Friday, April 30, 2010

Stalling At Mendoza Line 1, 2 Just Below

If it can crack 89 (Blue line) and then take out that 75 low it may actually get somewhere. Seeing deja vu looking at past patterns in the chart. Nice range though between 85 and 10.Possible 1 of 3 completed here.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Criminal Probe Launched Into Goldman Sachs, I can think of some other types of probes I'd like to launch into GS as well. Larger, longer and thicker ones, sans KY. What goes around should come around. Interesting timing with Greece bailout and GDP at the same time. Most anything you want to know about the problems with Greece you can find here. Gonna be a big weekend for them. Something about a Harrisburg, Pa muni default? Not confirmed and I can't find anything on it quickly. Moody's downgrades 9 Greek banks.

Economic Calendar - GDP at 8:30 (3.4%est - 3.2% actual), Chicago PMI at 9:30 (68) and Consumer Sentiment at 9:55 (71).

Earnings Calendar -

Pivot Points - Know 'em

E-minis Daily Chart - Pretty simple. the yellow lines are the giant wedge that have defined the bull corrective's run from the market lows. The green line is February support that has been busted. The blue line is March support that has been busted and is being backtested at this point. The purple line is March support line that has been busted and now retraced. The resistance at the conjunction of the backtest of the March support and the upper bull run's top line should be a formidable spot to get thru (esp given the Greece and GS issues floating around). You can see how the market struggles (an how volatility really began) with the yellow resistance line. Well, here we are again. One of the most telling things to me that a turn may be in order was the divergence from price by the RSI. Those last couple of daily candles have eaten into that one large red candle. Looks like a small doji right now at resistance, but it is early. Also notice that small horizontal blue line at the top if the chart. that is the 61.8% retracement at 1234. Minis are flat at 8:52 am.

SPX 30m - By some EWT counts a 2 corrective has possibly been completed. This would be a major turning point. If so, a 3 should be impulsive and dramatic. If nothing impulsive and dramatic happens here, it is quite possible the march north will continue. The 30m chart looks ready to turn. Any weakness and it shoudl give a sell signal today. It is a little early with RSI not hitting the top sell line yet which has me concerned as a bear. Keep an eye on this chart in the chartbook as I will update it there during the day and post it here if a sell signal comes. (I will be out between 11 and 1).  What is interesting is the 60m is sort of toppy as well. The standard is usually for a melt up and embed on the 60m, so I'm in hold my breath mode right now. Interesting point is at the black arrow at the triangle apex right now, sometimes those can be trigger points.
Wait and see mode right now. Seriously this is a point where we go north or south. Let's see what the PPT can spark today Any bears left alive and breathing out there? We'll find out today.

Good luck and have a great weekend!

UPDATE: Here is an updated SPX chart from the post I did yesterday. Notice the interaction with the various S/R lines and where we are in relation the the SPX bull corrective's top TL (Blue Dashed). Possible wedge forming (blue) that says this may only be ending A of the corrective and we get drawn out till next to know where we really are (unless it breaks north of course). If this plays out look for a fall to 1197 for B then a grind up to possibly the 1217 area for C and then for the 60 and 30m charts to set divergences. I like this call  a lot.

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Cover Your Ears Cause Here I Come

If you are some sort of sweet, kind and well mannered person that does not like four letter words, then just stop reading here for your own good and know that I am sick and tired of the fraud and manipulation. Thanks for visiting and please come back tomorrow. To those of you that decide to read on, cover your ears. This one is classic Shanky style for you old timers.

Fuck this. My monthly pop off valve has sprung, and I just can't contain it any longer. Must ... let... out... anger! Can't.. hold... any... longer. I have been very polite for a while with the language, but allow me my moment here. If you have been here for a while you know my rants. If not, you need to learn to expect these once or twice a year. Some appreciate these posts and others do not, but one thing for sure is that these posts echo the sentiment of more and more readers every time.

You mean to tell me we are on the fucking doorstep of financial Armageddon and we rally 15 points in the SPX. For what reason? What the fuck? Give me a break. The circle jerk that has Greece as the pivot man has been going for months now. The on again off again bailout is now coming to climax and it sounds like we the people will be on the hook for another fucking $7 billion (give or take) bailing out a nation that is thousands of miles away.

Thanks Barry, I mean O, let me get out my fucking checkbook. Where is it...can't locate it right now ... there it is.. check the balance... oops I have no more fucking money cause those fucking unregulated banks that are charging me +30% on my cc balance and that shut down my HELOC have drained may ass. Sorry, Shanky is tapped out. Oh and then there is that little noticed issue about how much I can withdraw from my money market (used to be called DEMAND DEPOSITS I think) but that does not matter cause I have no more fucking money to give. Oh, that's right I have children, get out the KY, I guess they might as well get used to getting screwed by the government at an early age, cause they will be the ones paying for all this shit FOR THE REST OF THEIR LIVES.

Go ahead. Set the precedent. Bail one out and you have to bail them all out (I bet this is what the German parliament discussions sound like right now). Spain, Portugal, Japan, pick a PIIG any PIIG, they are all coming. It is as plain as the nose on your face. There is no way in hell that Greece will be able to pay back 10, no 40 to 50, no more, no only 20 really we promise, now its 120 BILLION? They can't even pay back what they fucking owe right now. This is fucking S T U P I D. At that pace multiplied by P I I G S and you'll be talking about some real money. Sure, the TBTF's (mainly GS) caused some of shit to happen, but why the fuck does that make me and you responsible to cover the debt that the greed/corruption roller coaster left in it's wake? Hell, do we at least get some sort of equity interest in Greece? How bout an all expense paid cruise around the isles?

Every wrong that was done to get us into this mess is being perpetuated and further multiplied by our government. Instead of being fiscally prudent and setting the "example" they should be setting they are stoking the fire.  Kick the fucking can down the road and pull demand forward. Bail out defunct failing corporate giants and allow the backbone of America to suffer into financial starvation. Here we are again with a chance to get the patient (this time Greece) into the operating room. A chance to face the music, open up the body and start fixing the problems, but instead we are causing even more damage by not addressing the illness. This is like giving heroin (or hopium in this case) to an addict and saying it will solve all their problems. Like giving Greece 120b is gonna do any good (other than allowing the banks to make more fees).

Does our government even know what is happening here in your own country? We have a slight employment issue. We have an economy that is 70% supported by stimulus rather than the consumer. We have on the verge of bankruptcy states and cities scattered throughout the country. We have a slight issue with the RE and CRE markets. Banks and businesses are failing left and right. We have a slight issue with national debt. Shall I continue....I for one would much rather be taxed to help my own state, not one 4,000 miles away that's only connection to me is that it got screwed by an American company for profit. Sorry, but that is not my fucking problem. That one belongs to Washington and they should address the issue with the party responsible- NOT ME!

Sadly, we no longer have a voice. The government no longer represents the people. It represents the lobby and special interests that drive the machine. You and I no longer enter onto the equation. This shit is simply out of hand. The re-inflation trade of extend and pretend is extending its tentacles around the globe now. I guess we have the biggest printing press (I'm long ink and paper) and some sort of conscious since we probably caused all this mess and are afraid that they will come and start selling their treasuries (there is that demand deposit thing again) and crush us. So much for being the biggest most powerful nation on the planet. Sure, we can kick your ass, but thanks to our government for a total lack of regulation and allowing these fraudulent bubbles to exist, the world now has us by the balls. Yes, they can take our candy away.

They really are thinking about us and our best interests. Sure, they are here to be the heroes and "reform" banking so this never happens again. They are the saviors. My fing ass. They are the corrupt bastards of spin that have been pulling the wool over their constituents eyes for years serving the corporate and special interest donations (that they conveniently voted to take the cap off of). Why not throw in a HC bill in the middle of all this shit? Sure, why not. I guess those slated for reelection don't give a shit (would you want to come back to this mess?).

This is unfuckingbelieveable! This is insanity (definition .....) Over and over again. SSDD. Spend, spend, spend. Bailout, bailout, bailout. Tax, tax, tax. It will end. Oh will it end. They can continue to melt this market up on HFT algos trading with each other with funds form you and me making their billions in bonus money as log as they want. What the fuck is the SEC gonna do about it? Not a damn thing. Regulation my fucking ass. Why don't you go look in the fucking closet at the TBTF's and pull out the marked to fantasy assets and fucking end this misery. Be done with it. The banks do not have the government by the balls, it should be the other way around. Sure, the banks can fuck up the system for everyone (uh, what's new?), but the system is so fucked up who gives a shit? I will leave FNM and FRE out of the discussion this time.

This market is all they have left standing between them and total anarchy, so they MUST keep it afloat. They have the pump and dump in overdrive pulling their assets out and replacing them with your 401k funds. Yes, you will get stuck one last time dear reader. The ultimate back door job is happening right in front of your face and they think you have no idea what is going on. You think they are gonna lose a dime in all this? Hell no. You are! (Or we are because we are a nation of dipshits that are complacent and fucking lazy as all hell and we have a government that does not give a flying shit about you or me).

We will have to pay the band eventually. Sadly they have been throwing trillions of good money into a pit that we (nor our children) will never see again (well the bankers and their children will see it). The token money spent has not done any good (no matter what you hear on CNBS) unless you work for Government Motors or another (ever expanding) GSE. I wish they would just fucking end it. Now is the time. Let Greece be the token sacrifice. I apologize to the people of Greece. We are all in the same boat, and I am not singling you out, but you are at the front of the line. I'd much rather see you be part of the solution and not part of the problem. You can't pay back the debt you have now. Again, how the fuck are you gonna support another 120 BILLION? the good folks in Germany get it. They know what the hell is going on. The global house of cards is at stake right now. Right fucking now (and you wonder why I took a shot a calling a top?). We are at the event horizon (and the market goes up like all is well - shuh).

Does this make any sense? Fuck no. This is total idiocy. This is insanity. That is why I an so fucking pissed off. Fucking take your medicine and get it over with. I promise the sooner we actually start addressing the problems instead of covering them up the sooner this nightmare will end. How will it end? I'm thinking massive deflationary period that is a prolonged depression with eventual hyper-inflationary period, or we simply become the next Japan. Either way we are going to face years of prolonged pain. Gold, ha, let's talk fuel, seeds, water and ammo as the ultimate barter items. Mad Max? Not quite, but some countries (Mexico) will be there.

Many thanks to Alan, Ben and our government.

Have a good evening and thanks for letting me get that off my chest. Konichiwa bitches!

$SPX Resistance And Retracements

OK, will the market act like Jimmy Johnson in the 48 car on the last lap at Daytona and just blow thru everything like it always does, or will some form of fair and real market action take place? I don't know, call Vegas and bet on the Fed is what I would do. If you have not noticed I am feeling a little over cynical this am. Sorry bout that. These people really piss me off. The whole friggin global financial system is on the brink of disaster and they are treating the impending stick save as the second coming of Gordy Howe. Screw that. They have many more and even harder shots to stop coming. Recovery? Recovery? LOL, what are they comparing all these great numbers to? The FRIGGIN TROUGH. Enjoy the euphoria people. Coming down from the high and having to face reality really sucks. The financial giants have just begun intervention (like that is gonna do any good). Again, I apologize for my temper this am, I am positive that most of you feel the same way.LOL, just found this one from Zero Hedge. Apparently even Rosie is getting on the train with Shanky -Zero Hedge Endorses David Rosenberg's Demand To "Ban The Bailout"

Here is an $SPX 30m chart with the 61.8% fib at 1205. the resistance lines are: Green -support off the February lows, Upper Black - is top line resistance from mid March, Red -  is support line from early March, Blue Dashed is the upper bull market corrective's top trend line going back to January of '09 (that is the big one), Lower Black (near red) is the most recent support line that was busted. 

So there you have it. A nice concise snap shot of everything that is in play. That is a boat load of resistance. All moves above the blue dashed bull corrective's top line have been brief and I believe that line will act as a cap. I honestly (like a moron) do not believe any moves above this line will be sustained. Here is a larger view of the above chart. GL!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

The quiet period before the Greek announcement. A time to reflect and melt up. All is well, no problems here or in the Euro zone, please move along. Greece will be bailed out in some form or fashion I think. Germany may not participate if they have a choice. Throwing good money after bad (at least one country can see reality and has taken off the rose colored glasses). What is the point? Extend and pretend as they can not in any possible way pay back all the debt they have accumulated. As I have said before, Greece will eventually default. I believe it is a 100% guarantee. Portugal and then the global dominoes fall as this whole mess ends in a coordinated global default. The credit bubble must be popped. We all have lived 40,000 feet beyond our means and our "entitlement period" as I will call it shall come to an end.

Economic Calendar - Jobs remain pitiful (even without Easter and a few snow storms to blame it on), Natgas at 10:30, Turbo Timahhhh speaks at 2:30.

Earnings Calendar - MarketWatch has your Updates, advisories and surprises here. It is almost over thank goodness.

Pivot Points -Know 'em

Minis up almost 8 at this point. Who the hell knows why. I guess the market's near term oversold condition was spun effectively by the MSM as the bottom of a cyclical bear market and off to 15,000 we go from here. Hell, they don't care if you buy or not anyway, they control all the action. This is so friggin stupid it is beyond belief. I guess if you can't push it up during the day, then you use the futures to give it a jump start. If you are a bull I'd be wary of that gap it is gonna leave at the open short term.

SPX 30m - Got the buy signal going and the minis are confirming the NT trend change on this chart this morning. Yesterday I spoke of the 1196 to 1206 range as possible retracement points. The sellers are still in the house as the bulls are struggling (during market hours at least) to move upwards with any significance at this time. Bears need to remain patient. The upper daily BB is at 1218, the upper  60m BB is at 1219 and the e-mini upper VWAP BB is at 1217. That should form a nice barrier if price should continue to climb the wall of insanity. I will continue to play this chart up and down using SPY and SH. I am currently long a small SH position from Monday and am considering some very short term long plays here (just in case). I am not long SPY now because I actually thought the corrective had a chance to end yesterday near the close. At some point the 30 and 60m indicators will embed on the bottom instead of the top. With the daily indicators in (what appears to be) a strong move south and the weeklys turning, I kinda expected that to happen here.
This market is friggin nuts. It is manipulated. It is all they have left between them and total collapse and they can not let it go. It is my belief that the market has topped. How should you play it? Very tentatively with stops in place. As stated, I play the 30m chart up and down. I also play the 1m chart up and down. Just jumping in and buying BGZ for the long haul is not the way to do it. You must be nimble. You should be willing to play both sides. This corrective is key to my top call. Let's see how it plays out. Bottom line it it could literally break out or break down at any moment . Look at the action over the past few weeks. Sorry I can not be more specific at this time, but with Greece and the PIIGS hanging over everyone's head we really are in kind of a wait and see mode.


Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Bailout nation, congratulations we will now apparently be bailing out Greece (yeah, we were, then we were not, then we were, then were not and now were again). Yes your tax dollars via the IMF will eventually reinflate all the PIIGS to keep the debt dream alive for a few more years. You see the problems lie with the assholes in government that can't face reality. These dumb shits don't want to lose their job or take an uppercut to their egos, so the reflation trade to keep the global default train on the tracks continues. It is bull shit. Austerity measures will help, but the days of superior levels of consumption supported by fantabulous debt are over. Deflation must happen. Period. Till we get that (and it will be incredibly painful) all we are doing is extending and pretending. Goldman Gets Even More Skeptical On Greece And European Domino Theory

My brief thoughts on GS - bunch of friggin greedy ass crooks that took advantage of the system for personal gains at the expense of you and me. Screw 'em.

Economic Calendar - Petrol at 10:30, a note auction at 1 and then the FOMC at 2:15 (don't expect any surprises)

Earnings Calendar -

Pivot Points - Know 'em.

OK, here is what I am thinking. Since the top is in (LOL) we have possibly completed the first drop (what the EWTers would call wave 1) and now a 2nd wave corrective is due which will then be followed by something pretty big and should be impulsive to the downside. My target for this fall is 1153. Any retracement above 1206 and I'll start to get worried about my top call. It may want to backtest the triangle near 1202. To me, if that is right, that will be the place to add to shorts (or reenter in my case since I am in cash other than my SH position). I would expect the 30m chart to signal that pretty clearly. It that call is right, then that will be the place to add or enter shorts.

Minis are up almost 6 at this time and up 10 off the overnight lows. I guess the hope of a Greek bailout is lifting the markets with more (surprise) great earnings news from some of the big defense contractors (I'll quickly add this thought, the one call I totally blew from the Obama (AKA Barry Soreto) takeover was that defense contractors would get pummeled. Well, another campaign promise goes out the window as their lobby has proven to be stronger than our president's promises). Ahhh earnings, I was very pleased to see this post on Zero Hedge that cuts thru the crap Earnings Update: Ex-Financials There Are No Upside Revenue Surprises

SPX 30m - Looks like it has had enough and with the push up this am from the minis I expect a buy signal from this chart possibly this morning. Possibly a backtest of the wedge or something to happen near the apex point of the wedge. Pretty similar set up to the fall on April 15th here. What I have to have is for something to hold RSI at the trendline on the 60m chart to keep the trend in tact. I'll report on that later.
So pop then drop is what I am looking for. Lets see if the bulls have anything left. They struggled to lift the market at the top and the bears have shown more strength over the past couple of weeks than anytime this year. With earnings boosts sill available that will help, but with the financials under pressure that may act like an anchor.

Thanks for all the nice comments and support for my top call. the bottom line is the charts forced my hand. I wanted to call it as close as comfortably possible, so I had to pull the trigger yesterday. I regret not calling it Monday when I posted the 30m chart. With Greece the PIIGS and possibly Japan in trouble, all our own banking/regulation issues here and the excessive bullish indicators on the charts and in the face of all that the extreme bullish sentiment added to the pressure for me to pull the trigger. Bottom line it was the charts that forced my hand. I had to pick one of the tops in the 30m chart and with this particular set up I had to hit the red button.

Right or wrong, we'll continue to follow the charts and do what they say to do. If we get a higher high, so be it. You all know I play the 30m chart up and down, so I do not treally care if the market goes to 1500 or 500, I just want volatility (and a fair playing surface not dominated by HFT algos skimming on every trade supporting the GS bonus/legal fee structure).


Tuesday, April 27, 2010

OK - Welcome P3

There, I finally said it. Sorry I am a day late to that title. If I can call it within 24hrs that should be acceptable as somewhat accurate. This is the first time I have uttered those words, so be gentle if I am not right. At least this is not my second, third, fourth or fifth time doing it. I do not have confirmation on the Weekly RSI crossing its support line yet, but I expect it will soon. The only caveat is the manipulators. Do they have the balls to buy it up again? It would not surprise me. I'm tired of this crap. I want it to end. I want my country back. I want integrity restored to the financial system.

After the PPT did their best snow job this am to scare away the shorts from yesterday and last night, the market simply completed a 61.8% retracement of the fall yesterday and then uppon the S&P Downgrades Greece To Junk - Full Obituary Enclosed it decided to take a crap. Now it should be in some sort of retracement mode thru lunch I am guessing and more weakness should be on the horizon. I don't think the bulls have a leg to stand on anymore with Greece going to junk.

IMO, there is no turning back at this point. The GS testimony is a travesty of justice and everything good or moral and it will only get worse. It really is pointless as the testimony is as vague as the synthetic products they are discussing. The Goldman testimony it is the biggest load of shit ever. These pricks will not even answer simple yes/no questions to whether they had fiduciary/ethical responsibilities to their clients. This will be the death of GS I believe and if assets are not leaving the door already the managers of those funds obviously do not understand their fiduciary responsibility either. More banks to follow. I would assume that the GS rating should be junk as well. The full frontal they deserve is now in process.

What should happen is all regulation (that term used lightly) is about to be trashed and a whole new set needs to be enacted. That should not take long since they have already trashed a high majority of the existing regulation that allowed this travesty to occur. The reenactment of any sort of regulation will destroy the banks. They will show their true colors fighting the regulation as a mother lion would fight to defend her cubs (or should I say defend the marked to fantasy assets in the closet). This defense will throw further fuel on the fire burning under the TBTF's ass as the public (they friggin better) should revolt against them at this point. The banks are toast.

The top is in. Maybe enforcing regulation and the GS suit is the "external event" that will bring it all down I was looking for. Maybe Greece going to junk was it. If the top is not in, any further rally IMO is more likely to trigger more skepticism and anger than joy or satisfaction. If the top is not in then upside potential should be very limited. The White House, Fed and Treasury are now in full damage control mode.With S&P growing a set and downgrading Greece to junk and Portugal Sovereign Credit Rating Cut From A+ To A- By S&P maybe the end is in sight. Just wait till the start picking on Japan and the rest of the PIIGS. Yes, there are still RE bubbles in Canada and Australia that have not collapsed. Everything that they have reflated or contained is about to explode. I will speculate that the spineless in Washington have had their Red Bull injection and will begin ramping this regulation issue to all they can get out of it between now and November.

Welcome P3.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Divide and conquer is what I say. I think the game is over for the Fed and the TBTF's. This blow to GS is only the beginning and hopefully the rolling snowball from hell comes sweeping thru Wall St. and collapses every house of cards that is there. I hope this financial reform bill actually has some meat to it and will protect consumers/taxpayers like you and me from any further damage all while taking down the TBTF's and landing the lot in jail where they deserve to be.

Earnings Calendar - Getting into the energy group

Economic Calendar - Case-Shiller at 9. Consumer Confidence at 10 and FOMC meeting begins today.

Pivot Points - Know 'em

GS and Greece dominate the headlines. I think it all depends on how the GS sponsored idiots that run the show in Washington bring it in the meetings today. Will they prove to be the spineless paid off bastards that we all know they are or will (only since it is an election year) someone with a solid brass pair stand up and let 'em have it. If someone should prove to be worthy, expect it to be one not on the reelection hot seat or without a strong desire or career path to work at Government Sachs.

Greece and the German elections are key as well. How I did not make the easy call months ago that Greece issues would not be resolved till after the German elections is beyond me. Sorry I missed that one. Merkle ain't about to write a check to bail out the bankrupt Greece. Who are we kidding. These morons running the nation states are dumb, but when they see real trouble like Greece has, even they know that it is a hopeless cause. Expect more and increasing protests as the candy is taken away from the Greek populace and they discover they will have to work for a living.

Minis this am are down 5.25 sitting on the intersection of the March support line, the February support line and the bull corrective's top resistance line. With the 30 and 60m oversold, I would not expect straight down after the open. I would watch RSI as it approaches 50 on the daily chart. Volume is heavy for pre market action. If they crack I really think she falls to the 1125 area. As I have been saying, the markets are at a place they either take off and shoot to the moon, or they give up and correct. Given the lack of confirmation of the initial break of the upper resistance line and the inability for any continuation, the overbought diverging indicators and the excessive bullishness of everyone I can only call for a correction here that has some bite.

SPX Daily -Hard to ignore the divergences on this chart. Can RSI get thru 50 line? If not more slightly upside should be expected. If so, I think we crank it down to the 1152 range.
SPX 60m - Decisively toppish, BUT those TLs under the indicators could signal a turn and one more pop. I don;t think so, but they are worth watching.
We need to be patient and let this bad boy unfold. Don't get all giddy and super short. Yes, it looks ugly as hell and the news is horrible, but the game is still rigged. Stay nimble and let it play out. I hope this is it. I wanted to call a top yesterday, but for some reason held off. Probably cause they control it and the PPT will support it. I'll give blow by blow here if something good happens. GL!

Monday, April 26, 2010

SPX 30m - Let's See What She's Got

UPDATE: No post tonight. Lil' Shanky has a baseball game. So far so good for the bears. This 30m chart works like a charm sometimes. The 60m is now in bear mode. I should call the daily chart the big nasty, cause it is really bearish. The big question is can it now follow thru. Something tells me I am gonna regret not calling the top when I posted this chart, but with the manipulators still in full control I just can;t pull the trigger on that one. I did debate it with myself which was fun. LOL, you should have been inside my head for that discussion. I should have called it. I'm gonna regret it. I don't like to talk top, say top or think top (oops here I go again - you don't need to hear it), but I am gonna have to address this problem sooner or later. It has everything I want BUT a divergence on the weekly chart, so we have to wait. Link to my chartbook is in the blogroll. I updated most on the first two pages. Oh, and the donate button is on the right if you are so inclined.

Hey, anything is possible, right?

RUT Remains Parabolic

Nuff said there. Bottom line is the bear market upper resistance line (Red) is just above and a solid resistance zone from 750 to 765 is just above as well. With the throwover of the bull corrective's upper resistance line (blue) and now the throwover of the pink(ish) wedge on a near vertical ramp combined with those daily indicators overbought condition, a corrective should happen this week or at least a pause as it sheds the first stage the rocket boosters and prepares to launch warp drive. Who the heck knows. I just tell you what the charts say.

$DJUSFN Triangle

If that yellow TL support goes, 296 is the first target (lower BB, 50% retracement and orange support line). Of course this is most likely a short set up to execute a few more bears. I am not long anything here. What is most interesting to me about this chart is in that big pink circle. These things don't always come true, but when they do it is cool. That is an intersection of the blue bull corrective's upper resistance line, the apex of the triangle and the February support line. These things can be like magnets and cause significant market moves. So, if it breaks down (somehow below the yellow support line), could it possibly backtest at that point and then head south? Interesting thought.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Good morning. I hope you had a great weekend. Welcome to another melt-up Monday where the only thing that goes down is ..... well, I'll keep those thoughts to myself.

Economic Calendar - Nothing but auctions today. FOMC meeting begins and consumer confidence tomorrow.

Earnings Calendar - Lots on the list. No real market movers though. F before the open tomorrow.

Pivot Points - Know 'em.

Well, my last few posts have had the RUT's wedge, the minis wedge and the SPX wedge. You know what I'm thinking. Sorry, I can't turn the corner and run with the bulls just yet. I remind you that I have been on the buy side for quite some time (since April of last year I believe). I am by no means saying sell here, but am cautioning against a potential topping scenario. Do not sell the longs, but make sure you have an exit plan in place and those trailing stop orders at the right price. Sure, this market can go up forever, but it should have some sort of viable correction, and I think that it is coming sooner than later. Sure, at this time I'm pretty positive that I am the 1 in 100 that thinks down, but if you remember correctly I was also at one time that 1 in 100 that kept on betting to the upside.

SPX 30m - Give me a little RSI divergence and a MACDaddy cross and we should be headed back to the lower blue support line near 1200 soon.
SPX Daily - At the upper TL again a little over 4 points from the upper BB. The divergence in RSI I do not think can be ignored. The BB 20ma has been holding support during this phase. Keep an eye on that. I believe it has a chance to crack on this next correction (when and if that ever occurs). No comment on MACD's actions or the other embedded indicators.
Keep an eye on that 30m chart and the 60m as well. We're headed towards another perfect storm later today when the weekly, daily, 60 and 30m will all be overbought at the same time. Will there be a catalyst? I have no idea. the world seems pretty happy with the impending Iran/Israel war, the N and S Korea boat sinking, the issues with the PIIGS and the potential Greece default/bankruptcy/bailout and our unemployment/credit/everything situation. So, with all that good news, I'm not sure what could bring the market down.

GL out there!

Sunday, April 25, 2010

Eminis Tonight

Sorry that I keep bringing you these same charts, but I have to say that I think they really point to a top or some sort of correction (meaningful or not).

Daily the whole run - You clearly see the wedge I have been calling in yellow. The two correctives in sky blue and the final thrust from February in the green wedge overthrowing the bull correction's top TL right now.
Same daily chart that is drilled down to catch just this year- The extended overbought indicators tell a story, but I think the severe divergence in the RSI tells of some sort of turn coming. The overthrow of the yellow top resistance line and the extreme move from February lows needs some sort of breather/profit taking. IMO this is the suckers rally blow off top.
E-mini 60m chart drilled down - here you can see the interaction with the trendlines. The market (at least at this time) is struggling to stay above the yellow bull run upper resistance line. The backtest of the green wedge last Wednesday and the apparent one to come in the morning combined with the larger swings might mean the action is telling us something is brewing. The danger to the bears is that resistance becomes support. The danger to the bulls is the severe over bought conditions on the daily and weekly charts.
I'm not calling top or saying top, I'm saying potential worthwhile correction that could be the top though. First it has to be proven that the market can be turned to some degree. Then it has to be proven that sellers actually still exist. Then it has to be proven the bots and front runners that are supplied by and endless flow of cash from the fed can somehow be overwhelmed by the revolutionaries that want to sell. One thing is for sure, when the selling starts and with the fresh memories of the last fall, not many will want to hang around for the carnage again. Can they keep the market afloat till the election? Will one faction want the market to collapse so the other will lose power? How the story will play out no one knows, but I promise you this, when it ends it will not be pretty.

GL this week.

Friday, April 23, 2010

Weekly SPX chart

Here is the Weekly SPX chart. The gap was closed today and where I calculate C=A was met as well. That just leaves the 200ma at 1224 and the 61.8 at 1228. The A-E wedge should be complete. Wedges can throwover, and I would expect this one to as well (it is already on certain chart platforms - yes they actually differ and I use three). Given the extended overbought daily chart producing divergences that only the Fed would ignore, I have to stick with this formation as signaling the end soon. I believe that the move off of the February lows near 1050 is the blow off top suckers run (If it isn't LOL who is the joke gonna be on?).

I have preached manipulation for over a year now. I was one of the first and still believe it is in full force. As long as there is no regulation and the carry trade is alive and well, nothing will stop this market. The fraud is extensive. If it does not turn soon, the "external event" that I have been calling for will eventually occur and rip the power away from the manipulators. Can they run this sucker flat into the elections in November? Sure! They can run it back to 1500 if they want (and they will try I'm sure).

I did really well ignoring all the falls, not calling any tops and actually calling for the larger pullback to reset the lower trendline to allow the wedge more room to run (I think I was the only one to do that). The only other option if this should fail would be a channel up that I have not presented cause this is the formation I believed in. I'm sticking with it for now. If the channel should be the play, then we adjust and move on.

If this is right, look out. My basic thoughts for a fall are a quick move for the first wave to stop at the backtest of the upper bear market trendline. then the corrective (possibly into the election) and then it lets go late this year or early next cause it will take a powerful move to drive back thru the support of the bear market TL. Here is my target chart for the first leg down (1 of 1 of P3).

I am not calling a top here. We got ramp up Monday just ahead and earnings season (not to mention the rampant fraud again) still upon us. I have also always stated that the break of the trendline supporting RSI on that weekly chart would confirm the top. That looks like it is a ways away. I have also consistently called for my "external event" to rip the market from "their" control. That may happen sooner than later if this weekly chart is right. I have no idea if the bears can mount a charge. Volume is a necessity. The bots can't trade with each other forever, can they?

Thanks for your support and have a great weekend.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Minis up 4.5 after Greece formally begins begging for money and MSFT and AMZN disappoint. Gee, I thought futures would be up much more on such good news. I remember the day when an MSFT AMZN disappoint combo would have sent flairs in the air and had futures down 10. My how things have changed.

Earnings Calendar - Still busy with a few more big names to come next week. Nothing surprising before the bell Monday.

Economic Calendar - Durable goods did not budge the minis. New Home sales at 10:00.

Pivot Points -

Minis backtesting the breakdown thru the support line from the February lows and testing the upper resistance line of the large bull market corrective with overbought daily indicators. The 30m may be ready to roll over at this time or before lunch. Look for a retrace to the VWAP near 97. The lowest possible move would be to 86 with what I see as a ceiling near 1210 (at least till the standard ramp job on Monday).

SPX 60m - The dailys have created some room below the upper BB (1219) to run if they want. The problem is with the magnatisim of the upper bull market's resistance line which resides at 1207 right now and the backtest of the February support line which is at 1212 now and (yes one more) the backtest of the March support line which is at 1213 now. That leads to the big question of what happens with this triangle? Well, these act more like springboards to higher highs and since the market cant crack the daily BB 20ma, I guess that is where it may want to go. Here is the deal. If this triangle is to force the change in trend it will be THE change in trend and a major corrective will be in order. The divergences on the daily chart are impressive and if (somehow with many miracles assisting) the down trending indicators on this chart could hold here they may be enough to start the corrective.
With the VIX being thrown under the bus again, all this seriously choppy action and hte many support and resistance lines mentioned, I am speculating this is about it for the bull run. I am not sating a top is in. I am saying that technically the market should struggle to attain any serious move north from here. I would go as far to say that if the triangle were to break out, that move will produce a top within a week or two if the top is not in.

Enjoy your weekend and thanks for your views and support!

Thursday, April 22, 2010

The Morally Bankrupt vs. The Bankrupt

In this game no one wins. Eventually the morally bankrupt (government, treasury, fed, wall st. big business and the banksters) will Ponzi the system into oblivion (Madoff is a small but good example - whistle blowers called it and the SEC or regulators ignored it till it was to late), and there simply will not be anything left at the top of the third and final bubble. Three strikes and you are out. Let the melt ups march on. When the taxpayers and government are finally tapped out and we get to the point of total cannibalization, you'll know the end is near (I'm not talking about snacking on the little bank appetizers).

The government should have taken it's medicine when it had a chance in '08, but instead it gave all their most generously donating cronies a get out of jail free card (and passed a law allowing them to be even more generous). Now the financial wizards run the show and hold the government hostage. It is that simple. We all witness every day how out of hand this pump and dump has become. Bull market recovery my ass. Economy is improving, bullshit. The way I see it America has been hijacked by the likes of the Somali Pirates. We're not allowed to have any guns (re: legislation) so they climb aboard ship and game over. Now, the government is in so deep they can't do anything but assist to perpetuate the scheme. We all know if marked to fantasy accounting was eliminated this Ponzi would immediately die, so friggin do it. Grow a figgin set. Take their bullets away and take your damn medicine while there is still some life left in the patient. We want our country back! (well, what's left of it anyway). They better hurry up, the clock is ticking.

Sadly this game will end and everyone will be a loser. They perpetuated it by lulling past and current administrations into deregulating markets and allowing the crooks to run free. Sadly, we all bit, borrowed and spent till we could not spend anymore (literally). Now the government with the aid of our future tax liabilities is supporting 70% of GDP instead of the consumer (not to mention many other things). Accounting gimmicks and silicone investment products allow businesses to exist like nothing ever happened. The stock market runs along with the BD's controlling 70% of the volume and financing it with the Fed's freshly printed money (TG: no monetization, shuh right) all the while front-running every trade skimming even more off of the top.

We are standing by watching this happen? I guess the only thing we can do (other than raising hell in the streets) is to vote the current spineless bastards out and replace them with a fresh set of spineless bastards. Hell, with what is coming down the road and being a TBTF's bitch, why the hell would you want to get reelected anyway. If the O can be president with his resume (and birth certificate), I guess it may be open floor night at the comedy club for this election. Do me a favor and don't fall for any of this posturing they are doing regarding election rhetoric surrounding regulation. It is all a load of shit. If you don't think so, please start reading this post at the top again till you get it. Virtually everyone must go (except Ron Paul of course).

Denninger can out-rant me I think.President Obama: Where Are The HANDCUFFS? Rolls thru Barry's BS speech point by point and drops several choice thought along the way. I suggest you give it a look.

Lehman Bankruptcy Yields Liquidators Almost Three Quarters Of A Billion In Fees is a juicy post from ZH that will get your blood pumping. "Bloomberg quotes George Fisher of Capital Guardian: "What a travesty. They’ve taken nearly three- quarters of a billion dollars out of a company that’s bankrupt, and nobody cares." Too bad the US government will never allow any other firm to file for either Chapter 11 or 7 as this may put a dent in the administration's plan to confuse everyone that the greatest Ponzi market/economy of all time is based on anything but a constant low-volume meltup in the markets." 

Mish took some time off from bitching at the unions to deliver this wonderful and useful post How Safe Is Your Bank? Texas Ratios of 7,500+ Banks Banks with a combination of high Texas Ratio and very low capitalization are likely at extreme risk of failure. There is also this Interactive Map of Worst Banks in the U.S. by Texas Ratio, Non-Performing Assets, and Total Capital Friggin Georgia and Florida are sucking wind in a bad way.

Friday will be here tomorrow. You know what that means? Melt up Monday is only 4 days away!


$RUT Daily

I'm calling it a throwover of the wedge off the bear market lows of 342. No fibs on the first chart cause I want you to see all the trendlines. What I see is a clear A-E wedge with indicators remaining overbought as this last push up (possible blow off top) in April reversed the daily indicators and have allowed divergences to be set.
Here is the weekly chart that shows the 750 resistance and the bear market upper trendline. that intersection the week of 7/12 or 19 of the wedge top line, resistance at 750 and the bear market upper TL is an interesting point (in case it should rally an unfathomable one last time).
Drill down Daily with possible Fib targets in gray rectangle if the top is in. That divergence in RSI is really hard to ignore. Three support trendlines (peach, blue and pink).I could go out on a limb and say 5/19 at 653 at the 50% fib would be a possible target. Another would be 640 on 6,26 at the 61.8% fib.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Earth Day - Just say no to Cap n Tax. (but you should go plant something or do a nice thing for Mother Earth).

The rolling snowball that is the GS suit appears to be on a 45 degree slope, and it is growing with every revolution sucking in everything in it's path. They have opened Pandora's Box. No one knows how long or wide (global) this hill is, but it should only increase in slope as November comes.

Earnings Calendar -Just lots of them. MSFT, COF and AMZN with the most interest after the bell today.Nothing that will move the market before the bell in the morning.

Economic Calendar - Jobless claims fell for the first time in three weeks. PPI up on higher food prices. Home Sales at 10. Natgas at 10:30. Barry speaks at 11:55 (this may be a market mover).

Pivot Points - Know 'em

E-mini 60m - Yellow line is the bull market corrective's to resistance line. Green line is the move from February's support line. The blue line is support from early march. The interaction with each line is clear. What the bears need is a clean break of the two support lines. This mornings action can be seen on the far right. The futures were down, then ramped up then were promptly slammed 12 points around 4:30 this am. They gort slammed at the intersection of the backtest of the February support line and the bull corrective's to TL. The move was powerful enough to slam it all the way thru March support. The indicators on this 60m chart are weak. What the bears need is for this to be the last backtest and clear resistance to be set.

SPX Daily chart - Want to know what I think? See the green circle? It is a bit larger than I like, but We're a ways out and I hope to refine it as we get closer. Right now I am covering the 50 to 62% retracement from February lows, the support of the last low and the potential backtest of the bear market top TL all around what I see as the next cycle low date. Hopefully those cycles stay in tune with the markets. What I also want you to notice is just how small the moves are this week in relation to the bigger picture.
$CPC - movin on up. Barring a reversal I think this fall has a lot more meat to it.

If today gets busy, I'll post what I can when I can. I don't see any strength as the banksters are running for cover and they may have lost Washington as their largest supporter. Maybe the tide has turned finally back to public interest and the games are ending for Wall St.


Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Tomorow May Be A Big Day

Tomorrow may be G day (as in Greece day - or Germany day).

What spooked the market today. Well since CNBS basically never mentioned a word of the big breakdown today or why it was happening (just more solid financial reporting from "the" industry leader), so I naturally went straight to Zero Hedge. We need to pay attention to what's happening there tomorrow.

Failed Bund Auction Having Spillover Effects On Europe was what got the market this afternoon. the supposed strength of the EU had a failed auction. "Eariler today there was an auction of €3 billion 30 Year Bunds that failed to attract enough demand to cover the offer: only €2.752 billion in bids were collected, with just €2.458 was sold. This is the first failed bond auction in Germany in over a year." This following up lots of German rhetoric that Germany's Critical Main Opposition Party Says "No Greek Bailout ".

Next is the fact that the financial heads of the world are descending upon Athens as we speak. this is new. this is big and means that they are going to finally get some result and not three more months of speculation regarding the bailout of the "possibly" bankrupt country. All Shall Be Well - Goldman's Latest Perspectives On Greece "Delegations from the IMF, European Commission and ECB – a reported total of 20 people – are arriving in Athens today to start negotiations on the macro conditionality of the rescue package." You don't just airlift in 20 people like this for nothing. This sounds more like a negotiated bankruptcy than some sore of bailout conglomerate.

Then tomorrow you get the Tomorrow EuroStat Reports European Government Deficits: Expect More Pain For Greece On "Downside Surprise" a report from EuroStat may be as reliable as a report from out BLS or one of the three fine ratings agencies we can fully trust here. Bottom line is in this report there may be some fireworks as clean and never massaged EuroStat data may ignite some reality based fear about the under reported real conditions of the european economy.

Mish has Credit Default Swaps on Greece Hit Record High; IMF Calls Greece Crisis a “Wake-Up Call” on Sovereign-Debt Risks a nice post further emphasizing the problems in Greece and with some of the other PIIGS.

The trouble at home is really getting stirred up. Hell we may not have to vote anyone out of office if the GS suit expands to the true width it deserves, they may all just get kicked out. A Sober Warning To The GOP - And The Democrats is a post from Deninger that is extensive and some of his best work I have seen yet (something about sticking sticks in the eyes of the bad guys must be his thing). I highly suggest you read this well documented and concise post that covers the political fallout that may be worse than the eruption of the volcano Eslkjfglkabfglakdfbglakjfbgaa.

Tomorrow and Thursday have potential to be huge market movers as fallout here politically (the mixed blessing is that our government may become totally dysfunctional) and overseas might just shut down more than air traffic.


30m SPX - Not holding My Breath, But.......

 UPDATE - $DJUSFN - LOL watch it bounce to new highs.H&S target near 95.Sorry I did not post the H&S earlier.

The 60m and daily could be rolling over as well. Here is the 30m chart. Got the bear cross and most interesting a lower high on the indicators (not to mention price). Do we have some sort of trend change? This is yet to be confirmed and is what had (still has) me somewhat concerned is a lower high on the indicators (those are really rare these days). Any real turn is yet to be seen, but keep your heads up just in case the GS bots are down for repair or something. RSI needs to make it thru the 50 line. SPX has busted support and gotten back below the bull market top line resistance and the February top line resistance. March top line resistance held for the most part near 1210. If it begins popping I'll update this post. Let's see what transpires in the lunchtime lull. Might have to wait for any confirmation till after 1:00. Let's see what happens on a backtest of the 1206/07 level.  I am short SH, SDS and FAZ since early this morning. GL.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Remember they run the show. They control like 70% of the volume and front run almost everything. They are still in the pump and dump process trying their best to keep C above 5 so the government can get out at the best price possible. The action in $DJUSFN on the 1m charts yesterday starting around 12:30 was amazing. I believe someone wanted it to flop yet another party kept buying it up. It would gap down and up again. It was wild.

The days of ENORMOUS earnings and ripping off investors is coming to an end for Wall St and the big banks. Eventually they will enforce accounting rules and some sort of regulation. The BIG grab is on. Kinda like being caught with your hand inn the cookie jar, you know you're busted, so why not get all you can while you are there. In this case there is no knee jerk, oops, sorry, my bad, won't do it again, knew I was wrong situation. In this case it is like that super defiant 10 year old that does not give a shit and sits on the floor and just keeps downing the cookies in your face till you take the jar away.

Sadly the country is in such bad shape (cause your government let it get that way) that they can not do anything to stop the bastards from eating the cookies, cause if you stop them the sugar buzz goes away and we all crash. The catch 22 is how to get the fraudsters out of power, reenact real regulation and accounting standards and keep everything from crashing again. Sadly, that can not be done. It will end with the breakup of the TBTF's and some serious deflation and most likely a serious depression. Greece will go down soon. That ticking time bomb's fuse cant be pulled out any farther. Global tensions are growing. The crescendo is coming.

I have to ask, where the hell are all of these earnings coming from? The "cost" savings from firing half your workforce,excessive write offs from lax accounting standards, not spending a dime on anything other than necessities and producing only what is absolutely necessary all the while with several consecutive quarters of "despite lower revenues" game will come to an end. I personally think the "analysts" and businesses set the bar a little to low this quarter. Consider it a gift. The consumer is dead. Credit is gone. The government can not support 70% of GDP (what the consumer used to carry) much longer.

Earnings Calendar -Just lots of them. I guess SBUX and NFLX are the two with the most interest after the bell today.

Economic Calendar - Petrol at 10:30 and that's it.

Pivot Points - Know 'em

Bob Pissani makes me sick (possibly more than Liesman but not as much as Kneale). I actually watched CNBS after the bell yesterday and Maria B (gosh she looks like crud) just can not be stomached either. Could you imagine having to listen to that voice when you get home at night after a long day? Ouch.  

Looks like the minis will be flat after recovering some losses overnight. They are at the support of the bull market's top trendline retest.

Index comparison - OK, looks like we finally got everyone on the same page. That last run up was a little disjointed. This move has a much tighter band which you would much rather see in a manipulated run like this. There is no reason for anyone to underperfom.

SPX 30m chart - Not sure how to react to this one. With the dailys almost in full reversal mode headed back to overbought land and the 60m still climbing maybe the market wants to run some more. Hell, everyone is blowing earnings out of the water, so really, what is there to stop it? Keep an eye on that MACD for a bear cross.
GL today!

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

I Think We're Close

The fraudsters have finally been called out (well everyone but CNBS who will act the hero and turn coat to save ass I'm guessing only when the noose is firmly around the perps throat). It is beginning to get wild and woolly. Mud slinging is not only coming from the SEC, but it is now being launched across Washington as the Republicans look to counter the Democratic 3-2 SEC vote to prosecute GS. Greece, possibly this week, will most likely be proven the total disaster it really is. More banks will be brought into the fraud fray as the net widens and suits begin to pop up from here to Timbuktu.You are finally witnessing the beginning of the end.

Zero Hedge shines light on The Truth Behind The Government's Citigroup Stock Price Manipulation. TD warns, "Trade this market if you must. Just know full well that it is about as much integrity as the 3 card monte games played at the cafe of the central Moscow Politbureau. And every day that the administration is in charge makes it worse. The Dodd bill will be the nail that will seal the fate of the American decline into irrelevancy, as the cannibalism between the big financials takes on a brand new meaning, funded all the while the indebtedness of future generations of Americans. Assuming such exist in the first place." The $5.00 price is key for the institutional buyers. The volume in C is stunning, and I guess it will remain that way as long as the pump and dump is on in fill force. They are trading your retirement assets for theirs at these prices. The old bait and switch. When they are all out....

We all know they are hiding the truth. Whether under their skirt or in the closet the fraudsters do not want you to know what's real and what is not. “Who Would Not Want the Transparency [for Derivatives]? The Only Parties that Benefit from a Lack of Transparency are Wall Street Dealers.” from Washington's Blog. "The bottom line is that we are now in a system where gains are privatized and losses are socialized (and see this). The debate over CDS is really one part of the larger debate as to whether that system will continue or not.While all of the focus is on the battle over derivatives legislation, the truth is that legislation is only a small part of what is really going on." As long as they are making money from any source, no matter the source, they don't give a flip about any collateral damage and that is what has already destroyed this nation and the global financial system.

Credit Writedowns has Financial reform now being considered would not have prevented the crisis. "We, the undersigned, call on you to fulfill the responsibilities of your position by joining together in non-partisan cooperation to pass legislation that AT A MINIMUM would have prevented the crisis we just endured.  Such legislation must include ALL of the following reforms or be considered incomplete:" Give this one a glance. It gives great insight to the BS Dodd is trying to pretend is financial reform.

Not much out there to really report on today, so you get a nice short post. If you want to dig into the GS fray or more on Greece visit the Hedge. They got it all. GL!


Minis as I noted this am on the 30 and 60m (not to mention the dailys) do not look good at all. They held the top TL resistance as expected and are battling support now. 93 is the target if they let go.

On the other hand, cash does not look all that bad with the 30m just now bull crossing. The 15m is pretty toppy and the 10m is rolling over. The completed 61.8% retracement of the fall from 1214 says some sort of corrective is due.

Put the two together and is sounds like a B or 2 wave and nothing larger. I'll throw out updates. I hope everyone got that nice short pop this am in FAZ and the others. A little pop here thru lunch to set some divergences would be an added bonus.

Hell, this thing could spike to 1400, all I'm sayin in that the set up is there on the minis and the 10m is close.

Bernanke at 11:00 may move the market. GL.

Daily SPX - See the dashed blue top wedge resistance line?
See it again here? Just saying it is in play I believe at these levels. The green line is the backtest of the busted support line from the February lows. The black diagonal just above near 1208 is the march top resistance line. So this is a double backtest point with resistance above. Market does not have the ass to push it thru here I believe. If it does break thru here it would be super strong. That red diagonal is the March support line. See the divergence on the 10m RSI? Let the MACDaddy cross and we should get B or 2 or worse. It may be pulling back here to get a stronger run to get thru all that resistance I pointed out. Who the heck knows these days.
This is another look from the feb lows.Looking at this chart you see why I like a retracement to the 50 to 42 range if it would just let go. That blue dashed line is the bull correctives support line.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Minis up 5 and challenging the top trendline of the bull market corrective again. Apparently the "analysts" low balled every estimate for the Wilshire 5000 and earnings season will be nearly as successful as Goldman's trading record. What we have to determine here is if this is merely a corrective and the top is in or did we simply have another corrective to the bull run and we've still got some climbing to do. Throwing rocks at giants worked in Bible stories, but in real life throwing rocks at golliaths only pisses them off, and GS might be feeling a little testy. I might expect them to ramp their trading performance over 110% and might scalp a few more pips per trade.

Earnings Calendar - AAPL and YHOO after the close. MCD, WFC and many others in the morning.

Economic Calendar -Bernanke at 11:00

Pivot Points - Know 'em

Is this a corrective or are higher highs yet to come? Will the dailys finally take over and embed the lower time frames or was this just another rip down and the next melt up is just beginning? I think we'll have the answer this week. A 100+ point fall is no big deal. We need a ripper. I'm talking 200+ points. We need something that gets the sellers off the bench and out of the closet. Bottom line is if we get some sort of 5 wave structure here to start out with a smaller B or 2 then I believe we're still in orbit and the shorties are still SOL. If the form gets a deeper B and then we get a C and not a 3 then we'll have a chance. Will we get a smaller wedge? We have to watch form here for the tell.

Blogger is not performing this am (It really is inadequate and I need to get off my butt and go .com) so no chart, but if you look here at the daily SPX chart yet again I get my MACD bear cross with a falling hist and a S Sto bear cross, but is RSI going to spoil the party by hitting the breaks at 50? I hope not. Another fake out fall? It is possible the minis can turn here this am at resistance and with the 30m and 60m indicators possibly topping. We do not have the standard gap down ramp up open today. With AAPL after earnings this afternoon should be interesting. We have to let this corrective play out that is all I can say at this time. GL!

Monday, April 19, 2010

Ramp Job, Rim Job....Whatever

I'm not gonna address or rehash any of the GS soap opera. We all know what the bottom line is. What the heck you think I have been bitching about here since the early days of the blog? Fraud, cheating, stealing, greed, and cronyism are the buzzwords of the day. Now we have the SEC coming down on GS as the result of a narrow vote. Don't count your chickens. I'm willing to bet the SEC is deep in crisis mode bowing to Blankfein and his servants like Obama does to foreign leaders.

I'll be totally surprised if the SEC can mount any sort of credible case against GS (even with enough evidence available in the public sector to put them under the jail forever). Hell, they have most likely gone after the one part of the syndicate that is most difficult to prove that will be drawn out the longest in court and involve the smallest penalty just to blow smoke over all the 1,000 other indictable offenses. Folks, remember this is an election year. Care to place a date on some sort of trial or conviction (mid-November maybe?), and yes the vote in the SEC was 3 for the democrats and 2 for the republicans. Don't be a moron. See this act for what it is, BS. Apparently the market does not give a hoot either. Let's the games go on.

naked capitalism has Who is Next in the SEC’s Crosshairs? Some Possible (and Heretofore Overlooked) Suspects I would treat the list as a buying opportunity personally. Think of all the bad publicity these banks will get. In this market nothing works better. "Invest in us! We're doing debt offering to assist in our bonus structure cause we're insolvent. Please give generously cause all we have ever done is good things for you! Pay no attention to that stuff marked to fantasy on our balance sheets"

The one thing I saw today that made me smile was former President Clinton saying he made a mistake. “I mean, that was a mistake I made.” Oops. Sorry. My bad! Glad to see Denninger pick up the ABC news interview. In Clinton Once Again Redefining The Word "IS" you get the former head of the universe discussing his big boo boo allowing Summers, Rubin and Greenspan to deregulate the universe. You all know I linked the Frontline Brooksley Born show in many posts and if you did not watch it shame on you. To learn more about ground zero of this crisis hit the link and go read. Thank you Mr. Clinton.

Folks, something large is coming. My "external event" is not far off. I do not know what it will be, but they are still clearly in control as long as the carry trade is alive and well. I do not know if the top is in or not. I'd say I'm 85% it is in. I wanted one more higher high and I got it. I don;t think I can call for another, but a nice double top would sure be pretty.


Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

I hope everyone had a good weekend. FAZ is up a wad and the minis are down 7. C reports better than expected (surprise! LOL).Gets ignored as it should.

Earnings Calendar - IBM after the bell and GS with KO and many others in the am before the open.

Economic Calendar - Leading indicator report at 10. Auctions later then pretty quiet till Thursday.

Pivot Points - Know 'em

My thoughts are is this threat at regulation real or just another sham to get the bastards a decent shot at getting reelected in November? Real regulation will kill everything and really hamper earnings for the TBTF's, so don't count on anything that will hamper profits to much. Sadly the banks that WE saved will fight tooth and nail for the right to continue to rip us off with all they got. It is an amazing system we have.

On the minis the 30 and 60m are oversold. What we need to have is for the daily indicators to have enough momo to finally change the trend. Another thing is we need for this corrective is something sustained and lasting not another quickie.

SPX 60m - The gap down this am will hurt this chart and the 30m. Cracking that black TL and the 88ma will assist the bears as well. The big question is can it follow thru. Can we get the really big sustained rip that is required to change the trend. Hard to put a finger on a number, let it get in play and then I'll make the calls. I'll update thru the day with charts. GL!
Dollar - should reverse here, I have it backtesting broken support and overbought.
Oil - getting crushed still, might pause, but continued weakness is expected.
Natgas - basing, but looks like it is gonna get more downward pressure.
Gold - Battling it's LT support line. Possible massive H&S worth around $200.
EUR/USD - Holding support, but it should get crushed soon as it is expected Greece will finally default sooner than later.

Sunday, April 18, 2010

A Few Quick Thoughts.

Sorry, but I'm spent. Planting the crisis garden, a full baseball schedule and Little Shanky's 8th bday weekend has me wiped out. You'll get a full report around 9 in the am.

Bottom line is we need to know how the foreign markets will react. The minis opened up down 4 which is not all that inspiring. A little more than 100 points on the DOW is not enough to get me all that freaked out with the carry trade still alive and kicking. We need volume. Everything is in place, the wedge, the dialy indicators, the 60m chart, the VIX and all the glorious news. I am still holding out for my "external event". I want something big. OBTW not sure if you knew but A 6.3-magnitude earthquake struck Papua New Guinea Sunday morning, the U.S. Geological Survey reported.Uh, you get the feeling something (or someone) is trying to tell us something?

Sorry, but I have to go into wait and see mode. The one chart I will share is the weekly SPX. I got the divergence in NYMO combined with the top in SPXA50 that has done a great job in timing the last few tops. Price has lived outside the top of the weekly BB for the past 5 weeks. That doji may be the ultimate signal. F Sto has crossed. RSI hit 70 and may be rolling over. If we can get the MACD hist to turn down and that S Sto cross to confirm this week, I will call top (remember the RSI cross of the trendline is my ultimate trend change indicator). Again, lets see what happens while we're asleep. Sorry, I can not make a more definitive call at this time. GL as always.

SPX Weekly Chart Link

Saturday, April 17, 2010

Must Read

I'm still updating charts and getting my bearings. No comments at this time on the markets.

You all know I am pretty much Mr. Negative or something like that. I have been for a long time. Every now and then it is nice to hear an "expert" confirm my thoughts and theories. Well, if John Taylor of FX Concepts, the biggest currency hedge fund in the world is qualified as an expert, then I am in some pretty good company. Either he's been reading Shanky's blog or we think a lot alike. Of course I have been saying what he is for over a year now, so he may be a bit late to the game. In the meantime, this blog will remain in the shadows of the big boys plodding along, sadly I guess where it deserves to be.

Please read Step Aside Roubini - FX Concepts' John Taylor Is The New Dr. Doom: "2011 Will Be Worse Than 2008" from my favorite blog Zero Hedge.

"The cycles and very simple fundamentals are enough to predict that 2011 will be worse than 2008. The medium-term cycles tell us that there is a very high probability of a serious bout of risk aversion beginning in the next five trading days and continuing into the week of May 3. This is likely to be most apparent in Europe, but it should also impact the equity and commodity markets around the world. The stream of strong economic and corporate news, plus continued benign inflation outside of Asia should assure us of a further risk rally, starting in May and running through July and possibly into early August. This decline after the August peak should be far more serious and we believe it will be the start of a major market rout continuing into the middle of 2011, at a minimum. The deflationary recession that will accompany this market collapse, at least in the developed world, will put extreme pressure on the Eurozone and the EMU structure. The second half of this decade will witness a very different world." John Taylor.

Friday, April 16, 2010

Snap Shot SPX

Thanks for a great week of views, comments and to those that hit the donate button today. I'm relieved the charts told the truth and called this move. I'll update charts and get a post out over the weekend with some thoughts. Lil' Shank #2 turns 8 Sunday and Spencer the Cavalier King Charles Spaniel turns 1 so lot's of parties this weekend.  I feel like a party! Take care and enjoy your weekend.

3:25 Update - Not sure what to think. Looks like it should be a completed corrective having retraced to the 38% fib in a nice ABC. Way quiet with volume dead or dying. If vol picks back up it could fall some more. That red support line is ont that covers the lows going back to 03/09. Beyond that is really nothing till 1140. That would be the type of fall we need for confirmation this is a P3 event. If this is a massive H&S with right shoulder forming now that gets us near 1160 in a quick move. Possible continuation Monday, but if it does not get confirmation we'll be right back to the same old stuff. Like ODA said, the foreign markets have to react to this, let's see what happens. You have to remember this market is not real. It is manipulated. I'll do a detailed post sometime this weekend.

SPX at 61.8% of the 1176 low. There is another fib point but let's work with this one for now. See blue boxes. I would kill for a crack of 1188.55. What would a bounce here form? One nasty ass H&S on the SPX. Sorry, but not updating Stockcharts today at this time. I'm a little busy and charting in TOS only as I trade. If it slows down and we get a pop I'll swing over and do what I can.
Minis went right to the target -

ODA I assume you are a happy camper today. Volume is much better. How do we analyze the fall? 1195 was the 61.8% retracement off the 1186 low. The green line is the support line from the February lows. The blue line is support from the march 16 lows. It is back into the Pink channel and the wedge from the 667 lows. 1187 is the line in the sand. If that cracks all hell might break loose. They have set this up with many technical support levels for the algos to buy away at. It will take an incredible push to get thru. After 87 I see 73. After that it gets way down. To assume a TOP is in is very likely now.

UPDATE - With the GS fraud possibilities I would expect the market to rally at least 1000 points. You know how we love to buy bad news. (That was a joke). What is not a joke is how hard the PPT is working right now to keep this market afloat. You have to ask yourself (esp given the fraud charges) why is this market not down very significantly right now? How is this not a total run away situation? Because the FUCKING FRAUD is so FUCKING RAMPANT it is out of control. So we get earthquakes, volcanoes and now GS fraud - I think SETI may be getting signals soon at this rate, but the market will never go down. What t fing joke this market is.

Mini's possible H&S target 90. I said possible. If it can crack 1200 look out. The pink and yellow trendlines are the top of a channel and the bull corrective's top TL.

Back at the recent wedge top line. Might stop here. Dashed blue is the bull corrective top TL. See the fibs. If it gets to 98 or 97 then it may bounce. 1200 is there as well.