Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Minis have gotten decimated pretty much since 3:00am falling from 1098 to 1089. That is not normal. To add fuel to the fire Retail Sales Down 0.5% Versus Expectations Of -0.3%, Auto Sales Plunge 2.3%. (I forgot to mention Mortgage Applications Sink To 13 Year Low) We're at a time where you have to ask if you can see the forest for the trees? The data rolling in is really pathetic (especially since we've wasted roughly $25 trillion or so on what?). Earnings on the other hand are fabricated bullshit compared to estimates provided by buy side analysts that work for the greedy bastards that derive their income from sales of the products they are pumping. Will the truth be washed out? Maybe not this quarter, but in a coming quarter for sure. the great consumer is dead and the machine will eventually lock up and die. We just have to bide our time here.


Earnings Calendar -

Economic Calendar - Petrol at 10:30

Divergences on the 30m charts are almost out of hand at this time. What has actually happened is the last divergence got blown out and now we're in what I would call a double divergence state. Now, that said I'm still not all that bearish. Two reasons, 1) strength in the daily indicators and 2) manipulation and earnings driven emotional news to drive the market as the Ponzi/fraud scam rolls on.The VIX also looks like it could get a nice green pop here with some nice indicators strength, a big reversal candle and bouncing off of support.

SPX 30m - So based on the daily charts, earnings bullshit, the suppression of the truth, the MSM pump and many other factors I'm gonna go out on a limb and call this move here a corrective within this corrective. A 'B' wave so to speak initially. Form will tell us what is going on and if I am right or not. One thing that is for sure is when this bad boy rolls over for real we'll be in deep shit. If we get a fall here the 65/60 area should be it. I could speculate highs as large as 1140 for this run but I'm not going there. The RUT makes this ABC case the best I think. So, I follow the 30m chart to the bottom and buy again. Note in the chart below the double divergence. the forst one on July 8/9 that got ignored (stomped basically) and that turned into a larger divergence (with an even smaller one) formed late yesterday. Minis have retraced all the way under the VWAP at this time. 

GL!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

UPDATE - Yellow line on RUT (which was leading the fall and is now playing catch up in the recovery) and the gap fill are not far off. Sadly that is an enormously bullish candle. That can to be ignored.

UPDATE - About to puke up a lung? Again another ugly chart (this is one of my "work charts" - I have charts everywhere) Bloe resistance diagonal above price just like on the minis. Retracements and resistance in the 1105 area coming. 220ma daily coming. THE BAD NEWS IS if this cracks with conviction it may have to be considered a breakout. the dailys still have plenty of room to run. I am looking to short, but have not pulled the trigger. I am horrified at the potential for more upside. News driven, emotional trading, HFT bots and the manipulators working their pump and dump scheme to perfection while FINRA and the SEC do nothing.

UPDATE - Minis approaching resistance line. Chart is ugly as hell I know, but just look at the green line. Price came within a point and reversed. This could bode well for the bears. 30m is at upper VWAP band, out of the upper BB and a retrace to the VWAP near 1076 should be in order.The fib is not there, but the 38% retrace of the whole move from the 1216 top was 1084. The 62% retrace from the 1130 top was 1081. This double fib confluence and the TL were the reason for my initial target (given on the SPX of 1090). A break of this would be very bullish IMO. Yes this is a 4hr chart and that is a divergence in the indicators. the run may be done for now. We'll have to see. If it is not, then any buying from here will be quickly eradicated upon the next turn.

AA scams a beat and INTC among others on deck today. Minis were down when I went to bed at midnight last night. Glad to see the 'ol morning ramps are back. they are up 10 at this time. Not sure why, but I'm guessing it has something to do with bots, algos and super low volume overnight.

Earnings Calendar - Pay attention to it. INTC and JPM in the morning.

Economic Calendar - Know it!Thursday is gonna be really screwy with all the earnings and econ reports.

My initial target of 1090 is just a few points away. It is up to the daily chart now. Screw the others. Sure, I will still rely on the 30m for trading direction ST, but we're at the mercy of the daily chart now. RSI5 is getting overbought, so that says the bulk of the run should be over, but the run is not necessarily ending. RSI14 is stalled at the 50 line. That is a common point for reversals. Bottom line is there is room to climb. the market was horrendously oversold NT. The manipulators are back at the wheel, but don;t fret bears, your dat is coming soon. If my 1090 target is taken out then we have to look up to my second posted target of 1111 a test of the 200ma.

Looking at INTC

10 year chart -  Let's look at INTC - First let's look at a chart going back to 2001. The only thing I want you to notice is the range and the upper TL that is providing some solid resistance. A 10 year trend is something to note. Can you say range bound and lack of performance?

Here is a shorter 60m chart. Looks like a breakout to me. If it goes nuts looks like 22.11 is the number with the gap, the 62% retracement and that red TL. I think it is virtually guaranteed it will not go over 23.80 cause that is the 10yr resistance line. the 30m chart has been overbought for a week now.

GL!

When The Non-believers Finally Convert

Yup, thee is still a group that is adamant that this is a V shaped recovery and that the worst is well behind us. Well, to those sheeple still smoking the green shoots I say 'good luck' cause I'm on the other side of that trade. Global financial default is coming if a massive war does not hit first. The world will not look the same after this debacle ends.

First let's simply address the potential possibility of virtual guarantee of global default. My readers know that I have been calling this as the only solution to this enormous fraud/ponzi credit bubble since the early days of this blog. Zero Hedge has EFSF: Germany's Plan Is Sovereign Default NOT Bailout where you get, "With that in mind German officials seem to have made their move and are pushing what amounts to a bank bailout/sovereign default plan on the lines of what we have seen in places like Argentina rather than a straight sovereign bailout." You see also in Berlin Pushing For European Bankruptcy Framework With Provision For State Sovereignty Give Up  the talk of default is REAL. The Germans have so far been the best a attempting to avoid the Weimar Republic moves that Fed Ben and Turbo Timmahhh  have been pushing so generously down our throats. Seems at least someone studied and learned from their great depression better than Ben did.

You see even our government is thinking Obama's debt commission warns of fiscal 'cancer'. That is pretty screwed up if you ask me, but the administration never seems to worry as they just have the Fed print more money and they continuously change the accounting rules so the corporations don;t have to pay any taxes and they put the burden solely on our backs. "Bowles said that unlike the current economic crisis, which was largely unforeseen before it hit in fall 2008, the coming fiscal calamity is staring the country in the face. "This one is as clear as a bell," he said. "This debt is like a cancer."

Maybe someone is reading Denninger (and all the others I frequently post here) and getting their facts straight (finally). I have posted Do the Math and other references to how none of this adds up. Well, thanks to Karl, we have a concise summary (with pictures) that explains how failure and default WILL eventually come our way - no way around it.In Krugman's Insanity, And The Hard Mathematical Truth Karl takes the gloves off and provides the indisputable truth mathematically of how we can not escape this horrible mess we're in.

And since we know none of these recession/depressions would be complete without a war to top the cake you get this - Fidel Castro to appear on Cuban television and radio where he discusses, "discuss his theory that the world is on the verge of nuclear war". Well, someone has to say it. Rich Cash provided this ominous link to me today that will make the hair on the back of your neck stand up If Israel Attacks Iran In July 2010... 

Race card? Michelle Obama Rouses NAACP Before Vote Condemning 'Racist' Elements of Tea Party - I will not comment on this story as I am sure my internet handler would not appreciate what I have to say. I will say that when you use the likes of ACORN and felons voting illegally to win elections (not to mention many other potential abuses) then the desperation of the power grab becomes obvious. So go rally the NAACP and it's hoards of Democrats willing to extend unemployment benefits to infinity and to allow everyone on food stamps and welfare to get their 50 inch plasmas. Nothing good will come from this. We must find a common ground or we will never solve this enormous mess we're in. The free ride/gravy train is over for everyone (yes, that means the tea party people as well). Get that thru your thick skulls. Not just you, the underprivileged, but for ALL of us. The economy is dead, and we're in debt above our heads. We ALL are going to have to make serious sacrifices. We ALL are going to have to contribute. We ALL are going to have to make sacrifices. The entitlement state is dead. Racism can not stand. there is no place for that. but don't frame the whole movement for the few that are rude. AND MOSTLY don't ban or control free speech cause we want to complain loudly (as long as appropriate language is used) about the crappy job Barry is doing. That is our right and not a racist act.

GL and thanks for the views.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Earnings season. Will it surprise or finally succumb?

Earnings Calendar -AA after hours and then INTC and YUM tomorrow. Thursday is the big day with JPM and the financials getting things kicked off.

Be careful is all I have to say. There really is not telling as to what the numbers will be and or how the guidance is gonna come. Will the financials be the primary drivers? Lots of questions, so I advise caution.

SPX 30m is loaded with divergences, but it also ran thru one last week. NASDAQ and RUT still have large gaps above that may want to get filled as the other major indexes have covered theirs. My target was 1090 for this run and a second of 1111.

GL!

Examples Of Our Socialist State

UPDATE-  Gonna get some charting done this weekend and see what I come up with. Bottom line is even with the massive divergences pointing down, the markets can not be trusted. AA kicks off earnings Monday after the bell, so without any (really terrible) news and if AA surprises, who knows, with all the accounting changes and rules violations that go unpunished, what king of numbers they will come up with? I ecomend the sidelines unless a clear trend is given.

GL and enjoy your weekend.

UPDATE - Dig this one -

http://www.prisonplanet.com/mark-of-the-beast-rears-its-head-in-pennsylvania.html


Look, things are out of control and we all know it. We know austerity measures are coming globally, wars are most likely inevitable and we can be guaranteed the MSM will be controlling your news feed to supplant the governments agenda so we all remain calm and orderly while being raped by the banksters and Wall St. desperate times deserve desperate measures. We all know in the (more recent) words of Rham that a crisis is a terrible thing to waste cause you can impose your will on those in desperation. So impose they shall.

From the light side of the spectrum we get S.F. considers banning sale of pets except fish. MMMkay? So local governments (Pelosi's neighborhood I'm guessing) are going to impose their will on what we can and can not sell. I get them challenging mary jane sales but pets? Why? ""People buy small animals all the time as an impulse buy, don't know what they're getting into, and the animals end up at the shelter and often are euthanized," said commission Chairwoman Sally Stephens. "That's what we'd like to stop." OK, so people waste things and that sin needs to be stopped. Well, I have to ask, if they ban the sales of pets for these insane reasons, then what will they be banning next? This is out of control behavior by desperate people looking in the wrong place for a solution to a larger problem.

Talk about desperate people, how bout our own US Government looking for solutions to pay off the debt. Dig this (emphasis mine), "One idea for raising taxes to pay down the debt is the bill introduced this February by Rep. Chaka Fattah (D-Pa.). His “Debt Free America Act” (H.R. 4646) would impose a 1 percent “transaction tax” on every financial transaction — whether paid by cash, credit card or any form of financial transfer, the only exception being transactions involving the purchase or sale of stock. Theoretically, everyone would pay one cent on the dollar for every such transaction in America every day — whether $3 million on a $300 million business acquisition, $300 on the purchase of a $30,000 car, or $5 on a $500 ATM withdrawal" 

Did you catch that? They are proposing a 1% transaction tax that will include taking money out of an ATM! Fuck, what's next here a wipe ass charge of 1 cent per sheet of toilet paper? This tax will also apply to over the counter transactions as well. As Ace and others pointed out in the comments section of last night's post the banks have no money anyway and people are beginning to hoard cash. Go try and withdraw $20k and see what they come up with? They have imposed withdrawal limits in times of stress to prevent run protect the banks. The control of the money supply will can is another measure of the socialist agenda that they will be able to use to control our actions. It has been speculated by the conspiracy theorists that when we go to a cashless society and you have your national ID card with THE chip in it, they will be able to control everything you buy or withdraw at the push of a button. that is something worth thinking about. 

In U.S. Plans Cyber Shield for Utilities, Companies Big Brother comes alive in the name of national security. I have written a lot about homeland security and the patriot act and how those new programs are being used to invade your privacy. We've gotten used to the cameras on the streets and now come the 'cameras' on the internet. I agree that cyber security is an important measure we must maintain, but if that were to ever be used against 'us' then that would be a large problem. I don't trust any of them as these 'defense' projects tend to become larger surveillance initiatives that further disrupt and limit our freedoms. ""The overall purpose of the [program] is our Government...feel[s] that they need to insure the Public Sector is doing all they can to secure Infrastructure critical to our National Security," said one internal Raytheon email, the text of which was seen by The Wall Street Journal. "Perfect Citizen is Big Brother.""

A glaring problem of government control can be found in Ex-Official Accuses Justice Department of Racial Bias in Black Panther Case. What happened? "The department abandoned the New Black Panther case last year. It stemmed from an incident on Election Day in 2008 in Philadelphia, where members of the party were videotaped in front of a polling place, dressed in military-style uniforms and allegedly hurling racial slurs while one brandished a night stick." From the post I am reading that these were Obama supporters or at least attempting asking scaring the hell out of voters to get their message across and who not to vote for. "The Bush Justice Department brought the first case against three members of the group, accusing them in a civil complaint of violating the Voter Rights Act. The Obama administration initially pursued the case, winning a default judgment in federal court in April 2009 when the Black Panther members did not appear in court. But then the administration moved to dismiss the charges the following month after getting one of the New Black Panther  members to agree to not carry a "deadly weapon" near a polling place until 2012." read into the Black Panther case what you will, but this stinks to high heaven to me and sends a message that I hear as "If you are one of Obama's militants you can get away with anything". Scary stuff. 

And one final issue (strange, but I have tried this edit THREE times and blogger has rejected the edit, so I am not sure if I am supposed to post this - Mr./Mrs. Government Handler, I get the message.) Did you know that there are Racial, Gender Quotas in the Financial Bill? Yup, "In addition to this bill's well-publicized plans to establish over a dozen new financial regulatory offices, Section 342 sets up at least 20 Offices of Minority and Women Inclusion. This has had no coverage by the news media and has large implications." Which means that, "Each office would have its own director and staff to develop policies promoting equal employment opportunities and racial, ethnic, and gender diversity of not just the agency's workforce, but also the workforces of its contractors and sub-contractors." Which means that if you own a business or work in anything that remotely touches the financial industry you will now be subject to these quotas. Ya think this will have an effect? Just another government mandate imposing it's will on your rights and freedoms cause they think this will benefit "the whole system".

And how can we end a socialist state post without some documentation of what's happening with the oil spill. I'm sure you remember my post where I found tar balls, emulsified oil and my feet burned for a day after simply walking on the beach for 5 minutes. I saw the hazmat teams and families swimming 50 yards from them. All while the government was saying that conditions were safe and no harm would be brought to you for coming and spending your vacation dollars at the beach. Well, as I have warned many, looks can be deceiving. ZH has Samples Confirm Corexit Ingredients In Gulf Spill Area Far Above Toxic Concentrations "In short, the Gulf is being poisoned by BP's usage of the dispersants even after the EPA asked them to stop back in May." Of course we all know about the bleached sand and topping beaches with fresh sand, right? Maybe the fact that Over 1,500 oil cleanup workers sickened says BP’s lead doctor in Gulf (VIDEO) is reason enough to close down the beaches (but we can't do that in the name of commerce). 

So there you have it. Just a few examples of the ever growing and expanding socialist state we are living in. All of this was from today's news. Simply amazing what can happen when the government becomes a run away freight train and starts plowing over individual rights when THEY attempt to DEFINE what is in YOUR best interest. We are losing our rights at a rapid pace and this financial crisis, the oil spill and the wars we are fighting are all being used to expand the power of the state over us. We need to wake up before all freedom is lost. 

GL and thanks for the views.

Its ALIVE!

Quite a couple of days we have had here recently. Apparently the ever resilient American public has been shopping like never before (well, that's what they want you to hear - so if you have not been shopping get out there in a hurry!). I know for a fact that PCB (Panama City Beach) was pretty busy with people soaking up the sun, emulsified oil and Corexit over the holiday weekend. Apparently these sheeple don't get it. The government directive to ignore all personal safety measures and re-max out your credit cards is not reality. It is not real. WAKE UP AMERICA!

In Market Rallies as Retail Sales 'Purportedly' Rise at Fastest Pace in 4 Years; Signs Suggest this Oversold Rally will Soon be Dead  Mish probes beyond the Government directed headlines to dispose the myth that you have been spending like a mad men and according to Goldman and Fed economists the double dip is not a reality but a myth purported by bloggers that don't have PhD's in economics. Mish notes, "Not only is it easy to beat record low comparisons of a year ago, same store sales are rising in part because stores are closing like mad." Do not believe the hype machine. They are gonna keep throwing shit like this at you and will keep you in the dark till it is to late.

You see, you live in America. The greatest nation on the face of the earth. We have been given by our creator the right to liberty, justice, the pursuit of happiness and unlimited entitlement and benefits supplied by our providers in the US Government. This is evidenced here in this post by Mish Illinois Construction Workers Make $50-68 Hour, Strike for 15% more. Never mind that the State of Illinois has a $13 BILLION budget deficit. That is not important. What is important is that our individual entitlements expand to infinity and beyond. What is important is that I get my share of the American dream entitlement state. Denninger covers this in Ill-Noise Is Broke But Gives 14% Raises?  

This is fucked up. We're crossing the event horizon and about the be sucked into the black hole of financial abyss. People don't get it. The sheeple are ignorant as hell and believe everything fed to them by the government controlled MSM. We need to be SCARED AS HELL right now, cause the Banksters and the Fed are taking every ounce of wealth left in this nation and the government is feeding them your current and future tax dollars to hide the fraud and lies that have apparently taken a perpetual reality. Do not believe the The Fallacy Of "Record Corporate Cash" and how they will be coming to spend and save America. 

Who cares if half the homes in America are underwater and that the FDIC, Social Security and Medicare are bankrupt, tax revenues are at historic lows and that the national debt is so out of control that we'll have to raise the debt ceiling AGAIN later this year or early next. This is some really screwed up stuff, and yet we continue to move along like good little sheeple while were being robbed and raped.

Welcome to the first stop on the way down. We'll be heading back up now to drop off those that want to remain bulls in perpetuity. Guest Post: "So Much For The Market Being Cheap" Charting A 50-75% Downside Case In The S&P is the most concise post I have seen comparing this period in history to those recessions and depressions in the past. "It seems to me that the market is now recognizing that the game is up; no amount of additional money, bailouts or otherwise can prevent the system from collapsing under the weight of all the debt that has been allowed to build.  That's why it seems as if the far end of the black line is on the cusp of doing what the red line did on the left side of this chart in 1929." that is a severe move south.

Earnings season is a week or so away. The CNBS hype machine is about to get cranked into overdrive (along with the never ending accounting fraud and pulled forward demand) to get you fired up about the recovery and the FACT that all is well. Never mind that death cross that just happened. It will be erased by the algo bots in a week or two and we'll - the blogosphere - will get another brow beating by Dennis Kneale about how stupid we digital dickweeds are. The current H&S is being canceled out at this moment. Do you think they can let such traditional TA signals get in their way? Ph-lease.

Technically the dailys may have turned the corner and (as Rich Cash has been screaming) the pop may be upon us. I have placed buy lines on the daily charts. I will be watching for the RSI to run to the divergence line, and I'll really be watching the weekly charts for the upper RSI TL to get set for the rest of the fall (then we can get some sort of time frame for this round of devastation). I'll note that this market is now a fools game to call and it will devour the best TA has to offer as it is a rigged game. 1090 is my first SPX target. It all depends on the fraud and how well they can misrepresent earnings this quarter. Careful in this fools game. It can bite you.

GL!

The Gold Wedge

Where will the price of gold go? It is what everyone is discussing. In just throwing out a quick chart and target my thoughts were a high near 1310 in the overthrow of the top TL of the wedge and then a plummet to possibly near 930. My thinking all along would be that gold would continue to spike with fear, then collapse with the markets (which is still to come - this has been nothing) and then gold shoots for the moon and a +2000 price tag. Since I am a big believer in chart patterns, then this scenario would require a reset of possibly both the upper and lower TL's to get price to go where most think it will.

So, the LT wedge is clear as day. Price at this point is challenging the lower support line and has some serious negative divergences working against any upward price action. Was that the E move and it is down from here? Is there still one more pop in price? I'm thinking if it gets thru support then let's see if it retraces to the 38% fib near 1047 support and regroup there. That 975 area looks like some good support as well.

Now, we all know that the yellow metal (filled with tungsten or not) is a rumored possibly very manipulated commodity. We also know that the recent buying action should have set a nice floor for the shiny metal near the 1100 area. Bottom line is that support is support and if busted, then something will have to answer to the powers that be regarding TA. Again, let's see what the price action is around this support line and digest it. I'm not ready for it to fall quite yet, but you never know. (Yes, I am waiting on this pullback to get uber long gold).

GL!

Futures All Over The Place (And Some Oil Spill Stuff)

OK, so maybe China really is gonna have a RE collapse and the WSJ is controlled by the Fed and the Governmen. Naaaaah, just kidding. How could those things be real when CNBS parades hundreds of experts a day across your TV to tell you the opposite?

For those of you that have not visited the plethora of links Rich Cash provided in the comments on my 4th post below, please do so. The man is a research beast and is always right on time with his thoughts, recommendations and analysis. My favorite is Oh No, It Just Can’t Be – Gulf Disaster, where you get, "Ike and, I am afraid, others are asserting that Goldman Sachs sold 44 percent of its holdings in BP, a total of 4,680,822 shares worth the best part of $300 million, in the weeks before the Gulf disaster that sent BP shares plummeting, and Tony Hayward, BP’s disgraceful chief executive, is reported to have sold his £1.4 million shares in BP a month before the explosion. Just eight days before the Gulf blow-out, Halliburton also announced that it had agreed to buy Boots & Coots for $240.4 million. Who are Boots & Coots? The world’s largest oil-spill clean-up company that also deals with oil well and gas well fires and blowouts."

I also like this angle from the story,:Dr. Ilya Sandra Perlingieri writes, “Even before the explosion, there is enough evidence(even from the New York Times) to show that this was more than an accident. Insiders sold shares before April 20. Poor-to-no management. Warnings from those on site that went unheeded. The list goes on and on. With a well this deep, on a geologically unstable seabed, there was no precaution. No emergency plans. No care. No solid science. Just an accident waiting to happen. More likely it was no accident. Just another false flag to distract us from all the financial theft and economic depression while another illegal war is planned. Greed trumps safety.” Now, this all appears to be a bit far flung and some seriously wacky conspiracy stuff, but until the government and BP get on the ball and give us some answers as to how and why this all happened, I'm gonna leave the door open to this being a false flag event as a possibility.

Were you aware that, "Researchers aboard the F.G. Walton Smith vessel briefed reporters on a two-week cruise in which they traced an underwater oil plume 15 miles wide, 3 miles long and about 600 feet thick. The plume’s core is 1,100 to 1,300 meters below the surface, they said. “It’s an infusion of oil and gas unlike anything else that has ever been seen anywhere, certainly in human history,” said Samantha Joye of the University of Georgia, the expedition leader."

I honestly believe the oil spill disaster is out Chernobyl and  the whole SE is in danger of contamination. The severity of this disaster is of such a degree that it could be decades before it is completely cleaned up. I have to accept the false flag theory as a possibility. We'll never know (just like 9/11) the whole truth, but it is something worth keeping in the back of your mind as all this plays out.

You can get some fantastic investment information/analysis from Rich HERE at his site Jubilee Prosperity.

Anyway, the futures are reacting to something, and for those of you looking for a pop soon, I'm almost at a point where I don't really care what the charts say, I say begin to brace for a crash landing. Your seats can be used as a flotation device and remember to place the oxygen mask over your children first.

The VWAP and VWAP bands (sky blue) rarely lie and they will contain price for the most part on a calm clear day without much turbulence (note how price corrected back above the lower band). I suggest you use these as they provide a wider parameter than the standard BB's do and catch and reverse price like no other indicator I know of especially on a 1m chart (simply fantastic for use in day trading). One other thing, price once on the lower or upper side of the range will tend to stay there for the day.

GL today. Pay not attention to that Death Cross on the daily chart. It means nothing (at least you won't hear Dennis K. on CNBS touting it the way he did the golden cross last year when he swore it was all over). I guess us digital Dickweeds really have no clue.