Monday, November 30, 2009

LOOK Into The Future(s).

DXY daily- Showing the yellow triangle and the pink bul market falling wedge. The backtest is complete. Now can it crack that upper yellow resistance line? Dollar is flat now in overnight trading which is somewhat surprising.

/ES E-mini daily (S&P futures) - Pink is bear market top line. Red is P2 bull market support line. Sky blue is nt support line. All that adds up to a lot of support esp when you throw in the 50ma helping to hold things up.

/YG Gold futures daily - Rising wedge rising out of a bull market rising wedge. Attempted breakdown with RSI where it is and the 50ma below may mean a good pullback is in order sooner than later. Tellow are the 398% fib and the yellow box is the 50 to 61% fib retracement zone.

EUR/USD daily - Yellow rising wedge rolling over into the light blue channel. Does the 50ma and the yellow support line hold? Tough call, but if you back the chart out you can see the trouble the EUR/USD is in.

EUR/JPY daily - With the green and yellow trendlines possibly going trouble may be here sooner than later.

 /NG NATGAS 30m - A possible channel and the pink line is support. 

Oil  daily - riding the 50ma with 4 support lines under it. Might be hard to bring down I'd say.

Kind of quiet out there tonight.  GL trading.

Could It Get Any Worse?

Does anyone out there get the feeling that the load on our proverbial Mule is getting a bit heavy and that our Ass is about to give out on us? It seems that the global financial system has finally reached DEFCON 9 and everyone is finally on red alert. A little hick-up in Dubai and the scramble that follows is like the roaches in the kitchen scattering when the lights come on. Anyone out there get the feeling that we are hours/days away from a real country biting the dust? How about something like AIG finally proving to be to big to save? The global financial time bomb is ticking and there will not be some super agent to come shut down the countdown at 007. We're close.

Since I am bored with the markets sideways action, and I'm not anticipating anything out of the ordinary I'll stick with the news tonight.

Zero Hedge - NY Fed Announces More Reverse Repos Coming, Spooks Stocks  - "In the coming weeks, as an extension of this work, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York plans to conduct a series of small-scale, real-value transactions with primary dealers. Like the earlier rounds of testing, this work is a matter of prudent advance planning by the Federal Reserve. It does not represent any change in the stance of monetary policy, and no inference should be drawn about the timing of any change in the stance of monetary policy in the future." OK, so let's read between the lines, nothing to see here, move along. As ZH addresses, the previous failure and the sheer mention of "value" is quite humorous. Like they think we have no clue and the potential results of this experiment mean nothing and should not be of any significance to anything. LOL, now that's funny. Benny Boy, care to tell us why you are doing these then? 

Washington's Blog - Climate: We Can All Agree On Two Things (Via a read in ZH) - "Everyone should read the leaked emails and rationally think through what they mean. But whatever one believes about climategate (the leaked emails showing that "tricks" were used to "hide the decline" in the climate data and the destruction of the original source data), we should all be able to agree that: (1) We should end the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq; and (2) We should not let the financial giants who caused the financial crisis to profit off of cap and trade schemes." There are several key news issues I have not touched on for one reason or another (mainly cause they so freaked me out and pissed me off I was not sure how to react). The leaked climate change emails should cause the conspiracy denialists to scurry into their cupboards and rethink every truth they have ever known (but they won't). This is as serious as it gets. With the Copenhagen meetings next week we all need to pay really close attention to what transpires. This may be the biggest event that lays the groundwork for the UN to govern our future and not our Constitution. I'm not kidding. This is huge.

The Market Ticker - They Aren't Really This Stupid, Are They?  Karl does a great job with this post. More laughable words from the Treasury its self. Again, conspiracy pundits stand up and take note, "Here is the real stunner. A senior person at Treasury said to a small group of us that it is now official Treasury policy to extend and pretend on real estate loans. In other words, the policy statement from last week says, if you can make an analysis that says even if the current value is less than the loan, if you can do a spreadsheet that shows if you extend for 3-5 years, and if the economy gets better, and if the loan can be amortized down to where the loan is no longer more than the value, then the lender does not have to take an impairment -write down. Loans are to be modified by rate reductions, deferral of reserves, deferral of amortization or what ever." This one is a must read so you will better understand the levels of false accounting and price manipulation all in the name of "better" balance sheets at any cost. And you wonder why the market keeps going up? Sadly, even with these tricks IMO the market still fails. How sad is that?

Mish -New Record Low Yield On Two Year Treasuries; Is This The Start Of A Dollar Rally?  - This is some real news relating to marker prices you need to note. "Given the US markets were closed yesterday, I have the same question floating in my mind as a day ago, wondering if this is another one day wonder rally in the dollar (and another one day wonder selloff in equities) or if this is the start of a long awaited correction in both the dollar and equities." I have been looking for this dislocation and have mentioned these actions several times in various posts over the past weeks.Keep an eye on this development.

Zero Hedge - Is Gold The New DXY Levered Intraday Speculative Bet?- Related to the above post from Mish, ZH wonders if the dollar has a new bitch?

The Pragmatic Capitalist - 5 REASONS TO EXPECT A NEAR-TERM SELL-OFF - "Strategists at Credit Suisse are currently expecting a near-term equity sell-off, but are not yet concerned about the downturn evolving into a larger bear market decline.  Why have they turned a bit more cautious?  A series of psychological, fundamental and technical events:" It is worth a look, but nothing new to the savvy technicians out there. For those of you wondering what these "super analysts" are worth and why we listen, your guess is as good as mine.

Times are getting testy. As my regular readers know, I do not expect anything bad to happen between now and Xmas. IMO they will not do anything to disrupt the non credit card wielding consumers at this time. After Xmas is over, all bets are off. On the other hand, if some EU country should decide to go bump in the middle of the night (as monsters do), chaos should ensue and there is nothing the PPT will be able to do to control the market (except shut it down as it almost did with Rule 48 last week). The boogey man is real and he's lurking (and I'm not talking about some horrifying disco king from the late 70's). It will happen overnight while you are sleeping (for Xmas sake I should have called him the Grinch). We may all wake up one morning to a closed market and then a sweet 1,000 pt plunge (remember I'm calling for at least two market closures on this next trip down.

GL out there and happy holidays.

Morning Post

The minis are battling the upper bearmarket trendline and the lower P2 bullmarket support line. that battle has to end this week. Futures all over the place. Daily indicators say fall, but they said fall all last week as well. Without the PPT we'd be below 1,000 SPX IMHO. Not sure how long they can prop it up. If it can let go the fall will be really good.

Daily SPX - Stretching the blue box this topping process has now lasted 6 days longer than any other top on this process. Are the bulls toast and have nothing left to get price past this point? Indicators look bad as the divergences are screaming weakness in price at these levels.

/ES daily - This charts is to show you the rising blue wedge (P2 - bull market) and the gray falling terndline (Bear market top line). Since the intersect on 12/08 something has to give here as these two heavyweight trendlines battle it out. One ould tend to think this intersection is a perfect place for a reversal as the two bearish patterns converge. Throw in a few divergences and bingo, the situation for the perfect storm exists.

DXY daily - Pink falling wedge is the inverse of the blue P2 wedge in the minis above. The green trendline seems to be the main cog that is keeping the dollar from running (other than the PPT of course). The daily spikes up seem to begetting bigger indicating fear to me. There may be a really huge one soon.Those divergences to price combined with the inverse ones on the minis really screams reversal soon.

I'm thinking neutral to down this week. The top is most likely in unless we get the super low volume drive like we got last year during the holidays. There is a lot to digest with Dubai and several other newsworthy items out there right now. GL out there and enjoy the holiday season.

Sunday, November 29, 2009

LOOK Into The Future(s).

I hope everyone had a great holiday weekend. I'm toast, so much for having fun putting up all the Xmas stuff. More like a battle royal around my home. Well, it is almost over and I can commence to enjoy the season.

No Dubai surprises to look forward to in the am, but there are still 12 hours till the opening bell. Amazing how that was shaken off like a bad tackle. That is just a little taste of what is to come. If they are having CRE problems, just wait for ours to hit. It is only a matter of time. I still don't think they will let anything happen to the market (that they can control) till Xmas shopping season is done.

E mini 60m - Looking back on a 60m thru Thursday. ED down and a rising wedge up. Not much change from the close Friday. RSI is high and the 61.8% retrace is met.

DXY daily - Looking at the descending triangle (yellow). The only hick-up is the throwunder at the yellow circle. Looks to be nearing an end of the consolidation period. That top trendline is pretty solid.

Gold - /YG daily - I stretched it back this time so you can see the rising wedge and the possible throw over. Yellow box is the retracement zone and the yellow line is the 38% retrace. Looks like 1085 will be a good target soon if not worse. They were surprisingly dumping gold as well Friday morning which should be noted.

Natgas daily - RSI is toppy and resistance is near. I'd be cautious if I were long here. I do NOT trust any counts on this one at all.

Oil - /CL daily - backed this one out as well. Yellow channel. pink channel and red support line. Gobs of support plus the 50ma. Yellow box is the retracement zone and thick yellow line is the 38% retrace.

EUR/JPY daily - broke green TL handily, but struggled to close under hte lower yellow wedge support. This thing almost puked all over the place Friday. Sign of things to come?

EUR/USD daily - Just riding the lower yellow trendline and the 50ma all the way up. I think the blue channel is more in play now than the yellow, but we'll have to see about that. If the 50ma goes this one will tank to the gray box.

Have a good night and GL this week. Happy holidays.

Friday, November 27, 2009

E-minis Now

/ES 60m - Look out, approaching 68% retracement and the 50ma. Might bang it's head here. This is possibly a good spot to consider adding shorts IMO. Keep the stops tight if you do.

DXY 60m - Has a little more work to do than SPX to reach the retracement and 50ma.

Morning Post

OK - So Dubai has some credit issues, who doesn't these days? Looking at the minis it looks like a impulsive 1 down has been completed and a 2 of some sort has been started. Mnis are only off 28 or so. LOL, this thin is gonna puke all over its self one day and soooo many don't realize it.

Believe it or not I don't think this was manufactured or timed in any specific manner. Yes, Conspiracy Boy Shanky thinks this was a non planned or timed event. Maybe it was, but I believe the big bombs fall over New Years. IMHO they do not want anything to disrupt the holiday season and the "EXTERNAL EVENT" that was out of "THEIR" control is just one example of what I have been calling for to rip the market from :their" grasp. Let's see how the PPT reacts to this move. I'm glad it happened today and that I have not touched a chart, cause that move woould have screwed up a lot of work. I plan on having most everything updated by Monday in the chartbook. I tust you all had a great Thanksgiving and I wish you all a wonderful holiday season.

Minis from the top 60m - Looks like an impulsive 1 to me. Hard not to believe a top is set now. New lower low following lower high. Look for a 3rd wave to get it thru 1026.

DXY daily - Yet another massive spike up. I mentioned hopw the other day the market did not correspond with the big spike down, but it sho is with this spike up. If the yellow trendline goes look out.

This is really screwing up my relaxing morning, I'll be adding shorts this am I believe on the first corrective. I hate to swing trade in situations like this, but they will be small with liberal stops.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Should We Be Thankful?

OK, Turkey Day post, thus language and bashing minimized.

Darn right we should be thankful! We have so much to be thankful for, but not for those friggin assholes in Washington that are constantly putting us in wars we have no business fighting OR for bailing out all the financial institutions that deserve to rot in hell and get pissed on daily till eternity OR for not regulating a damn thing allowing all of this crap to happen in the name of greed and power OR for allowing the Constitution to become nothing more than a distant memory of what once governed a great respectable nation. Not for those friggin assholes at the Fed who have allowed Greenspan's underhanded schemes to perpetuate into the greatest financial meltdown in history for the benefit of corporations and the elite. Not for those friggin assholes on Wall Street that control all the trading and "sophisticated" investments that have systematically raped every city, state, pension fund, 401(k) and your personal investment accounts for their benefit without any regard for any form of greater good.

Nah, we need to be thankful that we are Americans and have the great pleasure to live in a democracy that allows us freedoms that very few nations exhibit. You see, you still live in the greatest, richest, most powerful nation on earth. We need to be thankful for the many that fought and died for the right for us to be free. We need to be thankful for the select few brilliant men that risked their lives and left their homeland to come here and set up a nation governed by a few simple but brilliant rules. We need to be thankful to the generations before us that worked to build this country and make it great. We need to be thankful for the right to worship without persecution. There are so many core things that are so good about us and our nation.

Here's the problem. We have had it so good for so long and that has led to a few bad apples that wanted to cheat the system for their benefit. These few bad apples first set up the Fed, then they began manipulating gold prices, then oil prices, then the constitution, then presidents got involved and then it was out of control and today this country is a total friggin mess. It is broken.

Where were we, the citizens of this once great nation while our country was being destroyed? We were working along and living the good life without any worries ( that is if you were willing to work hard and took advantage of free education and an unbelievably ample source of good work - to those that were allowed to sit home and had 15 children and took advantage of the system I have little if any sympathy). It was near impossible not to succeed in America. They spoon fed us everything and lulled us to sleep. Think of a magic trick.Sleight of hand has been used to distract us from what was really going on. The richer we got the richer they got. It was great, till we all got too greedy. We took our eyes off of the ball and placed implicit (yet ignorant) trust in the government to "govern", and they IMHO did nothing but dole. They doled out favors to corporations and special interests for their personal gain forsaking the better good of the people and the republic.

So can the mess we are in now be fixed? There is only one way and it will involve great pain. You first must realize that as a nation we are bankrupt and have a dollar that is virtually worthless. Next you must realize that they have been destroying the very document that was meant to protect us from them, The Constitution of the United States Of America. A restoration of the Constitution, an overhaul for the federal government and abolishment of the Fed are all we need to do (for starters at least). It should be that simple.

"The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people, it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government." Patrick Henry - We were given this great document to respect and defend and "we the people" allowed it to be basically raped and pillaged. Power needs to be restored to the people. We must reclaim our nation. The fight is at hand. It will be here soon enough and this next election year should be one for the story books. The first step you can take is get involved more than ever and elect the right representatives. EVERYONE must vote and replace the whole lot (keep Ron Paul and a few others). "We must all hang together, or, assuredly, we shall all hang separately."  Benjamin Franklin

"An unlimited power to tax involves, necessarily, a power to destroy; because there is a limit beyond which no institution and no property can bear taxation." John Marshall  - Folks we have reached this limit. We are at the end of the rope. This Thanksgiving, please remember your country and be thankful for the founding fathers, the pilgrims, the soldiers and the generations before us that gave us all the wealth and prosperity we have today and then ask yourself what your role is in retaining these freedoms. What will our generation's part in the history of this great nation be? Will we be the ones that failed or will we be the ones that turned the tides of socialism and restored this democracy to its rightful owners? We should be thankful for the right to protest and fight for our rights, cause those rights will be tested in the near future.

I'm thankful that I have a great family, wonderful wife and children, my health, God, my pets and many other things. I am also thankful for my readers and this platform where we can share ideas and speak our minds.

God bless and have a great Thanksgiving and thank you for supporting this blog.

Links to read -

Spirit of America Liberty Quotes 

Thanksgiving - wiki  


Holy Chit Maen

Nice to wake up to a crashing dollar the day before Thanksgiving. My 74.50 target has now been achieved. The usual corresponding move in the minis is there but it is very muted compared to a normal swing like this which is somewhat puzzling. Is this a hint at some dislocation?

DXY daily -  Remember the triangle from yesterday? Bingo breakdown and it just so happens at the apex point of the larger falling wedge (pink). That is over a $1 fall this week. Normally that would have produces massive moves in the minis, but it did not.

/ES 60m - Just an absolute mess the past couple of weeks as the minis struggle to go anywhere. The normal reaction to a fall in the dollar (super spike to new stratospheric highs) is very muted this morning which has me very curious as tot his topping action. Is tha some sort of really ugly H&S pattern or will equities catch up to the falling dollar?

/NG 60m - Is the spike from yesterday fading? As long as that 65m RSI holds she's got the possibility of running. I would not rule out a backtest of that yellow trendline. If the dollar is falling then the markets should be running, so NG may follow, but there are no guarantees to that. Keep your stops tight.

/YG 60m - The recent haywire run up in gold is something. Can you say FEAR? Pay no attention to the gap as there are bigger gaps below and a lot of them. It is cracking the upper resistance line (pink wedge) which is usually a blow off move. Might need a breather soon (but may not). Technical support at 1,000 is very firm.

The pretty dramatic drop in the dollar last night and the lacking corresponding move in the minis is something to note. Usually the inverse reaction would have been significant, but this one is somewhat muted. The super choppy market action the last couple of weeks have been a battle between the bulls and bears as the dollar was bottoming (or at least some thought it was). So the dollar breaks to new lows, but the minis don't follow the day before the Thanksgiving holiday. I just think that is interesting.

GL out there. Happy Thanksgiving.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

E Minis Now

Channeling - Is it gonna crack? Is it a real ugly H&S? Is this the top of the right shoulder that K has been pointing to? Putting in a big red candle tru the channel line and headed towards that lower trendline now.

Morning Post

Short post this morning - I'll just say look for am impending breakout or breakdown of the dollar. Tony C once told me the descending triangle was not a formation for a reversal. I proved him wrong then and there is a chance it will break up here as well. Then again, most are anticipating a continuation move south. To argue against the continuation at this time, the bottoming of a 5 wave formation, the oversold indicators, the break and back test of the LT down trend line (pink) and this formation is different of any corrective since the top. To argue for more downside it is simple, Helicopter Ben and the manipulation all in the name of "saving the country" (I mean Wall Street riches).

It is quite possible this is the E run down of the A-E formation and the bottom could happen this week. The formation ends by December 14th.This all assists in pointing to a possible top of P2 here or very soon.

DXY 60m long term  -

 DXY short term - see yellow triangle.

Monday, November 23, 2009

E-minis Now (2)

Just in case you were wondering all along how accurate the trendlines I'm following are ....I have not moved them in months. Not one adjustment. Blue is the upper P2 bull market top line. Gray is the Bear market top trendline. Pink is the old gap from 1007 to 1009. Notice the big spike thru the gray line and the stop at the blue line and now the (former) gap support is holding.

E-minis Now

E-mini 60m - BIG spike thru the gray upper bear market trendline headed towards former gap resistance (pink) and then the upper P2 wedge line (blue). Indicators overbought here.

The dailys are whipsawing with RSI holding the 50 line. Friday RSI destroyed its set divergence, so back to the drawing board on that set up.

I'm searching for some better charts to show the spot we are in. the 60m SPX chart in the morning post might be the best one. Then the DXY chart gunning for support. 

Morning Post

Minis up 10. Nothing should surprise you anymore.

From Bloomberg - Stocks, Commodities Gain on Growth Outlook; Dollar, Yen Decline  "Stocks rose around the world, commodities advanced and the dollar and the yen fell on signs central banks will keep interest rates near record lows to underpin the global economic recovery"

SPX daily - I'm breaking this chart back out in honor of the 10 point rise in the minis this morning and their sheer disobedience of the overbought indicators to continue their stratospheric rise to infinity and beyond. Just in case the dailys do decide to embed (which they could). The big question is does the dollar hold support.

SPX 60m - Indicators ready to rise on this chart. One would think they would embed down here while the overbought dailys come down. At this point I'm assuming the wedge support is valid and the higher low is set. Some are calling this 2 of 1 of 1. I'm still not sure. This is either and A or a 1. Bottom line is we're headed up this morning and most likely for the rest of this low volume week.

/ES 60m - OK, is it a large diagonal (upper dashed blue line) or is this some sort of A or 1 up. Sorry, I'm not going to guess on the count, but I'm leaning towards a 1 of the final wave to the top (if 1113 was not the top).

DXY 60m - Crushing thru two potential wedge lines headed towards support and the green lower diagonal line.

See EUR/JPY, Gold, NATGAS and EUR/USD from last night's post. 

Have a great holiday week.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

LOOK Into The Future(s).

/ES 60m - Minis are up 3.50 at this time (8:22p est). Looks like a completed 5 wave move down and a break up above the upper trendline (sky blue) after completing a 76% retracement of the last wave up. Most are counting this as 1 of 1 of P3 and we are beginning 2 up. I'm not all that sure about that, but I'm not discounting it. 

DXY 60m - Almost completed a 76% retracement of the last move just like the minis. Looks like a good move south coming is possible if the backtest of the Green wedge gives way. Testing the yellow dashed trendline with the sky blue rising wedge support just below.

/CL Lt Sweet Crude daily - Channeling up and now channeling over (pink). The green trendline catches a lot of common tops and bottoms. Red lines are major support. The yellow line is the 38% retracement and the yellow box is the retracement zone (50 to 61%).

/NG daily - Looks like a possible break of the downtrend line afterstalling at a 38% retracement.

/YG Mini gold Futures 60m - BIG GAP UP to the top wedge line (gray rectangle).

EUR/JPY daily - Testing lower support while wedging sideways. If green support gives way it should fall all the way to the lower wedge support.

EUR/USD daily - Riding lower channel support line (yellow channel) being held down buy resistance (upper red). The 50% line of the blue channel is providing support here as well. We'll know for sure soon if the blue channel has taken over or not.

You may want to read this - Bills Yielding Zero as Stocks Soar Make Bernanke’s 1938 Moment - from Bloomberg. 
"For the first time in seven decades, Treasury bills are paying no interest while stocks continue to appreciate -- a divergence in U.S. financial markets that might be perilous if Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke didn’t know all about 1938.
That’s when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 25 percent even as bill rates tumbled to 0.05 percent from 0.45 percent. As 1939 began, stocks began a three-year, 34 percent decline after the Fed increase borrowing costs prematurely to stymie inflation that never materialized.  Sounds like we know the playbook he is using.

GL trading this holiday week. I'm not sure of anything other than continued low volume and a possible push higher. I am a little leery of some sort of surprise announcement during the slower holiday weeks.

TNX And The USD - Big Question - Big Deal?

So, which way does the dollar go? Cycle low to new highs or does it inversely react to TNX and plummet?

TNX monthly chart -  TNX fib cycle lows are the blue lines and boxes. It appears to want to retrace to it's top market trendline every 5 to 6 years (black arrows). The black lines and boxes are the dollar fib cycles.

So we have an enormous conundrum. Dollar cycle low combined with TNX cycle low. There is somewhat of an implied inverse relationship (given historical trend data on this chart). I'm voting that the TNX trend continues and that it retraces to its top trendline sometime near 2012 or 2013 and possibly takes out that top trendline. So, What will the dollar do? Cycle low to high or if the inverse move with TNX holds, it crumbles. Tough spot if you ask me.

Given the potential for inflation (shuh, like that is not going to happen) I'd appreciate your insight on the potential up/down scenario I have presented. 

Friday, November 20, 2009

Weekend Video - Lou Dobbs And Jon Stewart

An pretty darn good discussion between Jon Stuart and Lou Dobbs? I thought so. No screaming or shouting or talking over each other. No in your face zealot outspoken righteousness. A simple well presented discussion by two informed people with different views of government and the state of the country. From why CNN asked Lou to leave (controlled media) to their debate on HC and other issues are all well worth a listen.

I would appreciate it if you would watch these vids. I believe there are things we can learn from both sides. I think there are ways we can learn from how they discuss the issues that we can use on a daily basis to present our opinions to others. I will not comment or voice any personal opinions till the comments start rolling in (but my readers can guess whose side I support more). 

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart
Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Exclusive - Lou Dobbs Extended Interview Pt. 1

Daily Show
Full Episodes

Political Humor
Health Care Crisis

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart
Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Exclusive - Lou Dobbs Extended Interview Pt. 2

Daily Show
Full Episodes

Political Humor
Health Care Crisis

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart
Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Exclusive - Lou Dobbs Extended Interview Pt. 3

Daily Show
Full Episodes

Political Humor
Health Care Crisis

I got the clips from this post Stewart to Dobbs: Your views are ‘abhorrent, wrong, but consistent’. 

Morning Post (2) - The DOLLAR

UPDATE - I totally changed this post. 

OK, second grade Thanksgiving play is in the books and I will not get the pleasure of seeing another one of those for a long time. This is a time of year for reflection and I imagine you will get some passionate posts out of me as we have a lot to be thankful for, but unfortunately we need more prayers now more than anything.

First lets be thankful for the PPT! ICE Cancels DXY Trades After "Impossible" Action Moves Index 9% Higher, $ Plunge Enforcement Team Arrives At Crime Scene  Leave it to our pals at Zero Hedge to get he mornings scoop on the action. "The dollar "plunge enforcement team" has been promptly woken up from its Larry Summerseqsue narcolpetic slumber and will rectify any and all attempts at a returns to fair market value." Please read the post as this sort of action directly impacts your trading day (and future). To those of you that wonder why I am on the manipulation train and can't call a top and constantly refer to the fact that "they" can not let the market fall yet, consider this exhibit 1,250,235 of the reasons I think along such lines. At this juncture of the crisis, I would not take this story lightly and use it to read into possible actions to come. I ask myself, "Did someone 'in the know' make a play that was premature trying to front run something?"

DXY daily - OK, let's back up a little and get the 1,000 foot view. The reason I'm showing this is the pink and green trendlines. Pay attention to these major trendlines as they work thru the next two charts.

DXY daily - See the pink and green trendlines? See the resistance (pink) and then the LAUNCH to the yellow, resistance (red vertical) and green? 

DXY daily - See the trendlines? Is the yellow falling wedge still in play with this being the D touch and down for E?

By no means should you consider the lower pink trendline out of play.

I focus on the dollar so much because it is driving everything IMO. A weak dollar cures a lot of ills. As you knnow I pay attention to a lot of things, but this is the leader of all markets right now. More to come today. 

Have a good one and GL out there.

Morning Post

No Morning Post today - 2nd grade play takes over. I'll get something up when I hit the desk around 9:45.

Major spike in the dollar - compare it to the chart from last night. Minis down 9 right now. 

GL - See you in a little bit.

Thursday, November 19, 2009

LOOK Into The Future(s).

Charts are from 11:20 est.

/NG daily - So, you tell me which gap it is after? The yellow box is the fib retracement for this last climb.

DXY 60m - She's got a spike! I'll get interested when that upper green TL goes down.Remember that gap analysis I spoke of today?

/YG - Mini gold 60m - Is that a H&S forming with a 1111 target? If not the retracement zone is the yellow box and the 38% retracement is 1104.You can see the set up for the breakdown I called, now can it get worse?

EUR/USD daily - Nice channel and riding a support line and at resistance. You see the fib retracement box just under support at 1.38. Other support at 1.43. This is an interesting set up.

EUR/JPY daily - Will the green line hold or will the wedge support be in play?

Nothing happening with the e-minis. Down 1.25.