Friday, January 21, 2011
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Friday, January 14, 2011
Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini
Monday I will have a new web address. I will leave a link in a post here redirecting you to the new .com site.
30m charts are on their 5th divergence here (we saw eight in the September run if I remember correctly). Earnings all over the place as well as econ data. Retail disappoints as expected and that should bleed into the rest of earnings season putting a damper on upside enthusiasm along with climbing oil and commodity prices. I'm tired of sounding like a broken record, but at this point in the markets all there is to do is wait on liquidity to dry up.
This 60m chart is setting another divergence and looks to be rolling over for the 6th time since it's lows. You can see the gaps and some of the confusion regarding where to put the diagonals. I hate ugly charts, but that is all the market is delivering. Patterns and set points to form true diagonals off are simply not there.Fibs and gaps are evident.
As we have discussed for some time I then were nearing or in some sort of top. This cycle chart is getting close. The question becomes, in the face of POMO, HFT and the other fraud, how much can the bears pull it back till liquidity dries up. Look at all the round levels that are in the ballpark, SPX1300, RUT 800 and DOW 13000. Those are dual edged swords that can either accept and further price movements or reject them like a bad habit. Keep an eye out for these and the markets reaction to them.
If we get some momo south the minis have support diagonals near 71, 66 and 60. On SPX let's see if we can get price thru the 1274 level before going any further with the conversation (then 62 and 55).
Here is my SPX daily cycle chart again. You can see the purple wedge overthrow that I have been discussion for a couple of weeks now, the daily divergences and that price has entered my red box which means a turn should be very near. the turn at the last cycle point was extremely brief which should add to the severity of this next correction.
Dollar appears to be hitting support at 79. the AUD is gatting hammered and I think will lose all correlations with markets due to the epic/biblical (yes, another biblical event is happening - Aetna is erupting) floods. Gold is falling and about to hit LT support again.
GL, GB and have a great weekend.
30m charts are on their 5th divergence here (we saw eight in the September run if I remember correctly). Earnings all over the place as well as econ data. Retail disappoints as expected and that should bleed into the rest of earnings season putting a damper on upside enthusiasm along with climbing oil and commodity prices. I'm tired of sounding like a broken record, but at this point in the markets all there is to do is wait on liquidity to dry up.
This 60m chart is setting another divergence and looks to be rolling over for the 6th time since it's lows. You can see the gaps and some of the confusion regarding where to put the diagonals. I hate ugly charts, but that is all the market is delivering. Patterns and set points to form true diagonals off are simply not there.Fibs and gaps are evident.
If we get some momo south the minis have support diagonals near 71, 66 and 60. On SPX let's see if we can get price thru the 1274 level before going any further with the conversation (then 62 and 55).
Here is my SPX daily cycle chart again. You can see the purple wedge overthrow that I have been discussion for a couple of weeks now, the daily divergences and that price has entered my red box which means a turn should be very near. the turn at the last cycle point was extremely brief which should add to the severity of this next correction.
GL, GB and have a great weekend.
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini
No matter what happens on the cash side, the minis are simply tracking that support/resistance diagonal that goes back to the beginning of this run in late August. Here is the action since support became resistance in early November.So the minis are simply trending higher on lower volatility. You call that a churn. Not gonna OD on charts this AM as the topping process is continuing. See past few posts for more detail if you like.
We hit the 1283 SPX target I had. Things look tentative everywhere. I am still holding the TZA and SDS trades from yesterday and will guard them carefully. At this point I must continue to caution about further upside action no matter what the charts say. The Fed (broken record) is in control with POMO and you MUST yield to them and follow their lead. Markets are super toppy. I think this is the last move up. I really hope to hit my late January/early February top in time. We have hit the 1283 target. Remember those round numbers are like emotional magnets and they also contain hidden offers, so 1300 is something you MUST know is in the neighborhood. My 30m short chart $TRIN sell signal is going off, so let's look down and see if the bears can gain any momo and at least get yesterday's move back. Baby steps here.
I'll keep saying it till it happens, but until they pull liquidity or we have my exogenous event, you need to be really careful taking your short shots. Don't worry about nailing the top and eking out that first two percent. There will be plenty of time to make money once the turn is in. It is more important to get the trade right and invest with discipline (as hard as that is to do sometimes). Always have a plan and always use stops. Most importantly, never be afraid to end the relationship with a losing trade.
Jobs disappoint. Natgas at 10:30.
The new POMO schedule is here!
Earnings calendar is here. INTC after the close and JPM in the AM.
Econ calendar here. Plenty of action tomorrow morning that can move the markets.
GL and GB.
We hit the 1283 SPX target I had. Things look tentative everywhere. I am still holding the TZA and SDS trades from yesterday and will guard them carefully. At this point I must continue to caution about further upside action no matter what the charts say. The Fed (broken record) is in control with POMO and you MUST yield to them and follow their lead. Markets are super toppy. I think this is the last move up. I really hope to hit my late January/early February top in time. We have hit the 1283 target. Remember those round numbers are like emotional magnets and they also contain hidden offers, so 1300 is something you MUST know is in the neighborhood. My 30m short chart $TRIN sell signal is going off, so let's look down and see if the bears can gain any momo and at least get yesterday's move back. Baby steps here.
I'll keep saying it till it happens, but until they pull liquidity or we have my exogenous event, you need to be really careful taking your short shots. Don't worry about nailing the top and eking out that first two percent. There will be plenty of time to make money once the turn is in. It is more important to get the trade right and invest with discipline (as hard as that is to do sometimes). Always have a plan and always use stops. Most importantly, never be afraid to end the relationship with a losing trade.
Jobs disappoint. Natgas at 10:30.
The new POMO schedule is here!
Earnings calendar is here. INTC after the close and JPM in the AM.
Econ calendar here. Plenty of action tomorrow morning that can move the markets.
GL and GB.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini
You bail one out you gotta bail 'em all out and Portugal is the latest in a long line of countries that have and will keep coming to the tit for more fiat infusion to keep the dream alive. Oh happy day. Another bond auction that did not fail. Green Shoots! Tremendous new that is. Germany and France survive another week. This game can not go on forever (but "they obviously think it can). I ask, if Greece was $120B in debt and had to borrow another $120B to stay alive, how can a country whose major exports are ouzo, grape leaves and tourism gonna pay back even the interest on such a loan not to mention the principal? When this all ends is ends very badly with (as we have been forecasting for well over a year) global default.
I did a post charting the minis today HERE.
MW making me smile watching CNBS for a change.
I suggest you take a peak at the econ calendar HERE. The rest of this week is pretty busy. Especially Friday morning. INTC after the close tomorrow and JPM before the open on Friday.
Dollar struggling to get thru the resistance at the $81 level. Been range bound since the end of the year from $79 to $81. Looks to be trending down now.
New POMO schedule comes today at 2:00.
The charts say some sort of top is coming sooner than later. While with our investments we still must yield to the Fed and the manipulators, you need to keep an eye on the overbought and over bullish markets with deteriorating indicators. I have been calling a target of 1283 (with a possibility of more upside) in late January or early February. Gonna take a catalyst to make that happen I believe. It is amazing what $7 to $9 billion a day can do for the markets while 33 of the past 34 weeks have seen new mutual fund outflows of over $90B and insider selling has been at or near record levels.
CPC - Note not only the red EMA 20 that I use to make the calls, but the blue EMA 100 is even beginning to reach extremes. $BPNYA looks like it wants to cross and the divergence in the $NYMO is pretty sick.
Daily SPX - Just look at it and ask how can it extend from here based on surrounding economic conditions? Or why is is here as well.
Daily SPC Cycle Chart -
GL and GB
I did a post charting the minis today HERE.
MW making me smile watching CNBS for a change.
I suggest you take a peak at the econ calendar HERE. The rest of this week is pretty busy. Especially Friday morning. INTC after the close tomorrow and JPM before the open on Friday.
Dollar struggling to get thru the resistance at the $81 level. Been range bound since the end of the year from $79 to $81. Looks to be trending down now.
New POMO schedule comes today at 2:00.
The charts say some sort of top is coming sooner than later. While with our investments we still must yield to the Fed and the manipulators, you need to keep an eye on the overbought and over bullish markets with deteriorating indicators. I have been calling a target of 1283 (with a possibility of more upside) in late January or early February. Gonna take a catalyst to make that happen I believe. It is amazing what $7 to $9 billion a day can do for the markets while 33 of the past 34 weeks have seen new mutual fund outflows of over $90B and insider selling has been at or near record levels.
CPC - Note not only the red EMA 20 that I use to make the calls, but the blue EMA 100 is even beginning to reach extremes. $BPNYA looks like it wants to cross and the divergence in the $NYMO is pretty sick.
Daily SPX - Just look at it and ask how can it extend from here based on surrounding economic conditions? Or why is is here as well.
Daily SPC Cycle Chart -
GL and GB
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini
Quick (and late) post this AM. Sorry, I had internet connectivity issues this morning.
Still looking for 1283 in late Jam or early Feb as the target. Not discounting even more upside. It appears we're in some sort of topping process as what I see as a wedge overthrow (indicating a top) is in process. That said and with patterns since mid '09 of these wedges "reforming" and extending. This may only be the C touch and not the E touch marking the top. If an overthrow E, these processes can take some time. the one in April took almost a month (which is what I think is happening here).
I hope we top in the next red box for good, but QE and the Fed will have something to say about that.We're darn close to it now. The difference between this top and the one in April - simple - the Fed quit pulling liquidity then, not so this time. I'm screaming the debt ceiling discussions will be the biggest deal of all and QEIII discussions will be vital as well. Market does not fall till liquidity is pulled and then it all ends - quickly.
Still looking for 1283 in late Jam or early Feb as the target. Not discounting even more upside. It appears we're in some sort of topping process as what I see as a wedge overthrow (indicating a top) is in process. That said and with patterns since mid '09 of these wedges "reforming" and extending. This may only be the C touch and not the E touch marking the top. If an overthrow E, these processes can take some time. the one in April took almost a month (which is what I think is happening here).
I hope we top in the next red box for good, but QE and the Fed will have something to say about that.We're darn close to it now. The difference between this top and the one in April - simple - the Fed quit pulling liquidity then, not so this time. I'm screaming the debt ceiling discussions will be the biggest deal of all and QEIII discussions will be vital as well. Market does not fall till liquidity is pulled and then it all ends - quickly.
Monday, January 10, 2011
Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini
Half ice and half snow but we still have power down here in SW GA. Three flurry days and two actual accumulations (added with two accumulations last year) compared to no measurable snow in the past 7 years makes the global warming theory lose some merit down here.
Quick post this AM while I figure out if I will be going to the office or not.
I posted a bunch of charts in the previous post yesterday. Check those out.
Minis off 6. Maybe we get that larger move south that we were counting Friday. 30m minis testing the 1260 close lows from Friday. If those give way we're looking for 56 then 50 there.
We've been discussing earnings beginning today. "Several Dow components besides Alcoa are in the news this morning: Verizon (VZ) is reportedly set to announce the availability of Apple's iPhone for its customers, with that announcement coming tomorrow. That will make both Verizon and rival AT&T (T) stocks to watch, as the reported announcement will end AT&T's iPhone exclusivity."
As I have noted for some time, I think VZ will possibly explode with their release of the iPhone and T will suffer greatly. This will possibly help AAPL as well. I have a friend that likes the idea so much he's bought a VZ franchise north of ATL. The T network .... sucks for reception if you are not in a large city. As they say they cover 97% of all AMERICANS not friggin AMERICA! What a load of shit that advertising program is.
SPX is on a trend of lower lows and lower highs. 1261.74 and then 1255.84 then 54.19 are key levels.
Last week the dollar rose from 79.02 to 81.63 all while SPX went from 1255 to 1271. Go figure.
I think we have set some sort of intermediate top if not possibly a very major one. We have to at least begin discussing the possibility of a major top being in the neighborhood. I've had 1283 as a target (with possible higher moves) and a late Jan early Feb time table for it.
Earnings should not be good IMO. The retail whispers last week were horrible. Who cares? Dollar up, retail in the gutter, EU imploding, pensions suing banks, the news seems to be building like that storm that came thru here last night. At least we have POMO to rise all tides. Thus the Fed's trump card remains in effect dampening any enthusiasm to get short or call a major top.
Not sure what my schedule will be today. I have to work on populating the new site this week as well for launch Monday AM. I'll leave a link to let you know where to go.
GL and GB!
Quick post this AM while I figure out if I will be going to the office or not.
I posted a bunch of charts in the previous post yesterday. Check those out.
Minis off 6. Maybe we get that larger move south that we were counting Friday. 30m minis testing the 1260 close lows from Friday. If those give way we're looking for 56 then 50 there.
From CNBC's pre-market email, "There are no economic stats for release today - and no pre-market earnings of note. However, the start of earnings season comes this afternoon, when Dow component Alcoa (AA) releases its earnings after the closing bell. One of the few events of note on today's calendar is a speech by Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart at 12:40pm ET in Atlanta, where he'll speak about the progress of the U.S. economic comeback."
We've been discussing earnings beginning today. "Several Dow components besides Alcoa are in the news this morning: Verizon (VZ) is reportedly set to announce the availability of Apple's iPhone for its customers, with that announcement coming tomorrow. That will make both Verizon and rival AT&T (T) stocks to watch, as the reported announcement will end AT&T's iPhone exclusivity."
As I have noted for some time, I think VZ will possibly explode with their release of the iPhone and T will suffer greatly. This will possibly help AAPL as well. I have a friend that likes the idea so much he's bought a VZ franchise north of ATL. The T network .... sucks for reception if you are not in a large city. As they say they cover 97% of all AMERICANS not friggin AMERICA! What a load of shit that advertising program is.
SPX is on a trend of lower lows and lower highs. 1261.74 and then 1255.84 then 54.19 are key levels.
Last week the dollar rose from 79.02 to 81.63 all while SPX went from 1255 to 1271. Go figure.
I think we have set some sort of intermediate top if not possibly a very major one. We have to at least begin discussing the possibility of a major top being in the neighborhood. I've had 1283 as a target (with possible higher moves) and a late Jan early Feb time table for it.
Earnings should not be good IMO. The retail whispers last week were horrible. Who cares? Dollar up, retail in the gutter, EU imploding, pensions suing banks, the news seems to be building like that storm that came thru here last night. At least we have POMO to rise all tides. Thus the Fed's trump card remains in effect dampening any enthusiasm to get short or call a major top.
Not sure what my schedule will be today. I have to work on populating the new site this week as well for launch Monday AM. I'll leave a link to let you know where to go.
GL and GB!
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