Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Morning Market Commentary and Charts 01/31/12 #SPX

Well, they managed to close the gap on the minis and calm the seas for the moment. There really is not much to say this morning as we simply wait out the Greek bailout solution. The drama continues and with that drama comes a confused market. Placing bets here does little good when the swing on the outcome has the potential to be wildly dramatic. Add to that Portugal waiting in the wings with both hands out, and the rest of the EU is not in any better shape.

Here is the bottom line, when do the bailouts end? At what point do they give up? It is obvious that austerity is not and will not happen. The tables have been turned with Greece now holding the WMD willing to pull the trigger on its self (and Portugal following). That of course will blow up everything.

Monday, January 30, 2012

Morning Market Summary and Charts 01/30/12 #SPX

Markets moving from a strengthening state of limbo to a weakening state of limbo as the Greek and EU crisis continues to linger. Linger is not the correct term for an unsolvable crisis, I'm not sure what to call it. Danger still exists for the bears in the form of the Fed stealth market support. The illusion that the debt crisis can be solved is being kept alive by the likes of the peons on CNBS that still talk of hope and that the crisis is only another trillion away from being solved and all will resume as normal. They can throw more money at it, but that solves nothing, and there the crux of the problem lies.

Discussion of the golden cross is very popular today. That instance signifies the dislocation of the markets from reality. I have a feeling that the cross will be looked back on historically as a marker of the spot in time when things were no longer what they appeared to be. That moment where the twilight zone was entered. That moment where the illusion that all was well failed.

SPX 60m - I think this chart is all you need today as it gives the smallest and most recent wedge breakdown inside the potential larger black wedge scenario and all the support and fib targets you need.

Friday, January 27, 2012

Open Weekend Post 01/28-29/12

You know the drill share the love and the knowledge.

Not much here for the post - Tired of reporting on this manipulated BS for the week. Little burned out so taking a break. Need to get away from the news and data for a day or two. I may update and get you some links in the post over the weekend. That means you all get to provide the content if you don't mind. Market based, police state, Ron Paul abuse - pick your poison and let it flow.

Looking forward to Sunday, if the Greeks come up with a solution (don't know why - they have missed every deadline so far and it is apparent no one wants to give them any more money or take a massive haircut) it would be a surprise. I plan on being online Sunday night getting ready for next week, watching the futures and updating the charts.

Have a great weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning Market Summary and Charts 01/27/12 #SPX

Did someone call shenanigans? If not they should have. GDP was not so hot (and you know those numbers are pumped up to make them look better than they actually are). So what happened to all this crap about 2.5% or those considering "raising" estimates or ranges up to 3.5%? Where did all that talk go? Where did all that talk get us? Just another Wall St. shenanigan to get you to believe all is well so you will remain invested. The funny part (well, not so funny) is that not one "analyst" will have their feet held to the fire (they never do) for this bullshit.

Q4 GDP Misses Estimates, Inventory Stockpiling Accounts For 1.9% Of 2.8% Q4 US Economic Growth | ZeroHedge  "where a whopping 1.94% of the upside was attributable to a rise in inventories as restocking took place. And as everyone knows in this day and age a spike in inventories only leads to sub-cost dumping a few months later. In other words, the economy grew at a 0.8% pace ex inventories. Yet for all intents and purposes, this is considered "growth.""

The lies will catch up to them one day, and when that day comes there will be hell to pay. Sadly it will not be just the liars and cheats that will get it in the end, but all of us will be effected

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Morning Market Summary and Charts 01/26/12 #SPX

I think I have a FOMC hangover. Like I got absolutely pummeled yesterday on hopium and am waking up today wondering what the hell happened while I was passed out. It was a normal day and then the Fed spiked my cocktail. Then this euphoric nightmare happened. The Fed spoke of ZIRP to eternity and conditions that warranted serious monitoring, but thru all the warnings and awful news this angel appeared. I thought it funny she had a pitchfork, horns and a tail, that's meaningless. She brought 'accommodative policy' with her and all of a sudden the skies turned bright, Wall St. rejoiced and all fears of market weakness were immediately erased.

When I finally came to, I realized this was not a hallucination or a dream. It is the new reality. A centrally planned crony capitalist cleptocracy now rules the globe. Nothing matters anymore other than maintaining the markets lofty levels while the wealth transfer from the poor to ultra rich accelerates. Whether right, wrong or indifferent it does not matter.

I've explained this for years now and you have to listen and believe. All that stands between the government/Fed/crony system and the public going totally ape is the illusion that the stock market is healthy and your wealth (what's left of it) is just fine, growing and safe. A failure of the stock market leads to the failure of everything at this point. From the complete pension system to what little privately held wealth is left, they are hanging on by any means possible at this time, cause when the markets go, so does everything else.

I am still taken back by their audacity and the fact that this is actually happening to America. The special interest controlled congress has effectively deregulated everything and the horses are out in the pastures running wild. While we live in a society with ever increasing controls and laws, the crony capitalists represent a Teflon Don (Corzine) that can do what they want without fear of any repercussions. Whatever it takes no matter the cost to keep the system going is the only rule for them now.

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Afternoon Delight 01/25/12 - The Beginning of the End

The Feds announcement today and the stock market's reaction to it signaled to me that reality truly no longer exists. Fair, random walk, DOW theory - you can throw it all out the window. For those that have not been on the manipulation train for the past two years and do not believe in such things, I have a feeling that you will not  awaken from your slumber till it is far too late.

What the non-believers see is a rising market and an economy that is "recovering" on most "data" points. What non-believers don't see is reality and that the Fed told them today that all is not well. With the Fed seeing "exceptionally low rates thru 2014" does not sound all that promising does it? "Housing remains depressed" is not good. The Fed reiterating "Significant downside risks" does not sound so hot either. What does ring loudly in the ears of the bulltards is "Fed expects to maintain a 'highly accommodative' monetary policy" and that is all that matters.

The flow of "funds" or "QE" or whatever fiat forces that make it from the Fed to the markets that lift and give the illusion all is well in the markets has blinded (intentionally) the bulltards. The fact that the Fed is monetizing debt at an exponential rate to keep the banks open and the system alive means nothing to the non-believers. They believe that the recovery is real which is the farthest possible position from reality. But the bulltards keep making money and with every tick higher they become more bold in their belief all is well. This is just what "they" want, welcome to the trap.

Charting Apple (AAPL) - Resistance is Strong

I love AAPL and all its products, but all good things must come to an end (or at least a pause at some point). I'm not saying here and now AAPL turns for good or anything like that, but in the next year or so the charts say that the run will end or at least finally begin the topping process.

The argument for this being a blow off top and a near term turn to come is pretty strong technically. (Note this fits with the supposedly impending slide in the equity markets.) Last week I posted Is Apple (AAPL) Headed For a 50% Haircut? where I warned to wait thru earnings to make any decisions. Well now earnings has come and gone, so is it time to make a big boy decision?

Looking at the charts -

AAPL Daily - Now the daily chart is setting a double negative divergence while price spiked right to and stopped at upper diagonal (black) resistance). Double negs on a daily are never good.

Morning Market Summary and Charts 01/25/12 #SPX #Gold

On January 04, 2012 I gave you this -

"FOMC Schedule - You all know that I love and preach following the Fed. This FOMC Meeting chart has been a wonderful tool for STB. I have used it combined with TA to make some pretty fine calls (if I may say) for some time now. At this moment it appears that a move to upper resistance (blue) at the FOMC meeting on Jan 24-25 would be a likely call and something traders should keep an eye on." Shanky's Technical Analysis and Market Commentary: Morning Post 01/04/12, SPX

FOMC Meeting Schedule - Of the 13 instances on this chart where markets have been rising into FOMC meetings going back to June of '11 where price is rising to the meeting only once has it failed.

Here is the same chart today with the only change having added the upper thin blue diagonal (which must admit did not thing was in the equation) and having moved the blue arrow up.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Afternoon Delight 01/24/12 - D-Day

This is gonna be a summary AD - tomorrow is the big day. One way or the other we get clarity and the FOMC behind us. I've walked us up to this point and all that is left is the FOMC meeting (well, and that Greek thing that was supposed to be over by now).

AAPL blew out earnings. One of the reasons my shorts were on hold for the markets.  Earnings in general are miserable, but apparently earnings don't matter anymore (except for AAPL).

What will potus have to move the markets tonight? It will mostly be a bunch of crap to move the masses promising things he will never deliver on, but the sheeple will soak up and worship.

FOMC tomorrow is the biggie. It will most likely be a non event but an event none the less. They'll keep verbiage similar and reiterate a weak outlook is my guess.

Morning Market Summary and Charts 01/24/12 #SPX

Isn't this nice to wake up to : Guest Post: EU Finance Ministers Push Through ESM Treaty in Fishy Fly-by-Night Move | ZeroHedge


Europe's most important treaty on the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), which will lead the EU into a financial dictatorship, has been pushed through by EU finance ministers late Monday evening.

But the latest version of the ESM cannot be found on English and German EU websites. A link on consilium EU only leads to a 'file not found' message and the German EU website "Europa von A - Z" does not mention the ESM at all. This reminds one of the secrecy around the Federal Reserve Act, that was pushed through in 1912. Is the EU Commission now playing the same fishy game 100 years later?

Media reports from last midnight only said that the ESM treaty was agreed on by EU finance ministers and mentioned January 30 as the date when the treaty will be officially signed."

Of course the markets do not care about such things as liberty and freedom, those are purely secondary items to the big grab and perpetual printing. This will most likely be another banksta/elite/central planning favored treaty that further en debts the sheeple to serve the system (dent slaves) that favors the richest of the rich and their henchmen.

Monday, January 23, 2012

Afternoon Delight 01/23/12 - It Is A Long Way Downnnnnnn

What can I say, emotions are thru the roof. It has been some time since the rhetoric across the financial blogs has been this testy. It is even bleeding over to the MSM (who are learning that the web is the best source of real information). Call it consensus disbelief.

It actually may be worse now than anytime in the past as even more have bought their tickets and are on the HFT/QE manipulation train. Even more are on the "we're all gonna die anyway so why are we bailing out everyone so what does it matter anyway" story, so why the rampage?

Those situations make my blogging a bit easier as I have been on the manipulation train and preaching it for years. Some thought I was nuts (some - the lost - still do). The sheeple and even some major players are coming around and beginning to voice their disbelief which is quite the change of events.

Morning Market Summary and Charts 01/23/12 #SPX

Well, we have arrived. The week STB has been pointing to for almost a month now. We've made it thru the early earnings and opex, now it is time to get the FOMC meeting, AAPL and the Greek PSI out of the way so the markets can do what they need to, correct or worse.

Minis /es 30m - As I have been noting, yellow rising channel (bullish) is trying to give way to the green rising wedge (bearish) as the markets try to roll over. STB has been spot on with these diagonals all month. That upper heavy red diagonal is resistance off the 1370 top. Pay close attention to that point (1322) if it should get close to it. I see no reason to get excited about anything till the lower green wedge support diagonal falters. Another thing is that diagonal needs to fail with flair in my opinion. The bears need a decisive point that marks the turn. As mentioned last week, the form of the fall, does it have substance, will be very important.  

Friday, January 20, 2012

Open Weekend Post 01/21-22/12 (SPX)

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge. Nice week for lurkers this week as several came out of the closet and did very well on the board. Remember the only rule I have and that is to respects others at all times.

We managed to survive the week. Emotions are wound tighter than they have been in quite some time. Of course this is well deserved. Everyone is in disbelief and quite possibly the central planners pushed the envelope a bit far this time. Why is the big question? My thought is that they are trying their damnedest to suck the sheeple funds in for one last mega scalp (wealth transfer) so they can exit as flush as possible.

GOOGLE (GOOG) The Charts Saw It Coming

Pretty simple post here. I usually throw out a GOOG post with earnings. The weekly chart gave you the set up for the miss.  IMHO this is the best GOOG chart on the net (but then again it is the only one I have seen).

GOOG Weekly -

Morning Post 01/20/12 (SPX)

First let me get this off my chest. To me this is the travesty and a very dark part of not only the markets, but this issue also represents everything that is wrong with our country and the future. GE beats! Why is that such a problem? Because Obummer's Jobs Czar the head of GE sends something like 10,000 of GE's jobs overseas (and those are the ones we know about). So GE gets rewarded for a beat all the while not supporting the country for profit? I don't think so, they should be taken out back and given 20 lashes. Stuff like this really ticks me off. There are so many things inherently wrong with that situation at this time. It is disgusting.

On to the markets - I'm looking for momo in the fall. Momo or a real break south with volume (that is the only time it seems to show up these days) and then for some key support levels to go. This should be a really aggressive move if the set up plays out. On the board here at STB and some major forecasters (we spoke of it first) are noting the fear and unease that surrounds the markets at this point. The central planners are to some very afraid of something and have been protecting the markets.

Many are very frustrated with the markets right now for not falling. I can fully understand. The charts have been prepping for a fall that seemingly will not come. Last week and this Wednesday I posted a full chart review of all the key data points that you need to see (IMO of course not that others don't exist - we all have our own keys). This post is well worth reviewing and has links to all the chart positions currently.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Afternoon Delight 01/19/12 - Chart Porn STB Style!

Let's just do charts today shall we - A bunch I am pulling out of the closet that you have not seen in a while. This is draw your own conclusion day in the STB AD. Report your thoughts and what you do and don't like in the comments below. Me? You know I have been waiting on that FOMC meeting for about three weeks now. Add to that the AAPL earnings. GOOG missed tonight.

Index Comparison Monthly On Top (2) - Here they all are, all your favorite indexes in one place with all the key levels, diagonals and resistance/support points. Looks to me like a bunch of backtests of busted support at key resistance levels under long term resistance. Of course with the debt situation improving (as in continuing to go up, up, up) and the economy screaming along setting all sorts of (negative) records the Trannies and the Q's are closing in on all time highs. That makes a whole bunch of sense to me (/sarc).

Morning Post 01/19/12 (SPX)

You gotta separate what's real from what's false and then place your bets on what's not real. That is the sad reality of investing today. Want proof? Let's look at two reports on BAC from this morning and see what the MSM, Wall St. and the central planners want you to hear and see and then lets look at what's really behind those stellar earnings.

The MSM, all is well, nothing to worry about, throw your money in the pot so you can retire rich and we can make massive fees off of you while you actually go poor view - From CNBC, Bank of America Rebounds to Post Profit; Shares Surge - US Business News - CNBC, "Bank of America matched profit expectations and exceeded revenue estimates for quarterly earnings, sending shares that had been trading below $5 just a month ago spiking higher in premarket trading." and add, "In particular, BofA said it made $2 billion in the fourth quarter by selling its stake in a Chinese bank and selling debt. That offset losses and higher legal expenses in its mortgage business."

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Afternoon Delight 01/18/12 - Levitation

For those looking to know exactly what's going on with the market please see my morning post from today. It is as comprehensive as you will find anywhere. We're nearing a major top. To all the bears out there, as I have preached from the beginning of the year, patience is required.

Following the Fed is the only plan and like a scratched record (for those of you old enough to know what one of those is) I keep repeating the FOMC Meeting Chart. Price today (for whatever reason) tagged the upper resistance diagonal and has met the price objective I thought would be "it". Price actually touched the side of my target circle I drew a few weeks back.

I have no idea what is driving the markets up at this point other than IMF or ECB lending and the hopes that the Greek default will come off without a hitch. I do know that something is not right. One of the theories is (in true bubble fashion) is that the funds rapidly leaving the EU are flowing into our stock market. On the other hand mutual funds are having a net outflow. Could it be unannounced stealth QE? The Fed did say they would use all "tools" at their disposal. Could it be the promise of more QE announced at the FOMC meeting next month? Who knows?

Morning Post 01/18/12 (SPX)

Let's not mince words this morning and make this really simple - we're all fucked and if you don't know that and don't start preparing for the worst case scenario that's your fault. Quit listening to the lame stream media that wants you to buy into the hopium story. Good example - Liesman on CNBS this morning simply asking the question, "Do you believe the market will rise 30% on a Romney election?" Quit listening to the broker dealers and their advisers that count on you for generating fees to support their excessive undeserved salaries. It is all a bunch of shit.

Got that? You better. Tale it from the, "World Bank urges developing economies to “prepare for the worst” as it sees risk for European turmoil to turn into global financial crisis reminiscent of 2008". World Bank Cuts Economic Outlook, Says Europe Is In Recession, Warns Developing Economies To "Prepare For The Worst" | ZeroHedge. Did you read the AD last night? If not go back and read the opening section.

It is all about stimulus and how much money can be thrown at the problem. Folks, realize that we have been throwing money at this problem since 2008 and have done nothing to fix any of the issues. It is the banksters and Wall St. against you and me. The fraud and raping of the middle class wealth funneling everything to the financial institutions creating a new phenomena called debt serfdom. Quick note on the presidential candidates, Ron Paul is the only one that will stop this.

Let's do a full chart review like we did last week -

Daily SPX - Resistance diagonal (black) at resistance area (pink) with weakening underlying indicators.

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Afternoon Delight 01/17/12 - Strange Days

Strange Days indeed! So Standard and Poors downgrades basically all of the EU (and then the banks get follow up downgrades) and the markets go up? Citi misses by a mile and the markets barely flinch? Look, I don't get it, but there is one thing that  matters to the centrally planed markets driven by hopium, the eternal promise of more easing that comes with each FOMC meeting. That's right, every bit of bad news is received with cheers and market pops these days as they only increase the chance of more easing in the future. That's it, easing (Quantitative Easing to be exact), stimulus, a cash injection to the system that causes markets to mysteriously rise to heights usually seen in a bubble not a depression recession recovery.

What's going on that's so great the DOW runs up 60 points today? It must be that we're over the debt ceiling again, out of money and for a second time our government is having to "borrow" from the retirees pension plan to keep the doors open. Treasury Resumes Pillaging Retirement Accounts To Fund Deficit Spending Until Debt Ceiling Raised | ZeroHedge.

Is Apple (AAPL) Headed For a 50% Haircut?

As usual, I only report on what the charts say, nothing else. If you can keep up with the news flow on AAPL be my guest, just check the twitter feed here Twitter / Search - aapl. Revolutionize this or that seems to be the common theme.

I can't argue with them as I love all my iProucts. We did get nooks over IPads and that appears to be working out just fine. Friends have switched to androids from iPhones and those seem to work just fine. Apple seems to be losing some of their dominance on the sector. Is the competition catching up? Who knows? I do know that this company has done incredibly well on the backs of a few products. They do dominate the industry. There is room to grow as the egg throwing Chinese are proving.

I do know one thing, technically on a monthly chart AAPL has begun the dreaded second sharper negative divergence. It is also the only equity with an overbought MACD that rivals that of gold. The rising wedge is ending.

AAPL Monthly - The rising wedge is clear as day. The lowest blue diagonal is a traditional wedge target diagonal once it breaks.

Morning Post 01/017/12 (SPX)

S&P downgrades the world and Citi misses bad and the markets are up and all happy like nothing is wrong. The minis cracked 1300 overnight and the round level has been attained in the futures. What sort of orders exist in this neighborhood is the big question.

STB has warned for weeks now the trend of rising markets to continue that trend  into FOMC meetings, more recently the opex effect and of course of the volatility earnings can deliver. The only rational reason (which is no real reason to celebrate) is the eternal promise of more QE (easing/stimulus). The tide is slowly turning and the bears simply must remain patient. A massive turn is coming sooner than later and it will be of the 10% or more variety.

SPX Daily - 1295 to 1307 resistance area (pink). Upper black diagonal resistance just above. Divering indicators indicating this run is lacking underlying support. SPXA50 is over 400. NYMO is ready.

Friday, January 13, 2012

Open Weekend Post 01/14-15/12

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

Not much to say from STB today. Support broke and is in the process of a tight backtest (usually you want a day or two and more of a fall first). As a bear I'm concerned about the FOMC meeting, opex and earnings results this week. Friday should have been a bloodbath, but was not. You don't have JPM miss following a bad jobs report along with an S&P downgrade of the euro zone and get that small of a reaction.

The central planners IMHO are scared as shit of this next move south. It forecasts to be a really big move south and containing it will require a monumental effort. It took all of 10 seconds following the bad news Friday morning before they strutted out a Fed president and started more QE rumors (standard operating procedure there). They are guarding/protecting something.

FOMC meeting chart -

Morning Post 01/13/12 (SPX)

Welcome to the Friday the 13th edition of the morning post. That alone should make for an interesting day, but when you throw in the minis taking out support and a JPM revenue miss, things quickly become more superstitious. Can you think of a better day to start a major slide in the markets? Remember, Monday is a holiday.

STB has been patiently waiting for the minis support to crack. Since first showing you the channel back in December and the FOMC meeting chart, we've been walking this puppy up one centrally planned stair at a time. The news is not good out there on many fronts, but that had all been subdued for the most part. It was only a matter of time before something caught up with the low volume quiet news grace period that beganthe year.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Morning Post 01/12/12 (SPX)

Well, the minis got a higher high last night and as discussed here over the past two weeks the trend up into the FOMC meeting (as markets tend to do) remains intact for now. Stopping 2.5 points shy of the 1300 round level, the minis pulled back on the data this morning. Jobless claims get back to 399k (which will be revised over 400k as is the standard). Gee is that a surprise to any of you reading this? EU rates remain unchanged and they did not ease but will most likely begin printing again in February (thus the pop in the futures).

So, The jobless claims increase 25k and the markets pull back all of 7 handles? Really? That should have been a 20 point thrashing as the "recovery" takes another body blow. I'm sure our president did not like hearing that news. This also makes me think that whoever controls this number would like a new leader for this country after this next election (you have to connect all the dots).

My morning post yesterday was really the most comprehensive market position chart you will find on the web for this time. Everything in it will remain in play for at least another week if not thru the FOMC meeting and OPEX as these markets churn out this top. My Is Gold About to Collapse? post yesterday drew quite a crowd. You may want to see that one as well. It ties nicely to a potential coming collapse in equity markets.

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Afternoon Delight 1/10/11 - Postapalooza!

Because of yesterday's debt rant (Total Despair), I got a little behind on the AD links. Today you get AD extreme. I'll try to keep commentary limited. Enjoy!

Market News - 

STB has liked 1040 as an SPX target since the June top. I always appreciate others looking in that direction (and if the Fed would just get out of the way). The Cost Of Recoupling: 235 S&P Points | ZeroHedge, looking at 1050 fair value based on the EUR/USD.

Intervention? Nah, no country would just print money and dump it on the markets just to prop things up to make things look better than they really are, that's silly. Well, is it really? Bank Lending, M2 Money Supply Soar in China; Premier Wen Jiabao calls for "Measures to Boost Confidence in Stock Market"; US vs. China Money Supply - Who is Printing More? Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Is Gold About To Collapse?

Hey, goldbugs, I'm just looking at the charts. I still think gold will go over $5,000 so don't get your panties in a wad. Part of what I'm theorizing is that when the markets finally collapse all asset classes get crushed initially, then ALL the money begins to flow into physical gold and silver. Right now there is no doubt that gold is still overbought (technically) and could use a correction (the current 400 points is only a partial correction). Silver has been pummeled, so why can't gold play catch up? There are natural support levels set where China and Russia first started coming in as bigger players near 1,100 or so. Let's take a look.

First monthly (/yg) 10 years. $270 is where we start this venture. From the low to high of $1,927 that would leave the Fibonacci retracements as 38% 1284, 50% 1,095 and 62% 905. OK, let's eliminate that 905 from the discussion now, not gonna happen although that long term green support diagonal off the lows as ultimate support would make a tasty target wouldn't it (if it did that upper blue resistance diagonal would have to hold and it would hit in March of 2013 - even tastier if you like the global collapse to happen this year). Please note the MACD at extremes and about to bear cross. Also note the falling S Sto and RSI. These should not be taken lightly on a monthly chart.

Morning Post 01/11/12 (SPX) - Chartapalooza

A storm is a brewin and it is just offshore.

Incredible! The futures are actually red! I was not sure that was legal anymore, but when you are the law I guess you can do anything right? One can only assume is that the Fed is ready to let things breathe a little bit. Don't get too excited bears, the /es is still in its channel off the mid-December lows. When that support cracks, then you can begin to look for a correction that will have some merit.

Yesterday morning I tweeted /es 30m Yellow channel up - 1277 support - higher high - all the makings of a blow off top IMHO. #Surreal pic.twitter.com/eXP2ptbU. So far so good. Here is a good look at the /es 60m chart and recent channel support. The blow off top can now be seen in the rise in RSI above the negative divergence. The double divergence in MACD is a killer. All that aside, none of it matters if the yellow support diagonal does not falter.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Afternoon Delight 01/10/12 - Total Despair

What is not surreal these days? I report on varying topics nightly that are mind blowing in the sense that they can't be happening but do every day. I'm not talking about bungee cords busting or Beyonce's baby. I'm talking about things like insolvent banks running the worlds governments. Out of control governments printing and spending money like there is no problem with that. The Fed and Treasury in cahoots with Wall St. and the government to rig the equity markets to give the illusion all is well. The US government (or any for that matter) intentionally distorting economic data to give the impression that we're recovering from the recession. The US becoming a massive police state where breaking wind will be a fineable offence and they will have the detection equipment on every street corner and your DNA to prove you did it. Heck that is only in the US and I'm not going into global events.

Welcome to a centrally planned state where you no longer have any control. What is really freaking me out is that we'll most likely have Mitt as the next president. What is surreal?  The  fact that Obummer is even being considered as a candidate who has raised more money than anyone else (think about that for a minute) when Americans, 2-1, Fear Obama's Reelection. The fact that Mitt is a carbon copy of Obummer scares me the most. They all are carbon copies of each other (except Ron Paul which is why he's so scary - Oooooo). Plug-n-Play presidents that will do whatever the establishment wants when they hit the oval office is all this group of candidates are (Note: nothing related to the presidency here gets capitalized anymore). Nothing but lipstick on a new pig.

We are so, so, so screwed - 

Morning Post 01/10/12 (SPX)


You must love Central Planning. It is the best for all of us. Just embrace it and let the love flow. CP is and has always been our destiny. Did you think you would be allowed to govern yourselves forever? Did you think you were capable of doing anything productively without the central planners being in control? Seriously sheeple, you can not be left to be responsible for anything on your own. You must have a great hand to guide you. One that makes decisions for the whole and not the individual. Being an individual is soooo 1776. Please submit yourself (and your gold and guns) to your local sheriff's office this morning and embrace the future. Don't fight it. If your neighbor does not comply, please call the hotline number provided and we'll gladly address that issue.

This ends today's announcement. All praise the Central Planners!

Well, it appears risk on hit overnight on low volume while everyone was sleeping (like that is anything new?). Apparently some CP data manipulation out of Big Red (China) has the futures all in a tizzy. Some sort of trade surplus growth crap that is meant to fool those that still believe any numbers coming from any government.

Monday, January 9, 2012

Afternoon Delight 01/09/12

Big night for those in AL and LA and for the fans of college football. I hope you like low scoring defensive struggles. The total is 40 points, STB likes the under. As for a winner, you can throw a hat over them. Should be a great game with the SEC winning its 6th consecutive national championship.

Sorry bout that, after that most exhilarating day in the markets I got sidetracked. What is there to report on from the markets? Well the Merkozy meeting was a big zero. AA earnings (and the markets reaction to them) were a dud. LIZ and another downgrade brought nothing. Italy yields over 7% and consumer borrowing spiking were non events also. Even PIMCO's Elmer Fudd El-Erian: QE3 Won't Produce The Outcomes We Want did not budge the markets. Looks like the central planners have the sheeple right where they want them, on the sidelines unable to sway the markets in either direction.

Alcoa (AA) Technical Look Before Earnings

You can go read the news and the noise if you like, I just report the technicals and what they say. Remember that fundamentals are dead. They are big fat FASB, unregulated, convoluted and corrupt figures (IMHO of course).

The technical take for AA is quite bright actually looking at the daily and weekly charts below. This take is in contrast to the overall markets right now as the broader indexes are set up for near term failure. Keep this in mind if AA should have good news after the bell and you chase it. 

Daily AA - Quite the double bottom with strong buy divergences. No real patterns exist here. Price just simply violently fell into support near 9.60. The range (9-17) since the '08 fall and recovery is clear to see. 

Morning Post 01/09/12, SPX

Well two things are on deck today. First and most importantly is the Merkozy meeting that is happening right now. As most traders know these can be volatile market movers (usually due to RAMPant rumors from the FT or some other "source" leaked 10 minutes before the meeting has ended that usually end up being nothing bust a rumor).  Second is that earnings season starts today with AA leading the way. You can find a handy earnings calendar here. Next week will be huge with the financials reporting. You can expect some wild action coming soon.

If there is one thing that I believe you can look at that is a barometer of safety in the world is where is everyone holding their cash. Think about this for a second (cause all your money is in a bank). If banks are not keeping their money in their own vaults and have moved it to their central banks, then is there something very wrong with the system. Is there some sort of massive risk out there that we are not being warned about? See, "the ECB Deposit Facility usage soared to a new all time high of €464 billion, an increase of €199 billion" from EUR Rebounds From Multi Year Lows On Merkozy Meeting, Short Covering; ECB Deposits Soar To Record | ZeroHedge.

Looking at the minis this morning in a 4hr chart - First notice the 1280 level is strong resistance. Second, notice the low volume. Third, see the weakening MACD, RSI and S Sto indicators. Fourth, the nontraditional channel (yellow) I pointed out last week where the support held price up. Did the blue wedge break support and a fall is coming here or can they push it thru 1280 resistance and keep the channel intact? I think the wedge is busted. (Of course a MerKozy meeting surprise rumor can spoil the bears plans at any second.)

Friday, January 6, 2012

Open Weekend Post 01/07-08/12

You know what to do, share the love and the knowledge. Remember this is the year of involvement on STB. Everyone needs to talk up the challenges we are facing as a nation and a planet and get the word out to as many as possible.

This weekend I will focus on a man who's opinions I have come to trust and value greatly. Read about Dr. Paul Craig Roberts (PCR) here. His experience and resume are very impressive, "President Reagan appointed Dr. Roberts Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy and he was confirmed in office by the U.S. Senate. From 1975 to 1978, Dr. Roberts served on the congressional staff"

Dr. Roberts has a wonderful post I would like all of you to read. The Dismal Economic Outlook For The New Year - PaulCraigRoberts.org. Do you like the title? LOL, what else would I deliver, right? No, I am not sick, just a realist.

EUR/USD Update - Confusion?

Looking at the confusion relating to currency movements - Why anyone would want either the EUR or the USD fiat is beyond me, but they are all we got (till gold reasserts its rightful place in monetary history). So, we cover them till they implode.

For long term charts on the EUR/USD see my earlier post here.

STB has long been on the EUR/USD call of a move to 135 then 125 then 116. Right now the pair is at 127 two points from the 125 target and from the 1.2572 next major low. It is also just above diagonal support off the '02 lows near 1.24 here.

After the backtests of the rising channel off the '08 lows it has been all down hill for the EUR/USD. Now the pair is thru major support at 129 and about to test lower channel support at the 125 level. When do they fight back or does the devaluation continue? Can they fight back may be a more appropriate question? There is pretty fat positive divergence going back to September indicating that this move south is tiring.

Morning Post 01/06/11, SPX

OK, so things are not adding up. Should the Lemmings be running in or is it that all the Lemmings have leaped off the cliff? "Investors pulled an estimated $132 billion from mutual funds that invest in U.S. stocks, the fifth straight year of withdrawals for domestic funds, according to preliminary data from the Investment Company Institute, a Washington-based trade group whose numbers go back to 1984. Withdrawals reached $147 billion in 2008 when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 37 percent, including dividends." U.S. Stock Funds Have Second-Worst Year - Bloomberg

Who or what is left comprising the markets these days is quite the mystery. We know the MF Global clients are out, but their money is still in (somewhere - no one seems to be able to find a billion dollars of "lost" investor funds). We know that there are trillions of QE dollars still out there. I really have no clue who or what outside of the Central Planning cabal's tentacles is in or out of this market.

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Afternoon Delight 01/05/12 - Total Control

Well, if you are confused, don't be. I know the feeling. The problem is that you are not in touch with reality. Reality check! Reality check! You must remember that you are now living in a centrally planned environment where nothing happens without some sort of hall pass from the Fed, Treasury or Obummer. It is a lot like living in China or the USSR, you just did not see the changes as they happened quietly and conspicuously over the past few years.

My how times have changed. Dump all regulation, change the accounting rules, crank up the printers and remove the 4th, 5th and 6th amendments from the Constitution and POOF we now live in a brave new world. When did all this happen Shanky, I missed it? Well, you were not looking and I can't rehash all of that, but if you google NDAA that will be a great place to start, or you can read America's Socialism Tsunami | Conservative Outpost.

Charting Light Sweet Crude and The Coming War

I thought with the recent surge in stock prices why not take a look at the correlated move in oil moving over $103? I guess the threat of war is a catalyst across all sectors. You know, one tide raises all ships kind of thing. Maybe the world's debt and credit issues worsening are the reasons for the market's advance today (that is a topic for another post).

I would not be doing this if oil was not at a technical point that did not matter (more on this below). I'm pretty sure none of this matters with the Iran situation following the Libya disruption, but you need to see what's happening in the charts.

Adding to the "why do this post when technically nothing matters" theme, I believe that oil has become one of the most manipulated commodities on the planet making millions for the likes of JPM, GS and the oil conglomerates. Bottom line is (thinking realistically and with some sort of common sense) it makes no sense with the global economic slowdown and consumption that oil is priced anywhere near these levels. Peak oil fears? That is an argument for another post.

Morning Post 01/05/12, SPX

Well, we thought the markets would be down on credit issues out of the EU this morning and they were, till government sponsored ADP report came out blaring some BS 325k jobs surprise. You gotta do what you gotta do to protect those revenues don't cha ADP? This farce will end horrifically when the truth is finally revealed (but living in a socialist state built on lies and deception you can't count on that happening anytime soon).

The take on ADP report from ZeroHedge, "Oh, and proving the "validity" of the data is that the number was about 8 standard deviations above consensus - aka statistical noise." That can be compared with other recent data points that have been statistically off the charts meaning to STB, they are more desperate now than ever to manufacture deceive hide conceal promote the truth that this economic recovery ain't happenin.

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Afternoon Delight 01/04/12 - Obummer

The market news was really slow and market action even slower today. I guess after all the Iowa hoopla last night the only good news (not for Obummer) I could find to report today was mostly political. Congrats to my man Ron Paul for hanging in there proving he's a real contender that needs to be taken seriously no matter how or where they counted the votes.

One thing that is for sure is that this will set up to be a really strange year regardless of the Mayan Calendar or not. The election in November will top the charts most of the year. A market crash or two will happen. Record deficit spending will keep us all distracted from the real problems of the day. A few countries will default on their debt. Heck, that will all be routine stuff, for the really interesting things take a look at No Mayan Apocalypse in 2012 … But There’s Alot of Other Interesting Stuff Happening from Washington's Blog (whom STB thanks for its recent inclusion in the blogroll).

Market News -

Morning Post 01/04/12, SPX

Sorry, I'm running a bit late this morning. Slow news night, not used to that after the flurry at the end of last year. I'm sure things will return to normal soon though as The Bond King is predicting, "The financial markets and global economies are at great risk." Bill Gross Exposes "The New Paranormal" In Which "The Financial Markets And Global Economies Are At Great Risk" | ZeroHedge and when BG speaks you should listen.

That should be no surprise to STB readers. We all have done the math and know that there is no solution to the debt crisis at this point. The only solution thing they keep doing is piling on to that massive heap of fiat in hopes that the sheeple will stay in their pens and not notice that they are being robbed blind by the big banks and the crony capitalists.

Ron Paul did well last night. We need to keep supporting his cause as a true
constitutionalist that will end the Fed. This is what this country needs more now than ever. Restoring freedoms and ending the central planning cabal is most important. More of the same is all you will get with any other candidate.

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Afternoon Delight 01/03/12 - Back In The Saddle Again

Let's get the ball rolling. STB is pumped to be back doing the AD's as they are something that I actually look forward to writing each day. Something about hammering the establishment and those in the central planning cabal really invigorates me. Remember this is STB's year of involvement meaning you need to get the word out to friends and family about the truth. Don't be afraid or sheepish, now is the time to be direct and blunt. We are out of time and the more in the know (stop them from being brainwashed by the MSM) the better.

Market News - 

From the nuff said files - US Closes 2011 With Record $15.22 Trillion In Debt, Officially At 100.3% Debt/GDP, $14 Billion From Breaching Debt Ceiling | ZeroHedge. Of course in a centrally planned global economic situation nothing can go wrong no matter how big your debt is, so this is no big deal. Debt serfdom is a good thing right? Now move along and be good little sheeple.

But debt is not a problem. How could it be? Well, see for yourself what governments are facing this year in maturing debt that will have to be refinanced. "Remarkably, rolling over US debt is unlikely to be a problem. The same cannot be said for Japan. Because of demographics, pension plans will be net sellers of Japanese bonds. Unless balance of trade or tax revenues increase enough in 2012 Japan will not be able to roll this debt over at 1%. A rise to 3% would consume nearly off of Japanese revenues." Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: World’s Biggest Economies Face $7.6T Debt Led by Japan $3 trillion, U.S. $2.8 trillion; Rollover Problems in Japan and Europe.

Charting the EUR/USD

For the longest time (a bit early as I did not suspect the pop to 149 - I was looking as high as 143) I have called down to 135, 125 and finally 116 as my targets for the EUR/USD. You can plainly see the reason for the 116 call in the charts below. What may be wrong with that call is if that level gets hit and busts, the EUR is gone for good as that HnS targets 76.

Monthly - Long term 118 support with larger view of potential Head and Shoulders. Also showing LT support diagonal (pink). The really weak MACD and RSI double top in 10 and 11 signaled this recent move south.

Morning Post 01/03/12, SPX

OK, so who is the Fed bailing out this morning? This pop in the futures just can't be from some good manufacturing report out of China. The last few times this sort of move has happened it was a Fed induced move to combat a near collapse in the EU banking sector.

Don't buy the hype/head fake folks. Yeah, they may make it work for a bit leading the markets higher and granting the all is well illusion a bit more time, but the world is in a world of hurt financially and economically. You name it from the euro to the dollar, from Iran to Syria and all across the globe things are a total mess and these factors will weigh heavily sooner than later.

STB is happy to be back at the desk hammering out the first post of the new year. I won't go all Mayan Calendar on you folks just yet, but you know the doom and gloom will be preached here every day. There is no reason for optimism or "HOPE" or belief that any sort of "CHANGE" will make any difference (what has it gotten us this far?). The one prediction I guarantee 100% is that the debt load of the past 5 years combined with our (US taxpayer) bailout of the world and the corrupt, unregulated and special interest driven government that is owned and operated by the financial powers that be will lead us further into the abyss of debt serfdom.