Monday, April 30, 2012

Morning Market Summary and Charts 04/30/12 #SPX $ES

I hate stupid things. I hate them with a passion. Now, we all do some really dumb stuff. No one is immune to the brain fart. What I'm talking about is the moronic skanky horror flick dumb. You know, where the super hot blond in the daisy dukes and halter top is about to enter the room where the chain saw wielding ax murder is waiting. You know, the room that she should never go in but for any other reason that it exists. And the result? Duh!

Why am I bringing this up? Simple, this is what the Fed and your government (well, governments and CB's all over the globe) are doing right now. By printing to cover up the true problems and not addressing the real underlying issues they are walking straight into that room just like that blond (except they don't look near as good, they  resemble the pig with the lipstick).

We are at a point where our debt has risen from 12 trillion to 16 trillion in the past three or so years under this spend first and never solve anything administration, and we're talking about adding another trillion here this summer (and the next and the next...). I can't stand watching this movie cause the ending is so predictable. You wonder how the smartest economists on the planet with real time data covering every penny spent on the planet can get this all so wrong? The answer to that is a rant for another day, but most readers here know the answers.

Friday, April 27, 2012

Open Weekend Post 04/28-29/12

You know the drill - share the love and the knowledge.

I don't have anything to say. I'm a bit (more than a bit actually) frustrated with everything right now. So frustrated I don't even feel like ranting (that will change soon).

Have at it. I'll update charts and post anything I feel is relevant.

Watch this - Agenda 21 is the UN's plan to control the world. This is REAL and DOCUMENTED. So, watch or listen to this while you surf this weekend. This is very important for you to understand how the US and global landscape is being formed.

Inc, behave this weekend please.

Have a great weekend!

GL and GB!

Morning Markets Commentary and Charts 04/27/12 #SPX $ES

This is just so stupid. Well, everything is truly stupid these days. The extend and pretend game, the implicit belief CB's have to power to solve any problem, the faith that governments serve our best interests and will always be there for us, the belief that piling unmanageable piles of debt on top of already unmanageable amounts will  solve something; it is all pure insanity.

At least we have the Printer in Chief running the show over here spinning growth and stabilization keeping the illusion alive. In the EU they are fractured, disorganized, unbalanced and can not attain the coordination to keep their union alive.

The stress is really beginning to show after the LTRO2 farce bailout pump did not even stabilize things for a month. "Now, two months later, even the members of the European Parliament are openly questioning their belief in the sociopath ECB chief. After laying out the apparent reasons for the LTRO scheme (at a recent European Parliament hearing) to keep banks well-funded, Godfrey Bloom (MEP) describes the implicit reason - or so-called reach-around (sic.) Sarkozy-carry trade to fund governments circumventing Maastricht and article 104 of the ECB's Treaty" Memo To Draghi: We, The People, "Don't Trust You One Inch" | ZeroHedge

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Afternoon Delight 04/26/12 - Desperation

First let me suggest that you read - Tedbits: Tsunami Alert: Send in the Bond Squad; Wolf Wave; Economic Murder | ZeroHedge to grasp the severity of what's happening in Spain right now. "An underwater earthquake has occurred in Spain and is quite possibly occurring now in Italy.  Killer waves are now headed directly at the central banks and financial systems throughout the developed world and at Europe in Particular." Post is full of wonderful data and points that should, if you are not a bulltard, scare the hell out of you.

We will experience GDP in the morning. It is a government data release, so you know what to expect. A manipulated propaganda piece that is favorable to the system and supports the State regardless of the truth. It could miss, but the Bernank has gone out on a limb already with his forecast, and I'm pretty positive there will not be any surprises in this release.

I could go thru a whole bunch of articles proving to you that things here and there are dire, but let's avoid that tonight (plus I have to get to LS2's practice early). Summary - Things suck and they will get worse, but not before they print a few more trillion, lie to you 100 more times via data and words telling you all will be well and then one day it will all implode.

Morning Market Summary and Charts 04/26/12 #SPX $ES

The answer was made clear yesterday that the Fed stands ready to ease at any cost (not any sort of surprise there). Again we heard about the Fed being prepared to take more balance sheet actions, tools available and ZIRP extensions to control inflation. What was most interesting? There was no market reaction (STB is still perplexed by this).

Where was the standard 20 point celebratory ramp? The wording from the Chief of Fiat was strong enough to solicit bulltards from all over the planet to act. Maybe they all shot their wad on AAPL and were not ready for round two. The Europeans were pleased. They opened up knowing that their future looked as bright as a burning pile of fiat could get. In other words, they got the all clear.

That was short lived as reality snuffed the flames and back to earth their markets fell. Reality sucks and Germany is staring it down right now. To Wiemar (print to death) or not to Wiemar (not print and die anyway) is the bridge they must cross at this point. They have fought hard to save the EU, but the monetary union is beyond repair. They can't keep the charade up much longer and critical decisions are coming sooner than later.

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Afternoon Delight 04/25/12 - Fed Speak

To summarize the FOMC - 'We'll do what it takes, and we have all the tools to fix anything that needs fixing. In the mean time things look really bad, so we'll keep rates low perpetually.' Basically the same thing they said the last several announcements. June should be very different as Twist ends a week or so after the next meeting.

Minis 4hr - 1386 is what it's all about.

Morning Market Summary and Charts #SPX $/ES

OK, FOMC day. Let's see what they got. Nothing else matters as we all know it is all about the Fed (and AAPL) and nothing else.

The news remains dire across the pond. UK Economy Double Dips For First Time Since 1970s (which any realist knows we never recovered or left the recession that ended in 2009). Add to that, "Earlier today, the Bundesbank tried to sneak through some EUR3 billion in long-dated (30Y) paper. It didn't quite succeed, because if one excludes the retention by the German bank which already has its hands full with TARGET2, the auction was technically a failure. German 30 Year Bund Auction "Unsubscribed" | ZeroHedge and you are forced to conclude that the financial crisis in the EU is about to take another step towards the fire.

Over here things are not so hot either. Don't be fooled by the BS BLS data manipulation or the CB/Fed speak that all is well. I'm not sure if the Fed is going to be able to avoid this one. "the March durable goods data comes in and it was a complete disaster: instead of dropping modestly by 1.7% as the consensus expected, the March actual print was a massive 4.2% decline, worse than the worst Wall Street forecast, or the most since January 2009!" March Durable Good Implode, Worse Than Lowest Wall Street Forecast And Biggest Drop Since January 2009 | ZeroHedge

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Afternoon Delight 04/24/12 - #Apple Edition

I have to leave just after the announcement due to an LS2 baseball game, so I can't be here. Sorry. You all call it and have a good time. Remember FOMC ends tomorrow, so the potential for news either way is large.

AAPL Weekly - You can see the monthly wedge and my doom and gloom thoughts in this post earlier - AAPL Earnings and Chart - Shanktified

GL and GB!

AAPL Earnings and Chart - Shanktified

The end is near. Growth happens till it doesn't and then Wall St starts setting lower hurdles to perpetuate the lie till that does not work any longer. That is the new peak  life cycle theory developed by renowned chartist, part-time economist, blogger and master bullshit artist Shanky (me).

Seriously, you all know that is how it works these days. Traditional economics can be thrown out with the baby and the bathwater (which it is becoming acceptable these days the trow the baby out, but heavens don't waste that water!). 

Wall St. analysts (I say this every quarter here) are rigging the game. Normally (pre-QE when things were real) if an estimate was lowered price would suffer greatly. These days (with easing - pick your favorite flavor) estimates are lowered and price does not react at all because easing lifts all tides. This creates an artificially low hurdle and the easy beat to perpetuate the HFT/Algo driven, liquidity fed, Wall Streeet/Fed/Treasury farce manipulated POS market we deal with today. 


A quick post on silver

Silver Monthly - Note the pink LT resistance diagonal and see it in the following charts. Also note the yellow support diag and the green channel.

Morning Market Summary and Charts 04/24/12 #SPX $ES

AAPL is all that matters today. I will do an AAPL chart post after the opening bell. Hint - E touch/overthrow of a 12 year massive giant wedge is never a good thing. The end is near.

Well, here we are. After preaching patience and weeks of earnings and waiting on the FOMC meeting, my days of reckoning have arrived. Tomorrow is a big one as well, but maybe the Fed will play their hand today.

Minis 30m - Busted pink November support was a big deal yesterday. The backtest of the more recent channel (yellow) is now complete. Can they stretch it back to 1378/80 ares for a backtest of the pink diag? This chart has all the key support and resistance points on it. Remember an even bigger deal is that lower green support diagonal which is what I am seeing as a neckline of a head and shoulders that targets the 1290 area.

Monday, April 23, 2012

Afternoon Delight 04/23/12 - SHTF Edition

As mentioned this morning, all the charts are finally adding up to an increasingly narrowing point where it appears some major event is about to happen. TA is there across many markets. The stars are aligned.

The Russian Market being closed today would make for a nice first domino. French elections, Greece elections, Dutch resignations, EU non easing, Fed non easing, AAPL miss, MENA, Israel, Iran, Egypt, Syria, China ... I could go on and on. We're one 'event' from a tidal wave of erupting the emotional powder keg that is global tension.

Weekly Indicator Chart - (Best viewed at the link) - I'm looking at the last three major tops and none of them turned on a dime. They all gave us at least one major corrective and rally to a higher high before the ultimate collapse. I'm not saying that has to happen here. I like the right shoulder being complete and the ultimate top being set for the three phase 'recovery' that was not really a recovery. Look closely at the chart below off the 667 lows and see what $27 trillion can do for a market (and banksters wallets) in an economy that is turning to dust. Green Dashed lines would be an optimal fall scenario for me.

Morning Market Commentary and Charts 04/23/12 #SPX $ES

OK, this is not good (if you are a bulltard). Pink support off the November lows has been breached and so has the recent blue bull trap/ bear flag channel. This appears to be a real break and not just some tail they are gonna throw thru support. As always, I will caution against the backtest of both breaks.

Friday, April 20, 2012

Open Weekend Post 04/21-22/12 #Rant #Entitlement Must Stop!

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

Warning, this post is not meant to ruin your weekend, but to wake you up.

Want a taste of reality in America. Something some of the readers of this blog never experience or see. Want to know the Democrats big secret and who Obummer's biggest supporters are?

We must stop the entitlement system!

After this post "Your EBT Card Has Been Denied": 700,000 Are About To Lose Their Extended Jobless Claims Benefits | ZeroHedge I gots ta scrap aroung YouTubes ant foun dis - Warning! Try not to throw something or throw up after watching this.

Free everything BITCHEZ! And the more kids you have the better!

Morning Market Summary and Charts - 04/20/12 #SPX $ES

Let's make it simple since it is a Friday morning. I have for months been telling you patience, form and follow the Fed. I firmly believe that the markets are no longer independent and function solely as a tool of the Fed, treasury and Wall St. to serve their greed. For this reason you must ditch all theoretical and independent thoughts and analysis.

All you can reliably do these days is follow the easing. that means when the IMF meets and begs for money this weekend (remember Paulson's 2008 threat - yup, here we go again), the G20/7 meeting, the EBS and then the Fed meet on the 24th and 25th. Don't forget that AAPL announces Tuesday. For this reason for the past couple of weeks I have been pointing to the 24th and 25 as key dates and the markets have not broken pink support and have held in anticipation of the results of these meetings.

Thursday, April 19, 2012

Afternoon Delight 04/19/12 - One Simple Picture

OK, I saw this and that was it. This is all you need to see today. I hope this gets into your head - A picture tells several hundred trillion words (or more) -

"A month ago we presented the latest derivatives update from the OCC, according to which the Top 5 US banks held 95.7%, or $221 trillion of the entire US derivative universe (which in turn is just a modest portion of the entire $707 trillion in global derivatives as of June 30, 2011). And while the numbers of all this credit money, because that's what it is, and the variation margin associated with all these trillions in bets is all too real, appeared impressive on paper, they did not do this story enough service. So to present, visually this time, the US derivatives problem, we go to our friends from Demonocracy, who put the $229 trillion derivative 'issue' in its proper context. For those curious what a paper equivalent of bailing out the US derivatives market would look like, now you know." The Mother Of All Infographics: Visualizing America's Derivatives Universe | ZeroHedge

Click on this link for the best view - Click it!

Derivatives - The Unregulated Global Casino for Banks

Morning Market Summary and Charts 04/19/12 #SPX $ES

What can you say, the futures are high as hell on hopium. Let's review the news bites that have the market showing morning wood.

First let's look at what the sheeple will see and hear from the propagandist MSM. "U.S. stock index futures pointed to a higher open on Thursday after a better-than-expected Spanish bond auction lifted investor sentiment about peripheral Europe, and more solid earnings contributed to the notion that the U.S. banking system is on the rise." Futures Lifted by Bank Earnings, Spain Auction - CNBC

Stop right there. Read no further. By reading farther you endanger your person by exposing yourself to the truth behind the numbers. Be a good little sheeple, see the good headlines, read the first sentence of the story and go plow all your retirement assets into some AAPL shares. Warning, the truth behind the numbers can be harmful to your portfolio, so go buy a $5 Starbucks Mocha Latte and don't sweat the details.

BAC beats! Oh really, care to elaborate on that? "Yet the number that the market is fascinated by is the one arising from "negative valuation adjustments" of $4.8 billion, which included $1.5 billion in DVA "resulting from the narrowing of the company's credit spread", and resulted in a $0.28 per share addition." Bank of America Earnings: Cutting Through The Noise | ZeroHedge. So a profit of 31 cents versus an estimated 12 cents was the beat, now do some math and tell me just how much the 28 cents just discussed made a difference. "Accountant fudge heaven" is an appropriate way of describing this "beat". But all the public will hear is big beat, and all CNBS will report is whatever the government allows them to on the subject. I can't wait to see what magical tricks MS used when that analysis comes out.

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Afternoon Delight 04/18/12 - The Wheels Are Falling Off

OK, first review this video and then we'll review this blog's presiding theme for at least the past year.

Bob Janjuah Dismisses Central Bank Independence Amid Monetary Anarchy | ZeroHedge

I have no clue about the 1500 talk, but with this centrally planned and wholly manipulated market you can not discount the possibility especially with the market being all there is left between the government and total anarchy in this nation and in an election year.

For more than a year STB has been on the crash to get QE3 (and another short squeeze) call. Recently I have been looking for the standard 15 to 20% corrective when Twist ends and that will be followed by screams and demands for QE3 or some sort of intervention to raise the markets into the elections regardless the consequences. Bob discusses 1300 and mid 1200's which have been mentioned here very often recently with my possible low of 1170. I get tickled when the experts come to where I have been for some time.

Daily SPX - See Bob's 1300 and mid 1200 (1260 to be exact) targets on the chart? You can then move to 1220 and then my 1170 target as well.

Morning Market Commentary and Charts 04/18/12 #Rant #SPX $ES

OK, STB is gonna take a slightly different route this morning. This is taking the rants to a new level. No matter what religion you are there is good and bad, so feel free to translate this into your belief. I think you will totally get where I am going with this. I do not do the religious thing often (bout once a year here, but it is often discussed in the comments), but I've been moved so here it goes.

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Afternoon Delight 04/17/12 - BTFD Rulz!

BTFD bitchez! What a day. A little Spanish bond success and some earnings beats and BAM! Must have been the makings of a secret sauce that launches the /ES from a 1359 overnight low to a high of 1388 (a 29 point surge - in one day remember). Wow is all I can muster at this point. Just when you think the bears have them cornered and the markets are sitting on support overlooking the cliff of doom, in come the bots to do their bidding. I guess we have come to expect these moves and they are really not all that surprising anymore. Heck, I don't even get angry and throw things like I used to.

Don't get used to this and get caught in the bull trap. Things are not well at all. They may be able to maintain or extend and pretend a bit longer, but they are not solving anything. As this post remarks, "It did not take long for the honeymoon following LTRO2 to end and despite today's exuberance, Italian and Spanish equity markets (as well as financial credits) have collapsed as Spain's sovereign risk has skyrocketed. While Spanish bank holdings of Spanish govvies, ECB lending to Spanish banks, and Spanish credit risk are surging so is one other much more worrisome fundamental trend - that of corporate non-performing loans." LTROver | ZeroHedge

Morning Markets Summary and Charts 04/17/12 #SPX $ES

Well, well, well how bout that pop from 1359 to 1374 resistance overnight. Nothing like going to bed at the doorstep of hell only to find you wake up the next morning three blocks away in a safer place. Once the EU markets opened everything took off. I guess all is well and that Spain thingy is just nothing to worry about. The YPF (Your Portfolio is Fucked) takeover was nothing that should be of concern. Just a bit of nationalization going down. That stuff happens all the time.

Folks, I wish I could come up with some slick ass poetic and over the top explanation for why the market does what it does, but in reality there is none. All these windbags tout correlations and currency movements and betas and alphas and historical this and that and theories and on and on. That is all irrelevant today (like the VIX). This market is a centrally planned crony capitalist system the relies solely on how much liquidity is fabricated to keep it alive. Movements are coordinated at the top and nothing happens without prior approval from the Fed. It is a bullshit system that is run by computer algorithms and over sized margin positions that tilt everything one way of the other. It is a lopsided mess with AAPL making up some unrealistic weighting.

Monday, April 16, 2012

Afternoon Delight 04/16/12 - Near Death Experience

Ok, I'm not sure how to summarize the news and events of the day and what's to come the rest of the week. Let me say that things are not good, and I'm considering the  Duck and Cover call. For those that missed it last time - it has a catchy tune, Bert the turtle and is about par for some government sponsored propaganda but this information is important to all. Remember what to do if you see a bright flash.

Other than Farrakhan Threatens: People Will Kill Their Leaders In A Few Days the news was quite normal. You know, Spain imploding, AAPL's plunge, GOOG dumping, the MSM and markets over hype the positive in C's massive revenue missArgentina Default Risk Surges On YPF Nationalization, CDS Approach 1000 bps, the LTRO2 epic fail and many more newsworthy items hit the boards today. Just your average day on the global financial scene, and the markets reaction to all of that was a ho hum DOW up 71. Amazing resiliency that DOW has.

Morning Market Commentary and Charts 04/16/12 #SPX $ES

To be kind (and appease the handler) I'll start with the establishment's spin on C earnings. "Citigroup reported lower first-quarter profit on Monday, as the bank worked to contain expenses in the face of volatile capital markets and the need to finish overhauling its business portfolio after the financial crisis. Citigroup Profit Beats Street, Revenue Falls Short - US Business News - CNBC

Now we are past that, we'll deliver the STB take on C's earnings. First, the crisis was in 2008 and here we are 4 years later. One would think that the "overhaul" would have been completed some time ago. Second, they say "after the financial crisis". Uh, hello, McFly, the crisis NEVER ENDED. Third, a revenue miss of 47%? I don't care what line of crap you try and feed me, that is a total disaster. I suggest you eternal optimists read The Two Charts That Matter From Citi's Earnings Presentation | ZeroHedge.

Friday, April 13, 2012

Open Weekend Post 04/14-15/12

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

Interesting times. I guess the pertinent question is, how does it feel standing on the edge of the abyss? Tough to speculate with QE/no QE, Spain imploding, earnings and everything else under the sun going down. I do not like the fact that the whole world is on this top, but sometimes that happens. Sunday night should be interesting. As noted I'm looking down with 1341 as a key number all the while I will try and hold out till AAPL and the FOMC on the 24th. Charts still look nasty.

You need to see this. It is an oldie but a goodie. For those that do not understand the banking system (or think they do but do not really) you need to watch this.

The American Dream Film-Full Length - YouTube

Morning Market Summary and Charts 04/13/12 #SPX $ES

Happy Friday the 13th! Triscaidecafobia - Wikipedia

Fluff and puff, that's was what was to be expected and exactly what you gotr from JPM's earnings. JPM Earnings Beat Courtesy Of $0.28 Benefit From Loan Loss Reserves Despite First Increase In Nonperforming Loans In Years | ZeroHedge. Just like Repo 105 had its quarter or two in the spotlight assisting in the earnings ramp, apparently CVA's have gone their way and now a reduction in loan loss reserves is the pump cause flavor of the quarter. What financial voodoo they pull next quarter is anyone's guess.

Late yesterday and last night were pretty busy news wise. You had a GOOG beat, a China GDP miss, more positive QE rhetoric and Spain CDS exploding again. So you have a mix of the bad and the (what they want you to believe is) good (that's not). Earnings continue, FOMC meeting (QE rumors) in less than two weeks and Spain will be the dominant market drivers for the next two weeks. Here are some key earnings to note in the next few weeks.

Thursday, April 12, 2012

Morning Market Summary and charts 04/12/12 - $SPX $ES $Gold $Silver $Oil $Dollar

Let's make this very simple this morning - Last week we were not going to QE and the markets started to fall. Six days in a row and 70 SPX points later I guess that was all they wanted to see. Now we suddenly have Dudley Joins Yellen In Leaving QE Door Wide Open | ZeroHedge. Maybe they knew the jobs number was going to miss and Dudley was trying to goose the futures? I would not put it past them. Initial Jobless Claims Soar Past Expectations, Hit 380K, Highest Since January | ZeroHedge.

Either way the full court QE press is back on. Strangely the markets are not reacting as they should. With Yellen talking about taking ZIRP to 2015 (wasn't it just last August they moved that timetable to 2014?) the truth is becoming more clear. Things suck. How bad do they suck (or should I say how bad has the Bernank's liquidity reflation trade failed)? I suggest you read Presenting Economic Reality | ZeroHedge

Earnings season suck and I hate it. GOOG after the close today and JPM in the morning. That may keep market activity down as we wait on the numbers.

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Afternoon Delight 04/11/12 - The Topping Process

Not if but when is most appropriate. Has the market run it's course for this QE cycle? Is the rain in Spain about to become a market wrecking EU destabilizing cat 5 hurricane? Are high gas prices destroying consumer sentiment and sacking retail? Is it time for the Fed to cool the presses? The negative issues go on and on. On the other side we have all the questions surrounding the persistent rumors or promise of further easing, the next FOMC meeting on the 24th and the first three important weeks of earnings season.

What's coming with earnings? (partial from a quick scan)

GOOG after the bell tomorrow
JPM and WFC before the bell Friday
C Monday before the open
YHOO and IBM sometime, GS, JNJ KO before the open and INTC after the close Tuesday
HAL before and YUM after Wednesday
BAC before and MSFT after Thursday
MCD before Friday
AAPL sometime Tuesday the 24th in conjunction with the FOMC meeting. 

STB hates earnings season (documented here every quarter). It is the most unpredictable time of the year. The fraudulent accounting, FASB rules apparently no longer exist, Repo 105, CVA's and a total lack of regulation all joined with the analysts on Wall St. low balling everything make for a time that it's best to sit back and watch. I'll scalp and maybe do a short swing or two if momo is moving in a particular direction, but for the most part I'm a spectator. It used to not be this way and was one of my favorite times to invest or speculate.

My attention will be focused on AAPL and the FOMC meeting on the 24th and 25th. AAPL earnings can hold up the oceans (and so can the promise of more QE), so those dates will be the next marker for STB. I'm not saying anything can't happen between now and then. Up appears to be seriously in question and the bears seem to be wanting to run with the ball.

As noted on the minis the pink diag near 1357 I have been showing held for now, and I've been looking at 1341 level as a potential neckline point. If that number goes anything could happen. I have also discussed the need for a catalyst. If Spain/employment miss/US downgrade only got us 70 points on the minis, what's it gonna take to get a real move started? Right now I'm hoping price hits 1341 and stops to finish the head and launch a right shoulder that targets as low as 1260. If this move is for real I'm liking the 1170 (updated from 1140) area and the QE3 call (and a massive short squeeze) to save the markets till the US runs out of money just before the election in September. Of course the wild card in that scenario is a Greek relapse and a Spain default or near default.

That's a lot of stuff, but that's the world we live in. Many variables in play. Wild cards everywhere that can be sprung anytime. It appears that the failure of LTRO2, the Fed's apparent inability to ease at this time (based on gas prices not to mention other things) and Spain rearing its ugly head have the markets scared to death and barely hanging on at this point.

As for the topping process, the data suggests (as I have been charting all week and as seen in recent price action) there are few support points to stop slides and that big chunks will be taken in short periods of time if things fail here. Overbought is an understatement.

Weekly SPX - Just nasty and you can see the HnS scenario and the three neckline possibilities.

Monthly SPX - Updated last night but little changed. Yes, I think that is what the markets are going to do eventually and that this top will be the last and lower lows (lower than '08) are coming. I may tinker and add another fall scenario that at least gets us out to the election. Note the incredible weakness of this run in the divergences on the indicators.

That's enough for now. Patience, form and follow the Fed still rule. I probably should have called a top by now, but I'm waiting on that 1341 to crack and holding out till the FOMC/AAPL event if I can.

GL and GB!

Morning Market Summary and Charts 04/11/12 $SPX $ES

A brief lull after AA before JPM Friday. Here is the earnings calendar - U.S. Earnings: Company Earnings Calendar - Bloomberg. you should keep a close eye on what's coming and when especially the TBTF's and AAPL. At this time I suspect the whole market, no matter how bad things are may hold up waiting on Apple (I'll do a post on that closer to the release).

Right now the main things is the rain in Spain. Bloomberg TV this morning could not get enough of the "next Greece". Apparently they are the only ones as everyone else wants out of Greece. As we've discussed here since the PIIGS were identified, the end will not be a pretty sight. We've only moved thru the G and have 5 more larger problems to come. No need to rehash the debt crisis. The bottom line is nothing can work and the more money they throw at the problem only extends and pretends that all will be well again one day when it won't. The fuse is lit. The only question is how long does it take to ignite the source?

A quick look at the dollar - LT Yellow channel support and 78 support area have held for now. ST blue channel up running into green diagonal resistance at 80.25 resistance. Really a key moment as the dollar is set up to either break out to test recent highs or if yellow channel support breaks a move to 76 and then 74 will be in order. 

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Afternoon Delight 04/10/12 - Market Review

Well, earnings season is off . Here is your calendar U.S. Earnings: Company Earnings Calendar - Bloomberg. AA today, "The largest U.S. aluminum producer posted first-quarter earnings excluding items of 10 cents per share, down from 28 cents a share in the year-earlier period. However, the number beat analysts' expectations: The consensus estimate called for a loss of four cents a share, according to Thomson Reuters." Alcoa Kicks Off Earnings Season With a Big Beat - US Business News - CNBC. As usual with CNBS the truth is always exaggerated in the headlines. So off .18 cents from a year earlier but beat a loss of .04 cents - really? That is a wide window and favorable beat. (futures drifting north to 1360 after the close)

STB used to like to talk about earnings cycles and low and high bar hurdles. Earnings used to be a season that was predictable when markets were real and cycles were part of a normal progression of the markets. Not any longer. Now the Wall St analysts set the bar wherever it needs to be. If they get that wrong they revise without penalty into a market being constantly lifted by QE. When the beat hits, CNBS and the controlled MSM cheerleaders go nuts and throw it all in your face. Get out there and buy baby or you will miss the run!

Morning Chartapalooza 04/10/12 $SPX $ES

Read 'em and weep. All we need now is a catalyst. I'm not sure what it is going to take afer the employment data and a US downgrade did little. The promise of easing hangs over the markets and the liquidity pumps are still on. It is painfully clear what will happen if they turn the liquidity off (see 2010 and 2011). I'm not sure the Fed is willing to let that happen in an election year. The Fed might have to cool the presses a bit or take some sort of breather. The only thing keeping me from calling a top right now is the upcoming FOMC meeting April 24- 25. I almost pulled the trigger on the top call this morning.

FOMC Meeting chart -

Monday, April 9, 2012

Morning Market Summary and Charts 04/09/12 $SPX $ES

Even after a long weekend holiday, when you have had time to get away and relax, remove yourself from everything and basically morph into a lump of jello for three days coming back to this crap can be hard. Reality persists and those that don't get it are growing in number. I spoke to several shop owners on vacation that honestly believe the recession is over, all is well and followed up that conversation with the term "cash on the sidelines". Man, oh man, the sheeple don't get it. Locked into their little worlds they have created for themselves, they sit and dream and all is well again totally clueless to what's coming. They remind me a bit of a Fed economist.

Wasn't it Faber last week that warned 'Massive Wealth Destruction' Is About to Hit Investors: Faber - US Business News - CNBC

One reality that not one shop owner knew of (or could care less about as they don't get the concept either) was that right after the close Thursday Egan Jones Downgraded USA From AA+ To AA, Outlook Negative | ZeroHedge. "A few weeks ago when discussing the imminent debt ceiling breach, and the progression of US debt/GDP into the 100%+ ballpark, we reminded readers that in February S&P said it could downgrade the US again in as soon as 6 months if there was no budget plan. Not only is there no budget plan, but the US is about to have its debt ceiling fiasco repeat all over as soon in as September. Which means another downgrade from S&P is imminent, and continuing the theme of deja vu 2011, the late summer is shaping up for a major market sell off. Minutes ago, Egan Jones just reminded us of all of this, after the only rating agency that matters, just downgraded the US from AA+ to AA, with a negative outlook."

Sunday, April 8, 2012

Sunday Night Open Post

Comments are set to close after three days so I threw this up. I'll be watching the futures and post anything interesting if I see it. I'll also be updating some charts tonight.

Thursday, April 5, 2012

Open Weekend Post - 04/06-07/12

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

Happy Easter to all and to others, happy holiday weekend.

Not much to say other than I'll be watching the futures (and the Master's replay) with an eagle eye Sunday night.

My best effort at retaining the charting holiday spirit. Laugh with me, not at me. Yes, that is an Easter Bunny! Trust me, I could have done many things with this little dude, but I refrained. He almost had a gun in one hand and an American flag in the other, but I thought the Handler would have frowned on that. LOL.

Morning Market Summary And Charts 04/05/12 $SPX $ES

Well, is the old STB goes on vaca and the market crashes theory in play again? I somehow doubt that as the liquidity train is still on the tracks, but those tracks are apparently running on a severe uphill slope and the curves at the top of the mountain are becoming increasingly difficult to manage.

The charts since the SPX 1292 double top back in January (the first instance out of 5 - if not more - times so far this market could/should have topped technically) have done nothing but increasingly worsen in terms of underylying strength. That is actually an understatement as the divergences in the indicators have worsened significantly since mid March creating a dreaded 'double divergence'.

All STB has done since the beginning of the year is preach patience, form and follow the Fed. We looked towards two FOMC meetings, the Greek bailout and then LTRO2 as key points that all failed to deliver any sort of turn. The key to each event really revolves around the continuing promise of liquidity, nothing else really.

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Morning Summary and Charts 04/04/12 $SPX #ES

I'll be around this morning, but you all will have to hold the fort down this afternoon.

SPX 60m - Just nasty. Fresh (and different) chart this AM.

GL and GB!

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Morning Market Summary and Charts 04/03/12 $SPX $ES

Get with the program folks. If you don't fully understand we're headed for the cliff, like THE cliff of all cliffs, you better. Like TD says, "Good night." America's Future, Interrupted | ZeroHedge. We're aging and can't afford the costs associated with it and do not have enough jobs and worker bees to support the system that is in place. The funny thing, as if this picture is not bad enough, I'm not addressing the debt issue and everything associated with the last great bubble.

SPX Daily - And the liquidity pump makes for a pretty picture of that cliff. Well, this chart just covers the top of the cliff. There is plenty more room to fall not seen on this chart. Glad I did not update a bunch of charts yesterday or I'd be bitchin about having to raise all the fibs again. The double divergence here are just sick indicating that when (along with like 1,000 other factors) this market does turn the fall will be swift and come in large chunks. Sadly with the Fed under total control in this election year the catalyst will have to be something earth shattering (What? Do you thing the Fed is gonna stop printing and pull liquidity? HA! That's funny.).

Monday, April 2, 2012

Afternoon Delight 04/02/12 - They Stole Easter

An STB attempt at telling a (very) short story. This is new, so just deal with it if it sucks. The thing is that you get the message not how well written it is.

And the moral of the story is to not allow your freedoms to be stolen by corrupt representatives that serve the corporate elite and to not let the system control your life and steal your individual liberties.

They Stole Easter

So the family is all dressed up in their Easter best headed to the annual church egg hunt. Mom, dad and little Sally (I could have made this a single struggling mom that the system is really throwing under the buss but that would have been too harsh) load the Easter baskets and cameras into the car and head off.

Running a tad late dad is in a hurry so they are going a bit fast while driving. At the last light before the church the light is turning yellow. Dad thinks nothing of it on a Sunday afternoon with little to no traffic and cruises thru the yellow/red light and pulls into the parking lot (more on this later)

They park and head to the field where the egg hunt will be. Dad gets out the video camera and starts rolling to preserve the memories. They get in line to check in and when they get to the front there are men and women dressed in blue checking bags and giving everyone the wand. Dad is promptly asked to turn the camera off. He thinks nothing of it and complies. Sally is pulled aside for a special pat down by the really thin, tall, balding man with the bushy mustache, strange smile and thick glasses. She checks out just fine he says and sends her on her way.

Once thru the security checkpoint the children are all lined up ready to start the hunt, but there is a problem. The organizer shows up noticing something is not fair. Based solely on the organizer's opinion that person lines the children up in the order they will be able to enter the field to begin the hunt. That person also tells the children that get to go first which color eggs have the special prizes.

Dad gets the camera rolling again and is promptly told to turn it off.

The kids start the hunt (Sally is one of the kids that do not get to start first) and mom and dad stand with the pastor. Dad asks the preacher man what's up with the security? Was there a threat or something? Nope Padre says, this is all for the good. This is all so we do what the bible says and support and serve the government's new system to make sure you are safe and that all are treated fairly.

Dad next asks about the organizer's decision to allow certain children to start before others. Padre says that this is better for those that need the extra assistance. He reminds dad that it is in the spirit of the new government system that all are treated with equal chance to succeed and do well in the hunt. Dad keep his mouth shut, ponders all that's going on and turns his camera back on (and is promptly asked to turn it back off).

The hunt goes well for Sally, a pretty, bright athletic young girl she is able to sweep thru the field (even with her delayed start) and be one of the first to fill her basket. At the exit of the hunt she is asked to place all of her eggs on a table where they organizers review her haul. Dad then notices that they start taking some of her eggs and placing them in a bin behind their table.

She is then sent with her basket (now half full) to the people with the blue shirts to make sure she did not place any of the eggs in her clothing and is not trying to steal anything. Mustache man with the strange smile is there again with his plastic gloves on ready for the pat down. Dad turns the camera on and .. well you know.

Mom and Dad have had enough and want to know why they took her eggs and sent her thru for another pat down? The pastor quickly intervenes and reminds the parents that this is all for the good of the system. It is so everyone is treated fairly. He reminds the parents that some of the kids are lazy and are not as eager to hunt as Sally is, so they took her eggs to give to those that did not do as well as she did.

Wasn't hat the purpose of the delayed start dad asks? Yes, says the pastor, but some that were given a head start and were told which eggs to get still did not do well enough. He goes on to remind the parents that this is all in the bible. The government is just there making sure all are safe and treated fairly.

Mom and dad and Sally with her half full basket head to the car and leave.

A week later a ticket for running a red light shows up in the mail with a photo from the camera at the red light that dad cruised thru that Sunday afternoon.

The End.

OK, that was weak, but it was a short story. I could have gone a lot deeper, but needed to keep it brief. If I had been the dad that story would have ended with me going to jail. Bottom line is that this story is reality. The blue shirts are checking us everywhere, the ones that succeed are having their wealth stolen from them, the ones that produce nothing are being encouraged not to, you can't film anything while they film you and the church is actually being used to get you to accept the system for what it is.

This is real and you need to know how their or the new society is being forced on you. You are now part of a larger controlled system. Please know this is real and wake up to the fact. Don't believe me? Open your eyes.

GL and GB!

Morning Market Summary and Charts 04/02/12 $SPX $ES

So, what do you think will happen on a low volume holiday week with bad data raining from the sky? Well, if trend holds that should deliver about 60 upside points for the SPX. Add to that there is a Head and Shoulders formation and the Right Shoulders these days and to act more like launching pads than breakdown points.

I'd like to think (and will caution against) this is what's going to happen, but I'm not sure they can force price much higher here. Price is stretching the known limits of market gravity and the economy is crumbling. The charts are screaming top (more not than anytime on this 6 month run). As STB has speculated, a catalyst is necessary. What could happen other than the Fed pulling liquidity (which ain't happenin) that could bring this market down? Apparently economic data attrition is not enough.

SPX 60m - This is pretty simple, either the HnS breaks down or it does not. Target areas are the green rectangles.