked what and when, then follow their lead. 

SPX Daily - 50dma, 1810 and upper black wedge resistance are all now in the way of a rising price. Markets are somewhat NT oversold, but in the grand scheme of things still way overvalued. There is nothing in the indicators I see that indicates a rebound quite yet, not that they are necessary in this rigged game.

Minis 60m - Price remains perilously close to my red line of death (1755). AAPL took a bite out of the rebound party this morning (went as low as 500 AH). One more of those from FB or GOOG this week and the party may be over. They are not out of the woods just yet, but they are very close to a point I believe they must hold or else. 

             
Minis Daily - Look at the hole they created below the red support. Nothing there to stop a fall to 1701 and the 200dma. After that, very little down to 1630. We're talking verge of epic collapse.

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 01/27/14 SPX /ES

This post from CNBS best describes the local events that will cause us some headaches this week - Anxious week ahead for markets

 "Traders are bracing for another rough ride in markets this week, as the emerging markets continue to shakeout and the Fed is expected to announce another round of cuts to its easing program.

There are also about a quarter of the S&P 500 companies reporting earnings, including Apple Monday, Boeing and Facebook Wednesday, and Exxon Mobil and Google Thursday.

Several major economic reports are also expected, starting with new home sales Monday and durable goods Tuesday, while the first look at fourth-quarter GDP is expected Thursday."

At the top I see Taper, AAPL and GDP -  Looks to be another week full of lies and data manipulation to me. Nothing Will Deter Fed From Tapering This week - well maybe, but Wednesday will be a big day.

As for the SOTU Tuesday - LOL - like anyone really cares to hear more lies.

All this a near perfect cover for the capital controls issue that seems to be heating up. Now, let me remind you that capital controls means what you can or can not take out of a bank that is yours. Capital controls means that what's yours is now theirs to control. As I explained last week (and for the last three to four years) demand deposits does not mean you can go to a bank right now and get all your cash out. It mans they demand to keep and use your cash as they see fit and will give you an alloted amount, but you can not have it all. 

An example of a real extreme form of capital control that HSBC is now using is, "As the BBC reported, customers attempting to withdraw £5,000 or more of their own money are being told they need to provide written documentation of what it will be used for, a new form of capital control" How nice. And if you think that's not happening here in the US, well, go try and get $10k out of your bank. They will tell you to schedule the withdrawal and come back next week. 

Or try this one fresh off the wire - Bundesbank's Stunner To Broke Eurozone Nations: First "Bail In" Your Rich Citizens 

"the Bundesbank said on Monday that countries about to go bankrupt should draw on the private wealth of their citizens through a one-off capital levy before asking other states for help."

STB's been telling you for years you need to be systematically removing your funds from their system (and then getting that out of the dollar and into alternative real assets). I certainly hope you are seriously considering this. If you think you are getting richer or protecting your retirement holding paper fiat currency or paper gold in their system I have a feeling you are sorely mistaken and will regret this one day. 

And what would an STB post be without a false flag warning - they need one soon and a big one at that (or a war - either or both I'm sure is acceptable).

On to the lie - 

This week has potential to start calmly ahead of the Fed, but also with all the earnings and GDP to come it could have a fair degree of volatility. I think chaos is starting to set in personally. So, about the pop this morning - Let's see - the NIKKEI was off 2.5% and the FTSE was off 1.25% and we're gonna open up  a healthy 40 DOW points. Ah, living in the Matrix is so awesome. We're insulated from the rest of the world. We're independent. What happens there means nothing here/ LOL, the arrogance of our manipulated markets has no end.

SPX Daily - Below the 50dma, the lower BB and falling back into the black wedge is NOT where they want price to be especially considering the black wedge support is the line they must hold now at all cost.

Minis 4hr - They took price into no mans land Friday below upper blue LT market resistance. Just below is my red line of death.

More to come below on specific levels above and below. This week is hard to get a finger on as they can turn it so many ways. If the capital controls issue persists or grows then there is serious trouble brewing. My best guess is the Fed tapers into an awesome (lie) GDP number Friday. Of course all this "recovery" and positive spin will be furthered by potential price pumping.

Have a good week.

GL and GB!

Open Weekend Post 01/25-26/14

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge. 

So, what's up (or down) with the market this week? Are we bears just dreaming? Are they enticing the shorts to line up for another slaughter? Are the finally really in trouble? Is this the beginning of the end? Is this just the LEH incident before the last bull run to yet another improbable ATH? So many thoughts. 

If you see it, share it. 

Minis 4hr - OK, brand spanking new minis chart built just in time apparently. This really looks bad, as it should coming off the horrific technical top I've been showing (and even shorted) for a few weeks now. The lowest red diagonal (1760ish) is CRITICAL. That is my red line of death.

Have a great weekend. 

GL and GB!!

Morning Charts 01/24/14 SPX /ES

Risk OFF? Those are some big words right there. I like these following words better, only cause they agree with what I think will have to come one last time - the un-taper.

"while gold is finally spiking as the realization that absolutely nothing has been fixed, that apparently nobody got the taper is priced in memo, and that soon the Fed will have to untaper, begins to spread. Are the central planners finally starting to lose control?"

Let's hope they are finally losing control so we can get this  Keynesian BS over with so we can get on with our lives.  

I still have not fixed my ToS here at work. I did post several minis charts last night in yesterday's commentary. I'll move some of those below. 

SPX 60m - STB trying to remain calm here and not overreact to what could be very obvious (verge of complete system collapse). Everyone freaked out when Syria was initially going down. Keep your head. I've spoken often recently of their need to lower the rising wedge support to create moar room to move forward. My enormous distrust for the system and having intimately seen them move this market for the past five years keeps me in the manipulation mind frame. We have to see certain levels fail before we can start getting all giddy about aggressively shorting this beast.  Cash sub 1800 would be a big deal.

SPX Daily - Two open gaps above, the lower BB is gone (after having noted its extreme narrowness and that potential for increased volatility) and the 50 dma is just below at 1813 along with s/r at 1810. The next stop for cash will be the upper black wedge resistance backtest. Pretty clear that this has been the recent floor. If that cracks then it is even more obvious that the lower black rising wedge support will be the next stop. NOW - IF THAT FAILS - that is the same as my red line of death on my minis chart - then it could very easily be game on for the bears. That's prolly in the 1770-60 range.

Minis made their second target this morning at 1808 and look like they are ready to puke up a lung.

More to come below.
Have a good day.

GL and GB!