Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

The Bernanke Put is on. I believe there is a significant amount of confusion created by this. Why? Simple, to know when you roll out of bed, know you are going to a casino and knowing that you are virtually guaranteed a winner on every bet you place that is a little hard to grasp. I simply don't think people can fathom the fact that the Fed is begging you to place your bets in the market and they are guaranteeing you will win. They want you to win, win, win so you will go spend, spend, spend. Fucking GENIUS!
 
Economic Calendar -  Please ALWAYS check the calendar. Almost all the Fed governors speak today. That should make for great theater on a non POMO day.

Earnings Calendar - Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - NO POMO today. There is one last one Monday. The next schedule will be released on the 10th.

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.

SPX:gold and SPX silver - Not pretty.

Index comparison daily - don;t look now, but here come the financials insolvency, foreclosuregate and all. What was that 80's song....Don't Worry, Be happy.

SPX weekly - What can QEII do to a weekly projection? Well, see that pink box? That is what I was thinking. Now see the black box and the extended wedge? Welcome QEII. Now, this is totally different than my top in February near 1250 projection. I just whipped this chart up this AM, so don't hold me to this one. One of my best calls was the lowered (red) wedge support diagonal to the pop in January to the higher highs and the top in April. Being an enormous believer in manipulation that kept me long till April. Then Bernanke started pulling liquidity and QEI stopped. Aaaaand It's Gone (see vid on right). This move has taken me totally off guard. Why? The Bernanke Put. Somehow I could not anticipate or believe that the fraud in the markets could be this prevalent for this long.

We still have a chance at a 5 to 8% corrective here. Next week is the bears only shot as when QEII kick in it will make QE Lite look like a pussy cat. My target of 1130 is a distant thought now and I am more looking at the 1170 area at best for a corrective here (if that is even possible). That black wedge and the target box may prove to be really conservative is the fraud is allowed to perpetuate. Buy, buy, buy baby! We could be about to see a market that rivals 1999. Not kidding. Here it the bad news. They are sucking you in again for the final rape of wealth.they left some on the table in the last two bubbles and one last push to bring Joe six pack into the markets should do it.

Right now all calls are off the table. I believe the markets have to digest QEII, and we need the next POMO schedule and see just how large these POMO purchases are going to be. This is really unbelievable. They are going to pump the markets to get you to invest and make gobs of money so you can go spend it to revive the country. This is the solution they have come up with to all our problems. If that is not the most inept piece of crap you have ever heard of I'm not so sure what is. Nothing gets resolved till we address the structural issues regarding insolvency, debt, unsustainable job losses, fraud, corruption and the myriad of other issues facing this nation. Inflation, deflation and stagflation, we're gonna have them all. We're busted and this market ramp is the big distraction/smoke screen they are throwing up to kick the can down the road a bit farther. Sooner or later is gonna come a curb where they can't kick the can any farther then it all ends.

Enjoy your weekend.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

I think tomorrow is going to be a massive day. Almost all the Fed governors are speaking and Ben speaks at 2:00. We have a POMO day today (and apparently an unlimited supply of POMO to come). Ben has spoken and continues to send the message to the shorts the they will be wrong perpetually. We're sadly getting closer to the end as QEII is now being globally accepted as the desperation play it is. Hey, who cares! The Fed is now the (finally admitted) global money tit and their tank is full. Pull up to the trough and get your fill (and you can bend over and violate a few more American taxpayers at the same time!).

Economic Calendar -  Please ALWAYS check the calendar. Almost all the Fed governors speak tomorrow. That should make for great theater on a non POMO day.

Earnings Calendar - Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - POMO today. There is one last one Monday. The next schedule will be released on the 10th.

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.

Is there really any sense in posting charts anymore? I mean really. What is the point when we all have an investors dream of perpetually rising markets. What a bunch of dipshits all those insiders that have been selling in droves must be. Ha, and they are running the companies that run the nation. What do they really know? (sarcasm).

I have fortunately been right on many calls, but the one that resonates the most is that the Fed knows that the markets are all they have left between them and total anarchy in the USA, and they will keep the markets up at all cost. This point was echoed loud and clear yesterday. Sadly the other point I have been screaming from the mountain top for well over a year now is that it will take some form of "external" catalyst that is out of "their" control to finally rip the markets from "their" control. What this event will be is anyone's guess.

The insolvency of the TBTF's did not work. Fraudclosuregate has not worked. The PIIGS, jobs, RE/CRE, CDS or MBS,  currency wars or all the myriad of other disasters that have launched attacks have failed. What will it take?  Bottom line is that the Ponzi that is our global economic system will collapse and systemic failure will occur. We all now know that none of this is real. How do you revert from fantasy, say from the unicorn, to the Ass that we really are? It won;t be pretty.

I guess the only reason to post a chart these days is to see just how many technical rules can be violated thrown out the window. This may become a drinking game. Every time you get a 6 point up 1m candle you take a shot. Shot for every stick save. Shot for every whipsaw. Shot every time RSI14 hits 70. Not sure I can handle that game. Seriously, we'll keep digging and believing in technical analysis and the principles that got us here. Can't give up. TA will eventually win I believe.

SPX 60m - I may lower the lower wedge support. I'm sticking with the wedge for now. I don't think the upper resistance will be violated. Bottom line is the market is forming rectangles and ramping over and over and over and this will be the pattern that continues till all retail is out and the only money left will be the Fed. At that point they take everything private and we become the fascist state we are destined to become. All pensions and retirement plans will be taken over and nationalized. This controlled run should become pretty predictable and buying on POMO days and the dips will remain the theme. The markets have fallen in ABC fashion and then ramped. We'll continue to look for this pattern.

SPX weekly - Is the larger wedge that I have been bringing up for a few weeks now the one that is in play now? Not so sure, but we must consider it. Given the weekly chart is getting overbought and embedding in some cases that is hard to consider. Let's not discount any upside potential cause Ben has warned us not to.

Updating my cycle lines chart I have tightened the black box and raised the red box to reflect what I STILL think will be the move. 4th wave down to 1130 and then 5=1 for a 120 point move to top for good near 1250 in February.

POMO day. Vegas is no longer taking red/green bets on these days since they always close green. 1219 is supposedly the magical number that invalidates all the EWT madness.I thought is was 1186, but apparently they can change the rules.

1210 is my upper target at this point and then we go sideways again buying the dips and selling the rips.

GL!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

America has spoken. Will they listen? I doubt it. At least Barry's administration has been called out and he won't have the free run he had at destroying the country. 2 years, complete control and trillions spent and what does he have to show for it? Bottom line is someone has to grow a pair and challenge the special interests. Can the bankers be prosecuted and can real regulatory reform happen? Can the Fed be dissolved? Without that America will never rise from the ashes.

Economic Calendar - Zero Hedge promptly questions the validity of these data points in Perpetually Wrong ADP Number Comes At 43K, On Expectations Of 20K, Up From Prior -2K Please ALWAYS check the calendar. There are a load of important things today and the rest of this week.

Earnings Calendar - Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - NO POMO today. There is one tomorrow. There are only 2 POMOs left and the next schedule will be released on the 10th.

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.

Stockcharts appears to be down, so I deliver the chart I posted on September 01. Why you ask? Cause it was right then and may still be today. Your mandate is to buy, buy, buy. Selling will not be tolerated and anyone that tries to do so will be punished severely.

Don't think we can say much till 2:15 when Ben speaks. So far the election results appear to have been very accurately priced in. Not to hot, not to cold, just right to not elicit any market reaction. That leaves the question as to how was QEII priced in?

Markets are in a precarious spot with April highs just above in most indexes. Overbought falling out of a busted wedge for the second time. Will we have to lower the wedge support diagonal once more to placate the bulls thirst for more upside? If new highs are set that must be considered. In that case this multi-week rectangle may make for a measured move up (continuing the pattern over the past couple of months).

Downside potential is evident. We all know the troubles that exist. No need in beating that horse to death. We all know that technically the markets are growing more overbought every day and have been stretched to if not beyond normal limits.

What's different (than in a normal market) is that the markets are controlled and fraud is rampant. They are controlling markets via FX intervention, market intervention or a variety of other methods. They seem to be able to manage disasters like fraudclosuregate or insolvency every time they arise. This string of luck will run out. When it does the markets will collapse. Till then we must remain patient and follow their lead. Any other strategy has been futile.

At 2:15 the markets will tell us what to do. I have been in the pop then drop camp. Was the pop yesterday? Is the 1200 resistance area too much for even the Fed to capture? Will the euphoria of Barry losing total control be enough to rally the markets? Will the new congress finally put the patient in the operating room and open it up and begin to actually fix something (which will cause enormous pain)? Will the Fed surprise on QEII announcement? All big questions. Bottom line is that until the Fed and Treasury loses control, we are playing their game.

GL!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Election day! Get out and VOTE! All votes count. I'd prefer you vote for non incumbents, but you do what you feel is right. Just go vote.

What moved the markets this morning? Well, other than the near perfect ABC move off the top, RBA Rises Policy Rate By 0.25% Bps To 4.75%, With Consensus Calling For Unchanged, AUD Surges Across The Board, Futures Follow was the primary reason. The AUD/JPY chart from the April highs contours the SPX's movements almost perfectly. 

Economic Calendar - Please ALWAYS check the calendar.

Earnings Calendar - Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - NO POMO today or tomorrow! There are only 2 POMOs left and the next schedule will be released on the 10th.

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.

AUD/JPY daily - Resistance just above at 81.32 and then upper channel resistance near 82.60 should not be violated.

AUD/JPY 4hr - A closer look at the recent channel breakout and resistance point.

SPX Daily - BB width is 37 and falling. I see anything below 70 as predicting volatility. This is an extreme reading. Something is about to blow up big time. Wedge is busted. 1200 and April highs are not far away. The indicators are trying to whipsaw at this time.

30m Index Comparison - RUT went into freefall yesterday catching up with the lagging financials. COMPQ refusing to yield.

SPX, USB, VIX and TNX comparison chart - VIX diverging to SPX. TNX equilibrium to SPX price is about 810. USB is all blown up. the weekly 200ma for SPX is at 1193.

So there you have it. We're being dragged around by currency rates, POMO and QEII. Markets are precariously close to the April highs again. The weekly chart is starting to gt nasty. If the MACD histogram throws in a falling candle that may seal the deal. Tomorrow is D-day. Positioning for QEII is happening and the spikes on POMO and falls on non-POMO days tells the story. No POMO till Thursday. Insider selling and overly bullish sentiment are two keys as well. Mish covers them both nicely in Extreme Readings in Bullish Investor Sentiment as Insiders Bail at Highest Rate Ever Tracked.

As for today, who the hell knows? I'd expect a sideways quiet day, but you never know. Late day positioning will be key to see if there are any QEII leaks. Sell the news? I'd expect a good bit of that. Just have your powder dry for tomorrow.

GL!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Not much to say other than tomorrow is a big day. I guess you could call it my D-day. Since the moment when Ben spoke and promised QEII and implemented one of the greatest stick save reversals in market history (bad GDP and employment numbers reversing the markets off a potentially collapsing right shoulder) it has been painfully clear that up would be the only direction for this rigged investment apparatus we still call a market. Here we are with overbought conditions that now rival the April highs on some indicators.

Sell the news? We'll know tomorrow. I think so. I have been calling for a pop then drop, but I am not so sure about that right now. The euphoria over QEII has diminished. Since someone actually decided to look at the effects of adding trillions more to our debt, the effect (or lack thereof) of additional stimulus and overall sentiment for our elite rapists has caused quite the cloud to form over Captain Helicopter's plans to further inflate the bubble for the sole benefit of the TBTF's.

Economic Calendar - ISM and Construction Spending at 10:00. Personal Income And Spending Both Miss Expectations, As Savings Rate Drops To 2010 Low Please ALWAYS check the calendar.

Earnings Calendar - Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - POMO today! There are only 2 POMOs left and the next schedule will be released on the 10th.

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.

This is my tops and bottoms chart. Care to compare the indexes and indicators over a few years and see what they looked like when the major turns came? Here you go. This chart says very toppy and some sort of corrective is very due. Chart may be best viewed here. I call the larger blue wedge is the Ultimate Rigged Market Possibility. Note: When the Acum/Dist changes and whomever has been on the Acum side starts to dump (if there is anyone to dump to), look out. 

Not much to say or speculate on. Everything is absolutely horrific. The markets are rigged. We'll know the markets reaction to QEII tomorrow (I think it sill be mixed at first then sell off). Will this only be a corrective or the real deal? Only form will tell us. Impulsive selling with volume (possible flash crash) with MF and BD's playing will be necessary to get the markets really moving south. I am mostly concerned with the potential voting of a lame duck Congress.

To those of you that have not voted, get out and vote! Personally I will be voting for anyone that is not an incumbent. the only way to get change is to get the bought and paid for cronies (like Frank and Pelosi) out of office. They all have destroyed our nation via their servitude to the special interests. They all must go.

GL and have a good day.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

GDP was right on the number - SURPRISE. LOL, even Santelli says look for it to be revised downward these days. I'm sure he'll hear it from the boss this afternoon for that one (must follow propagandist rules).

My thoughts on the elections - 1) VOTE, get off your ass get out there and vote. Every vote matters. 2) I will personally be voting against every incumbent regardless of party (the Franks and Pelosis of the world MUST be removed from office if we want our country back).

Economic Calendar - GDP, PMI (9:45) and sentiment (9:55) today. Please ALWAYS check the calendar.

Earnings Calendar - Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - NO POMO today! There are only 3 POMOs left and the next schedule will be released on the 10th.

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.


One chart today - This is my cycle top/bottom chart. It has done pretty well so far and I'll stick with it till it breaks. Black box is what I am expecting as the pullback range and the red box indicating the next top is what I am suspecting at this time to be the final top if this is not it. We'll know by form of the fall (super heavy selling and basically total panic - the next flash crash) when the real top is set.

Other than one stumble last week, I have been spot on since the 1040 lows when Ben spoke of QEII consistently preaching of the powers of POMO, the "promise" of QEII and the fact that they can not let the markets go before the election (actually they can't let the markets go ever). Nothing big happens till the QEII announcement. I do believe there will be some sort of sell the news event, but how large is the question.

At this time I'm speculating the 1125 area as my primary target with a descent chance it could be worse than that. They will not let the markets fall significantly before the elections, but volatility should be in play as the few that are left participating in this rigged POS market jockey for position. THEN you have to think about the markets and the Xmas spending season. Can't have shoppers out there worrying about their retirement accounts. Then you have to think about the lame duck congress and what the hell they will try to ram thru before the EOY.

I hope everyone gets more treats than tricks this Saturday night. Lord knows it has been a few years full of tricks and sadly we have many more to come. Let's at least get a good sugar buzz on this Saturday night and enjoy it while we still can.

Thanks for the views, votes on Stockcharts and your support. Have a great weekend.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

I don't get it but I do get it. Market has every reason to be worried as hell, but the promise of QEII and the severe manipulation keep it afloat. When  you have trash like XLF Sets World Record In Quote Stuffing With 23.3 Quotes Per Millisecond happening. When JPM, HSBC Sued For Silver Market Manipulation, Reaping Billions In Illegal Profits and This Appears To Be Worthy of JAIL - RIGHT NOW are common place incidents that markets ignore, then things are so bad nothing really matters anymore.
 
Economic Calendar - GDP, PMI and sentiment tomorrow. Please ALWAYS check the calendar.

Earnings Calendar - Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - POMO today! There are only 3 POMOs left and the next schedule will be released on the 10th.

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.

Dollar/SPX correlation update - nothing has changed. 

Congrats to those long tech. Apparently AAPL's reduced margins to ONLY 36% was not all that bad. 

Minis 60m - after nice move south have taken back the wedge and fought back thru 81 resistance.

SPX 60m - apparently 20 to 30 points is all the SPX wants to give up these days on any pullback. Price will be back into the wedge after the open. See the minis chart above to see what to expect.

Yesterday I was not willing to go out on any limbs, and I am not going there today either. We are handcuffed till the elections and QEII are announced. Till then I will most likely not open my trading platform and remain idle. To me this is the prudent play. Even with the JPM silver suit the silver futures have not budged. Things are really screwy. I'll start doing some more detailed posts soon.

So, up we go on a POMO day with job losses still below the 400k range there is every reason to celebrate. Sorry I can't speculate on future moves. The big question is what happens on the QEII announcement and if any of the foreclosuregate or myriad of other horrific financial news can actually effect the markets. Sell the news? I think we'll get that. How big a move? Depends on POMO and how aggressive the selling gets. With insiders leaving in droves, I would assume that this charade will not last much longer.

GL out there and thanks for the views and support.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Not much to say. Pressure on the markets is evident. Overbought? Shuh, the daily chart is now screaming sell me, but POMO persists and so do the HFT bots. The promise of QEII and the elections should keep things in check the rest of this week. One more POMO day tomorrow and some large economic numbers remain (Jobs and GDP) this week.

Economic Calendar - Loaded with data all week. Please check the calendar.

Earnings Calendar - XOM before the bell tomorrow. Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - NO POMO today! There are only 3 POMOs left and the next schedule will be released on the 10th.

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.

SPX daily - Divergences are clear and so is the wedge that is clearly consolidating and ending.

SPX 60m - Closer look at the wedge ending and consolidating with diverging indicators. The possible HnS formation with the blue neckline is something I am keeping an eye on. Got GAPS?

Not going out on any limbs today as I simply have to wait on QEII and the elections to come next week. The markets want to pull back and there is no POMO today. Looking for the wedge to break at the open, but not getting to excited about any massive breakdown quite yet. I suspect the top is set at this point. Possibly some weakness to the 65 area and then a move up to the red diagonal to set the right shoulder on the QEII announcement. After that we can then talk about a big breakdown.

Now about that big breakdown, will it only be a corrective or the real thing? At this time I have no clue and the form of the fall will be the tell. we're either in P2 (still going up) or P3 (still crashing). Given the extension of this move in time and price I'm leaning to still in P2 bull phase. Form, form, form of the fall will tell us what is happening. Market manipulation and the lack of the market's ability to take any of this fanatically bad news seriously (cause all of retail has abandoned the market and bots are running the show now) is quite astounding. As I have been saying for a long long time, it is going to take a serious event or catalyst to rip this market form "their" control. The markets are all they have left between then and anarchy. What you are seeing in France will be here in 2011.

Hang in there. Another week or 10 days and we'll know what to do. GL and have a great day.