STB Morning Post 09/14/11

I can't pull it out exactly when, but I remember a period this year when the DOW minis fell over 100 points 5 out of 7 nights and wanted to crash just like the last three nights and the markets subsequently rallied out of that set up. The euro zone is driving the minis down overnight and they are rallying to "hide" the underlying weakness by the open. I'm not sure why the markets have had two green days, but they have.

I don't know how the markets can be sure of anything given the underlying issues globally and here in the US. What we have learned here at STB is that what is isn't. You can't get caught up in what "should be". The markets are totally controlled. As stated here many times the markets are all they have between them and a revolution in this country. The pension system is underfunded and on the verge of collapsing. It can not afford another "dip" in the markets as asset values give the impression (or illusion as STB likes to call it) all is well.

TYP 60m Wedging Into Support?

Here is a Think or Swim 60m chart of TYP Direvion Technology Bear 3x Shares (or in English - triple short tech bear ETF). First I will say these things are notoriously dangerous and will rip holes in your portfolio where money will pour not leak out if you are not careful with them. Always have a plan for each trade and always use stops.

Black diagonals are either an ugly channel or a large rising wedge.
There is a gap from 18 to 18.64 that needs to be noted.
Note the blue falling wedge.
Red horizontal support at 21.57.

At this time it looks like the blue wedge is in play, but the black formation was there first and may be the driver here. If so, look for first support at the black support diagonal near 22.22. If that goes you have to consider the blue wedge as the driver now and any move thru the red support line at 21.57 should result in a test of the lower blue support at or near the 20.20 area.

STB Morning Post 09/13/11

Not much to say other than China saved the day yesterday (again). It seems that you can always count on intervention of some sort to save the day (till you can't). Bottom line is they will continue to stick save till they can't. As noted on STB a few months back, it appears that the power brokers in governments around the world are tired of bailing out the banks.

The bankers have bled the system and their puppet politicians as much as possible (times two). The governmental representatives have gained nothing politically as their voter base has become increasingly dissatisfied with their performance. On the other hand, you would assume that the money flowing into their coffers from these special interests is coming in at an astounding rate. Quite the trade off, sacrifice your country and political career while you go for the big cash grab. How American!

I think they are thru throwing good money after bad. I think the politicians are actually beginning to see the light. After throwing a DISCLOSED $4 trillion at the problem (not the actual $30 trillion it took to bail out the world) and getting nothing out of it, maybe, just maybe they are growing a set large enough to take on the banks and the default issues that are coming.

I hope you all like the new look old blog. STB.com is still down and I am actually considering staying here at this point till the new blog is up and running. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. What you like and don't like I need to know so it can be incorporated into the new blog. Don't tell me after the fact, you need to tell me now.

Minis this morning have made quite the recovery (not sure who came in with the big stick (or wantons filled with dollars as sellputs put it yesterday). All it takes is a rumor to move the DOW 100 points either way in minutes. Thus, this is a dangerous playground to bring your ball to. Remember to have a trading plan for each trade and to always use stops.

Minis - yellow channel support being backtested. the blue triangle backtest is just above. 1161 (price at now) is first resistance and then 1178. Those can get run thru with the right "solution" today. Inversely 1123 is the magic number for severe downside action continuation. Bottom line is the markets are consolidating at these levels and remain range bound. Note - I adjusted the channel a bit this morning to what should be a more accurate representation of the channel capturing the last low at 1138 - where it was below the support diagonal yesterday. This is an allowable thing to do and is sometimes necessary when working with charts. STB always reviews his trendline positions and if adjustments are necessary, then I make them (and you should as well).

Morning post (Still in Exile) 09/12/11

STB still down. Bottom line is that no one can figure out how, what or why the blog will not load. I was able to get in last night and do another emergency post, but it took about 30m to do what would normally take 5m. Somebody has hacked me good.

Greek default? Who could have seen this coming? LMAO, regular readers here knew it was/is coming. Actually anyone that can do simple math could have seen it coming. Apparently the Fed and the major money managers may have issues with basic math (we'll leave the president out of this conversation).

The big question is, if they do default, how will or can they contain the systemic risk among the banks?

The fiat dollar is exploding now, above the resistance channel and doing the improbable - breaking out? Of all things, for our dollar to be rallying should tell you what a joke the entire global financial system is.

I'll have to update this post and some charts as the day goes, I had a brief meeting here, a call from Inc and a call from Register.com that kept me from getting a full post up this morning.

Open Weekend Post (Exile Edition)

Not open for business yet. Will hopefully get an update before cob today. STB is really peeved.

You know the drill share the love and the knowledge -

Something huge could go down this weekend - Greece default, false flag, something big. Markest stopped on lows and at support.

15m 13/34 that we used to time the top so well last time does not suggest any of the above. That is what we can discuss this weekend. I'll update charts this weekend.

Thanks for the tremendous support and keeping things going. Super h/t to RC today. Really appreciate it.

To those affected by 9/11 STB's prayers and thought go out to you and your familes.

Morning post (in Exile) 09/09/11

How bout that stealth debt ceiling increase last night? Holy shit. Welcome to the 15 trillion level and 100% debt to GDP - the end is near folks. I do believe they could fix this problem very easily, but it would cost us our military might. You just cut the defense budget in half and poof there will be plenty of money. Sorry - not willing to do that. Would much rather starve than be the small dog on this big rock.

Hell, even if they did that they would then expand the entitlement system till the system failed again. It is all so stupid. We got a bunch of lazy mofos/parasites that have been living off the host for too long. OK, HS science class - what happens when parasites overwhelm and wear out their welcome on their host? Host dies. that is where we are as a nation. 

Day Two in Exile - 09/09/11

Well, I did get in STB last night for a bit. If you don't get timed out and have all the time in the world the page will load. Takes close to 5m to load a page, so for me to do a post last night just to get into the add a post page took close to 20m. Not acceptable, so when I got in I railed a bit on the host register.com for their severe lack of communication and failing customer service skills. It was not a full rant. Their prior good grades and my good nature have kept the STB dogs at bay - for now.

Interesting side note - I started surfing on chrome about three weeks ago. My daily infection level went to ZERO. Surfed on firefox yesterday for some reason and got 122 pieces of crap on my machine.

Let me thank each of you for making the quick transition yesterday. It is always a nerve racking thing when a blogger moves or is disrupted, wondering how many readers will get lost or simply go elsewhere. I am tickled pink at the results of the team. I bet whoever it is that is trying to bring STB down is quite peeved right now. This is their 4th hack attempt and to see the results from yesterday we all sent a big FUCK YOU to the hacker.

EMERGENCY POST 09/08/11

This is an emergency post since either host is down or I have been hacked again. 

More to come later.

Wow - got to figure my way around blogger again - Obviously i have a lot of other stuff to do this AM figuring out what's up with the new blog so this will be brief. Do me a favor and leave a comment so I know you are here.

Jobs were worse than expected. Futures dipped and immediately recovered.

1m lower VWAP got abused but was retaken in the next minute. 1m200ma 1191. VWAP 1190. Upper VWAP band 1196 - Lower 1184. About 7:45 minis broke back below the VWAP. I would expect it to stay there for the rest of the day.

Yesterday STB gave the 15m 13/34 as a sell - looks like it will work. This was a TA sell and not a 13/34 cross. This is possibly only a scalp or corrective move before more strength so be careful trading it.