Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Nice chart on CNBS this AM, the NASDAQ has been higher EVERY DAY THIS MONTH. Ahhhhh, the new normal where nothing is allowed to fall especially going into Xmas. Outside of a mob attacking Prince Charles and his mistress (oops wife), wiki attacks, TSA gropings and a plethora of other negative sentiment, I'm positive the Consumer Confidence numbers will be sterling.

Economic Calendar -   Please ALWAYS check the calendar. 

POMO Schedule -  NEW SCHEDULE TODAY! The only suspense is how much more and when! Yet another POMO day today. Have no fear cause there is still over $500B to go. (We'll most likely have POMO from now to infinity or till the systemic failure that is destined to come.) 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action and throw out tons of charts.

Pivot Points -  For what they are worth in this busted market.

Markets are overbought and trading at resistance levels from 1233 to 1235. You have to ask, does that really mean anything in the face of a POMO driven HFT algo run market mandated by the Bernank  to do nothing but go up? The shorts (those few die hard morns that are left) keep getting crushed and remain in disbelief that the markets will not fall. It is not hard to figure out when you listen to the master printer tell you the markets will only go up.

SPX 60m - divergences are pretty nasty, but remember these are highly unreliable. Best I can say is that the markets are overbought and the rally is (based on the SPXA50 falling) narrowly focused and not broad as one would expect.

I'll deliver my CPC chart today that has been a descent predictor of market tops and bottoms. I have speculated that after Xmas all bets are off and that the market would top next in early February. Looking at this chart, that about fits the time frame, although we have entered an area that the market can turn at any point. So, a top of some sort is nearing.

I hate the VIX (seen just above this). I know it is busted and has been for some time, but I am going to start watching it and those lows. No that is not a giant HnS pattern that is going to target negative 60. I will be interested when it gets to sub 16. At that point let's look for the VIX to start rising with the markets to set a telling divergence.

Markets at resistance and consolidating. I'm still on the consolidation train. Range bound action between 1220 and 1235 may be the norm thru Xmas barring some failed auction or another mob attacking another dictatorial elitist. I hope you have a great weekend and ask that you remember the reason for the season (whatever season you are celebrating).

GL!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

The best news of the morning (and for some time now other than some hackers trying to take down the establishment) is that It's Official: Ron Paul Is Head Of Monetary Policy Subcommittee. Things could get interesting in DC with Ben now having to face down his greatest (and possibly only) nemesis in DC. For those of you not following the wikileaks wars on the internet, I suggest you do on twitter via @Op_Payback for all the blow by blow. Fascinating stuff to me. Santelli just reported non-seasonally adjusted jobs numbers takes the employment figure to over 500k if I got that right. Sorry Liesman was not there to have a fit over Rick reporting that.

Our lovely friends at ZH report Arms (TRIN) Index At Most Extreme Deviation Since 1956 "With the S&P at a 52-week high, this is the most-extreme deviation in the Arms Index since 1956." For those who foolishly believe that technical indicators "indicate" anything anymore in a market in which there is just one player left, may want to be concerned - all the other times such an extreme deviation has occurred, any short-term gains were erased during the months ahead." Which fits nicely with my thoughts that after Xmas all bets are off regarding the markets and that I believe in early to mid 2011 we turn for good. 


Economic Calendar -   Please ALWAYS check the calendar. 

POMO Schedule -  Yet another POMO day today, but have no fear cause there is still over $500B to go. (We'll most likely have POMO from now to infinity or till the systemic failure that is destined to come.) 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action and throw out tons of charts.

Pivot Points -  For what they are worth in this busted market.

Minis gapped down after the close yesterday and have obviously recovered. 1226 has gone from resistance to support. The HnS pattern that would have projected 1200 is still alive but has lost symmetry. 1235 is the top of the recent trading range. Today is similar to yesterday in that the minis were down then up. That tends to lead to an up then down market. Nothing is guaranteed of course. Just considering at trends.

The SPX rising wedge we were following yesterday that looked to be a corrective might prove to be something different. Markets are really tough to read right now with varying patterns across indexes. What jumped out at me yesterday going thru the charts was the possible triangle on SPX (black dashed) indicating more upside from here rather than a stronger corrective we were considering. I am also considering the possibility that recent trend of consolidated range bound trading may continue here (form a rectangle) as the SPX may remain in the range of 1235 to 1220 for the remainder of the year. 

Looking at the $DJUSFN's improbable rise we find first yet another busted head and shoulders pattern that have been prevalent across many indexes as the Fed POMO run ramps jeep destroying technical setups. We see busted LT resistance. We see the 61% retracement held price the break at 280 and now just above there is the resistance diagonal and that 280 level as well. Indicators are overbought.

 SPX daily - Possible divergences being set. Not sure what this chart will look like as blogger is not cooperating at all. Bottom line is that it remains overbought but as seen in the past POMO can drive this as far as they want to.

So, we're looking at a possible breakout today. Would be some sort of 5th wave or the second 2 of a 1,2  1,2 pattern if triangle resistance gives way. Indexes are all over the place and finding a leader or consensus is not possible right now making things very difficult. I believe at the top of this next pop we'll get some notable consolidating and then a tradeable trend will be established. 


GL!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

It appears the yield curve is coming to the bears As Ten Year Sell Off Accelerates, The Bond World Is Flat we all know a flat or inverted curve takes risk off. (also read this and this from ZH). The timing of this works well for my thoughts of the markets topping early next year. The bond vigilantes are rarely wrong. Keep an eye on this development. May force some redirection of POMO funds thus leaving the door open for the bears to gain some ground.

Nic Lenoir had a really bearish post last night on ZH as well. The Market Is Hurting For A Squirting is an unusually outspoken well charted post looking across asset classes at a very bearish scenario for the markets. Dr. Mr. Speaker is a post from Mish on his Emails sent to House Speaker John Boehner in regards to Ron Paul and the chairmanship of the Monetary Policy subcommittee. Please read this and follow the email links.

Gold and silver are getting crushed.Oils is thru but fighting with $87 resistance as it channels up. there are divergences showing up on it's daily indicators.  Tough call on where the EUR/USD pair is headed. Is there another larger leg down to come or is there a slight pop then further weakness? Same but the inverse for the dollar as it travels up busted channel support.


Economic Calendar -   Please ALWAYS check the calendar. 

POMO Schedule -  Yet another POMO day today, but have no fear cause there is still over $500B to go. (We'll most likely have POMO from now to infinity or till the systemic failure that is destined to come.) 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action and throw out tons of charts.

Pivot Points -  For what they are worth in this busted market.


All the indexes are charting different patterns. They are also all over the place as to who has set new highs or lows. Finding a leader is proving to be difficult. The minis had a nice channel going that has busted and price has fallen to 1216 support and now bounced to 1226 resistance. What happens at this level will be interesting. Will the potential head and shoulders formation play out and give the bears a breakdown to the measured 1200 level? Keep an eye on this possibility. I will note that all the HnS patters recently (especially the really big ones) have been snuffed out and have tended more to break out than break down.

SPX 5m - simple chart to show the wedge that I believe was in play. It has busted support. Now, the last time (September) we has a wedge form I lowered the support diagonal three times before the final form showed its self. In a POMO driven market you must be conscious of this possibility. Looks like a clear 5 wave move has completed and were in correction mode now. I am targeting 1207 at this time with 1200 as a second target.

The dollar ran up a bit last night and short term may want to climb a bit more. The bond markets are the nes to watch. Keep and eye for movement in the shorter durations. If they continue to climb the risk off trade come on and the markets will not like that. This could work badly for gold and silver as well (which would make JPM happy).

Lets see how this corrective plays out. Should be a 2nd wave, but in some cases it counts as a 4th wave. they both are corrective down moves. the big difference is one only has one pop left to the top and one has two pops left.

GL and have a great day!

Pelosi and Frank in a tree.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Tax law resolution makes the markets happy, Assange arrest makes banks happy and the Europeans puss out on a bank run, that is a triplee doozie for stocks. Throw in a little magic POMO pixie dust and we may have another 25 point ramp today. Minis almost half way there already. Fear - what fear as /SI (silver) gets to $30.75 and /YG (gold) sits at 1432 (that was a joke). Like that little piggy that went we we we all the way home the markets are gleefully ramping and do not appear to want the party to stop.

From the 1040 low my call has been spot on. Ramp to the QEII announcement, euphoric pop, drop and now the ramp to the top is all that is left. After Xmas all bets are off. POMO to infinity is the play and the Fed has told all of us they will keep the markets afloat and use the markets to benefit all. You should not be doubting them at this time. I was originally thinking February for the top and still am, but may need to extend that to summer. Bottom line is we are in the last leg up. Big question is what will be the "external or exogenous event" I have called for for over a year now that will finally rip the markets from the Fed's control? Another question is does this move end at a measured 1283 or over 1300?

Economic Calendar -   Please ALWAYS check the calendar. 

POMO Schedule -  Light POMO day today, but have no fear cause there is still over $500B to go. (We'll most likely have POMO from now to infinity or till the systemic failure that is destined to come.) 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action and throw out tons of charts.

Pivot Points -  For what they are worth in this busted market.

EUR/USD looks to be in a zig-zag corrective that may have a little bump down to go or it has completed the corrective and should be ready to move higher from here. Either way it is going up and so will the markets as the dollar falls on the other side. IMO the dollar after backtesting the busted channel looks set to continue it's slide. The only confusion now looks to be if the dollar might have one more pop up in it or not. Looks to me like the dollar is in or completing a th wave and still has a 5th to come. That fits well with where the markets need to go to finish this last run to the top.

SPX Daily - The divergence in RSI5 may be telling that things are due to slow down a bit. The MACD bull cross above zero tells us that an already overbought market is getting even more so. RSI14 and S Sto are entering areas where they can top, but still have room for much more upside. 

Daily index comparison chart - The 30m comparison chart is all bunched up indicating a turn of some sort after this pop. this chart however may need for the financials to catch up to the pack before any sort of major turn can happen. we're not over euphoric at this point.

USD and SPX comparison - Barring some sort of loss of inverse correlation it looks to me like the dollar's fall may have a chance of continuing. We all know the Fed would like this. Commodities seem to be getting toppy and that may damper the rate of climb, but climb they should if the dollar continues to weaken. The markest should continue to climb as well. After the first of the year the dollar/SPX may directly correlate as the Fed may lose control of the currency. When that happens it is game over.

Pop n Drop? Don't know. Odds are pretty good markets pop and then go flat the rest of the day, so if you don't trade in the first 30m you can just go home. Hey, that has been a trend recently on the big opens that are not deserved, have little merit and simply peter out. The daily SPX and daily RUT are on two different planets. My 30m comparison chart is all bunched up. Maybe we need to see if the financials can catch up on the daily comparison before we get the next sell off. Divergences are obvious, but we saw the 30m divergences get abused 8 consecutive times in September. That was a 3rd wave and this is a 5th, so things should not be that extreme. As for now the Xmas ramp is on like Donkey Kong. Not sure what news is out there that can slow the bulls momo at this time. All we can do is wait and look for signals. At this time I think this is 5 of 3 or possibly 1 of 5.


GL and have a good day.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Really looking forward to see how successful the EU bank run will be tomorrow. We'll wake up to some effects of this in the morning. Bailouts galore still continue. Must have stimulus risk on trade is what it is all about. they have not even gone thru the first $100 billion of the $600 of QEII  and they are already talking QEIII. Things are great! Of course there are no worries of a double dip, the friggin economy is a zombie hooked up to the ponzi/fiat machine. It won't double dip, it will just collapse and disintegrate.

Economic Calendar -   Please ALWAYS check the calendar. 

POMO Schedule -  Light POMO day today, but have no fear cause there is still over $500B to go. (We'll most likely have POMO from now to infinity or till the systemic failure that is destined to come.) 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action and throw out tons of charts.

Pivot Points -  For what they are worth in this busted market.


AUD/JPY is consolidating and has busted correlation from the SPX. the dollar is backtesting the busted channel support here and is just under it's 80.11 resistance. The EUR/USD has completed a 38% retracement of the last fall and is reversing. So dollar up and EUR down over the weekend, might be time for those trend to reverse.

Minis trading at 1216 support and have been range bound since Thursday between 24 and 16. If 16 cracks 12, 07 and 00 are the major support levels.

I love it when my comparison charts bunch up like this at the top of the bottom. This is the 30m comparison chart. Usually indicates trend change of some sort. The daily comparison still has the financials lagging significantly.

Even the 60m chart is getting overbought now. Of course we have learned that this means nothing in this manipulated POMO driven market (other than POMO is real and effective and dangerous to shorty). Possibly 5 waves completed for 1 of 5. That bull MA cross there should indicate more strength to come.

Bottom line is where we are in the count a period of consolidation should be upon us. SPX support levels are 19, 07 and 00. Don;t think it gets blow any of those. Lot's depends on tomorrow's EU bank boycott. So, let's go with the futures (down 5 here) indicating some sort of turn, and then see how the EU plays out coming into the open tomorrow. Not sure if the bears can get any real momo going vs this POMO/fiat market. Should be a dull to down day.There are 15 (FIFTEEN!) open 1m gaps above the 1173 low. Let's see if some of those can get filled.

Here is something I did on current market levels for the Darkside this AM where I post lots of charts during trading hours.

SPX got within 2 points of it's November high and is trading above the 1219 April high.

DOW is about 60 points off it's November high and is trading above it's 11258 April high.

NASDAQ is trading at it's November high and did take out the November high and is trading well above it's 2535 April high.

RUT has left earth's atmosphere and is in orbit. The index that lagged taking out it's April high 749 has now dusted that and is 18 points above it's November high of 739.

GL and have a great week.

And sadly this sums up where we have evolved to:

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Monetization Bitchez! ECB Intervention Continues: Trichet Accelerates Portuguese Bond Buying, Forces Short Squeeze "That's what Christmas is all about Charlie Brown." To you blockheads that don't get it, fiat expansion, sucking up and hiding bad debts and manipulating stock markets to bring Christmas Black Friday joy to all (even the TSA "handlers") is everything and there is nothing else. Jobs data was a bit confusing. My thoughts on that are the Dems needed a boost to prove the Bush tax cuts must go.

Jobs report - Liesman calls it "another head fake" Puhlease. Wow, Liesman actually showed the U6 number for unemployment at 17%. Did not know they knew that statistic existed. Pissonme just said QEIII is now much more likely so buy the markets! Payrolls Huge Miss: +39K Compared To Consensus Of 150K, 9.8% Unemployment Rate from Zero Hedge puts it best, "And so the myth of the recovery can suck it."

Economic Calendar -   Please ALWAYS check the calendar. 

POMO Schedule -  Light POMO day today, but have no fear cause there is still over $500B to go. (We'll most likely have POMO from now to infinity or till the systemic failure that is destined to come.) 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action and throw out tons of charts.

Pivot Points -  For what they are worth in this busted market.

Minis fell from a high of 1227.25 which overnight finally took out the November QEII announcement highs and fell in a "flash" to the April high support at 1216. Below 16 just like on SPX you have 1207 and then 1200 support.

Dollar - cracks support this morning on EUR surge (cause monetizaton will do that). Here is the /DX long term. Please note the $79 support/resistance level going back to '08.

Dollar drilled down - showing the busted green resistance and halt at $82 resistance and upper (red) channel resistance.

Even more - As noted above in the first chart the $79 S/R level (red) just cracked. With the EUR surging on Trichet's money binge (just now catching up with the Fed's policies in a last ditch sign of desperation to save the EU banks) the dollar may want to head back to backtest the busted green diagonal. This would mean more strength for the markets.

EUR/USD - Time for a surge back to $1.42, or just a backtest of the busted channel support?

SPX 30m - Pointed hard at this chart yesterday saying some sort of corrective was overdue. I must add that this 30m charts and the numerous divergences were blown thru in the 3rd wave and it meant little to market timers thru September and October.

The daily SPX bull MACD cross late yesterday (above zero!) will get whipsawed at the open this morning. Today is a light POMO day (but have no fear there is plenty more to come!). 1219 will be cracked at the open. I would expect a backtest of that level and then all bets are off at that point. If it gets back thru up up and away we continue. If not you have to look at 1207 and then 1200 (1195 at max worst). Wave 5 up has started. this is a 5th and not a 3rd, so it will not be as powerful as the run thru September and October. It is the march to the ultimate top though. Bears better enjoy this brief move south. I'll be loading up long at the bottom.

What the government gets and what the sheeple are slowly beginning to understand is that this is the great wealth grab. The banks are taking everything. the system is out of control and until law is restored this trend will continue unabated and the middle class will be wiped out. What you really need to be looking out for is the vote on the repeal off the bush tax cuts. If they change the tax law I believe there will be (and there already is based on insider selling) a rush to dump low basis legacy positions of equities (do you want to pay 15% or OI?)

GL, happy Hanukkah, happy holidays and have a great weekend.

Linus Van Pelt: "And there were in the same country shepherds abiding in the field, keeping watch over their flock by night. And lo, the angel of the Lord came upon them, and the glory of the Lord shone round about them: and they were sore afraid. And the angel said unto them, 'Fear not: for behold, I bring unto you good tidings of great joy, which shall be to all people. For unto you is born this day in the City of David a Savior, which is Christ the Lord. And this shall be a sign unto you; Ye shall find the babe wrapped in swaddling clothes, lying in a manger.' And suddenly there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host, praising God, and saying, 'Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men.'"
[Linus picks up his blanket and walks back towards Charlie Brown]
Linus Van Pelt: That's what Christmas is all about, Charlie Brown.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

So much to bitch about and so little time. EU is now back in their cage and should not be heard from for another 6 weeks, which will free up the markets and POMO to continue the ramp to infinity and beyond. The ramp job yesterday was classic intervention. All is well, so well the markets ramp 22 points in the first 5m and get a 3 point follow thru the next 6 hours and 27 minutes. That is confidence I tell ya.

Talking heads spewing their crap in overdrive this morning on CNBS. Liesman discussing the upside to the jobs report is disgusting at best. Not so sure why I watch anymore. They have moved to tragicomedy status and honestly have become more painful to watch (even Mandy is not doing it for me anymore). I guess it is kinda like watching Jenna Jamison go at it for the 500th time, it gets a little tired.


Economic Calendar -  Pretty busy week after today. Please ALWAYS check the calendar.

POMO Schedule -  $39B in POMO this week. (We'll most likely have POMO from now to infinity or till the systemic failure that is destined to come.) 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action and throw out tons of charts.

Pivot Points -  For what they are worth in this busted market.

POMO bitchez! POMO has apparently returned from it's one month hiatus while funding the muni-markets, the IRE bailout and pumping funds into the IMF for Spain. What an entrance, even Liberace would have been impressed with the morning woodie they put in that first 60m candle yesterday (but certainly not with the way it petered out the rest of the day). Can the markets follow thru? The 30m charts say a corrective is due here. Possible base channel forming indicating much more upside to come. Looking for 100 to 1195 as pullback targets. Something to note is the RUT is the only major index to have not taken out its April highs. It came within two points yesterday.

Dollar/SPX inverse correlation chart. Not much comment necessary here. You can see where the SPX did not follow it's master (cause it's POMO mistress intervened) last week when, in theory, cash should have fallen a bit more as the dollar ramp would indicate. Now that the EUR issues are (at least temporarily) settled, will the dollar continue to slide (commods to rise again barring more margin hikes) thus providing even more fuel to pump price into Xmas and EOY prints?

Index comparison chart - Financials lagging and everyone else hanging around the highs. Will the financials lift again?  Given the Fed's release of TARP data and any possible backlash on Fed funding to institutions (both legally domestic and illegally with your tax dollars globally) is yet to be known. Add the fact that Wikileaks is back up and has their revolver pointed squarely at one large banks temple, and you get a brew that may keep the banks under performing for at least another day or two. 

Have not shown the CPC chart in a while. This chart says the markets should have topped or are at a minimum nearing a point where a top is near.

Yesterday was a surprise to me (and many others). We should be used to those by now. When playing with a dealer that has a rigged deck and unlimited bankroll (fiat of course), you should expect that. We can't afford any negative emotions thru the Xmas season. Everyday from now thru the 24th needs to have Black Friday hysteria. Get out and trample your neighbor for that $15 toaster.

GL!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Minis up 15.5. Impressive! Not sure how long this will last, but turning around a rather dismal looking TA situation on a dime is what the Fed is all about. Suck 'em in and punish the shorts. Thanks POMO! We all know that not much makes sense anymore. Everything is busted but when the global economy is fueled by a fiat burn rate that would send any object into orbit, who cares, right? What's the matter? Markets are up, Xmas season is upon us, TSA has laid off touching your junk, how could things get any better right? "Send in your economic recovery success stories."

Bullshit is the new Bah Humbug I say. The MSM is pumping the glory of the recovery and how well things are and we got 99ers that are on the streets starving to death. 42 million plus on food stamps, WE are the largest holders of our own national debt, I have to ask, how ignorant are the sheeple of this nation to not be able to see what is coming? Sadly, the war was lost with the original founding of the Fed. Now the only way to win will the be to eliminate the Fed.

Economic Calendar -  Pretty busy week after today. Please ALWAYS check the calendar.

POMO Schedule -  $39B in POMO this week. (We'll most likely have POMO from now to infinity or till the systemic failure that is destined to come.) 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action and throw out tons of charts.

Pivot Points -  For what they are worth in this busted market.

About 10:30 last night the minis started their drive north. Lifting off like Rudolph was in the lead they are now at cruising altitude +15.50 (so much for buying the gap down open today). After rising above the clouds (resistance at 91) a final thrust got them thru the atmosphere (over the upper resistance diagonal at 93) and now the resistance has become support at those levels. Would not you love to see them burn up on reentry?

Remember that dollar chart from yesterday? Approaching upper channel resistance? Hit it.

EUR/USD - Not sure what stopped the EUR before hitting 1.26. One would think this will be a 5 wave move south here and not an ABC as it looks. Right now the 3rd or C is still short of 1 or A. 1.34 resistance is the 38% retracement. Possible 4 up to backtest the busted channel support diagonal.

Not much sense in showing any SPX charts this morning because the turn in the futures is gonna blow 'em all up (thanks again POMO). I will share this chart comparing the SPX, FTSE, SSEC and NIKK. If trend holds a break south may be coming soon. FTSE turns first with the others, SPX lags, and then they all fall together.

Right now looks like cash will get to gap resistance near 95 at the open. 1200 has been the upper range for this move. How much strength this move has we'll soon find out. 1200.30 would be a higher high. Based on the downturn in all the daily indicators it really looked like C was going to start today. The upper resistance diagonal off the top should be taken out at the open on cash. That will be an issue for the bears. Everything I am looking at had set up a sell scenario and that last 30m candle yesterday was a beauty. Let's see if the bears get a chance to sell an open instead of buying one today as this B or 2 wave plays out.

GL and enjoy the holiday season.

One of my favorite lines of the season,

“And the Grinch, with his Grinch-feet ice cold in the snow,
stood puzzling and puzzling, how could it be so? It came without ribbons.
It came without tags. It came without packages, boxes or bags.
And he puzzled and puzzled 'till his puzzler was sore.
Then the Grinch thought of something he hadn't before.
What if Christmas, he thought, doesn't come from a store.
What if Christmas, perhaps, means a little bit more.”

Dr. Seuss