Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Gold hits 1366. Do you buy here or not? Like Dirty Harry, "Do ya feel lucky?" Well, if you, "gots ta know", sorry, there is no answer to if gold has any bullets left in the chamber, but one thing is for sure, gold is the 44 magnum aimed at your head from 5 feet away and if it should turn it will blow your portfolio "kleeeeen off".  I'm still voting for a pullback. Is it deserved? Hell no, but some sort of intervention (if still possible and they have not let price control slip thru their fingers like some greasy chicken bone) may still be possible. With bullshit like this Is HR3808 The Equivalent Of TARP 2 And Obama's "Get Out Of Bail" Gift Card For The High Frequency Signing Scandal? and this 22nd Weekly Outflow From Mutual Funds and this you can no longer discern reality from the Matrix.

Economic Calendar - Natgas at 10:30, Consumer credit at 3:00 and apparently the Employment Situation report is supposed to be some sort of surprise in the morning after ADP and jobs today?

Earnings Calendar -AA after the bell and then not much till Tuesday with INTC.

Pivot Points - Like they make a difference?

POMO Schedule - No Mo POMO That does not mean they are gonna send the PPT packing. "The next release of the approximate purchase amount and tentative outright Treasury operation schedule will be at 2 p.m. on October 13, 2010. "

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.



If you did not see my SPX Descending Triangle Possibility post below give it a look. 

In the land of unicorns and fairy tales anything is possible till you wake up from the dream. This dream will be disturbed one day, and it won't be from some "visitors" coming to give you an anal probe. Nah, this is gonna be more like Hellraiser coming to possess your ass for eternity.Nothing is real anymore and if you think things are getting better, you are sorely mistaken. We're on the Event Horison of the great toilet bowl black hole in the sky.

Here is the chart. If I am lucky we JUST topped on the minis and the disaster can begin now. Of course this is stupid as shit, cause the simple promise of QE II will ramp the newly mandated SPX/Gold correlation  to infinity. Of course the fact that we'll be our own largest debt holder in a month or two taking Japan out is simply the biggest fucking joke ever. This is so stupid.

Anyway, if I should get lucky and we are near some sort of top (The minis may just have) here we go.

GL out there. I sell survival seeds on the right if you think you may need some.

SPX Descending Triangle Possibility

Not sure how to go about this given the promise of QE II, falsified earnings and market manipulation. Let's just assume they will not ramp the market from here and POMO wont be back till sometime in 2014.

Descending Triangle Continuation What Stockcharts shows is this chart and has this description, "The descending triangle is a bearish formation that usually forms during a downtrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when descending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of an uptrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, descending triangles are bearish patterns that indicate distribution."






I got to looking at the SPX long term and came up with this. If (somehow) we top here, QEII is a dud and we get some sort of catalyst that will keep the Fed funding from pumping the HFT bots; this hair brained idea might actually work. Bottom line is this is a possibility, and I had to throw it out there. I'm only willing to speculate to the end of this move and no further at this time. The other options that exist that are not charted are 1) a ramp to 15,000 as QE to infinity could be in play, or 2) the market simply implodes and disintegrates to dust as it rightfully should.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

It is a POMO day. The last one on this schedule. I'm not really sure what to say anymore as the markets have become more predictable than Barry behind a teleprompter. Bad news, bad earnings it does not matter, hell we could have a nuke go off somewhere in the US and the markets would fucking rally because they are fucking rigged and running solely on the promise of QEII. I'm due for a good rant. I'll save the rest of the bitching for the post market.

Economic Calendar - ADP Plunges To -39K, Well Below Expectations Of +20K

Earnings Calendar - MON surprisingly missed by a mile. PEP after hours and AA in the AM.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - Today is the last day of QE Lite. That does not mean they are gonna send the PPT packing. "The next release of the approximate purchase amount and tentative outright Treasury operation schedule will be at 2 p.m. on October 13, 2010. "

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.


Does it really matter what the charts say anymore? (NO). Do fundamentals matter? (NO) As long as the Fed and treasury are monetizing debt and funneling those funds to support the markets, as long as trading and liquidity are a farce, as long as they continue to devalue the dollar (yes, I think it will have a 4 handle before it is all over and will lose its precious gold standard of currency status) and as long as the SEC do not enforce any rules the manipulators are running the asylum.







Minis 1m - here is the markets reaction to a dismal APD number and a MON miss - 6 points! WOW! Is the world coming to an end? A 60k miss and that's it? All that matters now is the promise of unlimited amounts of the Oxycodone market elixir otherwise known as QE II.






I have now been reduced to two morning forecasts -

Reality - The promise of QE II is now everything. DOW 11,000 is just around the corner. Expect that to be hit and held thru the election and for all the bells and whistles to go off as they try and sucker all the trillions out of gold back into the markets. POMO ramps are real and can not be disputed.

Fantasy - I would have called a top yesterday or today under normal market conditions. C=A, possible black channel formation and price consolidating in the top of the wedge for a E touch or a backtest (depending on where the real support line is) with overbought blow off conditions all make for a lovely top. This should be ending the ABC 2nd wave of 2 of 1 of P3 and the fall today or tomorrow should be really interesting as the third wave kicks off. 940 SPX target with a backtest of the old bear market resistance line in late October should be the target.  HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. That's funny - fugedaboutit!

QE II rules. It is all about manipulation. Pay not attention to gold at 1351 or silver at 23. Oil on a 10 point ramp int he last two weeks, no beg deal. The dollar? Yen? Employment? Debt? 100 year bonds? Shall I continue? This market has no business being where it is and when it falls it will look like an implosion falling at the speed of gravity.As for me, I'll continue trading the only reliable time frames (1 and 5m chart) and waiting on my catalyst. We'll all know when to get out. It will be painfully obvious. For those of you waiting to short, keep waiting. Don't worry about nailing the top. You'll have plenty of time to get in on the action.As I used to say - Konichiwa bitches! welcome to the new Japan (and that is being optimistic).



GL out there.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

POMO DAY!!! Nuff said right there. Yes, we're in deep shit cause throwing trillions more at the problem and currency manipulation seem to be their last ditch best efforts to solve this crisis. No one has the balls to step up to the plate and take their medicine. I have a feeling their hand will be forced sooner than later.

Economic Calendar - Non mfg ISM at 10. ADP tomorrow is the biggie and then Thursday ( with no POMO) the action begins.

Earnings Calendar - YUM after the bell and MON in the morning. Also PEP and AA are the big names this week as things get kicked off. Let the farce begin!

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - Tuesday and Wednesday end QE Lite. "The next release of the approximate purchase amount and tentative outright Treasury operation schedule will be at 2 p.m. on October 13, 2010. "

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.


Two days of POMO and earnings season is kicking off. Data on Wednesday and Thursday will have potential to move the markets. 10/13 the Fed announces the next POMO schedule, which may be hard to do before the next FOMC meeting on the 1st and 2nd. 11/03 will be a big day as well with the FOMC notes and the election. Currency wars are the in thing now if you are into the financial thing. Sounds geeky (and I personally would never go with it), but it it a terribly powerful thing that desperate nations play when they are facing sure fire insolvency issues and have no plans for their debt crisis other than pulling demand forward. Let me see, what happens when you print trillions upon trillions and eventually become your own largest holder of your own debt? Folks, that is some scary shit right there and what your government has allowed the Fed to do. It would be called End Game where I come from.


SPX Weekly - (best viewed HERE) OK, this sucker is looking ripe especially when you combine it with the daily chart. BUT, but, but POMO and the promise of QE II can be a buzz kill if you are a bear. Is QE II priced in? Is a overhaul in DC priced in? (I encourage you to vote and to vote for all non-incumbents - makes it easy). TARP II? Currency devaluation? Bottom line is this sucker is struggling and that upper BB is proving to be a tough nut to crack. The ramp today is not like it was in April. The bulls have a tougher road to hoe as economic conditions are toughening as more truth about the struggling global economy comes out every day. A month ago when we were battling 1040 I put that pink box on the chart as a potential target. then Shalom spoke and with his breath (and the promise of QE II raised the markets from the dead - and sunk the dollar). I left it there, cause it is still a possibility. That is how quickly this puppy will fall when it goes I believe.

SPX Daily - indicators all red AT THIS TIME. With the futures up 9 at this time and two POMO days and some October earnings witchcraft you never know what they can do to price these days.

Sorry (again) that I can not commit to one side or the other. The charts look better every day for the bears. I waited patiently on the daily MACD to come home and the indicators are all red on that chart now. In "normal" conditions I'd be balls deep short at this time, but with all the conditions I have been harping on for a month now, you can not commit to either side at this time. The bulls struggled with 1130 and are now with 1150. The bears have finally shown up to stop the run and are fighting back. The range is 58 to 30 at this time. My target up is near 75 and first target below 30 is the 200dma at 18. the only plays I am making now are scalps on the 1 and 5m MACD crosses. POMO ends Wednesday and the data on Thursday could be a big market mover. Let's be patient and see what transpires there.


GL and have a great day!

Rinse/Repeat

I'm not all that motivated to write. Actually my post market posts have been declining over the past month. I believe I am suffering "POMO Burnout" or "Manipulation Aggravation". Maybe this is the intended feeling Shalom wants among the bears. He's grinding the ball down the field 2.6 yards per play and converting every 4th down. Or for you golfers (sorry American team), you whip your opponent from tee to green all day, but your opponent consistently cans those 60 footers and has a chip in every other hole. In the real world those games would come with rules and the results would be achieved and not contrived. They would wear on your nerves, but they would be legal and part of the game. In this investment game the bears (or realists as they should be called) are getting pencil whipped, and there ain't nothing worse than losing to a cheater.

Zero Hedge has Rosie In Myth-Debunking Mode Again  which will help clear my personal issues up a little, but I'm not having problems identifying the falsehoods of the markets and the corruptness of the system. That is where my aggravation is coming from. Rosie points out 5 nice fallacies you'd hear on CNBS multiple times daily. My favorite is that we'll have $95 of earnings next year. "Here’s the rub: to get that $95 operating EPS for 2011, we either need to see at least 7% nominal GDP growth, which last happened in 1989 when inflation was 5%, not close to zero, or margins manage to reach new all-time highs. We won't entirely rule this out, but will give it 1-in-25 odds of occurring. All we can say is that the base case is for low single-digit nominal growth and some margin compression so frankly we could be looking at something closer to a $75 earnings stream next year. Moreover, when one slaps on a 10x multiple on that — consistent with the economic uncertainty commensurate with a post-bubble deleveraging cycle — then getting to 750 at some point in the S&P 500 is not at all out of the question."

Mich does a bit more extensive analysis of the SPX profit revision in Analysts Cut S&P 500 Profits Forecast; Earnings Estimates Still Overly Optimistic; Stocks Not Cheap. Mish fires all the guns at once with,"It's important to understand why earnings have gone up: Trillions of dollars of stimulus worldwide that is not sustainable. Bank earnings estimates have been inflated by massive extend-and-pretend games encouraged by the Fed with a blind eye from the FASB. Moreover, the FASB has delayed mark-to-market accounting rules and has still not forced banks to bring SIVs and off-balance-sheet assets back on the books. Those assets are held at inflated values. It is disgusting to hear those like Michael Levine of OppenheimerFunds Inc. says "equities are cheap". Equities only look cheap if you use absurd forward earnings estimates, and ignore future writeoffs and other "one-time" items that seem to have a way of recurring with remarkable regularity."

Rosie said 750 SPX? Hell, I guess that is conservative as Mish's buddy "BC" pens, "Growth of bank loans, final sales, and thus GDP and corporate earnings will have decelerated from the 6-7% secular bull and long-term trend to 4% by 2020. The implication for stock prices given the tendency for the P/E to contract and earnings to track GDP is for the SPX to fall to the 300s-400s at some point." in Long-Wave, Fixed Investment, Inventory, and Demographic Cycles all Downwardly Converging. Mish immediately dismisses that number as not a prediction, but adds his thoughts with, "The S&P 500 certainly could fall that low. Moreover, were it to do so, it would be consistent with the convergence of the various cycles as described above, and it would also be consistent with Japan's Two Lost Decades."

To add to my frustration, most everything market related you hear from the MSM is a half truth or spun so badly it makes you cuss at your TV every time a talking head spews propaganda for their sugar daddy. In case you did not know who controls all 900 stations on your boob tube here is a nice listing from The Economic Collapse in Who Owns The Media? The 6 Monolithic Corporations That Control Almost Everything We Watch, Hear And Read. "Fortunately, an increasing number of Americans are starting to wake up and are realizing that the mainstream media should not be trusted. According to a new poll just released by Gallup, the number of Americans that have little to no trust in the mainstream media (57%) is at an all-time high."

I have basically qualified and quantified a portion of my frustrations in this post even without addressing Brian Sack's double speak referring what the Fed will or it won't do with QEII (here and here).  ARGHHHHHH! This is just nuts! S&P earnings may as well be orbiting the former planet Pluto and the Fed is printing trillions pulling demand forward all while destroying the dollar and driving rates to near historical lows, yet QE Lite continues to drive the markets up. Lord knows the market can remain irrational longer than we all can remain solvent, and at this pace that is what will happen as all the funds wind up in the TBTF's coffers (I have a feeling they will be trying to convert those funds to gold sooner than later).

As a technical guy running this and my market timing blog, I get a lot of strange looks calling POMO ramps in the face of Armageddon. I walked the April top up, and I've been begrudgingly walking this one up as well. It is so frustrating when you have a busted rigged market that has become as predictable as your government's next round of double speak or the next round of FASB/SEC rules changes to further benefit the flailing special interest donors. Battling the double speak and "promise" of QE or TARP II  is grinding on my nerves (and I'm positive this is what they want). The bears will be right. 700 or 300 SPX of 5,000 or 1,000 DOW are in the cards. We'll get there faster than most thing since the SEC has apparently done nothing to avoid the next flash crash cause any such actions would curb the bots ability to HFT in an effective manner. Lord knows we can't have the gravy train of ripoffs succumbed.

Pick any Eric Cartman saying from this soundboard and apply it to wherever your imagination likes. It will make you feel better (for a minute), and then give a warm hearty welcome to earnings season where REPO 105 has most likely been initiated by the banks to allow their solvency to appear rosy as ever. Me, I'll be gnawing something and trying to maintain poise as they test my limits yet again. We've been there, done that and got the T-shirt, so patiently we'll continue to trade the only reliable time frames (1 and 5m charts to the VWAP)  waiting on my LEH type catalyst to show up where we can jump in with both feet.

Thanks for the views and have a great evening.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

What? Everything else is in a bubble, ya think they are gonna go all DEFCON Orange on us again and put us back in the terror alert bubble as well? This is nothing new and has been either seen coming for months or it will be some sort of false flag event to boost Barry and his pals going into election season. One thing is for sure, that these major recessions have all ended in a war. May be this will be a nice little spark if it happens. It better be a doozie if they are gonna top 9/11. Building what?

Economic Calendar - 10:00 Factory orders and pending home sales. Big week for data this week.

Earnings Calendar - YUM, MON, PEP and AA are the big names this wee as things get kicked off.

Pivot Points -


POMO Schedule - Tuesday and Wednesday end QE Lite and then on the 13th we get the big news if they plan on extending it. 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.

SPX Daily - Not much to say. I speculate it is still rolling over. With earnings season upon us market prognosticating will be even tougher over the next two to three weeks. REPO 105 and all those HFT frontrunning trading profits should help the TBTF's. This chart looks rather toppy. I can't rule out one more shot to 75, but it should be highly doubtful without a corrective first.

SPX 60m -As we have been discussing here for several weeks now, the questions of the pricing in of QE II (and now possibly TARP II) must be raised. It is possible that QE Lite has been trying to get everyone to "believe" all is well in the land of rainbows and unicorns, but that is highly doubtful as the global financial system is abandoning the US faster now than Barry's losing supporters. This chart is very toppy as well. Did we have the blow off top to 1158? Will it actually correct?

MSFT downgrade, terror alert, foreclosure mess, you name it, it's all beginning to fall apart at a faster pace now (as expected). We're getting closer to my LEH type catalyst that will finally cripple the elites and bring this whole charade crashing down. It will be very interesting to see what type of earnings fraud they come up with this quarter. Tuesday and Wednesday are POMO days, so we all know what that means. I suspect when it finally falls everyone will know it. It will be plain as the nose on your face. Just be ready with powder dry. Flash II will be coming to a market near you soon.

GL and have a great week. Congrats to my Braves for limping in but making the playoffs.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Welcome to Q4. Not much to say this AM. Just kinda frustrated and agitated at the whole farce. I highly suggest you view Rep. Grayson's video on foreclosure fraud. This may be the catalyst that finally throws open the curtain hiding the man pulling the knobs. For those of you that continue to buy and have faith in the "data" provided from your socialist masters need to see this Charting Statistical Fraud At The BLS: 22 Out Of 23 Consecutive Upward Revisions In Initial Jobless Claims.


Economic Calendar -

Earnings Schedule - It gets ramped up next week.

POMO Schedule - None today - Next are October 5th and 6th. Between now and the next FOMC meeting the biggest announcement will most likely be the release of the Fed's next POMO playbook on 10/13. That will be a key day to watch. 


Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call the intraday action

SPX daily - You can't deny that the wedge is ending and the markets are overbought on a daily basis. The old bear market resistance line (black dashed) got dusted back in November of last year. I think this line will be back in play eventually. The new bear market resistance (red) line is just above. Last November it crossed the resistance line after a ramp and then remained range bound for a month.

SPX daily - Indicators are overbought and can turn at any moment, but as we all have witnessed in the face of POMO (only two left next week and then the new schedule is released on the 13th) and various other tactics the Fed uses Overbought means nothing. 

I have not called a top. Yes, we may be topping near term for a corrective or I will miss this one, but I think they extend it somehow despite the wedge and the 58 top. No, I have not partaken in the CNBS kool-aide but I am a firm believer that it will not fall without a catalyst and they will do anything they can to keep it afloat thru the elections.

I have a target box on my weekly chart that basically runs mid-Oct to mid-Dec and has SPX 940 at it's heart. the last time I laid out a target box I did it a week before the April top and basically called a one month 220 point fall and nailed it. Can it happen again? I have not posted that target box here yet, so it remains unofficial. Bottom line is if we get a catalyst it will collapse.

Not speculating on the markets today. No POMO and the bears have been doing fairly well limiting the bulls push. Economic data was fair at best this AM. Jobs and GDP are not getting ignored for the most part. I believe we're in a a wait and see more churn to continue mode in some sort of topping price action. Let's just be patient and let the market show its hand. It will. Yes the wedge may be topping here and the top at 57 may have been set, but I can't call it yet.

GL out there and have a great weekend.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Shit or get. That's about all you can say about today. EU falling apart is a fantastic reason to come off the sidelines and pile into the equity markets. Hell, the minis fell to 1134 last night. What a great opportunity. Jobs are just fine as we still ONLY lose just shy of a HALF A MILLION a week and GDP under 2 should be praised. 21st Sequential Weekly Outflow Confirms Investors Refuse To Be Suckered Into Stock Market means all is well in the land of rainbows and unicorns.

Economic Calendar - GDP and Jobs better than expected! To bad the dollar is in the shitter. Initial Claims Come at 453K, While Prior Print Is Revised Higher, As 300K Claimants Fall Of Benefits

Earnings Schedule - Next week it gets cranked up. Repo 105 anyone?

POMO Schedule - Today!

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action and provide even more charting.

SPX 60m - It is just way too obvious for them to let it fall.

SPX - Dollar comparison. Wagging the tail. With the dollar headed where it is headed and gold going where it is going all you can do is shake your heads at the POMO supported EQ markets.

Got this in an email this morning - Your fearless leader(s?). I'm not sure if she would melt or not, but I'm positive Pelosi would.

Three options - 1) I'm still leaning to a zig-zag to the mid 70's after a slight corrective. 2) If not it may pop to the 58 to 64 range and then just collapse. 3) Puke up a lung here. EU falling apart but the dollar is weaker than the EUR. That makes a lot of sense doesn't it? Something smells fishy here. Bottom line is that says the whole world has no faith in the US or Ben has pushed the dollar deflation button and can't make it stop. Gold has hit my 1310 target. Financials are not participating in the rally. Quarter ends today. POMO today and only two left on the schedule next week on the 5th and 6th.

Form of the fall will be everything. What price does at the 200dma at 1117 and the 38 to 50% retracement area between 08 and 97 will be the key (if they let it get there). POMO runs next week and then they have none scheduled. They turn it over to earnings where I'm sure REPO 105 is in play for all the banks now, FASB rules have been trashed and the SEC will be doing whatever it is they do these days. When the top is in we will all know because there will be some serious impulse selling with everyone headed for the gates at once.

I'm still looking for my catalyst. Will the GMAC/JPM foreclosure issue lead to it? Ireland is crumbling (with the rest of the PIIGS soon to follow). They have been warning of immanent terrorist attacks (uh..hello..red flag event?). Something is going to hit that will cause them to lose control. What if it has hit? What if this devaluing of the dollar is telling the story? What if the world sees things just a clearly as we do here at Shanky's  Blog where we all know we're headed to hell in a hand basket and will be living in a socialist state in a short while? Either way, the writing is on the wall and it is only a matter of time before the USA has it's national day of austerity strikes like they had in the EU yesterday.

Market is to uncertain to make any calls today especially with Shalom speaking at 10:30. I'm assuming that since the GDP and jobs surprises did their jobs (with POMO in the wings) and he can now switch to speech B where all is well pump can further inflate the SPX/TNX ratio. We have the elections coming and they can't have any disruptions this month. the promise of QEII and NOW possibly TARP II. Bears, hang in there. the hangover form this levitation act is gonna be pure hell for the bulls.

GL!