Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Morning Post 07/31/12 SPX /ES

Quick post as I have a friend running for reelection in the state house. and I have to do some things for him this morning.

I've been watching the poll results to the right closely. We are seeing a clear divide in the board's thoughts on when this fiasco finally ends. Of course I am one of the few in the 9-12 month range that sits in the middle, go figure. August and September will be huge months for the markets and then we roll into the election, Christmas and the tax sunset with a new congress (and hopefully president). Shall we throw Greece, Spain and Italy's issues into that pot? Not a good recipe for the months ahead.

Let's look at a few charts. Yes, I stick to my contention that the charts will deliver the turn. Numbers never lie (except for those generated by government agencies and those generated by institutions supported via government funding). Intervention is alive and well. We all know the clock is ticking and that the central planner's backs are to the wall right now. I still like the 1220 first target then 1170.

Monday, July 30, 2012

Morning Charts 07/30/12 SPX /ES

Extending and pretending is painful for those on the side of reality and a never ending party for those hooked on the hopium. Sometimes it really sucks being the responsible one at the party. Staying sober and watching everyone else run around making a fool of themselves isn't all that much fun. That's the bears case right now as they sit and watch the bulls, high as hell Mexican party hats and all, running naked thru the streets like there is no tomorrow. We all know how this is going to end right?

So we wait on yet another summit to produce nothing but empty promises and more bailout rhetoric which generates nothing more than a waiting period to the next summit. The cartel is running out of options. Insolvent banks and governments are left without any collateral other than raw taxing power (governments and banks are now one unit if you had not noticed). So, they throw the bill for the hopium fused party right on your back and mine. Were we invited? Hell no, but we get to foot the bill.

As for the markets, it is becoming increasingly stupid to even discuss price movement. I mean, what's the point? We all know that price reflects nothing more than the promise of more easing or bailouts. We all know that without intervention that the markets would be valued 50% or less than where they are now. What recovery? It is all an illusion that all is well and your wealth is safe.

Friday, July 27, 2012

Open Weekend Post 07/28-29/12

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

EOM tops? I mentioned this in the commentary on Friday. Note the EOM tops on this daily chart and tell me if you can spot a trend. So they bid it up to sell into the new money flows at the beginning of the month, how king of the manipulators.

Morning Charts 07/27/12 SPX E-mini

They (team manipulation and the PPT) closed the open gap on the minis and then last night took price back above the previously busted rising blue wedge support taking out the 1359 support/resistance point along the way. Impressive? Not really when you control all trade in a volume-less overnight vacuum. Realistic? Ha! Now  the only thing that realistic refers to these days is the deteriorating situation of the 99% and the coming greatest depression. Nothing about this market is real.

Enough of the bitching, you all have heard it all and know the story. Lets look at the charts real quick and see what we can derive. Remember all they are doing right now by raising price is buying time and room before the next move south.

Minis Daily - Busy chart, but it is the best I got. Rising blue wedge into pink resistance. The wedge busted and by all rights should have failed miserably this week, but you know how that story goes. So here price is trying to rally again. Right now it looks like 1368 should be the strongest resistance and then the triple top at 1375 with a triple negative divergence (on the daily no less) should be (should) it.

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Morning Charts 07/26/12 $SPX $ES

Well, we discuss well timed baseless rumor driven ramps all the time here at STB and we got one last night. Read ECB's Draghi Repeats The Party Line, Forces Another Brief EUR Squeeze, Sends Futures Soaring | ZeroHedgeIt never ceases to amaze me what they can pull out of their ass hat at the most critical times. Here we are on the cliff with everything busted under price but the 50 dma support and wham. Of course you and I know that everything said was a lie and is total BS, but the markets react with glee as if all will be well and the recovery is back on. Like Pavlov's dog, the markets begin to salivate with the mention of more easing or intervention. 

SPX Daily - Pretty simple, consolidation. I've been discussing consolidation for a few months now. About the only thing I have missed was the upside ceiling which I thought would be near 1341, but I did have a second target of 1375 (my max) which has held nicely so far. The one thing on this chart you need to note is the 50dma that is driving down like a kamikaze pilot towards the 200dma setting up the death cross (yes, the Fed sees this coming as well). As I mentioned yesterday there is a wad of support on cash from 1316 to 1332 right now. If that should go, you can run for the hills.

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Morning Charts 07/25/12 $SPX $ES

So AAPL has a massive miss and we're not falling off the cliff. I guess when every hedge fund is up to their neck in one stock that's what happens. No one bailed. Should they have? Of course not, with the 'promise' of another Bernanke Put alive and well (at least for one last round), why should they? Hilsenrath Once Again With The 3:55 PM Sticksave | ZeroHedge We remain in a bad news is good news world with every bad data point released the markets only react with glee as the promise of another trillion hits of market levitating hopium is doled out. 

Yes, another dose of SSDD. Yes, the markets are 50% overvalued. Yes, if things were real with the data points of the past several months and AAPL's miss as the cherry on top we should be facing a lock limit down open today. IT is what it is folks. You invest in a market that is 100% manipulated and controlled. We have evolved from what was once possibly the fairest market on the planet to one that rivals if not surpasses that of China, the most corrupt on the planet. 

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Morning Charts 07/24/12 $SPX $ES

Pretty simple again. We sit on a cliff awaiting a savior.

Minis 15m - If you missed my Let's Look at the E-minis post yesterday, please look at it for a complete step by step guide to price action and where we are today.  Minis last night closed at critical support and today remain teetering on the brink of a 40 to 45 point slide to 1300 if Team Manipulation and the PPT don't come to the rescue. Blue rising wedge support has failed. 1341 is the market Mendoza line. Yellow (new) wedge or lower diagonal support is all that is left. Those three are dominating price here as you can see on the chart below.

Monday, July 23, 2012

Let's Look At The E-minis /ES - A Technical Road Map

OK, so you will understand what I am seeing and why I call the numbers I have called with great success. This is a commentary on price movement only - nothing else.

Minis weekly - Ugly and confusing, but this chart is what it is and all the lines here are important. This chart is to go back in time and see where some of the numbers in play today originated. It is also to see what diagonals and formations lie in our future.

Note the beginning of the 1374 resistance we just experienced was the April 2011 top. Just below that is the 1341 level where in 2011 price struggled to rise. Looking down you find 1301 and 1265 levels that both played prominent roles recently. Bigger picture note the open gaps (gray) and support diagonals running up off of the 2008 lows (yellow, green, beige). The two important upper resistance diagonals are blue and "Big Red" off the 2007 highs.

Minis daily - Here we get into the heart of the move off the recent 1420 top. The futures form up so much better than cash. We have a clear green falling wedge off the 1420 top (EWT wave 1) to gap, long term support at 1263 and "Big Red" (the first resistance off the 2007 top that was broken). From there a blue rising wedge has formed. This blue wedge drove up to the pink resistance diagonal formed off the 1420 top and the 1375 resistance then reversed. Price is currently fighting this blue wedge support (EWT wave 2) and 1341 support.

Minis 4hr - Drilling down to the blue wedge. Here you can see the recent interaction with all the numbers and diagonals mentioned above. Bottom to top - Note "Big Red" and 1301 support. Blue wedge support and yellow (newest or lower developed wedge support being tested now). 1341, 1368. 1374 support resistance points. Pink resistance diagonal off the 1420 top. The point last week that cued me (and the STB board) to go ballistic on calling some sort of near term top was the occurrence of the double top shown here at 1375 in conjunction with price  meeting upper pink resistance.

Minis 30m - Drilled down to the final rising green wedge within the larger rising blue wedge over the past couple of weeks. Yo see the upper reversal off the pink resistance and 1375 level. Price has driven thru green wedge support. Price for the second time is challenging blue wedge support and testing lower yellow support. Price has violated 1341 support. Referring to the last chart above, note the massive hole between this lower yellow support diagonal and "Big Red", 1301 and the round level of 1300.

Minis 5m - Amazing how that gnarly fugly weekly chart above becomes crystal clear as we drill in. 

Right now it appears that the blue wedge has failed, but till this current yellow support goes, you can't be sure. Today's crack of 1341 is a big deal. The form of the recent fall looks very orderly. The one gap is a nice touch, but it appears that price is being walked down and there is no "fear" at work here just yet. Every day they come closer to failure. Friday I noted price closed at a critical level. It obviously failed and here we are challenging the next critical level (yellow support diagonal and 1333) after taking out 1341 support. If this goes is should be a quick trip to 1300 and then possible 1264.

Since before the 1420 top I've been looking to the 1220 (first target) and mainly 1170 (second target) for this fall. Other targets for this fall measure to the 1112 area. Monthly 200ma near 1150 is key support. The weekly 200ma is near 1140. Combine those two ma's and you get a pretty good support point for the next major fall. The setup is pretty nasty here is some scenarios, where in others (CPC or Bullish Percent) are not as dire or ready to turn.

Note that 1200 is critical not only as a psychological round level but it is the point where the last diagonal support off the 2008 lows. That is critical support.

I have not backed off my 1170 target and a plummet to induce enough fear or outrage to allow for more easing from the Fed. As for the "top" call - I'm 85% "the" top was set at 1420 but with the manipulation that exists, I simply can not call it at this time. Calling a top is not as easy as it was in '10 and '11. The game has changed. It is more rigged now than ever.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 07/23/12 $SPX $ES

You need to know no more than this today -

Spanish 10 Year Trades On The Ugly Side Of 7.50% 

Finally, summits and rumors of solutions may not be enough anymore. With the US 10yr tumbling and projecting 1% or less yields the gig may be up for team manipulation. Later this summer looms many events that will be harder to overcome than those of the past. The August 20 Greek due date and the US running out of cash again are just a couple of highlights of what's to come. It appears that the weight of the debt and the pressures of the lies and fraud of the "recovery" are finally driving the crisis over the brink.

Minis 4hr - The end of last week brought a lot of discussion about tops and the close Friday was ominous at best. I posted another ominous chartapalooza last week. We wake up to a small gap down last night and price sitting on the critical 1341 level having taken out wedge support after diagonal resistance off the 2007 and '11 tops held.

Friday, July 20, 2012

Open Weekend Post 07/21-22/12

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

Well, I think most know that this market has zero support and when it finally goes it will literally implode. The question is what will it take to crack the QE code? Everything is totally dismal, and yet the markets continue to levitate. Will it take a catalyst of some sort to break the HFT/algo/QE manipulation curse here or can it just fail? Which bank is going to sell first?

Here is the minis chart. You should =be able to make sense of the movements since the April highs. Pretty basic, falling green wedge to blue rising wedge. As I covered Thursday and Friday mornings, the double top here running into pink resistance off the top at 1374 is a pretty gnarly set up for shortie. More charts are in my chartbook. I'll do some updating this weekend.

Thanks for another great week on the blog. STB visited the 200 comment level for the first time in a few months which was nice. You all are killing it with the great links and commentary.

Have a great weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning charts 07/20/12 $SPX $ES

So earnings season rolls along adding to the market's paralyses caused by the deteriorating everything on one side and the promise of never ending QE on the other. Yes, frustratingly, the bad news is really good news trade lives on. It is more apparent than ever that the Bernanke Put is all that supports this market. So we (the realist bears) wait. We wait for a crack.

The charts are trying to tell us that a crack is trying to show and that the underlying support is crumbling if non existent. Patience still rules the day as the markets do the improbable day after day. The control mechanism appears to be more content than ever (and blatant) to maintain price levels no matter the circumstances. It is possible that this meant the true end is near and my "event" may be all that's left to bring this market down.

Thursday, July 19, 2012

Morning Post 07/19/12 $SPX $ES

Let's not spend a lot of time today focusing on the unadulterated manipulation of the financial markets, the criminality that encompasses that same system and governments around the globe or the war monger's increasing beat of their drum.

The charts are starting to point to another major move again.

Copper - This head and shoulders (bearish formation) is unmistakable

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Morning Charts 07/18/12 #SPX $ES

It's become like the movie Groundhog Day except the global distortion continues to worsen with each trip down the rabbit hole. The deeper we go down the hole the more troubles that arise, the more the unregulated, fraudulent and totally corrupt system exposes its self. They system is finally starting to turn on its self as the underpinnings of various rigged markets become undone. With each year the debt grows and the economy worsens. Things are not getting better no matter what you have been told. From green shoots till now, everything you have ever heard about a recovery from anyone has been a lie.

This Is What Happened This Time Last Year After Ben Bernanke Spoke To Congress from Zero Hedge has this excellent observation, "A week after Bernanke spoke last year we saw the highs for H2 2012 (1345) before moving aggressively lower into the low 1100s through August- October as Europe’s problems intensified and the US debt ceiling problems came to a head. One year on and the biggest H2 risks are probably similar. US data is weakening, Europe’s problems could easily come to a head again and the fiscal cliff could become a major issue, albeit slightly later in the year. We also now have a China slowdown to contend with. So the parallels are there."

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Morning charts 07/17/12 $SPX $ES

So, the system truly is corrupt (as STB has been claiming for years). Money laundering and backdoor deals do exist (and soon to be proven unicorns and sprites exist as well). It was only a matter of time before the unregulated mess we call a financial system began to expose its gnarly underside. Most recently Senate Throws The Book At HSBC Accusing It Of Massive "Money Laundering And Terrorist Financing", No Comment On NAR Money Laundering Yet from Zero Hedge highlights the nastiness that it takes to keep the current system alive and running like the well oiled bribed or paid off machine it is. 

The JPM fiasco is just beginning as to their rigging of the CDS markets (one among many yet to be uncovered not to mention silver) with the criminal (very unusual but much welcomed word to associate with a bank isn't it?) inquiry. I can pretty much assure you that before this mess is all over it will be discovered that everything was rigged. Well at least we can rest assured now knowing the treasury was not using taxpayer money for sex (unlike the SEC's online ventures). 

The big news today will be the Bernank's testimony at 10:00, where you can be assured QE will highlight the conversation along with the decades of LIEBOR manipulation. I've been telling you for years the markets were rigged. It is fun to get the last laugh after years of "that can't be" and the "Shanky you're nuts" emails and conversations. OF course the naysayers are all off in their holes somewhere cocooning and living in their permanent state of denial. 

Where will be the next points of reference that STB will be correct? The coming socialist state where the police crackdown will be unprecedented in our history and the confiscation of every retirement asset in the country would be the two best places to start. What a wonderful world we live in. 

As for the markets, the consolidation continues along the bottom of the blue rising wedge. The potential STB point where white s/r at 1341intersects with blue wedge support is just below. I thought we'd consolidate below 1341 into today, but instead we're doing it just above the support. The chart below and on cash both show the 60m ready to roll over with some telling divergences. 

Maybe the Bernank will disappoint today? I know I will remain sidelined until the Fed tells me what to do. If 1341 cracks, there is real danger of price finding "Big Red" at 1300 if not worse. Upside potential should be limited and any movement up should be a struggle. As usual earnings season adds to some of my predictive paralysis, noting that this is a tough time to try and get too far ahead of anything as it takes so little to start a mini bull run. I'll see if I can get a post up on earnings with some charts.

I would like to suggest that you read the #Barack ObamaDidItForThem feed on twitter. It was one of the best reads of the year so far IMO. One laugh after another at the expense of or fine potus. 

GL and GB!

Monday, July 16, 2012

Morning Charts 07/16/12 $SPX $ES

I'm not sure about you folks but the way I see it, revenue misses are not good. IMHO if there is one reoccurring theme over the past 4 years about earnings season it is "earnings beat but revenue miss". So they can use all the accounting gimmicks (or whatever else they have in your bag of tricks) to massage the earnings all they want, but that revenue number is just a bit harder to manipulate. C is just another shining example.

In another murky dark part of the data feed we discover that retail sales are not so hot. What makes this so murky and dark is that the stark cold reality is that the consumer is dead, tapped out and up to their gills in debt. This is a massive problem. As discussed here often in the past, it is our (the USA) job to consume and the rest of the world's to manufacture. We are the great consumer. So, what happens if we can no longer consume because we're totally tapped out? Now, go figure that this horrific situation is a rallying cry for the markets because it deems more easing from the Fed (which will never see the light of day on main street). That's really screwed up.

Friday, July 13, 2012

Open Weekend Post 07/14-15/12

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

A couple of charts this weekend that pretty much define everything right now, the holding (barely, thanks PPT) of wedge support.

SPX - the wedge is not as clear on SPX but the support is nearly identical.

Morning Charts 07/13/12 $SPX $ES

Friday the 13th, WOOOHOOO! What a perfect day for the crazies on this blog to get all hyped up.

I guess JPM can break all the mirrors they want or walk under as many ladders as they care to. Who else can do what they have done and still manage to pull off (what appears will be) a green opening? I guess the unwritten rule would be if you bet against them, you or your company will be sleeping with the fishes Luca Brasi style. Capiche?

I guess the roughly $2 billion that JPM "inherited" from MFG and PFG must have improved the bottom line enough to make the earnings goblins go away. What a wonderful world we live in today.

Gonna make it simple again today, no need in over analyzing anything just yet. 

Minis 60m - Wednesday I said that I thought that blue wedge support would hold and that we'd most likely consolidate between 1341 and wedge support. Somewhat surprising to me, blue support got a healthy crack yesterday, but the permariggers managed to pull off yet another stick save. I then mentioned two possible STB Points as backtest areas. One at the upper yellow channel and blue support intersection. The other is where blue support intersects 1341. If this thing fails this afternoon or Monday at the backtest of 1341 it could be all she wrote. Then again if they can get price back above 1341 that may be able to levitate it for a while, but serious upside (esp above 1375) should be out of the question, 

Thursday, July 12, 2012

Morning Charts 07/12/12 $SPX $ES

I asked the board if anyone had a queasy feeling about things yesterday afternoon after the 10yr auction. (Tomorrow is Friday the 13th) Response was muted. I suspect it was so because of the confusion the results the sale generated. I noted since the weekend that I had been a bit confused as to what the charts were saying vs. what I was seeing/feeling. It is rare I have a hick up in my prognosticative abilities and usually when that happens the balance of the investing universe is not right.

Let's review TD's write up about the 10yr auction yesterday (read this twice please to let it sink in), "Only one word to explain the just completed 10 year reopening auction. WTF!!! While the 10 year When Issued was trading at 1.516% at 1pm, when the release hit of the final High Yield on the bond,jaws dropped, as it came at a shocking 1.459%, nearly 6 bps inside of the WI, a record, a yield which also was a record, a Bid To Cover of 3.61 which was the second highest ever, second only to the 3.72 in April 2010, but it was the internals that were the most jarring of all. Unlike all recent auctions in the past 4 years, the Primary Dealer take down was only 14% a record low in recent years, and a hit rate of 6.8%, another record low. The offset: Directs, which took down a whopping 45.4%, another record, after tendering a record $16.9 billion in bids. All in all there was no definitive reason to explain why this auction was so very, very off the charts, and so mispriced by the secondary market, suffice to say WTF, and that this is what happens when there continues to be just one game in town: frontrun the Fed!"

The 10 year auction is bringing flashbacks of the tops in 2010 and 2011 when I made two of the best top calls in my brief history. Many things are different this time. QE is not ending, Twist has been extended and the Fed's tool box remains "open". They are no longer experimenting with pulling liquidity from the markets. They now face the cold hard reality (three years into the Keynesian nightmare) that their uber debt expansion experiment is a great failure and are now willing to throw anything at the wall to see what sticks (after it has hit the proverbial fan).

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Morning Charts 07/11/12 $SPX $ES

It is a long hard journey for the believers in reality and those that can see thru the malaise of bullshit sewn by our government to mislead and deceive the sheeple. I'm not sure which side of the fence is better at times. The sheeple live with blinders on moving along not affected by anything, living stress free (if they have a job) and enjoying the moment cocooning their lives away. The wide awake (most here) go to sleep and wake up in the multifaceted nightmare that has a death grip on every aspect of your life that represents freedom and liberty.

It would be nice to be able to go to bed and not have to worry about the rising totalitarian fascist state that this country is becoming. Not to have to worry about the financial collapse. Not to have to worry about the global war that (as history has proven) will result from this instability. Not to have to worry about the poisoning of our food and Monsanto's GMOs. Not to have to worry about the elitist crony capitalists turning us all into debt slaves to eternally support their system of corruption and greed. Not to have to worry about Little Shanky 1 and 2's future and what sort of horrific world they will have to live in (especially if Obummer is reelected).

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Hurdles, It Is All About Low Hurdles (And Short Squeezes)

Most long time readers know that I basically crawl into a shell at earnings season till AAPL reports. I'm a trend dude, and I like the major indexes (obviously SPX and the E-mini) avoiding the individual equity action. It is not that I can't trade stocks (I sometimes do), it is that I prefer to focus or specialize on the broader markets.

Earnings season used to be a joyful time. Markets used to follow fairly predictable cycles, you know, the ones you learned in your economics textbooks years ago. Now post manipulation or post 2008 FASB/regulation elimination things have changed. Earnings are now a not so carefully correlated dance between the Fed, banks and government's wishes that represent the land of unicorns and fairy tales.

Pre-QE if a company cut guidance it was a big deal and the market reacted appropriately breaking out the big black paddle and taking it to the backside of price for said company. A good example of this is with Cummins today. In a non-QE environment there is no levity or trampoline effect that lifts all ships sinking or not.

Morning Charts 07/10/12 $SPX $ES

MFG, PFG what's the difference? Well, we'll see just how well they are connected up the ladder. We all know Don Corzine was made of teflon. Will the same non stick coating apply to the PFG executives? If you have no idea what I'm talking about, there was another client fund issue yesterday, this time it was only $220 million that went missing (just a billion short of the last incident - Oh, and JPM is in the background once again). PFG Is Now MFG(lobal) Part 2 As $220 Million In Segregated Client Money Has Just Vaporized

This morning I could not put it any better than this post from Zero Hedge, “SSDD. Europe has a late night conference, regurgitates stuff, gives no details, makes lots of promises, peripheral bonds tighten only to blow out, etc, etc, etc. Seen it all before. Unlike a week ago, Spanish bonds, when Spanish bonds ripped by 1%, this time we can barely muster a 25 bps move tighter, with the 10 year "down" to  6.82%. It was 6.25% a week ago. Expect the blow out as has been empirically proven time and again. Hint: there is no magic money tree nor is there a magic collateral tree.” Overnight Action: European Knee Jerk Fade

Monday, July 9, 2012

Is Silver About To Explode or Implode?

After reading South American Silver Plummets As Bolivia Announces It Will Nationalize One Of World's Largest Silver Deposits from Zero Hedge I decided I better follow up on my April 24th Silver post where I recommended you stay away from silver (then at $31) till upper green resistance was busted and had a backtest.

Let's get to it since it almost nut cuttin time -

/SI Monthly - These charts change very slowly, but offer a wealth of information on direction and long term support, resistance and trends. Here you can clearly see long term resistance (pink) and long term support (yellow) with some major s/r points sprinkled in. You can also see the green channel down from the $49 top that has dominated price since the reversal.

Morning Charts 07/09/12 $SPX $ES

Let's make this simple -

Minis 5m - 1341 is all you need to know. On the ramp up I was willing to give 1341 as my first target and top of the consolidation range and 1374 as my second target and all I was willing to give this run. 1341 is now key support.

Friday, July 6, 2012

Open Weekend Post 07/07-08/12

You know the rules, share the love and the knowledge.

Not much to say other than the markets appear on the verge of a good sized move south, and my vacation is coming to an end. I'm looking forward to getting back to the office and charting some things up for you good folk. I'm also looking forward to posting some really heavy AD's. Now that the turn is apparently here things may not be so dull and there are actually some triggers and signals to chart, not just ramp BS. Note that BTFD/STFR chart I posted Friday.

Enjoy the weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 07/06/12 $SPX $ES

Well, believe what you want from the NFP numbers. As most know now I firmly believe that any number coming from our fascist totalitarian government can be trusted as much as the information flow from China. The miss in the NFP number can be interpreted with only one item in mind, QE.

This along with the dreadful economic numbers posted over the past few months will allow the Fed some more wiggle room as we head towards that moment when the Fed will ease again one day, cause there is no other option to keep the banks alive. Forget the economy. Easing has nothing to do with the economy. It is all about keeping the banks alive and the markets elevated.

I am not sure if they will ease before the election or not, but I think the odds are good they will have to. There are roughly 5 months to the election. The Government is slated to run out of money again this summer. The EU is in shambles. Current market levels do not necessarily show the stress necessary. I'm still looking to the 1170 area on the minis (let's say 1220 or below) before the Fed starts to add ink to the presses.

Thursday, July 5, 2012

Morning Sharts 07/5/12 $SPX $ES

Nope, that was intentional. Charts may be replaced by Sharts. If you do not know what a shart is, ask below and I'll give some assistance. Why sharts instead of charts? Because that's what charting  has been reduced to. The charts reflect the market levels which really resemble a really messy fart. Sorry, I had to go there. I can also relate this terminology to our presidency and many other facets of our governance as well.

Quick note, an actual bright spot on US sentiment and that the sheeple had had enough of potus. At the parade yesterday in the small very liberal town in the Midwest I am in, one section of the marching freak show had a BO banner and a big sign that said vote democrat. They were booed wildly all the way up the street. I smiled. It was hilarious and greatly satisfying to see potus to get railed publicly on turf that he should dominate. 

Wednesday, July 4, 2012

Happy July 4th!

Well, in spirit anyway, I wish you a happy 4th. Sadly this is not a time to be celebrating as the liberties and freedoms that our forefathers fought and died for are falling in vein. This holiday always seems to bring the best out of me - if you have never read any of my 4th rants, please follow the links. I think you will enjoy them.

Here is my 4th rant from 2011

Here is my 4th rant from 2010

Here is my 4th post from 2009 - a much more innocent time on the blog.

As for this year, I'm sadly too busy on vacation to get a post up. I'm not sure what I would have to say that would be any different than in the past two years, so go read those spirited posts.

Have a great 4th everyone and thank you very much for your continued support and contribution to the blog.

Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Morning Charts 07/03/12 $SPX $ES

Let me put it this way this morning, stocks are incredibly overvalued and gold and other PM's are incredibly undervalued all the while the bond market (while they attempt to contain it) is screaming the bloody truth.

This rigged POS system is crumbling and everyone (except the most ignorant) knows it. What is so sad is no one can do a darn thing to stop the corruption and even if they did the punishment, well let's just say there would be none (Corzine). The cartel /mafia run and control everything and there is not a darn thing we can do to stop them.

So we head into the holiday with the markets posting their lowest volume in decades, with the HFT bots controlling the fantasy, Lie-borgate possibly becoming my next "event" candidate (add the MS ratings fixing to that list), Germany trying its damnedest to foil the EU and save its own ass, our debt is unsustainable, our economy is collapsing and we have one known failure and another insider favorite running for president. 

Enjoy this 4th, cause it has a good chance at being the last one you will want to celebrate. I have a feeling the overriding theme next year will be about revolution, not the one in the 1700's but the one we need today to take our country back from the robber barons. 

I don't thing the market does anything significant today, but Thursday and Friday could be very interesting. Volume will remain low to nonexistent. It is the quirt two day period that has me a bit suspicious later this week. 

SPX Daily - Resistance is strong here and the last ramp was total bullshit. As usual, the markets run up hard on rumors all will be well and then when the fix is not on they do not give back the gains but hold the unsustainable levels. It is total BS. The NYMO says top here at this resistance level, but other indicators have a bit more room to run. The double top here at 1362 could be a nasty spot, but the carts are not screaming sell at me just yet (close, but not yet). 

I'll have some sort of post up for the 4th. Enjoy it while you can. 

GL and GB!

Monday, July 2, 2012

Morning Charts 07/02/12 $SPX $ES

You know what pisses me off? Like every morning when I get up? The fact that not only are the freedoms I have enjoyed for my whole life being taken away, but the quality of life and my children's future is being destroyed by the minute. I've thought about his a lot over the weekend. I've kind of sorted out the myriad of things that piss me off and you will get the pleasure of reading about each one here at STB, not cause I like bitching but because you need to know what's effecting your life as well.

I'm tired of regurgitating this crappy ass world we live in everyday here at STB. For a while I cocooned because the SSDD just got old as hell. I mean the economy is failing, a gazillion people are in dire need (in the richest country on the planet - to those international followers of STB you need to insert whatever BS your governemnt is doing to you here - this theft and need thing is new to us spoiled ass Americans), the MSM lies about everything, the banks are stealing everything, our court system has failed us (Roberts), what is not owned and controlled by special interest groups will be soon, everything is a lie and we're living in a time that our forefathers would never have fought and died for.

I'm on vacation this week and have enjoyed the heck out of it so far externally, but with each ride on the bike or whatever event the kids and I are doing (we're rock climbing today), I'm just churning on the inside knowing that in the future my children will most likely be microchipped, vaccinated, forced to eat what is "right for them", they will have some sore of government issued job, they will not be able to hop on a plane or get in a car and travel to enjoy this wonderful planet, and on and on and on.

What does all of this have to do with the market? Well there are about 1,000 references. These will be explored in excruciating detail in the AD posts to come. Bottom line and the root of all the evil is the corruption and control of the markets (and governments) by the Central Bank elite POS assholes that are destroying and stealing every ounce of wealth ever crated in this country to try and save their ass from destruction. It is the bullshit monetary system created by the Fed where we trade every hard earned asset we own for their fiat BS currency.

That brings us to this morning's topic (and regurgitated here over and over and over again) bailout nation. All that matters, the only thing that matters, is who prints what and when to save the system as we currently know it this week. Printing is bad for a trillion reasons. Printing creates debt and devalues currencies. When debts get so large they become unsustainable (like ours is now) and you keep on printing (or manipulating currency values) to avoid certain financial implosion, you only make the problem worse.

Well, all the EU or our Fed or whichever GS implant is discussing right now is which insolvent entity will print to bail out the other insolvent entities so the farce can be kept alive. That is it. The markets (100% manipulated and controlled as to keep the illusion alive that your savings are safe and sound) react to stimulus, extend and pretend, kick the can, whatever you want to call it and nothing else. IMHO the SPX has every right to be at about 400 right now but here we are almost 1,000 points higher all because of one big lie.

So we play the follow the Fed game and wait and react to what they want the market to do. I've been discussing this for years here on the blog and have tried almost every morning this year (since I was in this exact chair last New Years). Whatever you have learned over the years, whatever was right in your trading world, whatever you relied on is all dead now. The only thing that matters is what the banks decide.

Of course I will go into all of the above in much more detail in the future, but for now, all you can do is what I have consistently recommended - be a gangsta trada. Hit and run, long or short, scalp or very short swings with whatever momo the market has. Play the rumors and get out. You have to play the market, NOT WHAT YOU KNOW IS RIGHT. You have to enter their false reality like falling thru a wormhole into another dimension when you sit down to trade every day.

Nothing is real here and you must realize that. What will be real is when the system fails and this crash makes 2008 look like a minor dip. More on that later. I do believe in TA. I think it is the last real thing (numbers never lie). But to trade TA these days you have to combine that with the Fed and the ECB's (or whomever is in control at the time) moves. The times telegraph themselves, just wait for meeting non/results and place your bets accordingly. My charting has fallen off a bit, but my market calls are as clear as ever. This is not hard folks, follow the charts, but always defer to the rumor or bailout du jour.

They are losing their grip and we're nearing the end game.

Destroy the dollar as hope for the euro once again grows. I have no clue what that BS was Friday, but I'm glad I was not around (well, after I wrote that lovely post) to witness it. Is anything better today? Really? Will things get better? I did not think so. We just have to deal with their BS and this is why I warn about getting too lopsided in a trade and to remain nimble.

SPX Daily - The last major resistance before we enter the land of lollipops and unicorns (which we do not stay in too long). I'm watching that wedge. The double diverging top on the NYMO is not a good sign for the bulls. A quick prance to a double top at 1420 (not saying it will - 1374 is as high as I have been willing to go) would make for one nasty set up if they should take it there.

Not the best pic, but the minis are overthrowing the multi year wedge, meaning this is near the eng and the target is a lower low.

Minis 4hr - a little too excited and they may have gotten ahead of themselves as the wedge and resistance busted here.

You know my theory, they like to have the markets all up and giddy before holiday weekends to make s all feel safe and sound and to give us less to bitch about while enjoying the holidays. Think of it as a gift from the Fed.

The wedge on the minis and 1374 resistance -

And absolute wads of resistance running from 1368 to 1400 -

Enjoy your holiday week. I'll have posts up every day. I may bitch a little in the afternoons or on the 4th to blow off some steam and to thry and wake up the sheeple and turn them from the slaughterhouse doors. If you don;t mind sharing the posts here you like and find worthy with people that need to be awakened that would be awesome.

GL and GB!