Shanky's Technical Analysis and Market Commentary

Open Weekend Post 01/28-29/12

2012-01-27T15:28:00.003-05:00

You know the drill share the love and the knowledge.

Not much here for the post - Tired of reporting on this manipulated BS for the week. Little burned out so taking a break. Need to get away from the news and data for a day or two. I may update and get you some links in the post over the weekend. That means you all get to provide the content if you don't mind. Market based, police state, Ron Paul abuse - pick your poison and let it flow.

Looking forward to Sunday, if the Greeks come up with a solution (don't know why - they have missed every deadline so far and it is apparent no one wants to give them any more money or take a massive haircut) it would be a surprise. I plan on being online Sunday night getting ready for next week, watching the futures and updating the charts.

Have a great weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning Market Summary and Charts 01/27/12 #SPX

2012-01-27T09:22:00.002-05:00

Did someone call shenanigans? If not they should have. GDP was not so hot (and you know those numbers are pumped up to make them look better than they actually are). So what happened to all this crap about 2.5% or those considering "raising" estimates or ranges up to 3.5%? Where did all that talk go? Where did all that talk get us? Just another Wall St. shenanigan to get you to believe all is well so you will remain invested. The funny part (well, not so funny) is that not one "analyst" will have their feet held to the fire (they never do) for this bullshit.

Q4 GDP Misses Estimates, Inventory Stockpiling Accounts For 1.9% Of 2.8% Q4 US Economic Growth | ZeroHedge "where a whopping 1.94% of the upside was attributable to a rise in inventories as restocking took place. And as everyone knows in this day and age a spike in inventories only leads to sub-cost dumping a few months later. In other words, the economy grew at a 0.8% pace ex inventories. Yet for all intents and purposes, this is considered "growth.""

The lies will catch up to them one day, and when that day comes there will be hell to pay. Sadly it will not be just the liars and cheats that will get it in the end, but all of us will be effected

I'm pissed, ThinkorSwin has this tiny "reset" button next to the print button - it clears all your charts - like everything - looks like I get to rebuild all my charts if I can't get them restored.

60m SPX - Look out below. Before I deleted all my ToS stuff on the minis there was a beautiful 30m candle surging under the lower green wedge support diagonal. that is the signal I've been looking for. On the cash chart below the red support will fail at the open as they took the wedge to its absolute max. The only question is will the larger black wedge be in play or not? Backtest should be anticipated, but is not necessary.

GL and GB!

Morning Market Summary and Charts 01/26/12 #SPX

2012-01-26T09:30:00.001-05:00

I think I have a FOMC hangover. Like I got absolutely pummeled yesterday on hopium and am waking up today wondering what the hell happened while I was passed out. It was a normal day and then the Fed spiked my cocktail. Then this euphoric nightmare happened. The Fed spoke of ZIRP to eternity and conditions that warranted serious monitoring, but thru all the warnings and awful news this angel appeared. I thought it funny she had a pitchfork, horns and a tail, that's meaningless. She brought 'accommodative policy' with her and all of a sudden the skies turned bright, Wall St. rejoiced and all fears of market weakness were immediately erased.

When I finally came to, I realized this was not a hallucination or a dream. It is the new reality. A centrally planned crony capitalist cleptocracy now rules the globe. Nothing matters anymore other than maintaining the markets lofty levels while the wealth transfer from the poor to ultra rich accelerates. Whether right, wrong or indifferent it does not matter.

I've explained this for years now and you have to listen and believe. All that stands between the government/Fed/crony system and the public going totally ape is the illusion that the stock market is healthy and your wealth (what's left of it) is just fine, growing and safe. A failure of the stock market leads to the failure of everything at this point. From the complete pension system to what little privately held wealth is left, they are hanging on by any means possible at this time, cause when the markets go, so does everything else.

I am still taken back by their audacity and the fact that this is actually happening to America. The special interest controlled congress has effectively deregulated everything and the horses are out in the pastures running wild. While we live in a society with ever increasing controls and laws, the crony capitalists represent a Teflon Don (Corzine) that can do what they want without fear of any repercussions. Whatever it takes no matter the cost to keep the system going is the only rule for them now.

One of my constant themes has been to follow the Fed. The Fed made it clear yesterday that they will continue to use whatever "tools" are necessary to keep the system running. ZIRP and easing are their only "tools". How friggin hard is it to run the printers full bore 24/7/365? This will all end one day when printing and stealth easing finally catch up to the system and the farce literally explodes in their face.

It is apparent now the EU has begun the unthinkable and unconstitutional printing as well. One has to ask, where the hell does all this money come from? Market watchers here must now change their focus to the euro zone and what happens with the Greek/Portugal/Spain bailouts not to mention the rest of the zone. With all the funds flowing to the banks and back to the ECB, one does not has to wonder how literally unstable things are over there. March 9th is the next EU summit that will fail to restructure or solve any of the unsolvable issues over there. How long can they keep the ball in the air is the only question.

As for global trade and economic conditions you only need to look at one chart and read this post Baltic Dry Plunges 42% More Than Seasonal Norm To Start The Year | ZeroHedge. "Whether it is an over-abundance of ships (mis-allocation of capital) or a slowing global growth story (aggregate demand), the crash in the Baltic Dry Index has been significant to say the least. Seasonals are prevalent (and Chinese New Year impacts) but to try and clean up that perspective, we find that so far this year the Baltic Dry has fallen 42% more than its seasonal normal and is down by more than 50% since 12/30/11. Nothing to see here move along."

BDI SPX comp chart - This is not normal and may possibly be the most glaring chart indicating market manipulation there is.

Regardless of the Fed's actions STB remains in market is in a topping process mode. the technicals do not lie and will as they always do lead us to the truth. Markets can and do remain unrealistically overbought for extended periods during easing "moments". We just have to remain patient and wait them out. I believe at least a corrective is coming sooner than later of some sort.

SPX 60m - I have already presented the black wedge scenario where we fall for D and back up for one last move to the top. Will that be the play? It all depends on what the EU comes up with to keep their life support system running. Patience remains the word of the day. Let them reveal their plans and release road marks in the future that we can key on.

Minis /es 30m - The red resistance diagonal runs off the 1586 '07 top and the 1373 '11 tops. That is my key point. Right now I'm on this is an overthrow of the greed rising wedge. 1332 should be the max. Note I moved this diag up late yesterday to accommodate just the tops.

As mentioned, the form of the fall will be key. I do believe this will be a sell the news event similar to the QE announcement of November '10 at this time with a last possible run to a top to follow. If not, the fall will be horrific. Either way their games are ending and they are losing control. Remain calm and patient. Let the trade come to you. If you bite, have a plan and always use stops. Discipline at tops is very difficult.

GL and GB!

Afternoon Delight 01/25/12 - The Beginning of the End

2012-01-25T18:11:00.001-05:00

The Feds announcement today and the stock market's reaction to it signaled to me that reality truly no longer exists. Fair, random walk, DOW theory - you can throw it all out the window. For those that have not been on the manipulation train for the past two years and do not believe in such things, I have a feeling that you will not awaken from your slumber till it is far too late.

What the non-believers see is a rising market and an economy that is "recovering" on most "data" points. What non-believers don't see is reality and that the Fed told them today that all is not well. With the Fed seeing "exceptionally low rates thru 2014" does not sound all that promising does it? "Housing remains depressed" is not good. The Fed reiterating "Significant downside risks" does not sound so hot either. What does ring loudly in the ears of the bulltards is "Fed expects to maintain a 'highly accommodative' monetary policy" and that is all that matters.

The flow of "funds" or "QE" or whatever fiat forces that make it from the Fed to the markets that lift and give the illusion all is well in the markets has blinded (intentionally) the bulltards. The fact that the Fed is monetizing debt at an exponential rate to keep the banks open and the system alive means nothing to the non-believers. They believe that the recovery is real which is the farthest possible position from reality. But the bulltards keep making money and with every tick higher they become more bold in their belief all is well. This is just what "they" want, welcome to the trap.

We now have a government that has to stay open funding its self via not funding its employees pension plan (for the second time in a year), that has not had a budget in almost three years, with an exponentially expanding National Debt close to $15.3 Trillion (your share is now $135,000 and growing every day), running over 100% debt to GDP (Did Obummer bring any of this up last night?), and so things are really not all that well at all are they? What's worse? The $117 TRILLION in unfunded liabilities to social security, medicare and the like (of which you are responsible of $1million - what - Obummer did not mention that either? ) We're so screwed, but the markets don't care (and neither does your government). U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time

I suggest you read "Tying It All Together" with David Rosenberg | ZeroHedge. Bottom line is the markets are addicted to the fiat hopium and require the injection (or promise or rumor of) in order to react and rise. This is the new reality. "He adds that while many believe last year's extreme volatility was an aberration, he wonders if in fact the opposite is true and that what we saw in 2009-2010 - a double in the S&P 500 from the low to nearby high - was the aberration and market's demands for more and more QE/easing becomes the volatility-inducing swings of dysphoric reality mixed with euphoric money printing salvation. In his words, perhaps the entire three years of angst turned to euphoria turned to angst (and back to euphoria in the first three weeks of 2012?) is the new normal. After all we had angst from 1929 to 1932 then ebullience from 1933 to 1936 and then back to despair in 1937-1938. Without the central banks of the world constantly teasing markets with more and more liquidity, the new baseline normal is dramatically lower than many believe and as such the former's impacts will need to be greater and greater to maintain the mirage of the old normal."

I highly suggest that you (both believers and non-believers) watch this video "US financial economic collapse?!" Max Keiser Gonzalo Lira - YouTube. It is the best On The Edge video I have ever seen and explains so many things. It will walk you through a range of topics from the comparison to the fall of Rome, the current dictatorship, the NDAA, MF Global, bank holidays, hyperinflation and the coming retirement plan confiscation. It sounds just like they have been reading my blog over the past three years. So, is now the time to leave America?

I have to do some chart updates tonight to reaffirm my bearings. Right now I'm thinking this has been more like the run off the Jackson Hole August '10 1040 SPX lows to the QE announcement in November where the markets sold the news (as all called here on STB). The charts are ready to sell. We're thru everything but the EU/Greek mess. What I'm still not certain about is how the market gravitated its interpretation of Fed speak from what was a definitive "QE" to now interpretating 'highly accommodative' monetary policy as sure fire QE.

Taking into account the election year and several other factors, it appears the big fix may be in, which means you can possibly breathe easy (/sarc) till the Iran war later this year or till after the election. My theme has been that it can crash it at any moment or they keep it afloat thru the election then it crashes. That still stands as my "event" (the exogenous one that rips control of everything from the central planners and throws everything into the pit of fire) can happen at any moment.

I need to sort thru my disbelief that all this is really happening and get my head straight before commenting more on the markets or possible scenarios. The Fed's actions today simply confirm that we are even further down the road to total destruction than most imagined. We've been discussing for weeks now that they (the Fed) were scared of something. They were protecting and hiding something.

That something is the debt problem, insolvent banks and an economy that is DOA (not to mention accompanying global issues). The global Ponzi is busted and we're now simply buying time till the end. I had thought that they would manufacture one last major correction in the markets to allow for an easier transition (in appearance only) to a more 'accommodative' stance. Apparently they want the whole enchilada and could not give a flip about appearances anymore.

Today was a big move for the central planners as the markets applauded their arrival with more stimulus and goodies for everyone. The non-believers rejoiced and adjusted their blinders appropriately tighter to keep from seeing the bullshit that is flying past them at mach 10. All they want to see and hear is more stimulus ignoring the fact that this same stimulus will be exactly what brings the most pain down the road. Man is this place screwed up.

GL and GB!

Charting Apple (AAPL) - Resistance is Strong

2012-01-25T11:19:00.000-05:00

I love AAPL and all its products, but all good things must come to an end (or at least a pause at some point). I'm not saying here and now AAPL turns for good or anything like that, but in the next year or so the charts say that the run will end or at least finally begin the topping process.

The argument for this being a blow off top and a near term turn to come is pretty strong technically. (Note this fits with the supposedly impending slide in the equity markets.) Last week I posted Is Apple (AAPL) Headed For a 50% Haircut? where I warned to wait thru earnings to make any decisions. Well now earnings has come and gone, so is it time to make a big boy decision?

Looking at the charts -

AAPL Daily - Now the daily chart is setting a double negative divergence while price spiked right to and stopped at upper diagonal (black) resistance). Double negs on a daily are never good.

AAPL Weekly - Want a channel view? Want to see price nail upper channel resistance and reverse on the spot today? There you have it. Want to see something telling? Look at the weekly MFI falling off a cliff and the divergences indicating this run is not all that as well.

AAPL Monthly - One giant rising wedge that has price accelerating and consolidating at the top. The wedge runs to about mid 2013, but these things rarely play out to the very end. Those two green target areas that don't look "too bad" at first glance. The ones that look like likely support areas at fib retracements - the first one is at 280 and the second goes as low as 200. Hello!

AAPL is a beast. As stated I love their products and they are life changing. Lord knows how many iProducts my family has owned and will continue to. Bottom line is they will eventually at some time saturate the market and the growth will go away. At that point they become another Microsoft if they do not diversify or create (unlikely with Jobs gone) some sort of new technology. With the cash they have they could do anything.

Bottom line is AAPL is not immune to broader market and economic conditions and the Christmas earnings blow out may be a fadeable event. Markets are set to implode (if the Fed allows it). The consumer is struggling (but apparently finding room in the budget for the one necessity (an iProduct). I really think a move to $355 here is quite possible if broader market conditions weaken as they are expected to. Worse is possible if all the stars align, but let's not get too far ahead of things just yet.

Morning Market Summary and Charts 01/25/12 #SPX #Gold

2012-01-25T09:25:00.000-05:00

On January 04, 2012 I gave you this -

"FOMC Schedule - You all know that I love and preach following the Fed. This FOMC Meeting chart has been a wonderful tool for STB. I have used it combined with TA to make some pretty fine calls (if I may say) for some time now. At this moment it appears that a move to upper resistance (blue) at the FOMC meeting on Jan 24-25 would be a likely call and something traders should keep an eye on." Shanky's Technical Analysis and Market Commentary: Morning Post 01/04/12, SPX

FOMC Meeting Schedule - Of the 13 instances on this chart where markets have been rising into FOMC meetings going back to June of '11 where price is rising to the meeting only once has it failed.

Here is the same chart today with the only change having added the upper thin blue diagonal (which must admit did not thing was in the equation) and having moved the blue arrow up.

Combining this (well the Fed's intentions since they are the puppet masters) with technical analysis has allowed me to make some pretty strong calls over the past two years.

Minis 60m - This minis chart I have been showing for a couple of months now has been nothing short of spectacular. The rising yellow channel (bullish) now turning into a rising wedge (bearish) have given me the support/resistance points with a staggering degree of accuracy. The green wedge is driving into the upper (red) resistance diagonal off the 1586 over the 1373 tops. This should by all rights be "the" point for a reversal. Of course that is up to the Fed and not the markets.

The mass of air supporting the COMPQ will only get worse this morning. Right now off the November 2440 low 44% of the move in price is gap area. That is not sustainable.

Daily SPX - BB's narrowing while the upper BB is being tested with overbought indicators (see red boxes and red vertical lines) with others (my fav the NYMO) diverging does not look good all while upper resistance is being challenged.

Gold (/yg) daily - Gold is set to possibly collapse which works well with the set up for the markets if this fall is what everyone is expecting it to be. Channel support (green) off the '08 lows is holding price now. What has formed after the blow off top to 1927 is a decreasing triangle that looks rather ominous. For more detail on this see my Is Gold About To Collapse? post from earlier this month.

Let's see what the Fed has to say then I'll get into calling things in the commentary as usual. I'm looking for the green wedge support on the minis to give way. IT should happen with flair. This should become impulsive. Remember I'm looking for form. The minis need to close the week at 1276 or below to get a nice weekly reversal candle on the board.

GL and GB!

UPDATE - Minis 1m - You know my interest is up when I break back out the VWAP and the Vbands - To say the least - green wedge support is working its miracle again. This is what I am looking to fail for my cue that the turn is in. As always, the backtest must be warned against and expected. Triple resistance (yellow, green and upper blue Vband at 1316. First resistance around 1305 then 2nd near 1309 with VWAP and resistance.

Sub 1305 than 1300 round level is what the bears are looking for. I am suspecting it remains weak but not off the charts weak till the Fed speaks.

Afternoon Delight 01/24/12 - D-Day

2012-01-24T17:20:00.002-05:00

This is gonna be a summary AD - tomorrow is the big day. One way or the other we get clarity and the FOMC behind us. I've walked us up to this point and all that is left is the FOMC meeting (well, and that Greek thing that was supposed to be over by now).

AAPL blew out earnings. One of the reasons my shorts were on hold for the markets. Earnings in general are miserable, but apparently earnings don't matter anymore (except for AAPL).

What will potus have to move the markets tonight? It will mostly be a bunch of crap to move the masses promising things he will never deliver on, but the sheeple will soak up and worship.

FOMC tomorrow is the biggie. It will most likely be a non event but an event none the less. They'll keep verbiage similar and reiterate a weak outlook is my guess.

The euro zone is spinning out of control. Everyone knows it can't be fixed and that it is only a matter of time before it implodes. The only question is when? I'll just regurgitate the zerohedge links for your consumption tonight. Linked and grouped they make quite an impression all in one place. They have been way to quiet for weeks, so I get out some frustration and deliver them all to you.

"The coordination of 17 disaparate nations leaves the former IMF man greatly concerned as the unique nature of this crisis leaves "four economic, social, and political events as possible causes of systemic collapse with each at risk of occurring in the next weeks, months, or years and these risks will not disappear quickly."" "Dreams Versus Reality" - Former IMF Chief Economist On Europe's Last Stand | ZeroHedge

IMF Cuts Global Forecast, Sees European Recession, Warns Of 4% Economic Crunch If No Euroarea Action | ZeroHedge

Italy Police Busts Fitch Milan Office | ZeroHedge

S&P Warning Of Imminent Greek Default Again, But Promises All Shall Be Well, Dallara Speaks | ZeroHedge

"Think the US won't experience a full blown recession if European growth implodes? Think again." Decoupalypse Now | ZeroHedge

Guest Post: EU Finance Ministers Push Through ESM Treaty in Fishy Fly-by-Night Move | ZeroHedge

Portugal Reenters Bailout Radar As Traders Realize Greek "Rescue" Model Is Not Feasible Here | ZeroHedge

Greek Debt Deal Rejected As S&P Begins European Bank Downgrades | ZeroHedge

Post-Europe Close, Volume Disappears And EUR Rally Fails To Inspire | ZeroHedge

And one last link -

"Joseph Granville, whose “sell everything” call in 1981 sparked a decline in U.S. stocks, said the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) will drop toward 8,000 this year because of waning momentum and volume." Granville Says Dow Industrial May Drop Toward 8,000 in 2012 - Bloomberg The man has been calling markets for over 50 years and he says volume is the key and that things are gonna get really ugly.

Buckle up. Tomorrow may be a wild one.

Chart of the Day -

Since it will be the last time for a while, because I know you will miss seeing it and because it has been soooo good to us for well over the past month -

FOMC Meeting Chart - I may have to pull it out one more time in the morning - who knows?

AAPL - Pushing the envelope - That wedge is ending - it may take 6 moths to play out, but it is ending. The pop tonight really did not abuse the upper diagonal all that much and could be considered the start of a throw over of the wedge.

GL and GB!

Morning Market Summary and Charts 01/24/12 #SPX

2012-01-24T09:16:00.001-05:00

Isn't this nice to wake up to : Guest Post: EU Finance Ministers Push Through ESM Treaty in Fishy Fly-by-Night Move | ZeroHedge

"RED ALERT TO EVERYBODY INTERESTED IN THE ESM: THERE IS NO CURRENT VERSION OF THE ESM TREATY AVAILABLE!!!

Europe's most important treaty on the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), which will lead the EU into a financial dictatorship, has been pushed through by EU finance ministers late Monday evening.

But the latest version of the ESM cannot be found on English and German EU websites. A link on consilium EU only leads to a 'file not found' message and the German EU website "Europa von A - Z" does not mention the ESM at all. This reminds one of the secrecy around the Federal Reserve Act, that was pushed through in 1912. Is the EU Commission now playing the same fishy game 100 years later?

Media reports from last midnight only said that the ESM treaty was agreed on by EU finance ministers and mentioned January 30 as the date when the treaty will be officially signed."

Of course the markets do not care about such things as liberty and freedom, those are purely secondary items to the big grab and perpetual printing. This will most likely be another banksta/elite/central planning favored treaty that further en debts the sheeple to serve the system (dent slaves) that favors the richest of the rich and their henchmen.

Of course corporate controlled media will spin it as the savior of all things and the one solution that will end the crisis. We all know that is a bunch of crap and there is no way out of this debt crisis and this is just another mechanism for controlling the sheeple and further tying their taxes and labor to serve the crony capitalists.

This flows nicely into the Bruins goaltender and playoff MVP skipping out on the white house ceremony. Tim Thomas' statement for why he was not there,

""I believe the Federal government has grown out of control, threatening the Rights, Liberties, and Property of the People.

This is being done at the Executive, Legislative, and Judicial level. This is in direct opposition to the Constitution and the Founding Fathers vision for the Federal government.

Because I believe this, today I exercised my right as a Free Citizen, and did not visit the White House. This was not about politics or party, as in my opinion both parties are responsible for the situation we are in as a country. This was about a choice I had to make as an INDIVIDUAL."

Barack Obama honors Stanley Cup champion Boston Bruins; Tim Thomas a no-show - ESPN Boston (The comment stream has over 5,000 entries and is the most disturbing thing I have ever read - I may have to do a post on it later).

We should all applaud Tim's effort here to make a statement that is resonating on the MSM and thru the web. His unselfish gesture is so spot on and speaks the truth, that (as stated and proven here on STB daily) governments are out of control. We the sheeple have lost all liberties and freedoms. They have been stolen (literally) by the special interest groups that control everything. Not until many many more like Tim speak up and make their voices heard will the tide even start to turn back to the sheeple.

I will not listen to the state of the union address tonight, as I find listening to him nauseating and a complete waste of time. The lies tonight will be astounding I bet.

AAPL after the bell tonight. MCD beat which is no surprise. We're almost there folks. the market may have topped yesterday, but I want to get thru the Fed news and AAPL before I go out on any limbs. Right now it looks like it topped yesterday.

SPX Daily -

Minis 30m - This chart has been amazing for over a month now. The lower green support is being tested. If that cracks I believe the odds of a top being in are quite high. The fall should be swift. As indicated in yesterday morning's post the COMPQ has 44% air (gaps) under it off the last major low.

Get me thru the FOMC and AAPL and then I'll release the full bear that is begging to come out of STB. As I preach, the form of the fall will be all important. Gaps, impulses, big reversal candles, busted support and backtests - all are things that clue you into the price action. It should be fun for the bears soon.

GL and GB!

Afternoon Delight 01/23/12 - It Is A Long Way Downnnnnnn

2012-01-23T16:14:00.001-05:00

What can I say, emotions are thru the roof. It has been some time since the rhetoric across the financial blogs has been this testy. It is even bleeding over to the MSM (who are learning that the web is the best source of real information). Call it consensus disbelief.

It actually may be worse now than anytime in the past as even more have bought their tickets and are on the HFT/QE manipulation train. Even more are on the "we're all gonna die anyway so why are we bailing out everyone so what does it matter anyway" story, so why the rampage?

Those situations make my blogging a bit easier as I have been on the manipulation train and preaching it for years. Some thought I was nuts (some - the lost - still do). The sheeple and even some major players are coming around and beginning to voice their disbelief which is quite the change of events.

Complacency? Read this and pay note to the tidbits from Rosie. "With a couple of breadcrumbs, a sprinkle of "hope" and a cup of optimism - analysts, economists and investors have whipped up the perfect concoction by extrapolating recent upticks into long term future advances. However, this is a game that we have seen play out repeatedly before." Guest Post: Complacency Risk Is High | ZeroHedge

Why has all this disbelief set in from those that have a clue? Well if you will please take the time to look at just the charts in this post you will get it. "How does the current recovery compare to those of the past? The following charts from the Council on Foreign Relations puts the current (un)recovery in context and despite some apparently bright news recently, the pictures underline the economy's weakness since the NBER's recovery began in June 2009." Charting The US (Un)Recovery | ZeroHedge

How far gone is the system? Well, to use the term dislocated may be kind. Watch the interview in this video. Some think (as I have no doubt), "“We now have an entitled class of Wall Street financiers and of corporate CEOs who believe the government is there to do… whatever it takes in order to keep the game going and their stock price moving upward,”" Stockman tells Moyers. Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Crony Capitalism and the Entitled Class of Wall Street Financiers; Bill Moyers Interviews David Stockman, Ronald Reagan's Budget Director

So what is there to stop the crony centrally planned system? In a reaction the the O-MFG event that is still unresolved, "I think the search for a silver bullet is probably futile," Roth told Reuters from his Chicago office. "If someone wants to break the law, you can't prevent that without sitting with them 24 hours a day." No silver bullet to avert another MF Global: regulator | Reuters and you know this administration will not prosecute any wrongdoing.

This post kind of says it all and explains )(to some degree) why we're on the path we're on - if they stop spending it all blows up, but if you stay on the same path it blows up anyway. Pretty simple when you think about it. If The U.S. Government Keeps Spending Money Like This We Are Doomed And If The U.S. Government Stops Spending Money Like This We Are Doomed

If you missed this video in the Weekend Post please give it a listen. This may be our future.

Warren Pollock on Max Keiser Regarding Bank Holidays - YouTube

In another incident of a global move away from the dollar and into other forms of currencies to back transactions (this is bad) - India to pay gold instead of dollars for Iranian oil. Oil and gold markets stunned DEBKAfile

Chart of the Day -

SPX 60m - I'll stick with this one for this evening. Not much changed from this morning. The chart needs little explanation. the red wedge is ending and if that is not it the bears will have to suffer a bit longer while the black one plays out. I'll do a full TA post in the morning covering everything.

Presidential Election -

Watch the video in this one. Voter fraud goes from conspiracy theory to reality as, "The Associated Press reports that South Carolina’s attorney general, Alan Wilson, has notified the U.S. Justice Department of potential voter fraud in the Palmetto State this weekend." » Voter Fraud: Dead People Cast Over 950 Ballots In South Carolina Alex Jones' Infowars. So if you have several dead relatives and want to cast more than one vote and you live in New Hampshire - go for it!

WW III -

Things really heated up this weekend and that 6 month time table that Obummer was looking at just got met by the EU embargo (remember if too early before the election he'll lose all sorts of momo from the war - the timing on this thing has to be just right for maximum political effect). Follow the links as they lay out the most relevant and recent developments -

"The measures include an immediate embargo on new contracts for crude oil and petroleum products while existing ones are allowed to run until July." European Union agrees on Iran oil embargo - Telegraph Note that end of July date and remember it. This gives them some time to saber rattle and turn the screws a bit.

Then Iran Fired back, "Following the agreement reached on Monday, Iranian lawmaker Mohammad Ismail Kowsari, deputy head of Iran’s influential committee on national security, said the strait “would definitely be closed if the sale of Iranian oil is violated in any way.”" Iran Vows to Shut Down Strait of Hormuz as EU Passes Oil Embargo Alex Jones' Infowars

This is some real escalation. "Reuters report that the EU has agreed to freeze the assets of the Iranian central bank and ban all trade in gold and other precious metals with the Iranian Central Bank and other public bodies in Iran." Currency Wars - Iran Banned From Trading Gold and Silver | ZeroHedge

Obummer Bashing -

Yes, I'm a birther and I'm from Georgia, so this is doubly good for me, "A judge has ordered President Barack Obama to appear in court in Atlanta for a hearing on a complaint that says Obama isn't a natural-born citizen and can't be president." Ga. judge orders president to appear at hearing - CBS Atlanta 46

Police State -

So how bad is it when the TSA starts to want to pat down US Senators? Kentucky Senator Rand Paul was briefly detained this morning after a standoff incident with TSA officers In Nashville. » Alex Jones' Infowars

"The police state is growing out of control" Ron Paul | TSA | Rand Paul | The Daily Caller

Fukushima (it ~~won't~~ should not go away) -

You need to read this. Fukushima Cover Up Unravels: "The Government Can No Longer Pull the Wool Over the Public’s Eyes" , "The repeated failures have done more than raise concerns that some Japanese may have been exposed to unsafe levels of radiation in their food, as regrettable as that is. They have also had a corrosive effect on public confidence in the food-monitoring efforts, with a growing segment of the public and even many experts coming to believe that officials have understated or even covered up the true extent of the public health risk in order to limit both the economic damage and the size of potential compensation payments."

Bonus Coverage! - For those of you into chemtrails or for those that don't believe they are spraying stuff in the skies that we don't know about check this out.

Pilot Films Plane Spraying Chemtrails - YouTube

GL and GB!

Morning Market Summary and Charts 01/23/12 #SPX

2012-01-23T08:47:00.002-05:00

Well, we have arrived. The week STB has been pointing to for almost a month now. We've made it thru the early earnings and opex, now it is time to get the FOMC meeting, AAPL and the Greek PSI out of the way so the markets can do what they need to, correct or worse.

Minis /es 30m - As I have been noting, yellow rising channel (bullish) is trying to give way to the green rising wedge (bearish) as the markets try to roll over. STB has been spot on with these diagonals all month. That upper heavy red diagonal is resistance off the 1370 top. Pay close attention to that point (1322) if it should get close to it. I see no reason to get excited about anything till the lower green wedge support diagonal falters. Another thing is that diagonal needs to fail with flair in my opinion. The bears need a decisive point that marks the turn. As mentioned last week, the form of the fall, does it have substance, will be very important.

Looking at the COMPQ 30m - note the gaps (yellow) - of the 340 point climb since 11/29 roughly 150 points of the climb is in GAPS. That means that 45% of the climb is air, nothing, nada, huge holes. The blue island gap just under 2720 should be noted.

SPX 60m - Want all the possibilities? Here they are. Bearish rising wedges everywhere (with some playing out sooner than others) all sitting on top of weakening indicators below. My conservative side likes the black wedge, but that red one ending here looks pretty solid.

FOMC Meeting Chart - Well, the good news is you won't be seeing this chart any longer after tomorrow for a month or so. I'm pretty sure you are tired of seeing it. Hey, it has done its job. It got us to this point.

Natgas took out my 2.40 target and hit 2.23 lows over the weekend. Amazing stuff right there. STB likes it when his long term calls come to fruition. About the only one left from the early days of the blog is for my exogenous event to come and rip control of the markets from the central planners. I think I will do a /ng post today.

GL and GB!

Open Weekend Post 01/21-22/12 (SPX)

2012-01-20T16:00:00.000-05:00

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge. Nice week for lurkers this week as several came out of the closet and did very well on the board. Remember the only rule I have and that is to respects others at all times.

We managed to survive the week. Emotions are wound tighter than they have been in quite some time. Of course this is well deserved. Everyone is in disbelief and quite possibly the central planners pushed the envelope a bit far this time. Why is the big question? My thought is that they are trying their damnedest to suck the sheeple funds in for one last mega scalp (wealth transfer) so they can exit as flush as possible.

STB has been on the fall for quite some time and anticipating a pretty nasty move coming. The news bits and bytes have been increasing in intensity looking for a pretty substantial move to come. the latest - ""Exhibit 5 shows just how excited stock investors seem to be getting over this prospect, especially in relation to their fixed income peers. But, this is almost always the case when animal spirits get going. The last time I pointed out such a divergence (October of last year), the SPX had a swift 10% correction over the proceeding 3 weeks. I have no idea whether we are likely to get such a correctly immediately, but I sure can’t rule it out and I am pretty confident you won’t be able to get out of the way unscathed." The Stock Ramp Is Just More Deja Vu "Insanity" Warns Morgan Stanley | ZeroHedge.

The FOMC chart has worked wonders. Next week we have FOMC, AAPL and the Greek PSI issue. Once all that is settled, I expect the market to sigh at a minimum. Remember it will be the form of the fall that I will be watching to see if it has the depth and breadth that should transpire. Some of the 10% numbers could actually be conservative. If my SPX right shoulder is playing out you could be staring down a 400 to 600 point move here. We've all noted that the Fed is afraid of something here. It is apparent. I think you have witnessed stealth QE as the Fed has used those "tools" they said they had if needed.

If you want a chart I suggest you see the posts from Wednesday morning on. They are loaded with just about anything you could want SPX related.

Now a couple of must read and must see things - This is freaky scary stuff relating to MF Global.

Warren Pollock on Max Keiser Regarding Bank Holidays - YouTube

Now read this and start putting the pieces together (and don;t freak out) -

Obama Pushes Hard to Protect Big Banks from Fraud Prosecutions … But We Can Stop Him

UPDATE -

Look at this - Those diags have been simply nailing everything.

One more thing - Stephen Colbert Breaks Character And Endorses Ron Paul - YouTube

Enjoy your weekend.

GL and GB!

GOOGLE (GOOG) The Charts Saw It Coming

2012-01-20T11:21:00.000-05:00

Pretty simple post here. I usually throw out a GOOG post with earnings. The weekly chart gave you the set up for the miss. IMHO this is the best GOOG chart on the net (but then again it is the only one I have seen).

GOOG Weekly -

At point C there was still a chance (along with the broad markets) that a triangle was forming. Then the wedge (blue) formation took over. That has now played out ABCDE textbook and right at a pink cycle top line. The weekly negative divergences under the rising wedge told you this miss was coming. Amazing how TA does this stuff.

GOOG Daily - Again resistance and the negative divergences (especially MACD) gave you the play. About the only question I have is who leaked what or what happened to cause that spike last week? That ain't right.

IMHO the weekly chart gave you the layup. Now does it fall to LT 375 support? What does that have to say about what's coming for the broader market? Let's wait for AAPL and the FOMC next week before jumping to any conclusions.

GL and GB!

Morning Post 01/20/12 (SPX)

2012-01-20T08:26:00.002-05:00

First let me get this off my chest. To me this is the travesty and a very dark part of not only the markets, but this issue also represents everything that is wrong with our country and the future. GE beats! Why is that such a problem? Because Obummer's Jobs Czar the head of GE sends something like 10,000 of GE's jobs overseas (and those are the ones we know about). So GE gets rewarded for a beat all the while not supporting the country for profit? I don't think so, they should be taken out back and given 20 lashes. Stuff like this really ticks me off. There are so many things inherently wrong with that situation at this time. It is disgusting.

On to the markets - I'm looking for momo in the fall. Momo or a real break south with volume (that is the only time it seems to show up these days) and then for some key support levels to go. This should be a really aggressive move if the set up plays out. On the board here at STB and some major forecasters (we spoke of it first) are noting the fear and unease that surrounds the markets at this point. The central planners are to some very afraid of something and have been protecting the markets.

Many are very frustrated with the markets right now for not falling. I can fully understand. The charts have been prepping for a fall that seemingly will not come. Last week and this Wednesday I posted a full chart review of all the key data points that you need to see (IMO of course not that others don't exist - we all have our own keys). This post is well worth reviewing and has links to all the chart positions currently.

At the 1304.5 top I started getting a bit giddy about the markets nearing some sort of top, but still did not bite. Form of the fall as I used to preach (and mentioned above). That will be your key. Most likely a massive unmistakable candle like you have not seen in a few months will be your key. Yesterday at the 1311 top I gave this in the commentary (which for you readers that never go there is where you find all of my intraday calls).

"Little double top here on the minis at 1311. On cash at 1315 as well. Divergence is pretty strong on the 5 - 15m macd and the 30m macd is overbought and about to bear cross. 30m SS and RSI embedded since late yesterday. Based on the lack of enthusiasm on this mornings move (similar to the fall last Friday) no one is buying it.

The 30m candles on cash are really strange as well - every 2hrs there was a 30m spike then nothing. See the pattern for yourself. This pattern busted today and the candle now should be spiking but is not (actually black at this time).

This puppy is way overbought near term (looks like a blow off as I mentioned earlier). At this time I speculate any fall will happen after hours where it can be defended against (or controlled) and where you can not participate.

I'm sidelined and not even looking for a scalp till something happens. I'm not looking long either at this time. I'll remain patient. It does look like some sort of turn may be about to materialize. 1295 would be first support sub 1300." Shanky's Technical Analysis and Market Commentary: Morning Post 01/19/12 (SPX)

I've taken this FOMC chart and walked the markets up into it. Why? Simply cause it is all about the Fed and markets rarely fall moving into and FOMC meeting. Rallies continue to run right up to them. Just look at all but one instance in the chart for rising markets.

That chart has been money in the past and has proven its worth again since the beginning of the year. I'm still not in sell mode although it appears the 1311 top was possibly it. We made it thru opex now, that will open some doors for the bears. We still have to get thru the FOMC runors, AAPL earnings and the ever struggling Greek PSI agreement.

Daily SPX - Last night's AD post had some jammin charts in it as well. The markets are just about ready to fall if not there. The one problem with that is the Fed and the central planners. Nothing happens without their permission. that may led to this fall being not all what everyone is expecting (but that is for another post).

Minis 4hr - STB has followed up the yellow channel in this chart for over a month now. It has been golden. Now the channel is breaking support and a classic rising wedge (bearish from bullish) has formed and is playing out as the markets attempt to roll over.

Form of the fall folks, Not till this things gets some momo south will I waste my breath speculating on downside targets. I will say this, the form of the climb has left a gazillion of them. Start with the round level of 1300 and then we'll work from there. It should fall in 20 point chunks the way it rose (if not faster) 1277, 57, 37, 17 should be the key areas at this time.

Thanks for all the support and comments. Again for those that do not read the comments, this board rocks and has a lot of really bright traders throwing their stuff out below. Read 'em and join 'em if you like.

Have a great weekend.

GL and GB.

Afternoon Delight 01/19/12 - Chart Porn STB Style!

2012-01-19T17:08:00.001-05:00

Let's just do charts today shall we - A bunch I am pulling out of the closet that you have not seen in a while. This is draw your own conclusion day in the STB AD. Report your thoughts and what you do and don't like in the comments below. Me? You know I have been waiting on that FOMC meeting for about three weeks now. Add to that the AAPL earnings. GOOG missed tonight.

Index Comparison Monthly On Top (2) - Here they all are, all your favorite indexes in one place with all the key levels, diagonals and resistance/support points. Looks to me like a bunch of backtests of busted support at key resistance levels under long term resistance. Of course with the debt situation improving (as in continuing to go up, up, up) and the economy screaming along setting all sorts of (negative) records the Trannies and the Q's are closing in on all time highs. That makes a whole bunch of sense to me (/sarc).

Another closer look at the Index on top Daily Chart - Note the pink cycle lines. Also note the backtest of busted resistance above is not nearly as apparent here. Part of the reason I show this is that you can't always believe what you see. I can present what I want you to see, in this case you see the glaring differences.

Tops and Bottoms 2 Years - Whoa! Here they all are again! Compare every top and bottom over the past two years across the indexes to the SPX. Also see all the similarities in the divergences - this is a great all purpose chart and good for the noobs as well. Note how long the divergences lasted into the April '10 top. That was insane.

Monthly SPX Support/Resistance - Another bigger picture look.

What would an STB post be without the FOMC Meeting chart - I moved the blue arrow up and added the thin upper blue diagonal. Sadly the diagonal off the '07 top is not on this chart.

In the news (cause it has been the big market mover - got to drag it out over the weekend you know) - "“On Monday, January 30, at the European Union summit,” said Venizelos, “we must have definitive plans for the new loan program, too, not just PSI+.”" ekathimerini.com | Full PSI deal to come by Monday Of course - they have to have this finished before the Fed meets next week which has implications on the meeting on the 30th.

GL and GB!

Morning Post 01/19/12 (SPX)

2012-01-19T09:26:00.001-05:00

You gotta separate what's real from what's false and then place your bets on what's not real. That is the sad reality of investing today. Want proof? Let's look at two reports on BAC from this morning and see what the MSM, Wall St. and the central planners want you to hear and see and then lets look at what's really behind those stellar earnings.

The MSM, all is well, nothing to worry about, throw your money in the pot so you can retire rich and we can make massive fees off of you while you actually go poor view - From CNBC, Bank of America Rebounds to Post Profit; Shares Surge - US Business News - CNBC, "Bank of America matched profit expectations and exceeded revenue estimates for quarterly earnings, sending shares that had been trading below $5 just a month ago spiking higher in premarket trading." and add, "In particular, BofA said it made $2 billion in the fourth quarter by selling its stake in a Chinese bank and selling debt. That offset losses and higher legal expenses in its mortgage business."

Now let's pull back the curtain and reveal the Wizard - From Zero Hedge, Bank Of America Beats EPS Estimates, Misses Net Of One Time Items, Reports Could Be Underaccrued By Up To $5 Billion | ZeroHedge. "So far so good. But a quick skim through the presentation (attached below), indicates that the $0.18 number may be grossly inflated. Because when one excludes the various selected one time items highlighted in the quarter, which are as follows: Gain on sale of CCB shares - $2.9; Gains on exchanges of trust preferred securities - $1.2; Gains on sales of debt securities - $1.2; Representations and warranties provision - ($0.3); DVA on trading liabilities- ($0.5); Goodwill impairment - ($0.6); Fair value adjustment on structured liabilities - ($0.8); Mortgage-related litigation expense ($1.5), all of which it appears are part of the pretax number, the final EPS comes in at a much less impressive $1.3 billion pre tax, which at the company's indicated tax rate, would have been $1.0 billion after tax, or $0.10 EPS, a notable miss."

Amazing stuff right there how those accounting trick work. Wonderful FASB rules were basically removed at the bottom of the market in '08 to allow companies to improve their balance sheets to give the illusion that there is more health than there actually is. Of course they have not reinstated those rules now that the recession has been over since 2009.

Let's take a look behind the jobs numbers now - the Farce first - Jobless Claims Plunge; Home Starts Slump; CPI Flat - US Business News - CNBC. "The Labor Department says weekly applications fell 50,000, the biggest drop in the seasonally adjusted figure in more than six years. The four-week average, which smooths out fluctuations, dropped to 379,000. That's the second-lowest such figure in more than three years."

And now the reality behind the numbers - Economic Data Flood Summary: Claims, Housing Noisy, CPI May Return "Disinflation" Talk At FOMC Meeting | ZeroHedge. "Initial claims drop from revised 402K (as expected) in last week, to 352K this week, 50K swing in one week, on expectations of 384K. All in the seasonal adjustment, which tries to compensate for the 124K drop in Non Seasonally Adjusted claims. Fired bankers and everyone else no longer registers to the B(L)S." Add to that, "Decline likely “function of seasonal distortion,” likely “exaggerates strength in the labor market,” says BBG economist Joseph Brusuelas".

You all know my thoughts on the data manipulation BS that we see every week. Man is this all gonna hurt when reality bites back. The lies that will be exposed will be absolutely astounding. Remember I used to beat up China for being a farce and not being able to believe any numbers that came out of that counter? Well we have sunk to their levels (forced to by the Fed and its loose monetary policy and a government that regulated nothing that fueled the real estate bubble) and anything you get out of our government or its "subsidiaries" data wise is not worth the paper it is printed on.

Europe is just fine as well. They will be throwing $600 billion or some other ridiculous number at the problem and all is well. Where the hell all of this money keeps coming from is still a mystery. What will all this "additional" money cost us when it is all said and done? What will the expense be associated with the never ending debt accumulation be? What will be the catalyst to reverse this process? Where are the jobs coming from that will provide the taxes to pay for all of this? Be prepared people. As I said last night, the piling of more debt on debt to solve a debt problem does not work. They will give the "illusion" that all is well and that we're recovering and that all is fine when in reality the core supports are eroding under the water line where you can not see the worst.

One chart this morning -

Minis 4hr - See the rising yellow channel that kept up in the game all the way up (that and the FOMC Chart) is now giving way and that support is becoming resistance. The new green rising wedge appears to be promising thus far but is till in the experimental stage. It is a likely formation to occur as the overbought markets appear to be trying to rollover here. For much more detail on the market's condition please see yesterday's morning post which charts just about everything you could want to see.

As for now (as has been all year basically) you have to play the rise into the FOMC meeting next week. It appears the powers that be have all the spotlights on them and can do not wrong at this moment. That can change at any moment. We all know a turn is coming, so as I have preached patience, I will continue to do so.

GL and GB!

I'll add another chart and some speculation - All of this simply AWESOME news and the markets have only popped 5 points? Anyone smell a rat? A sell the news event? The markets should be soaring. Remember good news is bad news - why? Cause that takes us further away from additional QE. Why do the markets soar and really pop on bad news? Two reasons A) the Fed is supporting it overnight behind the scenes in the low volume period where it is easiest to do so and B) Bad news brings the promise of more QE.

I'll be watching the yellow channel and the green wedge.

Afternoon Delight 01/18/12 - Levitation

2012-01-18T17:39:00.001-05:00

For those looking to know exactly what's going on with the market please see my morning post from today. It is as comprehensive as you will find anywhere. We're nearing a major top. To all the bears out there, as I have preached from the beginning of the year, patience is required.

Following the Fed is the only plan and like a scratched record (for those of you old enough to know what one of those is) I keep repeating the FOMC Meeting Chart. Price today (for whatever reason) tagged the upper resistance diagonal and has met the price objective I thought would be "it". Price actually touched the side of my target circle I drew a few weeks back.

I have no idea what is driving the markets up at this point other than IMF or ECB lending and the hopes that the Greek default will come off without a hitch. I do know that something is not right. One of the theories is (in true bubble fashion) is that the funds rapidly leaving the EU are flowing into our stock market. On the other hand mutual funds are having a net outflow. Could it be unannounced stealth QE? The Fed did say they would use all "tools" at their disposal. Could it be the promise of more QE announced at the FOMC meeting next month? Who knows?

One thing for sure is the markets are acting like everything is normal and there are no issues that should derail it. Forget that we're over the debt ceiling AGAIN and that congress just voted (like tonight) down another extension. This will become a massive political hot potato and should develop into a major issue the way it was last August. You do understand this right? Our government is open only because they have stopped funding the pensions of their employees to keep the doors open AGAIN! I could go on and on here as you know, but let's not tonight.

I will go into the fact that the markets are having a record start to the year while earnings season thus far has been a massive disappointment. That should be enough alone for you to be knowing something is not right. Folks, something really is not right.

There is no good news. Bottom line is adding more debt to solve a debt crisis is simply not the answer, but it is the path we (well, the Fed with our money) have chosen. Denninger's take on the IMF proposing to raise its lending capacity by as much as $600 billion to insulate the global economy against any worsening of Europe’s debt crisis is simple, "There is only one way out of this mess: Governments must stop spending more than their citizens are willing to pay in taxes, and accept the temporary, albeit painful contraction back to sustainable levels of economic output that must occur." Market-Ticker

You see the treasury situation (that you never hear about in the MSM) continues to worsen. Let me briefly explain this again - the global Ponxi system - they buy our bonds, we purchase their goods with that money and the funding circle is complete - when they stop buying our bonds and become net sellers the circle breaks and we start PRINTING to make up for that shortfall. You need to see the charts in this post - China Brings US Treasury Holdings To One Year Low, Russia Cuts Treasury Exposure By 50% In One Year | ZeroHedge. This is not good when your nation's debt to GDP is over 100% and rising. That is DEEEEEP in the hole.

I often discuss corruption on the board and in the posts. Some dismiss these views and simply skim over the topic. Well it is time to wake up and face the reality that our government is corrupt and at this time is doing everything in its power to stave off a financial collapse that will be beyond historic. If you don't think your government is corrupt listen to this video with the convicted Jack Abramoff once the most powerful lobbyist in Washington. 'Congress corrupt to core' - US lobby probe scapegoat - YouTube (if you are lucky you get a sensational Ron Paul add before it).

Presidential Election -

What's coming here will more than likely be a repeat or worse than the August debates over the debt ceiling that led to the woefully ineffective super congress. Bottom line is after all the hoopla the politicians simply kicked the can to the next round of elected officials who come in in 2013. This has now become a political football that will reveal Obummer's failures as a leader.

WW III -

Sabre rattling or not you still have to listen. Bottom line as discussed here, Obummer needs a new war and it can;t happen this far from the election, so they pushed back the time table about 6 months. "Iran might pound Persian Gulf cities with ballistic missiles and use swift boats to attack American war ships in an attempt to dissuade a U.S. attack on its nuclear arms sites, a new report states." Iran Threatens U.S., Persian Gulf Cities with Missile Attacks - US News and World Report

Obummer Bashing -

See the election note above - he's now lost all control and because his spend and don;t cut policies he's now gonna be roasted by the republicans.

Police State -

SOPA DAY! Here are a bunch of links for you to follow regarding SOPA. SPOPA is yet another attempt (following on the heals of the NDAA) to give the government the power to quiet our voice and control the populace. SPOA is basically the right for the government to police the internet just like China.

"Lieberman characterized fears that the US government would use such powers to censor political content as “total misinformation,” yet goes on to admit that the purpose behind the agenda is to mimic China’s ability to “disconnect parts of its Internet in case of war,” adding, “we need that here too”." The Secret Behind SOPA Alex Jones' Infowars

Four key senators abandon online piracy bills amid web protests - The Hill's Hillicon Valley

Sen. Rand Paul Opposes and Will Filibuster PIPA Legislation Rand Paul | United States Senator

Sign the Google petition - I did - End Piracy, Not Liberty – Google

The best SOPA protest on a site I found today - TheOatmeal.com blacked out in protest of SOPA / PIPA - The Oatmeal

And from your standard police state fare - New York Moves to Deploy Body Scanners on Street in Search for Guns Alex Jones' Infowars

Chart of the Day - My working/trading SPX chart for a more detailed (and different) look than the usual. Overbought at tons of resistance.

GL and GB!

Morning Post 01/18/12 (SPX)

2012-01-18T09:28:00.000-05:00

Let's not mince words this morning and make this really simple - we're all fucked and if you don't know that and don't start preparing for the worst case scenario that's your fault. Quit listening to the lame stream media that wants you to buy into the hopium story. Good example - Liesman on CNBS this morning simply asking the question, "Do you believe the market will rise 30% on a Romney election?" Quit listening to the broker dealers and their advisers that count on you for generating fees to support their excessive undeserved salaries. It is all a bunch of shit.

Got that? You better. Tale it from the, "World Bank urges developing economies to “prepare for the worst” as it sees risk for European turmoil to turn into global financial crisis reminiscent of 2008". World Bank Cuts Economic Outlook, Says Europe Is In Recession, Warns Developing Economies To "Prepare For The Worst" | ZeroHedge. Did you read the AD last night? If not go back and read the opening section.

It is all about stimulus and how much money can be thrown at the problem. Folks, realize that we have been throwing money at this problem since 2008 and have done nothing to fix any of the issues. It is the banksters and Wall St. against you and me. The fraud and raping of the middle class wealth funneling everything to the financial institutions creating a new phenomena called debt serfdom. Quick note on the presidential candidates, Ron Paul is the only one that will stop this.

Let's do a full chart review like we did last week -

Daily SPX - Resistance diagonal (black) at resistance area (pink) with weakening underlying indicators.

The FOMC Meeting Chart - Now they have the EU meeting on the 29th that may extend the target date on this chart by a day or two. Then they have the (next to fail cause they always do) EU summit on March 09. I'm sure you are tired of seeing this chart by now and probably have it memorized, but so far so good and I think I have proven my point.

CPC Chart - Has entered the possible overbought zone for this new bear market.

VIX Chart - OK, I know the VIX Shanky? Yes, the VIX is worthless and busted and not really worth showing, but at these levels and with the possible divergence to price (moving in the same direction) that usually precludes a turn - I'm showing it.

TNX Weekly - This is as bad as it gets with the TNX below '08 market panic levels (and market prices are where? Really?). The bond market knows and is always right.

Minis /es 30m - That yellow channel support that has been golden since the first of the year is really being tested.

I'll keep preaching patience. We're close. Keep knawing on the bullet. I know it is painful, but the morphine (fall) will come soon.

GL and GB!

Afternoon Delight 01/17/12 - Strange Days

2012-01-17T17:14:00.001-05:00

Strange Days indeed! So Standard and Poors downgrades basically all of the EU (and then the banks get follow up downgrades) and the markets go up? Citi misses by a mile and the markets barely flinch? Look, I don't get it, but there is one thing that matters to the centrally planed markets driven by hopium, the eternal promise of more easing that comes with each FOMC meeting. That's right, every bit of bad news is received with cheers and market pops these days as they only increase the chance of more easing in the future. That's it, easing (Quantitative Easing to be exact), stimulus, a cash injection to the system that causes markets to mysteriously rise to heights usually seen in a bubble not a ~~depression~~ ~~recession~~ recovery.

What's going on that's so great the DOW runs up 60 points today? It must be that we're over the debt ceiling again, out of money and for a second time our government is having to "borrow" from the retirees pension plan to keep the doors open. Treasury Resumes Pillaging Retirement Accounts To Fund Deficit Spending Until Debt Ceiling Raised | ZeroHedge.

Let me explain what happened last time this happens and why it is directly related to why we ran out of money so fast this last time additional government funding was approved. When you borrow money you have to pay it back (well, to clarify in this unusual case where something actually gets paid back, in the case of your workers retirement plan that is). We ran a deficit, so when they approved the $1.2 trillion a wad of it went to pay for prior months of borrowing. Thus, what was supposed to fund us thru the summer, about a third of it went backwards. Guess what's about to happen again?

Maybe that is not it. Maybe the markets are celebrating What Rosenberg Is Looking At - Rolling Margin Debt Has Gone Negative | ZeroHedge. I don't know, the last two times this happened was in '00 and '08 (two fantastic years!). Here is the chart Rosie is looking at, not to promising if you ask me courtesy via zerohedge via Gluskin Sheff. .

AH HA! I found the answer. Just as expected it involves the ~~rumor~~ promise of a liquidity injection (this time in the EU with the LTRO). As discussed, the markets rise on the promise of more easing or printing of any sort. Also as theorized by STB they are gonna go large (the only problem with this is I thought they would do it as a reactionary measure to a crash which still may happen). How large? $10 TRILLION Liquidity Injection Coming? Credit Suisse Hunkers Down Ahead Of The European Endgame | ZeroHedge. February 29th is gonna be a big day. This will of course the follow the FOMC non event on the 24th and 25th. Then the mext EU summit comes March 9th.

Ahhhh, the cure all, just print baby! For those that don't get intervention and want a refresher on why the markets where they are and what the most likely outcome (crash) will be, I suggest you read You Can't Fool Mother Nature For Long: Financial Markets. This is good stuff, "Where would the stock market be if the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) didn't manipulate the stock market via massive purchases of ES S&P 500 futures contracts? These massive purchases are always executed in sparsely traded pre-markets, maximizing the ramp-up effect, which then triggers momentum chasing buys from high-frequency trading machines."

Presidential Election -

Speaking of strange, did you know that Ron Paul does not exist to the main stream media? I have shown you the MSM making believe that Ron Paul does not exist in the past and will continue to every time I have the ability to do so. This is simply unbelievable. For those that think the MSM does not try and control your every thought and mold you into zombies, you need to wake up. Here is more proof. Fox News Caught Completely Excluding Ron Paul From Post Debate Coverage Alex Jones' Infowars

WW III -

Apparently no one has their shit together, so we had to push the war back 6 months. Either that is true OR Obummer knows the war will be in an "occupation" state that we're all too familiar with from Iran and Afghanistan by the election and not a "war". Thus, postponing the war/invasion till closer to the election (no president has ever been defeated in an election during a time of war) will better his chances of reelection. Remember it is all about politics and power, it has nothing to do with anything else. Will everyone please check their crackberry to see if they are available for a war in 6 months?

Obummer Bashing -

And he's still the Democrat's best option? He's our second best option (to anyone)? Wait, he's still an option for being president again? "As the House returns Tuesday for the final session of his first term, Obama’s failure to fulfill this central claim of his 2008 campaign has never been more glaringly obvious." Partisan Washington: Obama's broken promise - Carrie Budoff Brown and Jonathan Allen - POLITICO.com

Police State -

This one is gonna freak you out, "How Does America Compare to China, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Other Repressive Regimes?" An Objective Comparison of the U.S. to Regimes that Everyone Labels Repressive - Washington's Blog. "Top constitutional law expert Jon Turley notes in a must-read Washington Post article called “We are no longer the land of the free”"

I have long speculated that we'll be a cashless society in the not too distant future. This way they will be able to track every purchase and tax every transaction. They will also be able to know everything you buy, when and how much. You should be concerned about this, very concerned. They are finding this out in India right now, "However, current events in India should serve not just as a warning, but also as a foreshadowing of the events to come in the Western world, specifically the United States." Cashless Society: India Implements First Biometric ID Program for all of its 1.2 Billion Residents Alex Jones' Infowars

Chart of the Day -

I would like for you to read my post Is Apple (AAPL) Headed For a 50% Haircut? that I put together this afternoon. It may be quite telling in conjunction with the way the rest of the indexes (and that Rosie chart above) are setting up.

GL and GB!

Is Apple (AAPL) Headed For a 50% Haircut?

2012-01-17T14:16:00.001-05:00

As usual, I only report on what the charts say, nothing else. If you can keep up with the news flow on AAPL be my guest, just check the twitter feed here Twitter / Search - aapl. Revolutionize this or that seems to be the common theme.

I can't argue with them as I love all my iProucts. We did get nooks over IPads and that appears to be working out just fine. Friends have switched to androids from iPhones and those seem to work just fine. Apple seems to be losing some of their dominance on the sector. Is the competition catching up? Who knows? I do know that this company has done incredibly well on the backs of a few products. They do dominate the industry. There is room to grow as the egg throwing Chinese are proving.

I do know one thing, technically on a monthly chart AAPL has begun the dreaded second sharper negative divergence. It is also the only equity with an overbought MACD that rivals that of gold. The rising wedge is ending.

AAPL Monthly - The rising wedge is clear as day. The lowest blue diagonal is a traditional wedge target diagonal once it breaks.

AAPL Weekly - Overbought with weakening and second diverging indicators. Nice channel on this chart off the $80 lows. Support areas are the green arrows.

A closer look at the potential triple top on the daily chart. Gaps are in yellow. More divergences indicating weakness.

First, you do nothing before earnings are announced. I'm not sure AAPL will come down on its own. It will need some help and it will get help sooner than later from the broader market. AAPL actually rose during the July/August swoon last year, and in the November swoon lost roughly 90 points.

AAPL announces next week in line with the FOMC meeting. These have been points where the markets have topped and had some nasty turns in the past. A good earnings pop may be taken right back when the Fed does not ease (again).

FOMC Meeting Chart -

Betting against AAPL has proven to be a fools game thus far. Do the charts tell of an impending "issue" to come with the tech giant? With the passing of the magnificent Steve Jobs, do they have the leadership to overcome any impending adversity, or did the company's heart and soul die with him? I'll be watching patiently waiting for a moment to short. It may be next week or it could be next year. One thing for sure is technicals don't lie and this puppy can't levitate forever.

Morning Post 01/017/12 (SPX)

2012-01-17T09:05:00.000-05:00

S&P downgrades the world and Citi misses bad and the markets are up and all happy like nothing is wrong. The minis cracked 1300 overnight and the round level has been attained in the futures. What sort of orders exist in this neighborhood is the big question.

STB has warned for weeks now the trend of rising markets to continue that trend into FOMC meetings, more recently the opex effect and of course of the volatility earnings can deliver. The only rational reason (which is no real reason to celebrate) is the eternal promise of more QE (easing/stimulus). The tide is slowly turning and the bears simply must remain patient. A massive turn is coming sooner than later and it will be of the 10% or more variety.

SPX Daily - 1295 to 1307 resistance area (pink). Upper black diagonal resistance just above. Divering indicators indicating this run is lacking underlying support. SPXA50 is over 400. NYMO is ready.

Minis 15m - 1279 support still reigns. Back into the yellow rising channel. I guess the main thing to notice is the conundrum that exists - see the resistance in the cash chart above and the support in the futures chart below.

FOMC Meeting Chart - Cause in a centrally planned environment, what else should you look at?

I'll update some charts today and see if there is anything else I'm not seeing. Many key technical things in this area.

GL and GB!

Open Weekend Post 01/14-15/12

2012-01-13T15:26:00.002-05:00

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

Not much to say from STB today. Support broke and is in the process of a tight backtest (usually you want a day or two and more of a fall first). As a bear I'm concerned about the FOMC meeting, opex and earnings results this week. Friday should have been a bloodbath, but was not. You don't have JPM miss following a bad jobs report along with an S&P downgrade of the euro zone and get that small of a reaction.

The central planners IMHO are scared as shit of this next move south. It forecasts to be a really big move south and containing it will require a monumental effort. It took all of 10 seconds following the bad news Friday morning before they strutted out a Fed president and started more QE rumors (standard operating procedure there). They are guarding/protecting something.

FOMC meeting chart -

A possible "Shanky Point" I showed Friday - Three converging support diagonals just under 1236 support near 1231on the 18th.

Where did they close it? controlled? Manipulated? This only happens in Fantasy Land.

Enjoy your weekend. get some rest. Next week is gonna be a real busy one.

GL and GB!

Morning Post 01/13/12 (SPX)

2012-01-13T09:29:00.003-05:00

Welcome to the Friday the 13th edition of the morning post. That alone should make for an interesting day, but when you throw in the minis taking out support and a JPM revenue miss, things quickly become more superstitious. Can you think of a better day to start a major slide in the markets? Remember, Monday is a holiday.

STB has been patiently waiting for the minis support to crack. Since first showing you the channel back in December and the FOMC meeting chart, we've been walking this puppy up one centrally planned stair at a time. The news is not good out there on many fronts, but that had all been subdued for the most part. It was only a matter of time before something caught up with the low volume quiet news grace period that beganthe year.

Following the dismal jobs number yesterday (399k to be revised over 400k next week) JPM now induces a dose of reality into the scene. For those that remember the farce that was the third quarter earnings for the financials, that ghost is coming back to haunt those that twist the rules and balance sheets. "Also, what DVA giveth, DVA taketh away, and with CDS tightening in the quarter, DVA resulted in a $567 million loss in the quarter. Yet even with the DVA impact exclusion, revenue, which was reported at $21.47 billion would still have missed estimates of $22.56 billion." JPM Misses Q4 Revenue, EPS In Line, DVA Loss Of $567 MM, Big Drop In Investment Banking | ZeroHedge. This is more than likely the beginning of the end for the big banks.

On a much more important note apparently everyone is dumping US treasuries. ""The question is what they are converting the USD into, and how much longer will the go on for: the last thing the US can afford is a wholesale dumping of its Treasurys. Because as the chart below vividly demonstrates, the traditional diagonal rise in foreign holdings of US paper has not only pleateaued, but it is in fact declining: a first in the history of the post-globalization world." Foreigners Sell Record $85 Billion In Treasurys In 6 Consecutive Weeks - Time To Get Concerned? | ZeroHedge.

Want more? Eurozone Sources Say Several Countries May Face Imminent Downgrade By S&P | ZeroHedge. With rates where they are, this is not welcomed news (but well deserved).

So, only the JPM news will rock the markets this AM. The S&P downgrade is just a headline for now, but will add to the jitters. The treasury sales are the worst, but markets will ignore this (well, not the smart ones in the bond market).

What did I mention yesterday? What happens as soon as any bad news hits the wire and also as we move closer to any FOMC meeting? Say it with me now, all at once ...QE! Good class, you are learning. The QE rumors begin right on time. CNBS discusses this AM the "unwinding of the Fed's massive balance sheet". The problem with that is they (along with you and me) own some of the most toxic and nastiest shit on the planet that you could not sell to a toothless man deep in the Appalachian mountains. No one wants this crap (yes, the same "crap" that congress scolded the big banks about back in 2009 - it all still exists folks)

You need to read this. It is very important. Is The Fed's Balance Sheet Unwind About To Crash The Market, Again? | ZeroHedge Read it twice if you don't get it the first time. This is the Fed trying to sell all the toxic hot potato shit that got everyone in trouble in the first place that has now had all sorts of bets placed against it. Our closets are jam packed with this stuff.

As for charts this morning, just two that matter -

First the magical minis chart - There is the yellow support diagonal and it is cracking far worse than on any recent move. 1279 support is just below. The next major support would be 1257 and gap support.

SPX Daily - Well price ran into upper resistance zone (pink area) and the upper resistance diagonal. Weakening indicators suggesting the strength under this move was waning. We've all been watching and waiting for this move to come. Now, can the bears make it stick. If so, a 3rd wave is upon us. It will be horrific and fast. If I am right and this is a third, somewhere in this move I have predicted the first of two market closures will happen in the great fall. Of course I am still looking for 1040 and the net big intervention to save this fall.

My concerns as a bear - the QE rumors running into the FOMC meeting, the upcoming opex and any possible earnings surprises (which look unlikely at this time). As I always caution, a backtest of busted support should be expected.

Minis 1m - Yellow support gone and sitting on support slightly oversold. Lower blue V-band getting abused. VWAP is right at busted yellow support.

GL and GB!

Morning Post 01/12/12 (SPX)

2012-01-12T09:18:00.000-05:00

Well, the minis got a higher high last night and as discussed here over the past two weeks the trend up into the FOMC meeting (as markets tend to do) remains intact for now. Stopping 2.5 points shy of the 1300 round level, the minis pulled back on the data this morning. Jobless claims get back to 399k (which will be revised over 400k as is the standard). Gee is that a surprise to any of you reading this? EU rates remain unchanged and they did not ease but will most likely begin printing again in February (thus the pop in the futures).

So, The jobless claims increase 25k and the markets pull back all of 7 handles? Really? That should have been a 20 point thrashing as the "recovery" takes another body blow. I'm sure our president did not like hearing that news. This also makes me think that whoever controls this number would like a new leader for this country after this next election (you have to connect all the dots).

My morning post yesterday was really the most comprehensive market position chart you will find on the web for this time. Everything in it will remain in play for at least another week if not thru the FOMC meeting and OPEX as these markets churn out this top. My Is Gold About to Collapse? post yesterday drew quite a crowd. You may want to see that one as well. It ties nicely to a potential coming collapse in equity markets.

Next week will be a huge week for the markets as it is a really big week for earnings. This is about the only thing that can derail my march to the FOMC meeting prediction (and opex). The question is did the analysts (that are in on the markets rise at all times game) set the hurdles low enough for easy beats or meets? What types of revisions and forward estimates will be set? You have to be thinking that while earnings may be neutral, the forwards will be miserable. Warnings are coming across the boards now that should have investors concerned (see WSM).

Let me explain a bit about earnings - they used to be real. There used to be a thing called an earnings cycle where the natural ebb and flow would cause natural highs and lows that would result in natural beats or misses. Now earnings are a purely controlled event where guidance is continually lowered (like thru the quarter and year) so the number becomes attainable. Stocks do not suffer due to these lowered estimates like they normally would, because QE rises all tides no matter the news (INTC is my favorite example). Thus price remains stable and the hurdle remains low allowing ...prices to remain stable.

Wall St. is in on the action. They want asset levels to rise so they can .....collect more fees and profit on rising equity prices. The analysts are in on the game and are part of the larger corrupt monopoly that controls everything market related. Don't think that the analysts are the only players in the game. The Fed, Treasury, Government and others all have an interest in maintaining the illusion the markets create that all is well. It is a massive game/cover up of the truth that our economy is collapsing.

60m minis this morning - The second divergence is upon us. The non traditional yellow channel support I have been showing for a couple of weeks now is in tact and is all that I am watching to key for downside action to begin or to signal that the top is finally set. When that cracks I will let you know and then we can start looking at some downside targets (which go pretty low). While the upper channel resistance could still be in play, and I have potential targets that reach to the 1310 area it is beginning to look like climbing to that point is not in the cards. 1277 level will be my second key a more meaningful fall may be in the works.

What could stop a move south here? Well, you tell me what rumors start flying just ahead of an FOMC meeting? That's right, QE rumors. Remember it does not take factual information to make this market pop. It only takes one well spread rumor. With the nation over the debt ceiling again and in need of more cash (they already spent all but $300b of the funds that were supposed to get them thru the election) the QE discussion will not be going away.

Remember to tweet #goodmorning and later #goodnight to your homeland security handlers. They are watching everything you do now. You might as well make them feel comfortable while doing their jobs. Since this blog has discussed bird flu (Whoops I said it) they will be watching you here as well so get used to hit. OBTW - hello handler. Have a good day!

GL and GB!

Afternoon Delight 1/10/11 - Postapalooza!

2012-01-11T17:26:00.000-05:00

Because of yesterday's debt rant (Total Despair), I got a little behind on the AD links. Today you get AD extreme. I'll try to keep commentary limited. Enjoy!

Market News -

STB has liked 1040 as an SPX target since the June top. I always appreciate others looking in that direction (and if the Fed would just get out of the way). The Cost Of Recoupling: 235 S&P Points | ZeroHedge, looking at 1050 fair value based on the EUR/USD.

Intervention? Nah, no country would just print money and dump it on the markets just to prop things up to make things look better than they really are, that's silly. Well, is it really? Bank Lending, M2 Money Supply Soar in China; Premier Wen Jiabao calls for "Measures to Boost Confidence in Stock Market"; US vs. China Money Supply - Who is Printing More? Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

How are things across the pond? Just read the title of this post, no need to click on it - German Economy Contracts in 4th Quarter; Spain's Industrial Output Plunges 7%; UK Trade Deficit Widens; European Banks Wisely Hoard Cash Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

In a must read for proper perspective 50 Economic Numbers From 2011 That Are Almost Too Crazy To Believe. My personal favorite, "#6 There are fewer payroll jobs in the United States today than there were back in 2000 even though we have added 30 million extra people to the population since then." Well done Obummer!

O-MFG update - Very interesting - Very very interesting - "Last week, the New York Times reported that regulators investigating MF Global’s collapse had widened their inquiry to CME, whose exchanges were used by MF Global. The Commodities Futures Trading Commission has been probing the disappearance of some $1.2 billion in customer funds from MF Global. Now, it’s reportedly looking into the CME’s actions in the days before the Wall Street firm’s filing for bankruptcy on Oct. 31. The Chicago-based CME Group owns the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the Chicago Board of Trade and the New York Mercantile Exchange." CME Shares Keep Falling In After-Hours; Is Breakup On The Table? - Focus on Funds - Barrons.com

This is really freaky stuff, glad I will not be around to see the end result - no wonder they want a killer virus to eliminate most of the population - Population: The Elephant in the Room; Peak Oil Implications on Population Growth; What Level of Human Population is Sustainable? Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Shanky, eugenics? Really? Population control? You are pushing it now. ""Eugenics in the US is something that's still not nationally known. People associate it with Nazis; they don't realize that the US did it too," Rebecca Kluchin, an assistant professor of History at California State University, Sacramento, tells ABC News." US eugenics victims wait for compensation — RT. What was that about the killer vius they developed last week?

Presidential Election -

Paul places second in NH and the rest are doing Obummer's dirty work trying to take down Mitt. Right now it is looking like a total disaster for the republiCons (other than RP of course).

WWIII -

Other than parking a second aircraft carrier and the coming US/Israeli war games and the past Iran war games and the bombings of nuclear scientist by masked motorcyclists all is well - oh wait - Hyperinflation Comes To Iran | ZeroHedge "And so the opportunity cost for the Ahmedinejad regime to preserve its status quo gradually grinds to zero, as the entire economy implodes (courtesy of a few strategic financially isolating decisions) making further escalation virtually inevitable, in a 100% replica of the US-planned Japanese escalation that led to the Pearl Harbor attack, and gave America the green light to enter the war."

Want to know almost everything you need to about the coming war with Iran? Read Guest Post: Iran: Oh, No; Not Again | ZeroHedge

Obummer Bashing -

Get this - Poll: Americans, 2-1, Fear Obama's Reelection - Washington Whispers (usnews.com)

Uh, even if Obummer invites you, an invite to the white house is something you don;t turn down (well, I would), but to this extent? "A White House spokeswoman, asked about the 49 empty chairs, said some invitees didn't show up. "Like with many of these events here at the White House, we invited representatives from outside groups, businesses and community leaders involved in this issue to attend, and unfortunately some folks invited were not able to attend at the last minute," spokeswoman Amy Brundage said." Event more for media than CEOs? - POLITICO.com president Rodney Dangerfield is at it again.

And why are most reporters accused of giving Obummer a "pass"? Well after signing the NDAA throw this on the fire, Homeland Security monitors journalists — RT "Also included in the roster of those subjected to the spying are government officials, domestic or not, who make public statements, private sector employees that do the same and “persons known to have been involved in major crimes of Homeland Security interest,” which to itself opens up the possibilities even wider."

Want proof they scare and intimidate the media to keep them quiet? WH attacks media reporting Hollywood party | Campaign 2012 | Washington Examiner

Of course the white house was not trying to keep things a secret - or were they - Depp, Burton not in W.H. visitor logs - POLITICO.com "The most transparent administration somehow forgot to log Johnny Depp coming to the White House?" said Republican National Committee spokesman Joe Pounder. "Apparently Obama's promise of transparency depends on the day, the event and what they don't want to disclose."

Police State -

The video in this post is simply unbelievable - you have no rights anymore - In a Tyranny, Even Pointing Out the Fact of Tyranny Is Grounds for Harassment - Washington's Blog. "As may anyone who questions war, protests anything, asks questions about pollution or about Wall Street shenanigans, supports Ron Paul, is a libertarian or holds gold."

You have a brokerage account or a bank account right? Well did you know that your broker or banker is required by law to submit a suspicious activity report on you if you, say, do anything suspicious or else he can go to jail? Have you inquired with your broker if he or she has narked you out to the Feds? How do you feel that he/she has the obligation to nark you out? "A Suspicious Activity Report, or SAR, includes details of any transaction that may be deemed ‘suspicious’. Naturally, there’s no clear guidance on what is/is not considered suspicious. Banks, brokerages, money service businesses, precious metals dealers… even casinos are required by law to fill them out." Guest Post: Why 308,127,404 Americans Are Going To Get Hosed | ZeroHedge

Seriously scary stuff- 5 Things You Should Know About the FBI's Massive New Biometric Database | Civil Liberties | AlterNet

Chart of the Day-

When the Fed does not want the markets to fall this is what happens (quite often actually lately).

I also did an STB extra post today on Is Gold About To Collapse? you may want to see.

GL and GB!

Is Gold About To Collapse?

2012-01-11T14:45:00.002-05:00

Hey, goldbugs, I'm just looking at the charts. I still think gold will go over $5,000 so don't get your panties in a wad. Part of what I'm theorizing is that when the markets finally collapse all asset classes get crushed initially, then ALL the money begins to flow into physical gold and silver. Right now there is no doubt that gold is still overbought (technically) and could use a correction (the current 400 points is only a partial correction). Silver has been pummeled, so why can't gold play catch up? There are natural support levels set where China and Russia first started coming in as bigger players near 1,100 or so. Let's take a look.

First monthly (/yg) 10 years. $270 is where we start this venture. From the low to high of $1,927 that would leave the Fibonacci retracements as 38% 1284, 50% 1,095 and 62% 905. OK, let's eliminate that 905 from the discussion now, not gonna happen although that long term green support diagonal off the lows as ultimate support would make a tasty target wouldn't it (if it did that upper blue resistance diagonal would have to hold and it would hit in March of 2013 - even tastier if you like the global collapse to happen this year). Please note the MACD at extremes and about to bear cross. Also note the falling S Sto and RSI. These should not be taken lightly on a monthly chart.

Here is a weekly chart that gives a closer look at the channel run in price from 2008 till it overthrew channel upper resistance last year. Note that spike followed the first failed debt ceiling debate and the end of QEII.

A closer look at the weekly chart shows what has my interest spiking in a possible move further south in the price of gold. Price has formed a descending triangle. Last week price bounced literally off the point where 1571 support and long term channel support meet. That was a major support point. Now comes the big question, will price continue either A) up in the long term green channel or B) continue to consolidate in the blue triangle and eventually take out support and begin a more severe move south? (that would have the bottom falling out in late January thru mid February)

The arguments for both are valid. The up side - Physical gold and silver will be the only things worth owning in a year or so as everything based in fiat (dollars) will be baseless, with financial destruction coming and throw a war or two on top of that gold should continue the rise. The down side - It is overbought and technically signals are there for a sell off, but more importantly gold is possibly the most manipulated PM on the planet and there may be forces (that for years have) that would like to see it lower before the price move up becomes uncontrollable.

Measuring that descending triangle you get a target near 1217. Does gold reach for its weekly 200ma near 1240 before moving higher? That monthly long term 38% retracement is 1284. This leaves 1217 as a very digestible target and well within reason. That monthly MACD and the falling weekly indicators still have some room to run still.

The daily chart shows a slight oversold price at double support with a diverging MACD (bullish). Here you get a great close up at the channel and the triangle.

So, right or wrong, like it or not, I just present the possibility that if gold should breakdown the 1220 to 1250 area would be a great place to look for it to stop. I believe that the major indexes will be topping soon and a larger move south in the major indices is coming. Will gold sell off with the markets? Is gold's descending triangle signaling a sell off in equities? Who knows? I just report what I see.

With gold being one of the most manipulated commodities on the planet and with the markets totally controlled but the central planners, this post may have been a total waste of time. I'll tell you this though, a few short years ago (before total manipulation by the central planners was implemented) if this setup had presented its self, I would have been shorting with both hands if that support cracked.

Just in case - If the dailys move and gold breaks north here, upon the bust of upper blue resistance look for $1800 as a target)

GL and GB!

Morning Post 01/11/12 (SPX) - Chartapalooza

2012-01-11T09:28:00.000-05:00

A storm is a brewin and it is just offshore.

Incredible! The futures are actually red! I was not sure that was legal anymore, but when you are the law I guess you can do anything right? One can only assume is that the Fed is ready to let things breathe a little bit. Don't get too excited bears, the /es is still in its channel off the mid-December lows. When that support cracks, then you can begin to look for a correction that will have some merit.

Yesterday morning I tweeted /es 30m Yellow channel up - 1277 support - higher high - all the makings of a blow off top IMHO. #Surreal pic.twitter.com/eXP2ptbU. So far so good. Here is a good look at the /es 60m chart and recent channel support. The blow off top can now be seen in the rise in RSI above the negative divergence. The double divergence in MACD is a killer. All that aside, none of it matters if the yellow support diagonal does not falter.

SPX 60m - Purple support and resistance diagonals for a non traditional wedge.

Daily SPX - Double top under 1300 round number resistance under the pink resistance area that extends to 1305 with weak internals is not a good thing. Daily indicators like RSI still can run a bit.

FOMC Meeting Schedule Chart - Markets just don't fall going into FOMC meetings. With the potential promise of eternal QE why would they?

CPC - I think we're in a bear market and the lows will be similar to those seen back in P1 ('08 bear market) area of the chart so a fall to near 90 may be in order before the bears are aligned to make a run at the bulls.

VIX - Hey, a VIX chart from STB! Don't fall in love with it, you all know I think the VIX is busted and a meaningless relic as far as the markets are concerned. VIX is oversold and I will be looking for it to form a divergence to price soon indicating a turn is coming.

Bullish Percent SPX - See prior divergences - Enough said.

Bottom line is that there is a very large storm brewing odd shore and it will not be long till it blows in.

STB would like to congratulate Ron Paul for a fine showing in NH last night! Keep up the momo folks, he's our only hope for freedom and the only candidate that does not represent tyranny.

GL and GB!

Afternoon Delight 01/10/12 - Total Despair

2012-01-10T17:16:00.001-05:00

What is not surreal these days? I report on varying topics nightly that are mind blowing in the sense that they can't be happening but do every day. I'm not talking about bungee cords busting or Beyonce's baby. I'm talking about things like insolvent banks running the worlds governments. Out of control governments printing and spending money like there is no problem with that. The Fed and Treasury in cahoots with Wall St. and the government to rig the equity markets to give the illusion all is well. The US government (or any for that matter) intentionally distorting economic data to give the impression that we're recovering from the recession. The US becoming a massive police state where breaking wind will be a fineable offence and they will have the detection equipment on every street corner and your DNA to prove you did it. Heck that is only in the US and I'm not going into global events.

Welcome to a centrally planned state where you no longer have any control. What is really freaking me out is that we'll most likely have Mitt as the next president. What is surreal? The fact that Obummer is even being considered as a candidate who has raised more money than anyone else (think about that for a minute) when Americans, 2-1, Fear Obama's Reelection. The fact that Mitt is a carbon copy of Obummer scares me the most. They all are carbon copies of each other (except Ron Paul which is why he's so scary - Oooooo). Plug-n-Play presidents that will do whatever the establishment wants when they hit the oval office is all this group of candidates are (Note: nothing related to the presidency here gets capitalized anymore). Nothing but lipstick on a new pig.

We are so, so, so screwed -

STB has addressed the need for one last massive stimulus. My plan was they would crash the markets in order for "them" to make the next stimulus vote very accommodating. This would lift the markets out of despair and into the elections relieving fear and make Obummer look totally awesome as a president. At this point it looks like they could not give a flip about appearances and may approve the stimulus regardless of appearances or what the American public thinks.

You see we have a massive spending problem. You know the one we tried to address last year with the August debt ceiling vote that was such a soap opera it got nothing accomplished. That created the super congress that in November accomplished nothing again. Well, they did accomplish one thing, they raised the debt ceiling and did not cut spending (with any significance). Do you realize we have spent almost EVERY penny of the last debt ceiling increase ALREADY!

Did you hear Obama To Ask For Debt Ceiling Increase In "Matter Of Days" | ZeroHedge. "But such is life. Here is the kicker though: the US has preapproval for $1.2 trillion in debt issuance, as per the August 2011 agreement. So far so good. The problem is that since then the US has issued $900 billion in debt in five short months! In other words, somehow the remaining buffer of just $300 billion, or a final debt ceiling of $15.5 trillion, is supposed to last the US until after the presidential election," Folks, WE ARE SCREWED! Dig this, "And even if the $1.2 trillion count begins from the new request, it still means the new debt ceiling will be breached some time in August/September, as we expected last year when we did the calculation assuming a $180 billion gross issuance per month ($900 billion in 5 months)."

The late night votes out of the medias watching eyes to lift the spending limits have to stop. The spending has to stop period. We have a struggling economy kept on life support by the Fed printing dollars to feed the addiction to entitlements and control the vote of the growing number of citizens receiving them. Hell, we're (the US taxpayer) bailing out the whole world while driving down the road to debt serfdom. No wonder the banks control the government cause they own everything lock, stock and barrel cause it was given to them on a silver platter.

Don't believe me? Denninger penned a post the you all need to read and will easily understand - It's Not Going To Work in [Market-Ticker]. Karl notes (and pay attention to the size of the numbers while remembering when a billion was a big deal in 2008), "The Federal Government has been adding more than $1.2 trillion in new debt per year in an attempt to prevent recognition of the ponzi-style debt babble that it, our Federal Reserve and our commercial banks all conspired to blow in the economy. The same Ponzi Scheme, run by a private enterprise (e.g. Madoff) will and does result in long prison sentences."

He continues, "It is not going to work folks; the $1.2 trillion that our government is taking on is one sixth of what would be necessary on average for the next five years, and for the five following that we'd need to double it again, to more than $15 trillion annually."

So, when does the madness stop and what will be the consequences of our government's inability to shut down the banks that control its every move? Well total disaster is one answer. If you are thinking anything other than some form of default you are still a brainwashed MSM believing idiot. Folks, financial doomsday is coming. We've gone too far down the rabbit hole of debt and there is no magic potion that will bring us back to reality.

What do you think they are banging the Iran war drums so loudly for? It will be to distract you from the financial collapse that has come or is coming. The war will accomplish the ability to default globally on debts owed to enemies (from both sides). If you think this is not in the works you need to think again. Add to that, Obummer wants a war cause that virtually guarantees his reelection. Oh, and for that police state issue I cover every night, well, I hope you are putting the pieces together.

On the blog I believe I have done a fine job remaining patient and keeping my temper with the recent ramp job that is upon us. Why not? We've been experiencing these moves for years now. QE (stimulus) induced runs that have no fundamental reasoning behind them. They are very frustrating especially (see the first paragraph) when you know everything underlying the move is false. A fraudulent lifting of the markets by a centrally planned group can not levitate forever.

The "event" that will rip control from those in power that I have been calling for since the beginning of the blog will come. It will crash one day. The only question is which crash will be "the" crash. I still contend that the markets can experience "the" crash at any moment or at best they will keep it alive till the first quarter of 2013 at best. Folks, I have only explained our debt situation above. I have not covered any other of a number of crisis here, in the EU, the total disruption of the MENA, Iran, China and that are being experienced in many other parts of the globe. The world is unraveling in front of your eyes. I just hope you see it coming.

We as traders and citizens will have to deal with the minutiae till the crash arrives. I hope your portfolio is prepared for something that looks like this. Oh, and that you own physical gold and silver. Monthly SPX - If it should get to 1370 (I don't think it will but you can never discount this manipulated market) the sell signals (negative divergences) will be screaming and you never bet against a monthly chart.

GL and GB!

Morning Post 01/10/12 (SPX)

2012-01-10T09:25:00.004-05:00

A STB PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT:

You must love Central Planning. It is the best for all of us. Just embrace it and let the love flow. CP is and has always been our destiny. Did you think you would be allowed to govern yourselves forever? Did you think you were capable of doing anything productively without the central planners being in control? Seriously sheeple, you can not be left to be responsible for anything on your own. You must have a great hand to guide you. One that makes decisions for the whole and not the individual. Being an individual is soooo 1776. Please submit yourself (and your gold and guns) to your local sheriff's office this morning and embrace the future. Don't fight it. If your neighbor does not comply, please call the hotline number provided and we'll gladly address that issue.

This ends today's announcement. All praise the Central Planners!
________________________________________________________________

Well, it appears risk on hit overnight on low volume while everyone was sleeping (like that is anything new?). Apparently some CP data manipulation out of Big Red (China) has the futures all in a tizzy. Some sort of trade surplus growth crap that is meant to fool those that still believe any numbers coming from any government.

What is more important is to follow the money in the EU. I have no clue what they will do if the LTRO is all gone, but one thing that is for sure is the CP's will find a way to continue to kick the can once again. "What is probably more disturbing and is to be expected, is that now virtually all the free cash from the December 21 LTRO (all €210 billion of it) and then some has been allocated to the ECB, where the Deposit Facility usage rose by nearly €20 billion overnight to a new record of €482 billion, €217 billion more than the December 21 notional. The question that should be asked is just what do banks know that lemming long-only investors don't. Hint - ask UniCredit." Euro Meanders In Overnight Session As Record ECB Deposit Soak Up Entire LTRO | ZeroHedge. Those deposits with the ECB rising should be a great concern to you.

The minis last night took out the 1289.25 high on volume that represents a holiday week. The markets are sick. Mainly what you need to know about the illness is it is caused by machines and mad men that control and manipulate price to their benefit. This fact you must come to believe and understand. This charade will not last forever. When the music ends the game will be over. I'll have to pen my newest thoughts on the end game as I have come up with some new and even more devastating visions.

One chart -

There is still a chance for a pullback then move up as the 60m charts appear to want (actually screaming for), but the bottom line is that rising markets only rise into FOMC meetings. Just follow the black vertical lines on the chart below. They represent the dates of FOMC meetings. A red arrow is coming. You will just have to wait and let it come to you. You can not make the trade happen. It will come in its own time.

The 60m chart had been working wonders over the past month or so, and the second deeper sell divergence that happened yesterday is usually a money maker (up or down). I'm not giving up on it just yet, but with earnings season here (the AA miss and the LIZ downgrade were greeted with a 10 point SPX up morning?) patience for the bears will be a must.

I have a many more thoughts on earnings season that I will get to in tomorrow's post. JPM is Friday. Maybe they are ramping the markets as high as possible before the b(l)anks report. Maybe they know something we don't (LOL) and are buying ahead of a "surprise" beat from the b(l)anks? Who knows anymore? I do know that a turn is coming and that embedding the daily indicators is not a option like it was back in the QE days. Patience padewan. The turn is coming.

GL and GB!

Afternoon Delight 01/09/12

2012-01-09T17:12:00.000-05:00

Big night for those in AL and LA and for the fans of college football. I hope you like low scoring defensive struggles. The total is 40 points, STB likes the under. As for a winner, you can throw a hat over them. Should be a great game with the SEC winning its 6th consecutive national championship.

Sorry bout that, after that most exhilarating day in the markets I got sidetracked. What is there to report on from the markets? Well the Merkozy meeting was a big zero. AA earnings (and the markets reaction to them) were a dud. LIZ and another downgrade brought nothing. Italy yields over 7% and consumer borrowing spiking were non events also. Even PIMCO's ~~Elmer Fudd~~ El-Erian: QE3 Won't Produce The Outcomes We Want did not budge the markets. Looks like the central planners have the sheeple right where they want them, on the sidelines unable to sway the markets in either direction.

For those laughing or doubting my central planning comments and my comments in the past that the markets are an unregulated wild west where the sheriffs are all bought and sold, I ask that you read Jesse's Café Américain: Forbes: Regulators and Trustees Suppressing Details on MF Global. "Instead of looking out for MF Global investors – and customers who are still waiting for their money – it looks like regulators and the bankruptcy trustees are busy suppressing information. Instead of full transparency, regulators and the trustees are holding onto crucial details that might tell us all who was asleep at the wheel when the broker/dealer and futures commission merchant (FCM) headed over the cliff."

For you investors I also ask that you listen to "Ann Barnhardt and Warren Pollock have an interesting discussion about the financial crisis, the setting of legal precedent, netting, settlement, and future trends including a possible bank holiday." Jesse's Café Américain: Warren Pollock and Ann Barnhardt Discuss MF Global and a Possible Bank Holiday.

I suggest you read (or at least click and look at the charts) 2012 – THE YEAR OF LIVING DANGEROUSLY - Washington's Blog (This is an old one but worth reading again).

Presidential Election -

STB is going ballistic tonight here -

For those that do not know who Ron Paul is this is a great lesson why. Media cover ups as to his existence are real. Let me prove this to you. First read CBS Reporter Blatantly Excludes Ron Paul From Coverage then see the facts for yourself in Poll Shows Battle For 2nd In Primary; Romney Keeps Lead which still twists Paul's strong 2nd place at 17% and really should be about the battle for third with two tied at 11%.

But then you have to ask, how does he not exist if, "Barely able to move through the restaurant as hundreds of journalists and videographers surrounded him on all sides, Paul ignored the questions being lobbed at him and slowly inched through the restaurant, offering a few autographs to supporters along the way." Media mob chases Ron Paul from campaign stop in New Hampshire - The Hill's Ballot Box.

Strange isn't it. Why don't they want him to exist? Is he that dangerous? Is he so different that real "change" would actually occur? Darn right he's different. A constitutionalist that wants to end the Fed - there could not be a better figure for the white house at this time. We must remove the rubber stamping politicians now or else.

Let's see what Judge Nap has to say - What If "They" Are Lying to Us about Ron Paul? - YouTube

And for those that do not believe there is voter fraud going on, maybe you should read this eye opener - Will Diebold Voting Machines Cheat Ron Paul Out Of 2nd Place In New Hampshire? Alex Jones. Who controls the machines?

WWIII -

Fear mongering, sabre rattling, positioning, call it what you will you should be very concerned about every development surrounding the Iran crisis. "War in the Middle East now appears imminent as the United States, Britain, the European Union, and Israel put the finishing touches on an embargo on Iran – a de facto declaration of war – and warships steam toward the Persian Gulf." Alert: Iran Crisis Headed for World War III Alex Jones' Infowars

Obummer Bashing -

I'm going off here as well - I covered this last week, but you need to hear more (and a lot of it) -

"The President of the United States is trashing the Constitution now day in and day out,” Levin said. Mark Levin: 'We Have a Constitutional Crisis' | CNSnews.com

"Now, the Founding Fathers said this is exactly what's supposed to happen! It's called "the separation of powers," and it's to make sure that things like this do not happen, that an all-powerful executive does not run roughshod over the government." The Lawless Obama Regime - The Rush Limbaugh Show

"If Barack Obama wins in 2012, America is headed for something worse than a failing European-style socialist state, top-rated radio host Michael Savage said on his nationally syndicated show today." Savage: Here’s what America will look like if Obama wins

Did you hear about the secret Halloween party? White House threw secret 'Alice in Wonderland' bash during recession

Police State -

A win for the sheeple? Maybe pissing on a woman in handcuffs was a bit too far and even a court could not allow this one to pass? "A federal judge ruled Monday that a Pennsylvania woman can go forward with her lawsuit claiming that state police pepper sprayed her, doused her in cold water and then urinated on her while she was in restraints, The New Jersey Herald reports. Pennsylvania cops do not have immunity from charges of urine, pepper spray torture - BlogPost - The Washington Post

Chart of the Day -

This is a a tough one, call it a test to see if some of you have been paying attention (like a pop quiz). Can you tell me what's wrong with this picture? (chart link) Hint - in the chart the dollar is soaring, TNX is falling, Gold is falling. Oil and SPX are going up. There is an acceptable two word answer for this question.

GL and GB!

Alcoa (AA) Technical Look Before Earnings

2012-01-09T11:58:00.002-05:00

You can go read the news and the noise if you like, I just report the technicals and what they say. Remember that fundamentals are dead. They are big fat FASB, unregulated, convoluted and corrupt figures (IMHO of course).

The technical take for AA is quite bright actually looking at the daily and weekly charts below. This take is in contrast to the overall markets right now as the broader indexes are set up for near term failure. Keep this in mind if AA should have good news after the bell and you chase it.

Daily AA - Quite the double bottom with strong buy divergences. No real patterns exist here. Price just simply violently fell into support near 9.60. The range (9-17) since the '08 fall and recovery is clear to see.

Weekly AA - Here the trading ranges are highlighted. The weekly chart has a small divergence that you saw on the daily chart. This says oversold. When the dailys and weeklys are working together that us usually a strong indicator some sort of pop should be coming. The weeklys DO NOT though have a positive divergence from the last major low (June '10) to this low. That is a sign that this price level is deserved and is not some sort of over emotional sell off.

Monthly AA - Dire? Oversold? Crushed? Some are looking at AA here and thinking they can print money buying at these levels. Well, short term there is a chance. Technically it looks like a pop may be in order, but as for some sort of ramp to former glory above $16 resistance- fuhgeddaboutit. Now a move to $16 would be prime, don't get me wrong. The monthly chart looks pretty ill and oversold but still has room for worse. Not as optimistic as the two charts above.

Now lets look at the INDU chart - AA is the first component listed alphabetically of course. Here is where my caution comes into play. AA is obviously one of the dogs of the DOW right now. The INDU has been setting higher highs in recent weeks and as an index is Compare AA's position close to the '08 lows and where the DOW is now. AA is weak and struggling to say the least compared to it's 29 brethren in the broader index. This is not good and I do not expect some sort of miraculous recovery for it to get in line with the rest.

Near term, obviously earnings are announced tonight, AA looks ready for a pop on the weekly and daily charts. What can it do? Well if news is good (doubtful for many reasons that I am not covering here - this is only a technical report) you should expect a decent pop but that may be short lived as the INDU chart indicates the index is overbought and giving sell signals. So, if news should be good, a buy may be in order, but that should be guarded and have stops under it, because it should be short lived.

GL and GB!

Morning Post 01/09/12, SPX

2012-01-09T09:25:00.001-05:00

Well two things are on deck today. First and most importantly is the Merkozy meeting that is happening right now. As most traders know these can be volatile market movers (usually due to RAMPant rumors from the FT or some other "source" leaked 10 minutes before the meeting has ended that usually end up being nothing bust a rumor). Second is that earnings season starts today with AA leading the way. You can find a handy earnings calendar here. Next week will be huge with the financials reporting. You can expect some wild action coming soon.

If there is one thing that I believe you can look at that is a barometer of safety in the world is where is everyone holding their cash. Think about this for a second (cause all your money is in a bank). If banks are not keeping their money in their own vaults and have moved it to their central banks, then is there something very wrong with the system. Is there some sort of massive risk out there that we are not being warned about? See, "the ECB Deposit Facility usage soared to a new all time high of €464 billion, an increase of €199 billion" from EUR Rebounds From Multi Year Lows On Merkozy Meeting, Short Covering; ECB Deposits Soar To Record | ZeroHedge.

Looking at the minis this morning in a 4hr chart - First notice the 1280 level is strong resistance. Second, notice the low volume. Third, see the weakening MACD, RSI and S Sto indicators. Fourth, the nontraditional channel (yellow) I pointed out last week where the support held price up. Did the blue wedge break support and a fall is coming here or can they push it thru 1280 resistance and keep the channel intact? I think the wedge is busted. (Of course a MerKozy meeting ~~surprise~~ rumor can spoil the bears plans at any second.)

The most telling chart in my chartbook is the DOW. For the index that holds biggest and baddest of the stock universe, it is the weakest by far technically. Where price has run to higher highs the underlying technicals are very weak.

Now look at the Bullish Percent SPX chart - Has it lied in the past? No. All is takes is for the SPX to hit a higher high and the divergence between bullish percent and price to be set. See the pink lines. When they go in opposite directions that is not a good thing.

Lastly, what I harped on all last week - the FOMC Meeting chart - Study it closely and correlate it to the BP chart above.

I did not address the exploding dollar (bad), high oil (bad), TNX low (bad) and gold rising (indifferent). The STB has spoken in the not to distance past that I thought the dollar and markets would directly correlate and they are with both moving higher. This is in direct contrast to the inverse correlation they maintained most of the past few years. Concerning for the bears in this move is that a rising dollar has been usually good for their case, but here the markets are rising with the dollar thus creating room for a dollar move south and for the markets to move up celebrating the resumption of the inverse correlation (a centrally planned move). STB just can't grasp the "move to safety" in the US fiat, but it is what it is until the Bankor comes.

STB is in full caution mode right now with divergences forming everywhere. The charts appear to be setting up for a pretty good move south. It could be today, tomorrow or at the end of the month, either way, some sort of larger move south is brewing big time.

GL and GB!

Open Weekend Post 01/07-08/12

2012-01-06T12:24:00.000-05:00

You know what to do, share the love and the knowledge. Remember this is the year of involvement on STB. Everyone needs to talk up the challenges we are facing as a nation and a planet and get the word out to as many as possible.

This weekend I will focus on a man who's opinions I have come to trust and value greatly. Read about Dr. Paul Craig Roberts (PCR) here. His experience and resume are very impressive, "President Reagan appointed Dr. Roberts Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy and he was confirmed in office by the U.S. Senate. From 1975 to 1978, Dr. Roberts served on the congressional staff"

Dr. Roberts has a wonderful post I would like all of you to read. The Dismal Economic Outlook For The New Year - PaulCraigRoberts.org. Do you like the title? LOL, what else would I deliver, right? No, I am not sick, just a realist.

In the post PCR addresses the year to come and why we are facing this destruction. "As the US government is controlled by financial and armaments interests and not by the people, the government responded to the financial crisis by shoveling more debt and more hardships on the American people in order that financial interests did not have to pay for their own mistakes and crimes. Instead of blaming the responsible parties, “our” government handed the bill to the American people."

He discusses, "In other words, in ten years the US economy was decimated by jobs offshoring for the sole purpose of higher rewards to capital in the form of multi-million dollar executive bonuses and large shareholder capital gains. A few hedge fund executives were paid a billion dollars in annual renumeration and a couple of dozen of them were paid $500 million in annual compensation. What sense does that make? Huge fortunes paid for one year’s work, not in productive activity but in destroying the financial system and the value of pensions that tens of millions of Americans had worked their lives to achieve."

He concludes, "There is no safety in a police state and a debauched currency. The comfortable world that Americans have known is falling apart at the seams." I could not agree more. Thank you Dr. Roberts.

This is the best (calmest and most reputable backer of reality) read I have seen yet. Please take a look. Below is part of his interview on Alex Jones Thursday.

Murder of The Constitution in Full Public View by Congress & Obama: Paul Craig Roberts 2/2 - YouTube

One of my favorite vids -

lemmings jumping off cliffs - YouTube

Have a great weekend.

GL and GB.

EUR/USD Update - Confusion?

2012-01-06T11:19:00.000-05:00

Looking at the confusion relating to currency movements - Why anyone would want either the EUR or the USD fiat is beyond me, but they are all we got (till gold reasserts its rightful place in monetary history). So, we cover them till they implode.

For long term charts on the EUR/USD see my earlier post here.

STB has long been on the EUR/USD call of a move to 135 then 125 then 116. Right now the pair is at 127 two points from the 125 target and from the 1.2572 next major low. It is also just above diagonal support off the '02 lows near 1.24 here.

After the backtests of the rising channel off the '08 lows it has been all down hill for the EUR/USD. Now the pair is thru major support at 129 and about to test lower channel support at the 125 level. When do they fight back or does the devaluation continue? Can they fight back may be a more appropriate question? There is pretty fat positive divergence going back to September indicating that this move south is tiring.

Here is the dollar at resistance testing upper channel resistance at the same time.

Bottom line is both are testing/cracking key levels with a final backstop just around the corner. If those backstops fail, parody is coming.

And how does a 20 year chart of the XEU and the USD work out? Amazing if you ask me (and some say central planning is impossible).

Right now it looks like they either reverse the recent process or a collapse is coming in the EUR. The question is will or can the dollar rally? That would not be good for the markets here. Dr. Paul Craig Roberts mentioned that they are strengthening the dollar and weakening the euro to prepare for a war effort which makes a lot of sense. On the other hand economic conditions across the pond are dictating this move as well (never mind economic conditions here - they are not important).

GL and GB!

Morning Post 01/06/11, SPX

2012-01-06T09:32:00.002-05:00

OK, so things are not adding up. Should the Lemmings be running in or is it that all the Lemmings have leaped off the cliff? "Investors pulled an estimated $132 billion from mutual funds that invest in U.S. stocks, the fifth straight year of withdrawals for domestic funds, according to preliminary data from the Investment Company Institute, a Washington-based trade group whose numbers go back to 1984. Withdrawals reached $147 billion in 2008 when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 37 percent, including dividends." U.S. Stock Funds Have Second-Worst Year - Bloomberg

Who or what is left comprising the markets these days is quite the mystery. We know the MF Global clients are out, but their money is still in (somewhere - no one seems to be able to find a billion dollars of "lost" investor funds). We know that there are trillions of QE dollars still out there. I really have no clue who or what outside of the Central Planning cabal's tentacles is in or out of this market.

STB discussed data manipulation and the ADP numbers yesterday. The jobs report was a ~~healthy~~ surprise this morning. This is another topic not really worth addressing as factual data is non existent. Yet, we have to address it because the ~~sheeple~~ lemmings are fed false misleading positive data. That data's sole purpose is to get them to believe all is well, and they should continue to pile their funds into the broker dealers so they can invest those funds so ~~the sheeple can retire securely~~ they can make billions in fees. If you believe a sub 17% real unemployment number you can leave the blog now and not come back.

What has really become another non event (just like every other data point in the universe except the price of oil and gold) is our debt ceiling. Here We Go Again: US $25 Million Away From Debt Ceiling Breach | ZeroHedge. This pic is about a year old (sorry I can't find an updated one), but you need to add another trillion to the list below. Surprised? You damn well better be (if you are not a regular reader here). What those numbers represent are your journey into debt serfdom at the expanse of a runaway train called the Fed/Treasury/Government/Wall St./banksters express. WAKE UP AMERICA! You are taking it up the rear and don't even realize it. When reality strikes it will not be kind.

This borrow and spend crap is still going on. Everything that got us into trouble in '08 is still going on (if not worse). They are papering (fiating to be exact) over the problems. Don;t believe anything you hear or read about the jobless recovery. This spending to fill the void while nothing improves economically or fundamentally (both are still headed int he wrong direction as they pick up speed) is a farce. They are fixing nothing and the debt burden just keeps on skyrocketing. We're in serious trouble and you better realize this.

Markets-

Earnings start next week. Lord knows what the lax FASB, low hurdle estimates will bring. The banks are sure to use Repo 101 to pad their assets to make them appear solvent. Sales numbers for the holidays from TGT and BBY were pretty sad, but I'm sure that will not have nay bearing on anything. As usual I will hold my breath for the first three weeks and then use that data and forward guidance to get our game plan for the next few months.

Right now the 60m divergences I have been showing for the past week are really screaming sell setting a smaller sharper negative move yesterday which follows a longer term of weakening data points. The daily charts are also setting up for a pretty nasty tumble as well. The two main issues are earnings and the FOMC meeting in late January. Can they keep the markets up into that meeting as the trends in the recent past indicate? If so, it will be a phenomenal short set up.

Another thing working for the shorts is the CPC. If this continues to plunge, then that combined with divergence in bullish sentiment may produce another 10 to 20% plunge in the indexes sooner than later.

Right now I'm leaning south near term with a 1235 target, but that is not written in stone. I'm preaching caution and patience. The markets have shown amazing resiliency and the central planners have done a great job sucking in the shorts. The SPX minis almost hit 1257 support yesterday then rallied on no news. There is a nice battle going on up here between the bulls and bears. This run is tired and I'm not sure how much the bulls have left in their arsenal. SPX 60m -

GL and GB!

Afternoon Delight 01/05/12 - Total Control

2012-01-05T17:14:00.000-05:00

Well, if you are confused, don't be. I know the feeling. The problem is that you are not in touch with reality. Reality check! Reality check! You must remember that you are now living in a centrally planned environment where nothing happens without some sort of hall pass from the Fed, Treasury or Obummer. It is a lot like living in China or the USSR, you just did not see the changes as they happened quietly and conspicuously over the past few years.

My how times have changed. Dump all regulation, change the accounting rules, crank up the printers and remove the 4th, 5th and 6th amendments from the Constitution and POOF we now live in a brave new world. When did all this happen Shanky, I missed it? Well, you were not looking and I can't rehash all of that, but if you google NDAA that will be a great place to start, or you can read America's Socialism Tsunami | Conservative Outpost.

You see the US may be a position where the treasury will have to borrow from its employees pension plans again very soon just to stay afloat. This used to be a problem that popped up every 6 months or so (like the Greek crisis) but is now becoming a monthly issue. Here We Go Again: US $25 Million Away From Debt Ceiling Breach | ZeroHedge. We have no budget. We have no spending controls. Things are totally done on a whim in DC and this, if not stopped by congress, will be stopped by default.

Why are we in such deep trouble? Why is it so unfathomable that the markets can go up? The main reason why is that we have a "slight" money problem. If you would like a wonderfully simple look at the current economic situation in the US jcspeiker posted this in the STB comments section today. Take a quick look at this and then you will have the answers to those questions.

The budget explained in simple English, trying to simplify a complex thing so it can be understood...

• United States Tax Revenue:$ 2,170,000,000,000
• Fed Budget: $ 3,820,000,000,000
• New debt: $ 1,650,000,000,000
• National debt: $14,271,000,000,000
• Recent budget cut: $ 13,500,000,000

Now remove the 9 zeroes and pretend it's a household budget and see how we are doing.

• Annual family income: $ 21,700
• Money the family spent: $ 38,200
• New debt on the credit card: $ 16,500
• Outstanding balance on the credit card $142,710
• Total budget cuts which some politicians are proud of $ 13

It's gonna take a while to pay off that credit card...how about we start by blancing the budget. (STB did not verify any of the figures and JC says he got it from a source on FB - I don't care - right or wrong it gets the point across - Note that total debt number now has a 15 in front of it, so it is not all that accurate and appears to be about 6 months to a year old - Note that budget cut is drastically overstated)

Market News -

The OMFG event has been successfully swept under the carpet for now, but it is something that we all must keep an eye on. They can't just get away with stealing over a billion of client's funds can they? "MF Global unloaded hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of securities to Goldman Sachs in the days leading up to its collapse, according to two former MF Global employees with direct knowledge of the transactions. But it did not immediately receive payment from its clearing firm and lender, JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), one of the sources said. "MF Global sold assets to Goldman before collapse: sources | Reuters

With earnings kicking off next week it is time for the analyst games to begin. STB reminds you that the analysts are in on the action. The "estimates" are low hurdles that are set to be meetable or beatable. I ask that you look at this chart (shorty be scared) from Business Insider And Now, Everyone's Freaking Out About Q4 Earnings, "And now we're heading into Q4, and it's deja vu all over again." Notice any patterns?

STB loves to cover pension and SS issues (being that they are both going to fail). This trend has been happening across the globe since 2008. This begs the question, without some sort of guaranteed salary in retirement how will we all survive? We can't afford to pay our bills much less save for retirement, and our kids, well they can't pay for their education much less find a job right now, not a good situation. "From early 2013, new staff at Shell will be offered membership of a scheme without a guaranteed level of pension." BBC News - Shell closes its final-salary pension scheme

Presidential Election -

This leaves me wondering what Gingrich is really up to. Seriously, what is the man trying to do? Is he trying to destroy the Republicon party's hope of unseating Obummer? Fine with me, anything that get Ron Paul to the top who polls very well to beat Obummer in a head to head match up. "Obama's campaign is concerned about these outside groups' potential to damage him in a general election. It would prefer a long primary battle on the Republican side and would benefit if Romney was wounded first if he ends up being the nominee." Odd allies: Gingrich, Obama align in attacks on Romney | Reuters

WWIII -

More saber rattling, this time from our side. Well, Israel's side at least. I ask, did the president pull the troops from Iraq so he could sent them to Israel? "Israel is moving forward with plans to hold the largest-ever missile defense exercise in its history this spring amid Iranian efforts to obtain nuclear weapons." US commander visits Israel to finalize missile... JPost - Defense

Look East? Really? "The strategy hints at a reduced US military presence in Europe, and says Asia will be a bigger priority. It also emphasises improving US capabilities in the areas of cyberwarfare and missile defence." Obama unveils new defence strategy with greater emphasis on Asia | World news | guardian.co.uk

Police State -

This ain't right. "Residents of Leesburg, Florida were shocked to see their local Social Security office turned into a random Homeland Security checkpoint Tuesday morning, as DHS officers armed with semiautomatic rifles and accompanied by sniffer dogs checked identifications of locals." Prison Planet.com » DHS Officers Armed With Semiautomatics Set Up Unannounced ID Checkpoint

Obummer Bashing -

It is all Bush's fault, right? Dig this - "Candidate Barack Obama criticized President Bush for using ‘signing statements’ to ignore the will of Congress. But Obama’s done the same thing 20 times since taking office, and his latest effort is rankling lawmakers." Obama Embraces Signing Statements After Knocking Bush for Using Them - The Daily Beast. What a guy!

STB covered Obummer bypassing congress yesterday in detail, something he said he would never do - Well, here he goes AGAIN! "President Obama will continue his campaign to bypass Congressional opposition to his jobs agenda Thursday by announcing a new partnership aimed at helping a quarter of a million young people find summer jobs." White House ‘Can’t Wait’ To Help Young People Get Summer Jobs - ABC News

Chart of the Day -

Sticking with the SPX 60m - You can look at any post over the past two days for more detail on what I'm thinking. Looking down near term with a possible pop to the end of January if it does not just let go here. Aiming for that little yellow box and 1235 as a first target. I've been preaching patience, and now I am losing mine (at least short term). Longer divergences followed by a sharp one do not bode well for the markets. The after hours action and the attempts at sell offs over the past two days were not all that comforting either.

GL and GB!

Charting Light Sweet Crude and The Coming War

2012-01-05T15:09:00.000-05:00

I thought with the recent surge in stock prices why not take a look at the correlated move in oil moving over $103? I guess the threat of war is a catalyst across all sectors. You know, one tide raises all ships kind of thing. Maybe the world's debt and credit issues worsening are the reasons for the market's advance today (that is a topic for another post).

I would not be doing this if oil was not at a technical point that did not matter (more on this below). I'm pretty sure none of this matters with the Iran situation following the Libya disruption, but you need to see what's happening in the charts.

Adding to the "why do this post when technically nothing matters" theme, I believe that oil has become one of the most manipulated commodities on the planet making millions for the likes of JPM, GS and the oil conglomerates. Bottom line is (thinking realistically and with some sort of common sense) it makes no sense with the global economic slowdown and consumption that oil is priced anywhere near these levels. Peak oil fears? That is an argument for another post.

Thinking along those lines, and if you doubt my manipulation claims as conspiracy theories, then read this, "Many see the price variations as a ploy on part of the oil companies to boost profits rather than in keeping with the market trends. The FTC investigation was triggered due to the fact that the oil industry displayed major profits despite claiming decreased usage of capacity." FTC Investigates Oil Price Manipulation. Then read Oil speculators made $50 million by manipulating price: CFTC - May. 24, 2011.

It is all about speculation in the price of oil and has nothing to do anymore with consumption. It is all about how many billions can be made no matter the expense to the consumer or what residual effects this has on the well being of those that live on the planet. It is about big money and little regulation in the trading of black gold.

UPDATE: "And as for crude going to $250 - yes, it may cause huge headaches for regular folks but for banks it means record bonuses, and as a reminder, the Fed works for the banks, not the people, pardon neo-feudal debt slaves..." Complete Cheatsheet For What To Buy Ahead Of QE3 | ZeroHedge

Want to lower the price of oil? Remove the speculators and allow only those with skin in the game, those that actually use the stuff, to play the futures. That my friend would bring oil back down to a reasonable price. That is not possible though cause your politicians that control all the regulation would really piss off the special interest groups that own the politicians. Sorry, big money wins again.

Lets look at some charts for the /cl Light Sweet Crude futures just for fun.

Monthly - Here the first thing you notice is the unprecedented rise to $147 back in '07. Times were so good that they could not contain themselves I guess. The second thing to note would be the price of oil in 1998, that would be $10.65. And now how do you separate manipulation from reality? The MSM spews that an average price of $85 is now necessary for most oil countries to maintain their entitlement programs. And things are not inflated now? Really? Think about that for a bit. Note that upper green resistance diagonal, it will come up later.

Just for fun I'll throw in a chart of the dollar to make you really sick. The math here does not work, and they say things are not inflated. Folks, oil running up and the dollar falling, that's not a good thing.

Back to oil. Here is a weekly chart. A closer look at the controlled channel rise off the bottom in '08 to the $114 high last year. Note that channel. More on that to come.

And Daily - The real technical reason for this post is here. Remember that upper green resistance diagonal from the monthly chart above? Look just above price now. Remember that yellow channel off the '08 lows to the $114 high from the weekly chart? Look just above price now. Well that channel busted late last year and is in the process of being backtested (just under long term (green) resistance). Folks that is a technical brick wall that can only be busted by ....a war.

So we have two things building, either oil and the economy are about to collapse. That is an argument that I can make and win. But the globalists and central planners can't have that. They are making way to much money and face losing billions if things go the wrong way. We can't have that. So, guess what's coming? Yes, a war in Iran would be very beneficial for those in control and oil will probably be going to a minimum of $150 pbl again.

Morning Post 01/05/12, SPX

2012-01-05T09:21:00.000-05:00

Well, we thought the markets would be down on credit issues out of the EU this morning and they were, till government sponsored ADP report came out blaring some BS 325k jobs surprise. You gotta do what you gotta do to protect those revenues don't cha ADP? This farce will end horrifically when the truth is finally revealed (but living in a socialist state built on lies and deception you can't count on that happening anytime soon).

The take on ADP report from ZeroHedge, "Oh, and proving the "validity" of the data is that the number was about 8 standard deviations above consensus - aka statistical noise." That can be compared with other recent data points that have been statistically off the charts meaning to STB, they are more desperate now than ever to ~~manufacture~~ ~~deceive~~ ~~hide~~ ~~conceal~~ promote the truth that this economic recovery ain't happenin.

You see what was supposed to happen this morning is the bond auctions across the EU were to have a tough time, and the EU crisis was to move back to front and center of market mews. What happened there? Well the French and Hungarian auctions were miserable to say the least and markets there and here were reacting accordingly, till they pulled the ADP rabbit out of the hat. Remember they have warned that they will use whatever tools they have available to keep the markets afloat. I guess data manipulation is the cheapest, most convenient and timely mechanism they have.

Earnings are starting to mess things up a bit as well. TGT missed sales estimates horrifically and MON (the devils right hand) beat amazingly. Folks if there is one company other than GS we need to do away with on this planet it is MON. They are ruthless evil people driven to control the world's food supply destroying everything natural to the earth as possible. They are bad bad bad people.

Earnings kick off Monday will AA, so expect some wild action coming soon. Remember earnings are another tool they use to manipulate the markets. If you think analysts put out honest "projections" and price targets, you need to wake up. They are low hurdles that should easily be beaten or met to fuel price surges and support markets. I bitch about this 4 times a year. More on this to come.

The next few weeks will be tough to forecast. We all know the need for stimulus is greater than ever, but with market valuations at these levels they can't deliver the goods. They need a crash (STB has been on this theme since June). One is coming sooner that later I believe. Will the financials pull another Repo 101 out of the hat and make projections or do they fail and the market fails with them? We all know this game revolves around the Fed and the central planners. When will they be ready to manufacture the next move south? Really tough time to be prognosticating right now.

SPX 60m - I still like this chart the best of all right now. 1235 first target then 1220 (yellow box). The 60m time frame has been working great lately for timing and, I'll stick with that till it breaks.

Minis /es 4hr - This chart is a bit more detailed being a trading chart that I use. Also the minis are much more accurate tracking price movements. If you can see it, we had a green falling channel and then a rising blue wedge that has busted. That rising blue wedge could also be a unconventional yellow channel (ignoring the move to 1195) up which price bounced off support this morning. Sorry I can not clean this chart up anymore as each diagonal is necessary. I have spoken of wads of support points under price at this level. I count 7 between here and 1207.

My best guess is that we get a pullback soon to work off the 60m divergence. I was disappointed we did not make 1257 support yesterday. It looks like 1264 may be a new support area on the minis. I'm still looking at my FOMC meeting chart contemplating some sort of move north till the end of this month, but relying on that alone with all the earnings noise to come is dangerous. Add to that the daily divergences are screaming a larger move south should be upon us sooner than later. Heck, bottom line is what do the Central Planners want the markets to do. If you think anything happens without purpose in the markets today you are a fool.

GL and GB!

Afternoon Delight 01/04/12 - Obummer

2012-01-04T17:07:00.000-05:00

The market news was really slow and market action even slower today. I guess after all the Iowa hoopla last night the only good news (not for Obummer) I could find to report today was mostly political. Congrats to my man Ron Paul for hanging in there proving he's a real contender that needs to be taken seriously no matter how or where they counted the votes.

One thing that is for sure is that this will set up to be a really strange year regardless of the Mayan Calendar or not. The election in November will top the charts most of the year. A market crash or two will happen. Record deficit spending will keep us all distracted from the real problems of the day. A few countries will default on their debt. Heck, that will all be routine stuff, for the really interesting things take a look at No Mayan Apocalypse in 2012 … But There’s Alot of Other Interesting Stuff Happening from Washington's Blog (whom STB thanks for its recent inclusion in the blogroll).

Market News -

OK - this is the most important thing you will read today, cause if the markets are down at the open you will know why - the EU credit risk is back on in full force - Hey, you will know something your broker won't. Call him and explain it to him in detail after reading this and the next paragraph! European Credit Markets Tanking Ahead Of Key Issuance Day | ZeroHedge Remember, the bond markets always lead (they are the smart ones).

OK, just read this one and then try not to panic. I've been discussing liquidity issues for some time as the "big one" in the EU. I've also been banging the drum as loud as possible that Greece is just a conduit (much like AIG was after the crash with TARP funds) to keep the rest of the EU alive. Read this carefully - "The fact that NBG is the “book runner” of this bond is further demonstration that no real account bought these bonds – back when NBG sold actual bonds to actual institutions it hired banks like DB to lead the deals for them. As further evidence of the “special nature” of these bonds is that the “Collateral Type” is “Govt Liquid Gtd”, which means the Greek government guaranteed these bonds. So just like the Italian bonds, NBG issued these bonds to themselves, got a Greek government guarantee (how can a country that can’t borrow, provide a guarantee?) and took these bonds to the ECB to get some financing. The ECB won’t buy National Bank of Greece bonds directly, they won’t buy Hellenic Republic bonds in the primary market, but they will take these ponzi bonds as collateral? Would A Ponzi By Any Other Name Smell As Bad? | ZeroHedge. Yup, things are just fine over there. No need to fear a default or collapse as long as this type of chicanery is going on.

Great news for those of you owning long legacy low cost basis (LOL - like that means anything now that you have been diluted to death) BAC - "Specifically we are looking at Bank of America, which with a forecast surge in Earnings from ($2.5) billion to $10 billion accounts for 14.1% of the entire change in S&P earnings forecasts." Stunner: Bank Of America Responsible For 14% Of Projected 2012 S&P500 Earnings Growth | ZeroHedge. Now the bad news for the rest of us - oh - you just got that. Two words - good luck!

Presidential Election -

The best news of the day comes from south of the boarder. This is really comforting considering his 70 to 80% hit rate. "Mexico's Grand Warlock predicted US President Barack Obama would fail to win re-election and two more Latin American leaders would be diagnosed with cancer, in a traditional New Year's forecast Tuesday." Mexican Grand Warlock predicts Obama loss in 2012

I think he's pissed. Looks like the next Apprentice will have to compete with the gloves coming off as the Republicans bash themselves into oblivion. Sorry Donald, you lose again. ""But I do reserve the right to tell the truth. And if the truth seems negative, that may be more a comment on (Romney's) record than it is on politics," he said, vowing to strike back by challenging Romney's conservative credentials in the weeks ahead." Gingrich still alive after Iowa, plotting revenge | Reuters

Is there trouble in paradise? Biden out and Clinton in? STB has been asking this question (or even if Clinton would challenge Obummer) for some time now. Press Questions DNC Chair: Will Obama Drop Biden for Clinton? | The Weekly Standard

Obummer Bashing -

Houston, we have a runaway president. This is serious stuff. Folks this guy is bad news. On Obummer's appointment yesterday of Richard Cordray to be head of a controversial consumer consumer financial protection agency, "Speaker Boehner called the appointment an “extraordinary and entirely unprecedented power grab,” and noted that the position “had not been filled for one reason: the agency it heads is bad for jobs and bad for the economy.” Unprecedented “Recess” Appointment Contradicts Obama Justice Department

OK, now listen to the man answer the following question. "When Congress offers you a bill, do you promise not to use presidential signage [sic] to get your way?" Obamateurism of the Day « Hot Air

I have referred to our fearless leader as the Rodney Dangerfield of presidents. I guess when you top the "jokes about you" list maybe I've never been more right (duh!). "But when it came to the top target of the 2011, Obama and shamed former New York Rep. Anthony Weiner came in first and second. Obama was gored by 342 jokes, Weiner 220." Study: Obama Is Late Night's Biggest Joke - Washington Whispers (usnews.com)

I am not even gonna comment on this one - Michelle Obama Jokes: "I Kind Of Like" Being Called "Your Excellency" | RealClearPolitics - Ok, I can't resist - I wonder what they are calling her in Hawaii now that she's gone?

Yes, I am a birther. Sorry if that disappoints some of you, but the man needs to present a valid birth certificate and not the one proven fake by numerous sources. From the home state of Georgia (you see, us southerners do have some sense) - "Birthers are hailing a decision by a judge in Georgia that could see Barack Obama struck from the presidential state ballot if Obama fails to prove that he fulfills the ‘natural born citizen’ constitutional requirement to be President." Birthers Hail Judge’s Decision That Could “Depose” Obama Alex Jones' Infowars

This section could have been even larger today, but I'll spare you (and save the ammo for another post).

WWIII -

All quiet on the Western Front today.

Police State -

To all of you storing photos on Picassa or elsewhere on the internet or on a cloud or on Facebook - you are being scanned and they know (literally) every inch of your face. ""One of the things that we learned at the workshop ... is what are the privacy concerns here and are the technologies currently being implemented in a way that raises additional privacy concerns or are they being implemented in a privacy-sensitive way," said Koulousias. "And since we don't fully know the answers to that, it's very hard to predict where we'll go."" Facial recognition technology poses privacy concerns - FederalNewsRadio.com

Chart of the Day -

I really think you need to read the morning post to see what I'm really thinking. Right now it looks like they will support the market into the FOMC meeting late January possibly ignoring the current sell signals on the 60m chart. Or the 60m sells off and then it rallies to the FOMC meeting. Calling a rally here is a dangerous task as if you look at the daily chart below, it has sell signals all over it. Very weak position for price right now at the double top.

GL and GB!

Morning Post 01/04/12, SPX

2012-01-04T07:34:00.000-05:00

Sorry, I'm running a bit late this morning. Slow news night, not used to that after the flurry at the end of last year. I'm sure things will return to normal soon though as The Bond King is predicting, "The financial markets and global economies are at great risk." Bill Gross Exposes "The New Paranormal" In Which "The Financial Markets And Global Economies Are At Great Risk" | ZeroHedge and when BG speaks you should listen.

That should be no surprise to STB readers. We all have done the math and know that there is no solution to the debt crisis at this point. The only ~~solution~~ thing they keep doing is piling on to that massive heap of fiat in hopes that the sheeple will stay in their pens and not notice that they are being robbed blind by the big banks and the crony capitalists.

Ron Paul did well last night. We need to keep supporting his cause as a true
constitutionalist that will end the Fed. This is what this country needs more now than ever. Restoring freedoms and ending the central planning cabal is most important. More of the same is all you will get with any other candidate.

STB received quite the honor yesterday being included on Washington's Blog blogroll. Most regulars know WB's fine work exposing the bloody truth behind the MSM and government's lies regarding some dicey subjects. Their work on 911, OWS, the GOM and many other subjects is some of the best on the web. I link to their posts in the AD's several times a week. I urge you to visit this blog every day as the extremely well researched and documented information you find there is vital to understanding how your government is not all that happy and protective thing you are led to believe it is.

FOMC Schedule - You all know that I love and preach following the Fed. This FOMC Meeting chart has been a wonderful tool for STB. I have used it combined with TA to make some pretty fine calls (if I may say) for some time now. At this moment it appears that a move to upper resistance (blue) at the FOMC meeting on Jan 24-25 would be a likely call and something traders should keep an eye on.

SPX 60m - This 60m chart is screaming turn with divergences, double top and the rising wedge being over thrown. This does not jive well with what I am looking at above, but there is plenty of time for a move to the yellow area or 1220 support and then one last potential rally into the FOMC meeting. This 60m chart has been the biscuits and gravy of timing the past two months as you can see. When one time frame is working well, don't leave it till it breaks.

SPX Daily - Working back to my move to the FOMC meeting thought. Although this daily chart is ready to turn now, it would look even better if they can manufacture one last move up into the end of January. That would set some really large all in short type divergences. We all know they want as much cushion before earnings are announced. The danger to that will be early announcements and possible revisions that should disappoint this quarter.

So to sum all that up - At this time you have to be leaning to the south with the 60m chart, but also be expecting the standard ramp into the FOMC meeting. You have to reevaluate this market every day. News is quiet now which helps the bulls, but sentiment is rather bearish with everyone on pins and needles. Patience, let the trade come to you. I like being short cautiously here looking to have an even better short opportunity soon.

GL and GB!

Afternoon Delight 01/03/12 - Back In The Saddle Again

2012-01-03T17:28:00.001-05:00

Let's get the ball rolling. STB is pumped to be back doing the AD's as they are something that I actually look forward to writing each day. Something about hammering the establishment and those in the central planning cabal really invigorates me. Remember this is STB's year of involvement meaning you need to get the word out to friends and family about the truth. Don't be afraid or sheepish, now is the time to be direct and blunt. We are out of time and the more in the know (stop them from being brainwashed by the MSM) the better.

Market News -

From the nuff said files - US Closes 2011 With Record $15.22 Trillion In Debt, Officially At 100.3% Debt/GDP, $14 Billion From Breaching Debt Ceiling | ZeroHedge. Of course in a centrally planned global economic situation nothing can go wrong no matter how big your debt is, so this is no big deal. Debt serfdom is a good thing right? Now move along and be good little sheeple.

But debt is not a problem. How could it be? Well, see for yourself what governments are facing this year in maturing debt that will have to be refinanced. "Remarkably, rolling over US debt is unlikely to be a problem. The same cannot be said for Japan. Because of demographics, pension plans will be net sellers of Japanese bonds. Unless balance of trade or tax revenues increase enough in 2012 Japan will not be able to roll this debt over at 1%. A rise to 3% would consume nearly off of Japanese revenues." Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: World’s Biggest Economies Face $7.6T Debt Led by Japan $3 trillion, U.S. $2.8 trillion; Rollover Problems in Japan and Europe.

So, my real estate friends that can't quite grasp that there is this thing called shadow inventory (and a LOT of it), take a gander at this lovely post. "If he’s even partially correct then congratulations, Wall Street; we’ve reached a place where the foreclosures would cause Housing Armageddon. Where the middle-class itself has become Too Big To Fail."" "Michael Olenick: Is Shadow Housing Inventory Vastly Larger Than Widely Believed? « naked capitalism (h/t Jena Marie)

You own a small business? You know the type that keeps America running and people employed so they can pay taxes and keep this country moving along? You got a credit line with BAC? Well, I mean, you HAD a credit line with BAC. Bottom line is this fits with STB's theory that the banks know what's coming. they know the financial Armageddon that will be and are acting proactively to get back what they can before the shit hits the fan. "Bank of America Corp., under pressure to raise capital and cut risks, is severing lines of credit to some small-business owners who have used them to stay afloat. "The Charlotte, N.C., bank is demanding that these customers pay off their credit line balances all at once instead of making monthly payments. If they can't pay in full, they are being offered new repayment plans for as long as five years, but with far higher interest rates than their original credit lines had." Bank of America severing some small-business credit lines - Wire - NewsObserver.com

STB really enjoyed this 5 part video series explaining how and where market manipulation originated, thru why JFK was assassinated to keep the Fed alive thru the intervention today that is the PPT (Plunge Protection Team). My conspiracy friendly readers will be locked into this post. Presenting The Exchange Stabilization Fund In 5 Parts: Is This The Real "Plunge Protection Team"? | ZeroHedge

Speaking of who controls this mess, why don't we take a deeper look at who CAUSED this mess, "Given that many in Congress and top government posts are multi-millionaires, the study might help explain why politicians seem only to work to make themselves wealthier and to help their wealthy buddies." Psychopaths Caused the Financial Crisis … And They Will Do It Again and Again Unless They Are Removed From Power - Washington's Blog

Presidential Election -

The Drudge Caucuses are open. Go vote for your favorite. My candidate, Ron Paul, is kicking butt right now. Of course that is only "internet voting" and all that mess. this is not real. The internet is not real and what happens here is not real. How bout the fact that they have to take Tonight’s Iowa Vote Count To Take Place At Secret Location Alex Jones' Infowars. Nice! That sure gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling.

You know they can't let Ron Paul win. HE'S DANGEROUS! OOOOOH, the presidential boogeyman! "The Ministry of Propaganda has chosen to suppress the only dangerous-to-the-Power Elites candidate by declaring him "unelectable."" The Ministry Of Propaganda Declares Ron Paul "Unelectable" | ZeroHedge

WWIII -

""Iran will not repeat its warning ... the enemy's carrier has been moved to the Sea of Oman because of our drill. I recommend and emphasize to the American carrier not to return to the Persian Gulf," Salehi told IRNA." World News - Iran warns US carrier to stay out of Persian Gulf. False flag or not, I got a feeling that we're gonna blow Iran back into the stone age one way or the other. You know what's nice about Ron Paul as a candidate? He'd let congress decide and not the UN or the ruling elitist cabal.

Obummer Bashing -

Today on Twitter some moron was tweeting obummer supporting notes that really irritated me. "What a fool" I replied to one. Touting no lies and this and that. Give me a friggin break. You Obummer supporters need to get a real reality check. Try this post on for size - all facts and no lies - unlike our fearless leader. This man is crushing America.

"During "the Obama Nation", the federal government has already accumulated more debt than it did from the time that George Washington took office to the time that Bill Clinton took office." The Obama Nation: Even More Debt And Even More Store Closings

Police State -

This is one list I want all my readers on - "According to the FBI, over 1.5 million background checks on customers were requested by gun dealers to the National Instant Criminal Background Check System in December. Nearly 500,000 of those were in the six days before Christmas." Americans buy record numbers of guns for Christmas - Telegraph

But of course gun control is coming (and in a big way), so why not work on the manufacturers while they are at it. You know, slow down the supply side? "He noted that ATF once issued a letter ruling saying a 14-inch shoestring was a machine gun because it could be used to convert a semi-automatic rifle into an automatic weapon. The letter was later rescinded." Gun makers baffled by ATF criteria - Washington Times

So, how bad are things getting? You read about it all the time, how our children are being taught to fear the police and not see them as those designated "to protect and serve." Charlton Library Sends Police To Collect Overdue Books From 5-Year-Old CBS Boston "Hailey asked her mom if the police were going to arrest her. Hailey says, “I was scared.”"

Chart of the Day -

Call it a hunch, but look at this chart and note me an instance where an uptrend has not continued all the way to an FOMC meeting? Nough said. January 24th and 25th are the magic days. That little red circle is a pretty good target at double resistance making a double top which will have nasty divergences in the daily indicators. If the markets fail before then (like they look like they want to), it will be a dramatic turn of events showing the market's mentality changing from hope of stimulus to disbelief in the Fed's powers ( which is impossible in the centrally planned environment).

GL and GB!

Charting the EUR/USD

2012-01-03T13:23:00.000-05:00

For the longest time (a bit early as I did not suspect the pop to 149 - I was looking as high as 143) I have called down to 135, 125 and finally 116 as my targets for the EUR/USD. You can plainly see the reason for the 116 call in the charts below. What may be wrong with that call is if that level gets hit and busts, the EUR is gone for good as that HnS targets 76.

Monthly - Long term 118 support with larger view of potential Head and Shoulders. Also showing LT support diagonal (pink). The really weak MACD and RSI double top in 10 and 11 signaled this recent move south.

Weekly - Closer look at the HnS and the falling wedge (green) that price is currently in.

Daily - Channeled into 128 support after breaking and backtesting yellow busted rising wedge. If this level goes then you need to look to pink diagonal support near 125 and then 118.

Hope this helps. Sure looks ominous technically for the EUR. That fits nicely with the financial, economic and political developments in the EU zone at this time.

Morning Post 01/03/12, SPX

2012-01-03T09:10:00.001-05:00

OK, so who is the Fed bailing out this morning? This pop in the futures just can't be from some good manufacturing report out of China. The last few times this sort of move has happened it was a Fed induced move to combat a near collapse in the EU banking sector.

Don't buy the hype/head fake folks. Yeah, they may make it work for a bit leading the markets higher and granting the all is well illusion a bit more time, but the world is in a world of hurt financially and economically. You name it from the euro to the dollar, from Iran to Syria and all across the globe things are a total mess and these factors will weigh heavily sooner than later.

STB is happy to be back at the desk hammering out the first post of the new year. I won't go all Mayan Calendar on you folks just yet, but you know the doom and gloom will be preached here every day. There is no reason for optimism or "HOPE" or belief that any sort of "CHANGE" will make any difference (what has it gotten us this far?). The one prediction I guarantee 100% is that the debt load of the past 5 years combined with our (US taxpayer) bailout of the world and the corrupt, unregulated and special interest driven government that is owned and operated by the financial powers that be will lead us further into the abyss of debt serfdom.

This will be the most important year of the modern depression era by far. As I have been forecasting the markets either fail at any minute or they get one last massive stimulus to save it thru the election and possibly into early 2013 (as the best case scenario).

In this chart I have been showing for close to a year now you can see the worst and best case scenarios I see playing out. You can also see the bears only fear, intervention (the latest pop). I will readjust this chart soon, but it will look the same as it has since the beginning. My call for a move to 1040 and then the last massive intervention for the greatest stick save of all time still stands.

This move today is setting up another massive divergence in the daily indicators proving the move is weak and unfounded. The bears may need to fret a bit near term as they get this BOY move out of their system. Patience to let this move play out will be rewarded.

The minis are showing a very strong 60m divergence and this move is looking more like a blow off move more than than anything. You can see the blue wedge moving thru orange resistance (some are calling that a neckline of an inverted HnS which is possible). I mentioned last week that the markets were at an interesting point where the bulls needed to make a stand at this point and it would make for an interesting trading period as the bulls must hang on here or else.

STB is looking forward to getting the AD's back up as well. There is so much to cover that is so important. As I mentioned inn the New Years post, this will be the year for involvement. Please do your part to wake up your family, friends and neighbors to the dire times that are to come. This theme above all will dominate STB (as it really has in the past) this year. STB also will do his part to get more info out this year via more posts on varying topics and more market coverage.

Best wishes to all this new year!

GL and GB!

Happy New Year! Involved

2011-12-30T16:00:00.000-05:00

STB wishes all a happy and prosperous New Year. I thank you all for your support and readership.

To the lurkers, maybe a resolution would be to start commenting and get involved. Share your thoughts and opinions. I was a lurker once. My knowledge blossomed when I became involved. You have a lot to give and now is the time to express yourself. Interacting and communicating is vital. I don't care if you do it here or somewhere else, just do it.

To the core, I can't thank you enough for your daily contribution to the cause. You all make STB the special place it has become. Words can not express my appreciation for your kindness, effort and what you bring to the blog everyday.

Involvement may be the key word for 2012. Sharing the love and the knowledge to make this world a better place (and make a little $$ on the side) is what STB is all about. The truth will set you free. We must enlighten as many as possible. I'll tell you this, you may not ever consider yourself a "protester" or "activist", but this is the year you may be forced to become one. Please do your part this year to wake up as many as possible to the issues discussed here every day.

I guess this photo will be it for the New Year posts as long as I am blogging. 3rd year now.

This has been posted here recently. Truer words have never been spoken. I suggest you heed them. Well worth the listen again and again.

GL and GB.

Morning post 12/30/11, SPX

2011-12-30T09:05:00.001-05:00

Let the fight to keep the major indexes positive for the year begin. Expect nothing else today. I'm thinking there is the possibility of a late sell off, but that's gonna be as slim a the volume or actual traders left in the pits.

A few posts you must read this AM to keep things in perspective.

Foreigners Dump Record Amount Of US Treasurys In Past Month | ZeroHedge, The global Ponzi is dead and the only thing supporting everything right now is printing or monetization of debt. In other words, the worst case scenario.

European Banks Close 2011 With Near Record Cash On Deposit At ECB, €9 Billion Overnight Increase | ZeroHedge. And they don't have their money in the domestic banks because? Beuller? Anyone?

$135 Billion Redeemed From US Equity Mutual Funds In 2011, 34 Of 35 Consecutive Weekly Outflows | ZeroHedge. And everyone is pulling their funds out of the markets because? (Gee I don't know with consumer sentiment rallying one would think money would be flowing into the markets not out)

Daily SPX - Just follow the support resistance line back to the beginning of the year. Pretty simple.

GL and GB.

Morning Post 12/29/11, SPX

2011-12-29T09:00:00.000-05:00

STB wanted to get thru opex and the 23rd then "all bets were off". This low volume holiday week is a dangerous time to be betting on the market. Heck, any week has become dangerous for that matter. The HFT algo bots controlling the system, the Fed printing to keep the illusion all is well alive, the ECB is "not" printing and all it takes is a meaningless rumor to move this market up 1% (never down on bad news mind you) in a matter of minutes makes for a bad mix.

I'm enjoying vacation. Although I have been under the weather and there is less snow than I have seen in my 20 years of coming here (that is a huge deal as water supply issues in the west may be a problem this year) we're still rolling along having a good time. Looks like some snow will be coming today. I'm enjoying a break from the doom and gloom, but have no fear I'll be back with a vengeance soon.

Daily BB's narrowing quickly indicating some volatility is on the way. Reversal off of solid resistance following the doji. Looks like 1220 area is first solid support. The explosion of the dollar and the implosion of TNX yesterday were not welcomed by the markets.

SPX 60m - A little more refined and drilled down view shows the wedge overthrow and current backtest support here. The is the area I was mentioning yesterday as a last shot of hope for the bulls and possibly a great starting point for the bears. If this support fails it is all over for a while I think.

Minis - That yellow diagonal is the same upper resistance as in the SPX charts above. Interaction with it is clear. If this fails there is little to stop price from moving south rapidly. This move should get sub 1200 and take out prior lows is not far worse.

This is what the backyard looked like last year. Not near as much snow this year with prairie grass and some dirt still visible which is quite amazing. Actually CB has more open terrain and is fairing better than most resorts out here. Plenty of foot traffic but not much spending as the shop owners I have spoken with say things have stabilized but are nothing like they used to be.

GL and GB.

Morning Post 12/28/11, SPX

2011-12-28T09:30:00.003-05:00

The wedge has ended.

GL and GB.

Morning Post 12/27/11, SPX

2011-12-27T09:30:00.003-05:00

Good morning -

I'll be around

SPX 60m - Overthrow

Minis 60m -

GL and GB

12/26/11, SPX

2011-12-25T22:46:00.000-05:00

Monday is a travel day for Shanky. STB is headed to CO for some skiing with the family. Crested Butte, CO to be exact. I'll still be working and posting in the mornings.

I've scrolled ZH and Drudge and don't see anything I want to address at this time. That will change with tomorrow morning's post. Still no AD's this week. Those get back going after the first.

I hope everyone had a great Christmas. We sure did. Thanks for all the kind comments and well wishes last week.

60m MACD and ROC divergences at this potential double top are pretty nasty.

GL and GB.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all!

2011-12-23T08:41:00.000-05:00

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all!

Morning Post 12/22/11, SPX

2011-12-22T08:38:00.001-05:00

In one of those strange and yet at the same time miraculous market phenomenons we like to point out at STB, "as expected retail investors have pulled money from domestic (and foreign) equity funds for 33 of the past 34 weeks, with last week another $4 billion getting redeemed as mutual funds, now unchanged for the year, somehow have to deal with a $133 billion lower cash balance than at the beginning of the year." Retail Investors Pull $132 Billion From Domestic Equity Funds In 2011, 33 Of 34 Sequential Weeks Of Outflows | ZeroHedge. And the SPX is down 17 points on the year. Looks like they are doing the most with what they have left. Remember how close the SPX and the other indexes are to break even for the year. This may come into play over the next couple of weeks (hint: it is a target).

I know this was posted in the comments section yesterday, but in case you missed it, Mark Faber: "I Am Convinced The Whole Derivatives Market Will Cease To Exist And Will Go To Zero" | ZeroHedge. I suggest that you read about the hidden (from the sheeple via lack of reporting from the MSM) financial nuke that will be the most financially devastating bomb to ever hit the globe. This has been the one point that has had STB in "total fail" mode since 2007.

If you don't read the post at least look at the charts, you'll get the picture. Guest Post: Worse Than 2008 | ZeroHedge. My favorite is this one illustrating, well, you can figure that out. Reminds me of that famous joke, "And all I got for Christmas was....". Folks that is a shitpot load of cash that has been spent and solved absolutely nothing.

SPX 60m - Well, it's baaack. The 60m divergence sparked by the spike last night (surprise) has the 60m set up yet again. This setup has called every move over the past few weeks like clockwork. The markets and minis are set to open above resistance this time (unlike yesterday where they got pulled back before the open). The daily indicators appear to be working their way back up at this time but are indecisive at best.

Even the cash 60m is showing a slight divergence while indicators are at a level they could possibly be tiring out.

Remember the Reason for the season.

GL and GB.

Morning Post 12/21/11

2011-12-21T08:20:00.003-05:00

Another numerology day and the day that marks the one year countdown to the end of the Mayan Calendar (Mexico Mayan region launches apocalypse countdown). Boy will we be having fun next year on this day and in the months leading up to it. Well, that is if the government has not shut down the internet, and I'm not in the Ft. Benning FEMA camp of course. Heck by that time every BD may have stolen all of our investment funds and there may not be any reason to be here discussing investments anyway.

So why the reason for the big ramp yesterday? Well the EU finally got some much needed funding to assist the liquidity crisis. Will this solve any core or long term issues? Heck no! "Below are select knee jerk responses by Wall Street analysts, which as warned repeatedly, are broadly skeptical for one simple reason: by delaying much needed ECB intervention, which is the only "bazooka" in this case, the solvency crisis in Europe's financial core will continue to escalate until the next time around it will require far greater stop gap measures. Bottom line - this solves nothing." What The Analysts Are Saying - Wall Street's Kneejerk Response To Oversized LTRO | ZeroHedge. Bottom line is print or die and then die because you printed.

You see, "Lastly, as a reminder, European deleveraing needs in the "near-term" are €2.5 trillion, meaning today's LTRO barely covers 20% of total needs, and is even less if some banks indeed foolishly decided to partake in the carry trade". Summary - LTRO Represents 20% Of European Bank Deleveraging Needs | ZeroHedge. So the party yesterday is met with the broad skepticism mentioned above and was celebrating a 20% max solution? As STB likes to ask, seriously? All that move for what?

I suggest you watch this, "video is 15 minutes long and well-worth watching. Platt is not a permabear by any means. He caught the rebound nicely in 2009 but now believes the prudent thing to do is completely avoid risk for the time being as better opportunities will come down the road for those who stay liquid. Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: $30 Billion Fund Manager Makes Case for Being Totally on Sidelines in Treasuries and German Bonds.

So who's not taking funds out of the markets? "Worldwide, investors have yanked $34 billion out of equity funds this year and put $75 billion into bonds." No Stocks Under Tree: Investors End Year Fleeing Equities For Bonds - Fast Money - CNBC - CNBC and that should leave you wondering who's playing, right?

I really suggest you read this and all the accompanying links - Constitutional Expert: "President Obama ... Says That He Can Kill [Any American Citizen Without Any Charge and] On His Own Discretion. He Can Jail You Indefinitely On His Own Discretion”

Hey, I guess when you are in another country you can have free speech and not be assured indefinite detention for no cause. Must be nice. Hugo tells it like it is, "“Mr. Obama decided to attack us,” Chávez said. “Now you want to win votes by attacking Venezuela. Don’t be irresponsible. You are a clown, a clown. Leave us in peace … Go after your votes by fulfilling that which you promised your people. Focus on governing your country, which you’ve turned into a disaster,” Chávez said, according to The Guardian. Hugo Chavez: Obama’s a ‘clown’ president - Mackenzie Weinger - POLITICO.com

So, my cautionary stance of the last few weeks is paying off. I warned to hold off till opex ended and then was willing to give them till the 23rd and then "all bets are off". That still stands. Duck and cover remains in full force (that is on perpetually right now). The LTRO is a stop gap measure that will temporarily solve liquidity issues which should give the markets some relief. As noted a long time back, measures now no longer generate sustainable ramps, but short bursts that keep the markets propped up.

SPX 60m - It took a long and strong move to drive price back thru 1220 but that was not an issue taking that technical level down. How bout that one day 61% retracement. Nice! Minis last night moved as high as 1249 after an 8 point spike in the 5 hr but that has been taken back to get price back under 1236 resistance. This move does open the door to upside potential in cash today, but the take down is not a positive by any means.You see the minis have fallen from that 1249 level all the way to 1228 at this point. that is a 21 point tumble. Not good. Maybe the markets are on to this LTRO being a bogus non solution and want to take advantage of selling at these higher levels? Note there is a potential SP (Shaky Point) overnight at 1200.

I'm watching the blue wedge here. It plays out when? Right after the first of the year of course. Sets up nicely for a churn from now thru New Years. Then down should be the only way to go and that is a massive hole below.

STB will be out this afternoon traveling to the ATL for Christmas with family, but I will be here Thursday and Friday. As mentioned all next week STB will be on vacation, but still posting and working from the annual trip to Crested Butte.

Remember the Reason for the season!

GL and GB.

“And the Grinch, with his Grinch-feet ice cold in the snow,
stood puzzling and puzzling, how could it be so? It came without ribbons.
It came without tags. It came without packages, boxes or bags.
And he puzzled and puzzled 'till his puzzler was sore.
Then the Grinch thought of something he hadn't before.
What if Christmas, he thought, doesn't come from a store.
What if Christmas, perhaps, means a little bit more.”

Morning Post 12/20/11

2011-12-20T07:21:00.002-05:00

Funny, STB loves confirmation of the wild and crazy theories we present here on almost a weekly basis. For those of you that doubt or think my ranting on the economic data manipulation are unfounded maybe you should read Bureau Of Labor Statistics Caught Red Handed Leaking Confidential Employment Data | ZeroHedge. "But at least the next time the market does its usual pre-NFP acrobats, the only question will be: which particular US politicians i) traded in advance of the embargo lift, and ii) leaked the information to ten of their closest friends, who did the same, who did the same, etc." This one is nice as it covers both data manipulation and the congressional insider trading and many other points we consistently call bullshit on.

Speaking of data manipulation maybe you should read Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Buyer's Remorse; Record Volume of Returns Before Christmas; $217 Billion Returns Expected, Up 14% before the next round of really bad data points are released that you should not believe. Anyone here remember the recent "revision" (you know the 20% markdown) in home sales going back to 2007?

Sticking with the corrupt/crooks/theives theme this morning another must read is Jesse's Café Américain: Trustee to Seize and Liquidate Even the Stored Customer Gold and Silver Bullion From MF Global where you get, "Get your money as far away from Wall Street as is possible. And if you want to own gold and silver, take delivery and store it in a secure private facility outside the fractional reserve system." The theme of getting as far away from the system as possible with you wealth is starting to take root across the interned and not n fringe sites, but with major players. STB has long been recommending you buy your gold of silver in untraceable amounts with cash and keeping it at home or is some very safe place. See Denninger's thoughts on this topic in Private Property Now Subject To Seizure in [Market-Ticker].

Want to see something that is really fucked up and will absolutely blow your mind? "As the following brief but must watch video explains, the ESM "is an organization that can sue us, but is immune from any forms of prosecution and whose managers enjoy the same immunity; there are no independent reviewers and no existing laws apply; governments can not take action against it? Europe's national budgets in the hands of one single unelected intergovernmental organization? Is that the future of Europe? Is that the new EU? A Europe devoid of sovereign democracies?"" Video Explanation Of How The ESM Is Europe's Uber-TARP On Steroids | ZeroHedge

Most readers know that STB has been targeting 1040 SPX for quite some time now before the next massive stimulus is released. Recently CITI came out with a 950 target and yesterday this came out Bank Of America: "Santa Is Not Coming", Sees 50% Chance Of Drop To 950 | ZeroHedge.

SPX 60m - It just looks like a likely point for some sort of corrective to stop the bleeding, temporarily. With the 10yr at 1.84, they need to do something fast.

Important issues -

Most readers know that I think a killer biological weapon will come with the next war (put whatever theory you prefer with this post). I was not surprised to find Alarm as Dutch lab creates highly contagious killer flu - Science - News - The Independent yesterday. Just something to keep in mind. Remember they can't afford to feed everyone and the entitlement state is getting a bit out of hand. What better way to remove a large part of the burden that to simply eliminate the problem under the guise of war with a killer flu virus.

In yet another police state development - The Anti-Internet Bill has NOT Been Postponed To 2012 … The Committee Members Who Support SOPA Sneakily Changed the Hearing Date to December 21st, Trying to Trick the American People Into Thinking It Was Over Until After the Holidays So We Won’t Fight Back! - Washington's Blog

Bloomberg TV actually reported that Ron Paul has the lead in Iowa this morning. It was of course a brief bit after a big piece on Romney, but a mention of reality is nice.

Housekeeping: As noted yesterday, with the holidays upon us the AD's are being postponed until after the first of the year unless something big pops up that needs coverage. I'll be here during the day, but with limited coverage for the next couple of weeks. Morning posts will not be interrupted.

Remember the Reason for the season!

GL and GB.

Morning Post 12/19/11, SPX

2011-12-19T07:57:00.002-05:00

'Twas the week before Christmas and all thru the house Shanky had a lot going on (as I am sure you do as well). You'll always have a post but not always have me this week as I gots some things to do. Those that play the Shanky vacation market crash trade you are in luck! The week after Christmas I'll be doing the annual trip to ski with the family in Crested Butte. I'll still be working from CB as usual. I wish everyone a safre and happy holiday season.

On to the markets. As you know we have almost fully entered the "all bets are off" zone STB has been forecasting. After this week I may go full blown duck and cover, but now that we're past opex I suggest you be at the ready. There is a massive hole for news generating events till the next FOMC meeting in late January. Unless Evans of some other Fed president starts really hyping easing (in a big way), I see nothing that can lift the markets or even sustain them at current levels till the rumor ramp should start mid January. What the bulls will have is the next two weeks will be super low volume and some EOY adjustments. Bears may have to remain patient.

You all know I'm looking for a major move south to allow for some sort of massive easing. DB has been looking for this as well. "So what does this tell us? The extremely low risk premium fully captures QE expectations. Empirically, they find USD19bn of new QE tends to reduce real rates by 1bps and based on this and a model of fundamentals and risk aversion parameters, they find that Twist was fully priced in last September and since then the current dislocation suggests another full QE2-style package of about $800bn is already priced into the market (ex MBS reinvestment)." We just hope the market is not disappointed. Deutsche On QE3, It's $800bn Or Bust! | ZeroHedge. STB is looking for multiple trillions. A major move with language there will be more to come.

Minis 4hr - See the pink channel? Bulls better make a move here with price recovering off a potential double bottom at 1200, they need to push price thru 1218 resistance and the upper channel resistance. If not it could get fugly.

Daily SPX - Right now I'm still looking for 1040 SPX and 10k DOW before the Fed makes their move. Let's keep an eye on support levels.

Remember the Reason for the season!

GL and GB.

Update:

Minis chart from the work computer - For those that doubt the yellow channel support diag I have been showing for months - here is the interaction with it this morning. For those doubting the 1218 backtest and how I have harped on that number (for months now as well) - there it is. Green channel resistance is just above and the red diagonal s/r (off the 1292 and 1272 tops) is there as well. Note the volume (or lack there of).

Update #2: My yellow support diagonal and the 1218 support/resistance in the green channel down - any questions?

Open Weekend Post 12/17-18/11

2011-12-16T16:00:00.000-05:00

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

MTV Martial Law Commercial - National Defense Authorization Act (S. 1867) - YouTube

"Viewers would be surprised to see MTV’s recent anti-Martial Law advert that ran this week. It’s part of of MTV’s ‘Think’ ad campaign, and is a clear break from the usual innocuous political content that we are normally used to seeing on a pop music network. The appearance of such a timely message here is somewhat surprising from the network whose unquestioning loyalty helped catapult Barack Obama into office in 2008, and may be called upon again to do the same in 2012…" MTV runs advert opposing Obama’s NDAA bill Alex Jones' Infowars

Sorry for beating the NDAA, corruption and the impending financial collapse so hard this season, but I can't let up. It is far too important and can not be understated.

As for the markets, pretty simple, crash to 1040, they get one last massive saving stimulus and then it all turns to dust.

"The managing director of the International Monetary Fund has warned that the global economy faces the prospect of “economic retraction, rising protectionism, isolation and . . . what happened in the 30s [Depression]”, as European tensions again flared over suggestions in Paris that the UK’s credit rating should be downgraded before France’s." IMF chief warns over 1930s-style threats - FT.com. I'm thinking more along the lines of gold confiscation. They always fail to mention the good stuff.

Right now it looks like the blue scenario is playing out. My time frame is not perfect, but the moves are right where they were anticipated for that scenario.

Remember the Reason for the season!

GL and GB.

A friend of mine sent me an email with the following, I think all are worth reading.

1. In my many years I have come to a conclusion that one useless man is a shame, two is a law firm and three or more is a congress.

-- John Adams

2. If you don't read the newspaper you are uninformed, if you do read the newspaper you are misinformed.

-- Mark Twain

3. Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But then I repeat myself.

-- Mark Twain

4. I contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle.

-- Winston Churchill

5. A government which robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul.

-- George Bernard Shaw

6. A liberal is someone who feels a great debt to his fellow man, which debt he proposes to pay off with your money.

-- G. Gordon Liddy

7. Democracy must be something more than two wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for dinner.

-- James Bovard, Civil Libertarian (1994)

8. Foreign aid might be defined as a transfer of money from poor people in rich countries to rich people in poor countries.

-- Douglas Casey, Classmate of Bill Clinton at Georgetown University

9. Giving money and power to government is like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys.

-- P.J. O'Rourke, Civil Libertarian

10. Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else.

-- Frederic Bastiat, French economist(1801-1850)

11. Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.

-- Ronald Reagan (1986)

12. I don't make jokes. I just watch the government and report the facts.

-- Will Rogers

13. If you think health care is expensive now, wait until you see what it costs when it's free!

-- P.J. O'Rourke

14. In general, the art of government consists of taking as much money as possible from one party of the citizens to give to the other.

-- Voltaire (1764)

15. Just because you do not take an interest in politics doesn't mean politics won't take an interest in you!

-- Pericles (430 B.C.)

16. No man's life, liberty, or property is safe while the legislature is in session.

-- Mark Twain (1866)

17. Talk is cheap...except when Congress does it.

-- Anonymous

18. The government is like a baby's alimentary canal, with a happy appetite at one end and no responsibility at the other.

-- Ronald Reagan

19. The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of the blessings. The inherent blessing of socialism is the equal sharing of misery.

-- Winston Churchill

20. The only difference between a tax man and a taxidermist is that the taxidermist leaves the skin.

-- Mark Twain

21. The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools.

-- Herbert Spencer, English Philosopher (1820-1903)

22. There is no distinctly Native American criminal class...save Congress.

-- Mark Twain

23. What this country needs are more unemployed politicians.

-- Edward Langley, Artist (1928-1995)

24. A government big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have.

-- Thomas Jefferson

25. We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office.

-- Aesop

FIVE BEST SENTENCES

1. You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity, by legislating the wealth out of prosperity.

2. What one person receives without working for...another person must work for without receiving.

3. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else.

4. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it.

5. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work, because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work, because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that is the beginning of the end of any nation.

Morning Post 12/16/11, SPX

2011-12-16T09:26:00.001-05:00

Here's a good sentence to start the day that sums up the central planning bankster takeover quite nicely, "perhaps it is not the actual mechanics of this liquidity bazooka but the perception that democracy itself has been suspended in favor of bank and sovereign survival" from "ECB Liquidity: Back-Door Bazooka Or Suspension Of Democracy, BARCAP Opines | ZeroHedge. In the AD last night and over the past several months my focus has been shifting weight from heavy market coverage to more of a balance between markets and civil liberties. Why, because with the impending global financial meltdown it is just as important to know how you will be effected personally as well as financially.

This sentence sums up the outstanding jobs report yesterday, "What the hell happened there? It looks like a hell of a lot of people got laid off and shifted into the extended programs as well. This definitely wasn't in the November numbers for the big report..... so where did these people (nearly 900,000 of them?!) go?" Heh Claims, Once Again in [Market-Ticker]. More data manipulation from government agencies to give the impression things are improving and all is well.

And as mentioned last night in the AD the markets did not react to the RIMM miss nor the Fitch Downgrades 8 Global Banks Including BNP, SocGen, BofA, Deutsche, And Morgan Stanley | ZeroHedge. Quite amazing to have the futures up 10 after those two AH events! With opex today and max pain 124 on the SPY they need some relief I guess.

As STB has been calling, patience for this fall may be required. After today the gates could open as all that is left to support the markets will be the PPT and some EOY positioning. After the 24th all bets are off.

Minis 30m - STB got the backtest of busted 1218 s/r after the hold at the LT support diagonal (yellow) and the 60m divergence with pink falling wedge underthrow. Now price is drifting with 1218 as the ceiling. If that should crack 1236 would be as high as I am willing to give it, but I don't think it gets there (unless we get some sort of major rumor out of the EU which should not come as everyone has taken off for the holidays). 1227 (red diagonal resistance should be it. If not upper green channel resistance should hold.

Probably the most telling chart to me is my SPX Bullish Percent chart. The divergences here in the past have not lied. Not the collapse in BPSPX and price is stalling setting a double top.

Financials still lagging while indexes are all over the place to say the least.

With the advent of the NDAA, the police state is now in place. I spoke to someone currently stationed at Fort Benning recently who was spot on with STB's thoughts and has confirmed the FEMA camp/prison is there. Yes, it exists. No, he could not confirm that there is a cell there with my name on it already, but he confirmed the existence of the camp. I will be having more discussions with local military (we have probably the highest concentration anywhere in the states). Preliminary summary is that the majority are becoming disenchanted with their missions and they will not fire on US citizens even if ordered to (this is the job of the local police hoodlums). Primarily they have sworn an oath to defend the constitution of the US. I have feelers out to see if this language changes. I suggest you read Ron Paul’s Constitutionalist, Anti-War Stance Supported By U.S. Troops Alex Jones' Infowars. More conversations to follow.

Remember the Reason for the season!

GL and GB.

Afternoon Delight 12/15/11 - Indefinite Internment

2011-12-15T16:33:00.000-05:00

The markets are a huge issue right now, but there is a far more important development we need to focus on. As for the markets, the EU summit and the FOMC meeting both came and went without any form of resolution to the crisis in the EU nor with more easing from the Fed. That leaves a gaping hole in the markets defenses for the bears to exploit. STB has been looking for a move to 1040 to come in order for the central planners to have the support (fear/desperation) to be able to deliver more stimulus.

I was very pleased to see Citi Near Term Stock Forecast: 9300 In The DJIA; 985 In The S&P; Sees Chart Analogs To Pre-World War Periods | ZeroHedge confirming a lot of what I have been calling for over the past 6 months. More recently I have been allowing the central planners to halt the current slide because of opex Friday and Christmas on the way, but after the 24th "all bets are off". My 1218 backtest call halted the upward movement this morning nicely. Was that it for the upside here? More than likely I think so, but we still have to get thru next week and 1200 round level support below.

After hours the RIMM disappointment and this announcement - Fitch Downgrades 8 Global Banks Including BNP, SocGen, BofA, Deutsche, And Morgan Stanley have not budged the futures. I guess big tech and banks no longer matter to the markets.

While the markets are important and probably what you primarily come here for, I must emphasize the passing of the NDAA last night. "Congress just passed the National Defense Authorization Act in a 283-to-136 vote. 190 Republicans and 93 Democrats voted for; 43 Republicans and 93 Democrats voted "against." Prepare to be arrested, without charge, simply because someone "up there" believes you engage in "terroristy" stuff. Good luck proving them wrong." "Guantánamo Forever?" - Congress Passes $662 Billion Defense Bill, Aka The NDAA | ZeroHedge

This is not to be taken lightly as every Constitutional right you thought you had for freedom of anything was just thrown out with the bathwater. Yes, no matter what the MSM says, you, your better half, your parents, your children are all now subject to indefinite detention for NO CAUSE. This means YOU. No, I am not exaggerating or kidding or pulling your leg. This is real. Welcome to the new Amerika which now more resembles China or Russia than where you lived just yesterday.

First you need to read this Explaining to a 5-Year Old Why the Indefinite Detention Bill DOES Apply to U.S. Citizens on U.S. Soil. You see, "You Don’t HAVE to Lock up Joey For The Rest Of His Life Because He Called You A Mean Name, But You CAN Lock Him Away And Throw Away The Key And Then Falsely Accuse Him Of Being a Suspected Bad Guy If It Would Make You Happy." So if I don't like you, and I think you suck and you have pissed me off, all I have to do is lie and say I saw a pack of foreign people go into your house and lie about conversations we've had in the yard about how you want to kill someone and poof, your ass is in jail and you have NO recourse - NONE. And they can hold you there INDEFINITELY!

What makes you a terrorist suspect? Hmmm, one would think you'd need to be foreign and have some sort of connection to a terrorist group and been learning how to fly plains or attain tons of fertilizer. Nope, how about this -

Sen. Rand Paul Speaks on the Senate Floor on Defense Authorization Act - 11/29/11 - YouTube

Where is your "president" with all of this going on? How can he stand for this? Wasn't he threatening a "veto" of the bill? You better check this out, "Despite reports that Obama is planning to veto the National Defense Authorization Act, Senator Carl Levin has revealed it was the administration itself that lobbied to remove language from the bill that would have protected American citizens from being detained indefinitely without trial. Obama Administration Demanded Power To Indefinitely Detain U.S. Citizens. So, are you still an Obummer supporter?

Don't like what I am saying, then read Rise Of The Beast System: 11 Ways That Amerika Is Becoming More Like North Korea where my favorite item is, "#2 The Department of Homeland Security says that paying for your hotel room in cash is a sign that you could be a potential terrorist. If you do not believe this, just watch this shocking DHS video." Whoops, there is another potential terrorist definition.

What happened to the Japanese here (natural born citizens or not) after WWII started? "Japanese-American internment was the relocation and internment by the United States government in 1942 of approximately 110,000 Japanese Americans and Japanese who lived along the Pacific coast of the United States to camps called "War Relocation Camps," in the wake of Imperial Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor." I suggest you read about this in Japanese American internment - Wikipedia.

Need a job? The FEMA camps are hiring - Internment / Resettlement Specialist | GoArmy.com

Finally I ask that when you have to time you watch this movie that will tie it all together for you. The police state has been in planning for years. They are taking over and the passage of the NDAA was one of the final nails in freedom's coffin. I know this really sucks and is not what you want to read or hear about, but I'd much rather have you informed than not. (Note the first 4 minutes is really slow - then it becomes a movie you will not be able to turn away from).

As for the coming war with Iran (no matter who fires the first shot) "Iraq has yet to assemble a force of jet fighters, and since the shortest route for Israeli strike fighters to Iran is through Iraqi airspace, observers conclude that the U.S. exit makes the Jewish state’s mission planning a lot easier." U.S. to leave Iraqi airspace clear for strategic Israeli route to Iran - Washington Times

Everything is done for a reason. If you think they don't need a war to distract from the coming financial crisis you better think again. If you think there are not more than 72 internment/FEMA camps empty and being staffed right now is not alarming you need to think again. If you think the passage of the NDAA has anything to do with terrorism you better think again.

And when "fringe" topics begin to show up on Zero Hedge, you know that something serious is coming down the road. Why don't you read The Poor Man’s Guide To Survival Gear | ZeroHedge and see where you stand.

GL and GB.

Gold -

2011-12-15T11:10:00.001-05:00

I thought I would do a quick post on gold since the charts are screaming at me.

OK - first I ma a HUGE believer in gold and that gold will eventually cross the $5000 barrier and more. I am also a believer that when the big crash happens and true capitulation occurs all asset classes sell off in a hurry. There will be no place to hide. At some point all the money turns and flows into physical gold and silver as total panic ensues. Then the explosion up occurs. Till then goldbugs may face some tough times.

Let's start with this from Stockcharts chartshhool - The descending triangle is a bearish formation that usually forms during a downtrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when descending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of an uptrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, descending triangles are bearish patterns that indicate distribution.

Now let's look at this daily chart of gold (/YG) - Target 1225.

And the long term weekly chart - Where is the weekly 200ma? 1226? What was the target of that descending triangle? 1225. Not saying anything but when you start looking for logical spots that one kind of jumps out at you. As I mentioned this morning the lower green channel diagonal has not been busted since it formed on 2008. Price is testing that today along with the long term 1571 support price.

Right now it looks like they have more time in the triangle to hold out to the end of January max. This lines up nicely with what may be the next leg of the market turning down. After the backtest of busted support, 1571, look out below both here and in the major indexes.

A last caveat - I have seen these patterns break north, so there is no guarantee that the above will occur. It just looks like a really good textbook set up.

Morning Post 12/15/11

2011-12-15T09:29:00.000-05:00

Holy shit - 10 days till Christmas. Meaning we're two days into that 12 days of Christmas song that I can not stand. I bet my readers can rewrite that one rather quickly. Here is a quick effort by me. Feel free to leave your suggestions in the comments section. I could not work in the Vespas or extra ammo.

On the first day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
A big Big Berkey (water filter).

On the second day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Two AR-15's,

On the third day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Three packs of survival seeds,

On the fourth day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Four carrier birds (cause the internet and communications will be cut off),

On the fifth day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Five gold (not tungsten) bars,

On the sixth day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Six geese a-laying (need the eggs so they get to stay in the song),

On the seventh day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Seven years supply of food,

On the eighth day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Eight cows for the maids a-milking,

On the ninth day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Nine ladies dancing (I personally like this one so they can stay - clothing is optional),

On the tenth day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Ten pounds of silver coins,

On the eleventh day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Eleven pipers piping the legalized marijuana,

On the twelfth day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Twelve drummers drumming the prison march for all the crooked politicians and banksters headed off to their rightful place behind bars.

Last night in the AD I gave you, "As for right now - See that small pink wedge with the underthrow and cracking the lower Green channel support? Now see the divergences on MACD and RSI. Either this is a blow off bottom with round level 1200 and LT diagonal (yellow) support or it is about to puke up a lung. With the dollar exploding, the TNX in full submission mode and the daily indicators looking rather ill, full puke may be in order sooner than later. 1218 was a major hurdle for the bears and that yellow line is next. I'm still thinking they try to support it thru OPEX or Christmas, but that may be too much to ask."

All day yesterday I spoke of at least a backtest of 1218 (you should always expect the backtest of support or resistance) and the possibility that the PPT does their best to support the market at least thru the 24th. OPEX max pain for the SPY is $124 so that's 1240 SPX. That is right above 1236 resistance. I don't think they can get it there, but that is what I would be considering if they can somehow push it back thru 1218 resistance.

Gold - Gold is at a MAJOR support point right now. I mean MAJOR! This is important as you can tell by the support level in the chart below. 1571 support goes all the way back to April.

More importantly that green support diagonal goes back to 2008 and has not busted once in the past 3 years. If that green diagonal cracks, that would be a major signal to me that something big is coming. Remember STB is a huge proponent of owning physical gold and silver (I think the paper owners will all get the shaft). As part of my big crash call once I get my "event" is that every asset class sells off massively in true capitulation, then gold and silver stop and rebound and the rush into the PM's will be like nothing you have ever seen before.

Note for those looking to buy gold or silver (my buddy CB asked this yesterday) - As mentioned I think there will be a big swoon, but when the funds leave the market and everyone wants out of the crashing dollar (fiat) gold and silver will be the place to go. I think dollar cost averaging in starting here would be a good idea. Price should not be as much of a concern as having the PM. Supply will go very quickly after the crash. I prefer silver coins and ammo as they will be very "barterable" when the time comes (touch to cut up a gold eagle for a loaf of bread). I personally think everyone should have the Midas Resources Survival Bag of 1,000 Dimes.

Remember the Reason for the season!

GL and GB.

Afternoon Delight 12/14/11 - Anything Goes

2011-12-14T18:04:00.002-05:00

I think they are out of bullets at this time and will do what they can thru the PPT to support the markets thru Friday's OPEX and possibly the 24th, but as I have been saying after that all bets are off. The EU summit failed and the Fed is (has been since October) stepping out of the supporting the EU (at least in rhetoric). There is nothing left to support price. Heck all that has supported price recently were unfounded rumors of salvation and hope. Now we just let the liquidity boa squeeze the life out of the ECB and the EU banks.

SPX E-Mini 60m - Back at the early November top I was calling for a drop and pop to set divergences on the daily indicators before a major move south would happen. That is set now. As for right now - See that small pink wedge with the underthrow and cracking the lower Green channel support? Now see the divergences on MACD and RSI.

Either this is a blow off bottom with round level 1200 and LT diagonal (yellow) support or it is about to puke up a lung. With the dollar exploding, the TNX in full submission mode and the daily indicators looking rather ill, full puke may be in order sooner than later. 1218 was a major hurdle for the bears and that yellow line is next. I'm still thinking they try to support it thru OPEX or Christmas, but that may be too much to ask.

Let's just view a few headlines from this afternoon -

Bernanke Is "Very Concerned" About Europe, Won't Bail Out European Banks | ZeroHedge

Germany Preparing Plans For Commerzbank Bail Out | ZeroHedge

Remember the Monday ramp that came for no reason about two weeks ago and then had a follow thru Wednesday that moved the DOW from 11,300 to over 1200 for no apparent reason (other than for the insiders to make a killing)? Fitch Downgrades Credit Agricole To A+, Outlook Stable | ZeroHedge "As a reminder, it is our hypothesis that it was none other than Credit Agricole who was bailed out by the coordinated central bank action two weeks ago"

Fitch Downgrades Five European Banks - CNBC "The firm said the downgrades reflect the "broader phenomenon of stronger headwinds facing the banking industry as a whole. Exposure to troubled euro zone countries through their subsidiaries was a direct consideration in the downgrades of Danske Bank and Credit Agricole.""

Greek Bankruptcy Imminent? | ZeroHedge GREEK CREDITOR COMMITTEE MAY FORMALLY HIRE BLACKSTONE THIS WEEK

I've been saying after Christmas all bets are off. With the next FOMC meeting not until January 24-25 and the next meaningless EU summit until March there is a gap wide enough the bears can drive a D9 thru it right now. Many know I have been on the 1040 big crash train for quite some time and now just may be the bear's chance.

My theory was that in November the real crash would happen (sorry, my bad, I only got 12% fall in SPX - and if you read about the 800 point intervention above you will know the only reason I missed) in time for the Super Committee to justify massive easing. Well it turned out the SC was a total dud and they did nothing. As DB and many others have suggested (after STB I may add) they need to manufacture a crash in order to get the easing necessary to save the system for another year or thru the election in November. I think easing will come as a last ditch effort to save everything. It will be massive, but this will be the final undoing as no one can afford to pay anything back that they already owe.

For those that know I have been on the 1040 SPX train for quite some time now - This fits the bill and confirms a bunch of my theory, Citi Near Term Stock Forecast: 9300 In The DJIA; 985 In The S&P; Sees Chart Analogs To Pre-World War Periods | ZeroHedge

What does more easing get us? Remember I used to end posts with Konichiwa Bitchez? "So how will Japan ever get out of this? They won't -- they're mortally wounded with a piece of saran wrap over the sucking chest wound that they inflicted on themselves. As soon as someone tears it off or they move the wrong way and break the seal they're finished." Just Consider This Folks... (Fed) in [Market-Ticker]

I'm pretty sure I have posted this already, but just in case you missed it - "The National Association of Realtors said a benchmarking exercise had revealed that some properties were listed more than once, and in some instances, new home sales were also captured." Realtors: We Overcounted Home Sales for Five Years - US Business News - CNBC. All I can think of is they have something up their sleeve that will allow them to make even more rosier projections in the future with the "realigned" data. There is a scam in there somewhere.

For those of you (suckers) that believe in long term hold scenario and love stocks (I assume not too many readers here) you may want to read the pundits All Together Now: 10 Stocks For 2012 | The Big Picture. IMO, if you short them all out of the gates (this is not a recommendation) you should do better than buying them to hold. Tread with caution here.

WWIII -

Read China-Based Hacking of 760 Companies Shows Cyber Cold War - BusinessWeek

Obummer Bashing -

Here we go AGAIN and AGAIN and AGAIN - "The Obama administration is alerting employees to the possibility of a partial government shutdown if talks on bills to fund the government and extend the payroll tax cut collapse later this week." Government shutdown preparations begin as funding talks stall - The Federal Eye - The Washington Post. Leadership at its finest! Budget? What budget (for over 900 days)?

You see the failure of the Super Committee (which needed massive intervention to approve a years worth of funding - which we did not get - why not Obummer has already spent more that like all the presidents before him combined or something as absurd as that - which blew my call - which proves we have worthless representation that can't get their heads out of their ass to serve the people - which proves the banks are in control of congress - which proves we're all totally screwed) leaves us on a perpetual month to month funding (which is voted on late at night when no one is looking or reporting the passage of such things). Congrats to STB - I think that is my longest sentence ever.

Police State -

If you wonder why I have this section it is because you must know how your Constitutional rights are being pillaged and the MSM is reporting little about it. This is real stuff and before too long the US will resemble China or Russia. No, I am not exaggerating one bit. Please read, "“The Senate-passed version of the NDAA, S. 1867, contains Section 1031, which authorizes indefinite military detention of suspected terrorists without protecting U.S. citizens’ right to trial. We are deeply concerned that this provision could undermine the Fourth, Fifth, Sixth, Seventh, and Eighth amendment rights of U.S. citizens who might be subjects of detention or prosecution by the military,” states the letter." 40 Members of Congress Protest ‘Indefinite Detention’ Bill Alex Jones' Infowars

Chart of the Day -

Financials and banks comparison chart - Looks to me like a bunch of falling wedges screaming the need for massive intervention in Jan/Feb after they hit or underthrow the wedge support. I'm not sure they will let BAC get a 2 handle, but it should come close. There may be one last opportunity to buy like hell (for a short period of time after they ease like hell), but after that is over so is everything. I'll really start pushing the panic button after the next easing.

Remember the Reason for the season!

GL and GB.

Morning Post 12/14/11, SPX

2011-12-14T07:53:00.001-05:00

So, like a bunch of whining babies not getting their candy or toys, the markets moan and complain about not getting their easing "fix". I hate to sound like a broken record, but this should be proof enough (and the 2000th iteration of this) that the only thing that keeps the markets afloat is intervention. Reality is the Fed can ease at any time they want. The issues now is what collateral damage comes with every additional dollar printed.

The EU summit came and went (yet again) without any sort of resolution. As we have been discussing there is no resolution or "fix" as they want you to believe. About the only action left is to print, print, print like they never have before. We also all know that this will only lead to increasing the already unmanageable debt load. So, when does the proverbial fiat dollar finally break the camel's back? That is the question we ask every day.

"As Reuters explains, the euro slipped versus the dollar on Wednesday after Italy paid a euro era record yield of 6.47 percent to sell five-year debt, adding to concerns that an EU summit last week had made little progress in tackling the region's debt crisis." Euro Drops Under 1.3000 Following Record High Yield On Italian 5 Year Auction | ZeroHedge

For the longest time it wave a faux pa to discuss or address potential conspiracy or fringe issues in the blogosphere for risk of alienating viewers and risking one's reputation as a reputable blogger. STB in recent months has gone a bit heavy on the police state and other conspiracy topics that I believe are very important. The world is changing faster than we can keep up with. I include these topics because they integrate with the grand picture. The impending market collapse and economic distress are directly related to the rise in police state action. The fraud and corruption ranging from Wall Street to Washington is way out of hand. This is all relevant not only to market actions, but to your freedoms and well being as well.

Just yesterday Zero Hedge, while always on the edge of conspiracy but never quite crossing the lines, posted to important pieces that may mean they are finally crossing the invisible line. I'd really appreciate it if you would read “Big Brother is Eyeing Us – For Good or Evil?”. You should also read the still developing (and should be exponentially expanding) Was The "Collapse" Of MF Global Premeditated? A Conspiracy Theory, _and what some may call an outright conspiracy theory, that by scuttling MF, Corzine effectively helped some shell company (or companies) which were controlled by a "cabal" of his closest confidants (we will let readers come up with their own theories who the former CEO of Goldman Sachs may have been close with) to make the offsetting profit that resulted from the accelerated and massive losses borne by MF's stakeholders in the vicious liquidation."

DOW Daily - As discussed in the AD last night, the pop and drop to set divergences on the daily chart is complete. This does not look healthy.

Remember the Reason for the season.

GL and GB.

Afternoon Delight 12/13/11 - There Is No Relief

2011-12-13T18:24:00.001-05:00

There is no answer. Despite the Fed's Evans constantly crowing for more easing (proving that he's either a total idiot or a market manipulation shill for the banksters), none was delivered today. I'm not sure how or who thought more easing would come today and why any had hopes of such an action. With the DOW near 12000, what's the hurry?

Either way, easing or not, we're pretty doomed. We already exist in a world of insurmountable debt. There are two way to deal with this problem. You either default or make the problem exponentially worse, kick the can, ease some more and make the problem even worse down the road.

We've already done that second solution twice, so why would a third time be the charm and magically fix everything when the first two have ....made the problem even worse? The fact that some believe that all will be well and the charade that the cronies are preaching thru the MSM is really disgusting. For those that still believe that there is a chance things can be fixed, you need to dust up on your remedial math and have your head examined.

I was going to address the liquidity, re-hypothecation and collateral issue tonight, but I ran out of time. Sorry. Also other market news needed to be covered. Will get to that this week. For now all you need to know is that the markets are not happy with the situation. They are holding at a critical point and Christmas may be spoiled if the PPT does not step in and save the day. STB still with an all bets off scenario looking thinking it falls here or right after Christmas. The next FOMC meeting is not until January 24-25.

WWIII -

"A senior Israeli cabinet minister on Monday said Iran must be forced to face an existential question over its nuclear drive: choose between getting an atomic bomb, or survival." Iran must chose between a bomb or survival: Israel

Iran army declines comment on MP's Hormuz exercise remarks - Yahoo! News

Police State -

SOPA Is “Unconstitutional”, Would “Criminalize” the Internet … Modeled On China - Washington's Blog

They thought it was a UFO - Russian Protesters Encounter Surveillance UAV Drone Alex Jones' Infowars

NTSB recommends full ban on use of cell phones while driving - CNN.com

This was nice - Video: Holiday commercial sparks warm, fuzzy feelings about — not puppies — guns « Hot Air

Obummer Bashing -

"After observing President Obama for the last three years, it has become obvious to me that the president might prefer to be a university professor rather than do the job he holds today. While he might not realize that he feels this way, the evidence is very clear to those who work with or watch him closely." Dem lawmaker blasts ‘Professor Obama’ as arrogant, alienating - The Hill's Congress Blog

Chart of the Day -

Index Comparison - I have been showing this chart pretty regularly over the past couple of weeks. The financials are not happy and if they are not, then markets usually follow.

DOW Daily - I have to thank Soup for getting me to look at the DOW chart - and WHAMO there it was - where the SPX has the 1292 top that price has not been able to retrace and it has a "sneaky" divergence I have been showing, the DOW did fully retrace 12250 and set a double top and set a nasty divergence. This should complete my drop and pop to set daily divergence scenario I called at the last top. You are welcome.

Remember the Reason for the Season!

GL and GB.

Morning Post 12/13/11, Chartapalooza day!

2011-12-13T09:25:00.002-05:00

Let's look at some LT weekly charts.

EUR/USD - Is that a massive HnS targeting 60? STB has had a $116 target (after $135 then $125 targets) for quite some time now. IF that is a HnS then my target may just be the neckline of a massive failure.

Dollar - /DX - Quite disturbing to see the reality of the dollar. Purchasing power? Interesting to have seen the dollar and SPX rise together recently, but the trend for both this year has been a muddling process at best. Will our fiat explode as the safe haven when (not if) the EUR bites the dust? If it does I give it $92 or the upper channel resistance best case. Recently I've been on that $81 resistance that is just above. Remember a cheap dollar makes our debt even less expensive and this may be max pain for the Fed if they can continue to keep price devalued.

Oil - /CL - That lower support diagonal started in 2001, so you are looking at a 10 year wedge formation. $71 support is key. None of this matters if we get WWIII and Iran cuts off the straight. Also remember that the Saudis and others like to have oil around $85 to support their entitlement states (thus the floor/range you can see back to '09).

Gold - /YG - That green channel runs back to '08. The pink diagonal acting as support here runs back to '06. If gold lets go I'd be a buyer near 1571 support. Of course it may not get there. This PM is the one that's worth more than its weight. STB has been on the call that when the markets finally crash everything crashes. Yes, even gold, but gold's crash will only be temporary and all those exiting assets will find their way into gold. Look for an extreme to be the weekly 200ma at 1227. Gold is not in a bubble.

Silver - /SI - Looks to be channeling down at this time but also being held up by the backtest of busted resistance. Several obvious points if things breakdown. Green support, the $19.70 level and then the lower LT support near $10. I think worst case in a crash you get the green support and the weekly 200ma near $24 if not that then $19.70 should hold. Buy with both hands there.

AUD/JPY - The most intervened chart (IMO from the Japanese side). Clear support here at $73 level. Does not look all that healthy.

Natgas - /NG - STB's favorite economic indicator! If ya ain't usin NG then thar ain't nuttin happnen, plain and simple. I still think it hits $2.60 if not worse. That LT 1.61 number looks pretty tasty after the coming crash as well. The recent bust of that blue support diag is not healthy.

10 Year Treasury - What can you say other than the massive rising wedge is playing out and may have completed the formation. Only one way to go soon.

Minis 60m - Channeling down into 1218 support and the subsequent bounce there as top (and warned by me yesterday) but the 60m divergences.

Minis 1m with VWAP and Vbands - Submitted for your viewing pleasure. Is it any surprise that 1236 is a sticking point for upside action? Well it was till after the bad retail news this AM price spikes to the upper channel resistance for this move. If this insanity continues, the look to green down channel resistance near 1246 and an extreme of 1257.

Remember the Reason for the season!

GL and GB.

Afternoon Delight 12/12/11 -

2011-12-12T17:52:00.001-05:00

Not sure where to start today. Friday we had yet another EU D-Day come and go without any form of reconciliation or agreement on how to solve the financial crisis. Of course the markets ramped up to the event in anticipation some sort of solution would come that would end the nightmare.

Well, we all here at STB knew plain as day that nothing would happen and this date would come and go without any "solution" for one simple reason - there is no solution. All the money in the world (currently) would not solve anything. All the money they can print will not solve anything. Piling more debt on unmanageable debt is no answer. They are screwed and it is only a matter of time before something breaks and they complete system fails. They announced March as the time for the next meeting, If, somehow, they can hold out till then, February will be the next ramp month in anticipation of the next "solution". I'm not sure they will make it to that point.

I'm not gonna rehash a bunch of treaty busting rhetoric that produces nothing. I'm tired of the rest of it for now. Nothing "flowed" today, so I don't "flow" now. Not gonna waste your time.

For a nice dose of reality I suggest you read 20 Signs That The Culture Of Government Dependence Has Gotten Completely And Totally Out Of Control. This is some really freaky scary stuff. Good for the spendocrats to know that they have secured their voter base. Bad for the republicons to see this and know their tax base has been destroyed. My favorite: #6 When you total it all up, American households are now receiving more money from the U.S. government than they are paying to the government in taxes.

I disagree with this post only because I think it is a shill piece and that unemployment is really closer to 18%, but you can read it anyway. It has some good stuff in it. Wonkbook: The real unemployment rate is 11 percent - The Washington Post

WWIII -

As posted here this morning - ""Soon we will hold a military manoeuvre on how to close the Strait of Hormuz. If the world wants to make the region insecure, we will make the world insecure."" Iran Military Practicing Straits Of Hormuz Closure | ZeroHedge

OK, so we can't invade or bomb Iran because Russia and China would get pissed off. There is no reason that should stop our "humanitarian" mission of deposing non-globalist friendly dictators in the middle east - Up next? Assad. Are US Troops Deploying on the Jordan-Syrian Border?

Obummer Bashing -

You know, some things just boggle the mind. Forget that like the southern half of Arizona is under Mexican Cartel control, or that there are like 50 gazillion illegals here receiving free everything further expanding the spendocrat voter base. Nah, we don't have nay border issues. "Blaming budget cuts, the Obama administration early next year will cut the number of National Guard troops patrolling the U.S.-Mexico border by at least half, according to a congressman who was briefed on the plan." Obama to slash National Guard force on U.S.-Mexico border - Washington Times

Police State -

Fascinating must read post - Mind blowing stuff - Everything Happening Now Was Planned Before 9/11 and if that is not enticing enough maybe you would like to read Joe Biden Drafted the Core of the Patriot Act in 1995 ... Before the Oklahoma City Bombing. Look, this is all FACT not fiction. You either chose to deal with reality or crawl back under your cozy blanket and pretend none of this is happening. This is no longer fringe conspiracy crap - IT IS REAL. I suggest you at least read about this stuff before you live under Marshall law. At least you will have some sort of clue as to what's happening when it happens (not if).

So, are the days of STB numbered? Are the days of free speech ticking down? We all know (at least those regulars here) that the internet is the only source of reliable, independent, non MSM controlled media where truth is distributed real time. (If the sheeple would only read instead of playing Angry Birds for hours on end think of what we could accomplish?)

Google's Eric Schmidt, "He compared the proposal to the Web censorship practiced by repressive foreign governments like China and doubled down on that comparison when speaking with reporters after his remarks at the Economic Club of Washington." Google chairman says online piracy bill would 'criminalize' the Internet - The Hill's Hillicon Valley. Apparently linking like I just did will become an illegal act.

"It has now become clear that, as we have written and warned about for the past year, the drones that were supposedly commissioned strictly as tools for border control will now patrol inland for suspected criminals on American soil, heralding a new level of police state oppression." Drones Officially Take Flight For Domestic Law Enforcement Alex Jones' Infowars

This is a wild one - you have to wonder or take this to the next level (or three) if you are a regular reader. Can you say "trial run" to set a feeler for what may happen? "State police say the bogus text urging people to “take shelter before 1:24 p.m.” was sent out at 12:26 p.m. Monday to residents in Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris and Ocean counties." Verizon Apologizes For Bogus Emergency Text Message Sent To NJ Residents « CBS New York

Chart of the Day -

SPX 60m - 38% retracement just above major support stopped the fall today for some bizarre reason. Funny how the markets can go up exponentially on rumor and hype that the EU summits would generate a solution, and when they fail the reciprocal does not occur. DOW battling 12,000 is a big deal.

Remember the Reason for the season.

GL and GB.