Friday, October 30, 2009

Happy Halloween!

I'll have to update (gladly for once) a whole bunch of charts and get a game plan together. For those of you that missed Kenny's day today, go read the thread. It was sensational all day. UGA v FL world's largest outdoor cocktail party this weekend. I think the dawgs have a chance.

Have a happy and safe halloween!

OK - Just one Spooky chart

Monthly SPX - RSI could not get to the 50 line and is reversing and price closed below the 20ma. See that lower black wedge support line? Spoooooky isn't it?


I'm gonna need a bigger chart.

DXY All Over The Place

DXY today

And then this


Daily long term - See that pink line? If it goes so does the market IMO.

Daily short term - big gap below and battle with pink trendline.

DXY Weekly - Just look at the indicators.

Currencies Post

See the bottom weekly chart for the final answer.

EUR/JPY Daily- wedging with big support. Indicators look like they will drive to the bottom and the coinciding bounce looks very probable.

DXY 60m - Possible inverse H&S leading to a breakout?

EUR/USD long term wedge

EUR/USD 60m - See the wedge and lower support. S Sto not bottomed quite yet, MACD does not look good and RSI still headed south.

My Weekly dollar chart - NO DIVERGENCE IN RSI.

GL Trading.

Morning Post

Slightly down then up. Tough call for how much up as we are in the battle of P2 or P3 now. I do expect then to fight for a positive close today. Have a great Halloween!

SPX 60m - 1073 is the upper BB and the 50ma and in the retracement zone for the fall. That is where I expect this pop to stop (after a brief correction this am).

/ES - 15m - ED down. See the upper blue trendline. that is the market P2 top trenline. Expect it to come into play. The red resistance line is the old low from 10/13 at 1063. You can see it fighting the upper trendline.

SPX weekly - The most important chart - I'll do a more detailed analysis on why I think this char shows and why we might have a pullback and then one more run up. Hint - See the RSI and the red wedge.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Lou Dobbs Gets It Right

Please give this a listen. It is time to ask questions.

"We're in a battle for the soul of this nation."

Morning Post

Be ready. It is coming. The fall will be severe and quicker than most think. Remember I am calling for two market closures in P3. Let's get this top out of the way first.

I have to hang on to the fact that this still may be P2 (are there any 4 of P1ers still out there LOL). I am 75% that the top is in and the count is for P3, but I'm still not going to put anything past the manipulators. So my primary count is somewhere in 1 of P3. I have been calling for a truncated 5th wave, so the count may get very difficult up here. This next move up may be 1 of 5 and not 2 of 1 of 3. Do you remember me discussing the confusion that would arise at this point?

Its POMO day! Employment better (cough - ho-hum another 500k people on the street), GDP not near what GS said (cough, cough), XOM not all that and a bag of chips.

EUR/USD spiked big on the GDP news.

EUR/JPY Spiked on the news.

DXY tanked on the news.

/ES broke the upper trendline on the news and are 9 points above the 1037 low set yesterday.

SPX 60m - No divergence on RSI (see pink lines). Smoked the lower wedgeline and pegged the trendline. It was when it had the momo to get thru the seconf support (barely) that I became totally surprised. I went long at that trendline, and I got stopped out at BE. I was calling for 1051 SPX low with first alt of lower BB and then the 38% retracement for alt 3. The strength of that fall was a sign of things to come.

SPX Daily - No buy signal yet. S Sto just ain't there. It is close. While my entry may prove to have been good enough yesterday, I lost patience at the 1051 point and went for the "perfect call" - lol what a dumb ass I can be sometimes - no harm no foul as I got stopped out at BE.

/ES daily - they finally made their lower trendline. I said at K's yesterday I would get long when the RSI on the daily /ES turned (look at the last two cases). So, I'll be long again sometime today. Note - I would be BE on my entry from 1047 yesterday right now.

How close did we come to total disaster yesterday. See my Turn or Bust post below. One day not to long from now that chart will not bounce and when they let go so will the market. This will occur in 3 of 1 of P3. That is when we will know for sure that trouble is here to stay.

As for today. No divergences yet on the 60m RSI nor do the indicators on the daily say buy yet. I expect this to reverse today but more downside is still possible. The fall is now nearing the upper range of average length, duration is about right, lower trendline support, retracements are satisfied, all that and the trend is for bottoms to take 2 to three days, so I say be patient and look for the turn soon.

How big a pop? Tough call I have not drawn a fib for it yet (maybe I should now). The form of this pop - if it is a 5 were still in P2. If it is a 3 then this is P3. Since I am expecting a truncated 5 of C and since this could be a 2, then I'm not expecting new highs and it may be muted.

GL today.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

So Much For Support And Trendlines

Well, my 1051 target got chewed up and spit out surpassing even my wildest dreams. Thanks goodness for alternate targets. Will someone tell me where all the bulls went? Are the bears coming out of hibernation? Are the HFT's and the Fed allowing the plummet? Did the GDP miss speculation/revision from GS spook the market that bad?

Bloomberg says in U.S. Stocks Retreat, Extending Global Drop, on Economy Concern that, "U.S. stocks fell, extending a global slump, as an unexpected decrease in new-home sales added to concern the seven-month rally in equities outpaced prospects for economic growth. The dollar rose against most major currencies and Treasuries gained, while oil and metals fell." I don't buy some of that as we've been IGNORING bad news for MONTHS now. Why all of a sudden does the market not just shrug off this news? Smells fishy to me. (dollar short squeeze, end of POMO or these among other possible set up options by "them"?)

I'm still not conceding the top as the lies and manipulation (although unfunded for now) will continue. I'm like 75% the top is in. More on this in the am.

No witty comments today, not feeling it at all as reality sets in and the future is simply bleak. P3 was fun to look forward to and to bitch about. Now that it is here (or just around the corner), the gut check for America is upon us. Just check out these headlines and links. (Sorry - a bunch from ZH as they appear to be the last bastion of truth on the planet.)

Multi-Year Stock Market Top Could Be In

“Those earnings are not the achievement of risk-takers. These are gifts, hidden gifts, from the government.”

September New Home Sales Drop 3.6% From Up 1% Previously, Miss Rosy Expectations

The Collapse Of The Muni Bond Market
(This has been a huge concern of mine and the implications for many can not be understated))

Ravitch Says States Face Total Deficits of $500 Billion in 2011

Senate Said to Revise Plan to Extend, Expand Homebuyer Credit (You can expect a lot of last ditch efforts at this time as they begin throwing everything they have left at the problem - problem is they have launched the nukes and hard core ammo and unfortunately missed the broad side of the barn (or they got sucked into the black hole of bankster fraud).

Deal Reached on Bank Crackdown (via Denninger) Sticking with the "better late than never" theme from above - throwing more shit at the fan in a last ditch effort. I would not be caught dead owning a bank stock (any stock really right now).

Report: The WaMu "Bank Run" Rumors were True Folks, EVERY bank, well OK, 98% are insolvent I'm speculating.

New and Existing Home Sales: The Distressing Gap

Reflation Trade Shifting Into Reverse? (via The Big Picture)

Norway Is First European Country To Lift Interest Rates

If you want more, just click. Freaking click anywhere. Sadly, enough don't click and won't and although it is most likely already too late for all of us, at least those that click and act now have fighting chance.

Turn Or Bust?

UPDATE: I got stopped out. Ain't this something? Hey, had to give it a very small shot. I'm long a smidge from the /ES trendline bust of the upper trendline at 1047. Waiting on the daily S Sto and the 60m RSI to do their think before I get in over my ankles.

OK - 1051 nut cutting time. I have done a great job getting us to here, now does it turn or bust?

DXY 1m - at LT top trendline

DXY daily

EUR/USD at support line

SPX 60m - No divergence yet but RSI is bottoming. At support line.

SPX daily - at 50ma and 61.8% retracement and took out the gap. S sto is not turning yet and this chart is the only one that looks like there is more weakness to come.

E-mini - UPDATE - Minis just filled the GAP!

I'm looking for long plays. I expect at leasat a backtest of the black trendline in the daily chart if the turn happens here. If it continues to go down, I'm stuck here with my willie in my hands. The alt targets from this am will be in play - the daily lower bb and the 38% fib.

GL out there.

Morning Post

Not quite the bottom yet, but we're getting close I suspect. SPX channeling down and price sitting on the gap and the 50% fib, nearing important support points but IMO the indicators are showing the falls strength is still pretty strong on the daily charts. The only thing that can stop the fall now is some PPT intervention.

POMO DAY IS TOMORROW. Last week the market rose pretty dramatically on Wednesday before POMO day and then gave it all back. If they begin a significant rise, that will be it for this fall. If you look at the daily chart below, you will notice that on this C wave climb it takes the market roughly 6 days to top but only 3 to bottom.

As for the count, 5 of c up begins soon. I have speculated from the beginning that 5 would truncate (I'm about 75% that the top is in). The lower red trendline on the daily chart may just be the new market support line as it rolls over. So, if we begin 5 up today or tomorrow it might not hurt too bad.

SPX 60m - You see the large blue megaphone. I'm not positive we make it to the bottom trendline on this fall, but we will be there (and thru it) sooner than later. I've been calling for a 1051 bottom which would do the trick and close the lower gap. The indicators here are not diverging yet.

SPX Daily - You all know that this chart really drives the majority of my calls. The S Sto is actually getting worse and is not about to turn. MACD, the histogram and ADX all look weak and not like they will be turning soon. WHAT WORRIES ME is the RSI and its interaction with the lower red trendline. It made it thru 50 (a support point) and if it can get thru here, the dailys will run to the bottom. You can clearly see the fibs, the 50 ma and the lower BB support points on the chart. Obviously my target is the 50 ma around 1051, then alt 1 would be the lower BB and alt 2 is the 38% retracement.

The e-minis 30m - are entering the gap from 1044 to 1055 channeling down. I'm not sold on the channel as it does not allow room for a faster fall, but it is the only really good pattern I have now. Indicators are embedding and should continue to. I could pen a lower trendline (green) that would allow for a greater faster fall, but I don't like it.

EUR/USD - Sitting at 1.4795 and the 61.8% fib is 1.4634. The lower rising wedge line (yellow) is above that point near 1.47. That should be it. If those give way look out. It closed slightly down yesterday making 4 red days in a row so maybe we get a green day here if not tomorrow. RSI is flat and turning it appears.

GL trading today!

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

More Good News!

My favorite story of the day from Zero Hedge: CNBC Viewership Plunges 50% In October. The inverse of the market's numbers (but worse). I guess bad news really does sell more than good news. Hmmm, I guess ratings will be up again soon.

Denninger keeps harping on the unrealistic actions of our government as they continue to operate from Fantasy Land in More Arrogation Of Power? Arrogation is a big word for me. This one is good highlighting the Fed and treasury's illegal actions early in the game. "The Fed created this mess. "Loose money" along with willful blindness to reasonable regulatory requirements and in fact black-letter statutory requirements under the law to apply "prompt corrective action", along with wanton and reckless refusal to supervise and impose controls on firms levered 20 or even 30:1, especially given that Henry Paulson lobbied the SEC to remove the investment bank leverage limits in 2004, were the actual and proximate cause of all the failures." LOL, we sheeple are so lacking in any viable representation it is totally ridiculous.

Mish has some great P3 material. It appears that there is an outside possibility of some major cities having to file for bankruptcy (why they did not do Birmingham I don't know). In City of Houston is Bankrupt (So are California, Oregon, and Pension Plans in General) Mish highlights Houston, California, Oregon and Pension Systems country wide as in deep trouble. "It is highly likely that nearly every pension plan in the country is busted. The solution is for every city and municipality in a predicament to "pull a Vallejo" and declare bankruptcy. Please see Judge Rules Vallejo Can Void Union Contracts for details." It is coming folks. The ball busting fall is coming. 2008 may have been a cakewalk for what I expect to come.

Prag Cap (as well as ZH) have the BILL GROSS: “ALMOST ALL ASSETS APPEAR TO BE OVERVALUED” post. LOL, PIMPCO, weren't they just dumping some positions last week (at our expense if I am not mistaken)? Guess that is not included in the insider selling numbers I posted yesterday. "Bill Gross, arguably the most powerful money manager in the world, has joined the ranks of Jeremy Grantham in saying stocks have risen due to artificial influences and are now substantially overvalued." When the hell are some of my readers going to come around and face the facts that this market is manipulated as all hell and when it lets go, all hell will break loose. I know, Shanky you are bashing America and our spirit. Uh, no, I'm bashing the fact that everything has been stolen from us by the banks and our government let it happen. WE had nothing to do with it and if WE don't get off OUR asses, WE will have nothing left to bitch about.

Mary Shapiro obviously went to a Dr., and he's prescribed some sort of testosterone rub for her and it may be working. The FT reports in SEC head urges fresh securities laws that, "US securities laws are outdated and legislation is needed to govern new investment products that blew up during the financial crisis, the Securities and Exchange Commission chairman told an industry gathering on Tuesday." ROFLMAO, what brainiac figured this out TWENTY YEARS AFTER THE FACT. Oh, that's right, Greenspan is out of the picture now, so hang Ben out to dry and you go to cut his fiscal legs out from under him and the economy. Don't expect anything other than rhetoric for at least 10 years.

That is enough for tonight. Don't forget the morning post. Thanks for tuning in.

(Unmask The Fed)

My Dollar Charts

Dollar daily - I had a really good EWT count on this one. See fib target boxes. OK, here is the deal. Price is at the upper trendline. RSI is at the upper trendline. MACD is at the upper trendline. If it is gonna turn back this would be a great spot, of course this is a good spot for it to break out as well. I'm in tune with Mark Faber's thinking that the dollar is going to $0 or somewhere near there in a few years, so a pop here to retracement area then continued weakness is what I am thinking.

Here is my Dollar v.SPX comparison chart. Look at the pink lines on RSI. The divergence in the MACD histogram and the consolidation in S Sto. Barring a really dramatic move in the dollar up, this chart says not yet on the market fall. Look for a divergence in RSI.

This Is A Good Chart - SPX 60m

Looking for the lower trendline (possibly worse). If worse it really tumbles hard.

This is my $$ F SPX - 60 min - Three Months chart in the chartbook. It updates on a 20m delay for you.

I'm gonna do a BIDU post in a minute.

Morning Post

I made a terrible, terrible mistake yesterday morning. I freaked out and sold my shorts from last week. (I discuss my trading issues with you from time to time as I feel conveying my mistakes may help some of you that are not as experienced.) Why, after riding them all the way up Friday and then on the first sign of strength today I dump them? 1) I don't trust the markets, 2) I don't trust the markets and 3) I listened to someone else and did not go with what I know is reliable and true.

I thought I was brilliant for about 15 minutes. I should have used liberal stops. I had cautioned about a whipsaw all throughout the morning post yesterday and when the daily indicators started to turn, I hauled ass. I can't explain why in any further detail to avoid being critical of anyone or anything, so I'll just leave it as my mistake and chalk it up to freaking out and not sticking to a plan. If I had simply stuck to my normal routine, I'd be sitting fat and happy and not brewing over a stupid mistake. I preach stops and routines or plans all the time and failed myself. So, get your plan and stick to it!

On to the post. I would love to post my Daily Indicator Chart here, but since Stockcharts has a tendency to blow up larger charts and since Stockchaarts does not work well AT ALL with Vista you can't see it (and I have to take the time to rebuild it). So instead I'll give you just the daily SPX chart.

Below notice 1) price sitting on the black trendline in the red circle 2) Price is just under the BB 20ma and the 38% retracement 3) RSI is sitting on the 50 line (pink) 4) MACD is approaching the lower trendline. All of these are pointed out cause they are potential negatives to the bear cause. Now all that being said, trends are down and my favorite timing indicator S Sto is not thinking about crossing. ADX looks bearish and there is a lot of room to fall. Look at the blue support area. Action with the 50ma at the 61.8% retracement is where I believe the turn will possibly happen around 1051. I am not leaving the lower BB at 1028 out of the question.

I am not going to post a 60m chart. The 60m indicators are bottoming but remember I place little weight on them as they tend to embed (especially at the top).

The most important chart out there IMO is the Weekly SPX. Will someone PLEASE tell me how long I have been begging for a divergence on the weekly RSI and pointing to the lower tendline cross? Heloooo, we got one and a trendline cross to boot. The two key things I have been looking for and that kept me in the long game for so long. ROC trendline breakdown. F Sto bear cross and trendline breakdown and and that beautiful falling MACD histogram all lead me to believe that there is an overly high probabiltiy the top is in and that the fall has begun.

Oops, did I leave that P2 target on the chart? I'm so sorry. Maybe I'll take that down after I print and frame the chart for prosperity. Yeah I had a 10/12 top call, but there was a larger window. If you hit the month and a range of 71 points from months out I'll still call that good (Now if it only sticks).

Now, different indexes are all over the place. The SPX and /ES are nowhere near it's lower P2 trendline support while INDU is sitting one it. I have had to draw three separate trendlines for COMPQ and it is cracking the third trendline now. RUT is way below it's P2 support and so is TRAN.

The dollar has reached my wave 5 target zone (perfectly I may add - see EWT does have its moments of brilliance) and put in a huge bullish candle today. The EUR/USD is breaking down. Oil has lost some steam (but will still go higher IMO) and gold continues it's march higher.

I'm still on the bear train for a little longer looking for the 1051 range here if not worse (1028 - 1012 is a number I like as well). All the other indicators are at their lower P2 trendlines or worse, so why not let SPX join the party? Remember I have discussed the FORM of the fall a lot, and we won't be able to really determine anything till it is finished topping and the first falling wedge is set.

You can not trust the manipulated market, but you have to wonder with all the "exceptional" earnings reports and the mix of bad news that "they" may be losing some grip. Insiders are selling out and MF money redemptions are pumping out. This could be another bear trap. I fully expect the government to come out with some form of last ditch efforts to get the market to rally. There is one more POMO this Thursday, but after that they are OUT OF MONEY. The CRE crash is coming and that will take down the TBTFs. With 70% of volume being HFT they can push it any way they freaking want to, so HAVE DISCIPLINE and a strategy and stick to it. I will be.

Monday, October 26, 2009

The Smell Of .....

What is that smell? Does not smell quite like victory for the bears yet, but it is the 4th quarter with about 5 minutes to go. The Green team is out of time outs and clinging to a one point lead. Red team is finally moving the ball. Green team is tired and their defense is showing some weakness. The red team's time to march the ball down the field for the winning score is all but certain. The only question is do they kick a field goal or ram it down their throats and get the TD?

Understanding todays market actions you need to look at what happened with the EUR/USD. Nic Lenoir does this well and lays it out nicely in Where Are Central Banks When You Really Need Them on Zero Hedge. "In very short term trading we hit the support however of a potential sideways channel, and short term indicators are massively oversold, so we could well retrace to 1,052 in the near term. Bigger picture we have two supports at 1,025 and 986. The later is pretty much the key between retracing to 862 and making new highs past 1,100." Someone around here has been looking for 1051 if I recall.

How can you tell when trouble is brewing? Sticking with the football theme from above Mish brings us Citigroup's "Hail Mary Pass": How To Know Citigroup Is In Serious Trouble. "Perhaps what we're really seeing is a business reacting to hidden deterioration of asset bases that are not known by investors and the public due to the legitimation of bogus accounting that happened this last March, but which is known by company executives!" Now Mish, seriously, accounting fraud and insinuating that there are improprieties surrounding a balance sheet? Oh, OK, I guess in fantasy land anything is possible. If we could only get more people to believe.

Speaking of not believing, Edward Harrison posts on Naked Capitalism Why is Zero Hedge claiming the Fed is intervening in equities markets? in a rebuttal to TD's An Overview Of The Fed's Intervention In Equity Markets Via The Primary Dealer Credit Facility. On one side you have ZH and their belief (gloriously endorsed here at Shanky's blog) of Fed intervention via the PPT in the equity markets and Edward "The Party Pooper" Harrison countering with that thought being basically preposterous. I have this to say, sometimes things RIGHT IN FRONT OF YOUR FACE are the hardest to see. Sure, the "theory" can not be "proven" at this time, but come on Ed, what the heck else could it be? Opening up your mind to something that "could be" is healthy. Give it a try sometime. Come on, you can do it.

On Friday Denninger put out Possible Credit Dislocation: Be Warned. Karl says, "I have reason to suspect that the "monetary transmission mechanism" is full of rocks (again), and we are about to have another instance of what could colloquially be called "fun." (Yes, that's sarcasm.)" and then lays out several interesting points you should read regarding credit and how it may affect you.

Prag Cap reminds us that INSIDERS STILL NOT BUYING THE RALLY. "Insider selling for the latest weak spiked to $846MM while buying remained abnormally low at $14.7MM. Selling spiked almost 3 fold, but was highly impacted by $330MM in selling in CBS by Sumner Redstone. Buying, however, fell from $32MM. Of course, it is the low level of buying that is particularly alarming. Insiders continue to exhibit an unusually low level of confidence in their own companies. As valuations spike, and the jobless/revenue-less recovery continues it’s not surprising to see insiders display a high level of skepticism in the rally that is most visible through the use of their own money." There are several other very useful posts there you should check out so hit the home button.

Funniest post of the day comes from The Big Picture - What’s in a Name? If you do not know what "tea bagging" is you should. Just look it up.

Have a great evening.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Morning Post

UPDATE - I am in cash - they whipsawed the dailys. Wait, no they did not. LOL this is some screwed up stuff.

The Fed and the PPT will have to begin working extended hours these days as pressures, news and reality are catching up at a rapid pace to the fictitious world they have been ruling over this past year. It is ending. The top is possibly in.

(For those of you doubting the existence of the PPT please read Zero Hedge's An Overview Of The Fed's Intervention In Equity Markets Via The Primary Dealer Credit Facility. This is possibly the best blow by blow description of the manipulated crap that is occurring in the equity markets.)

They can't keep the charade up much longer. The sheeple don't know it and don't see it, but they have no say in anything which is really sad. Everything is out of control. I am not sure what other moves they have up their sleeves, but they better keep batting 1,000 or this thing goes BOOM! Folks, they are out of money. They can't find anymore. Be prepared for a whole bunch of last ditch efforts coming very soon to save the market. They may provide temporary reprieve, but the end will happen sooner than later.

The call today is especially tough. Is the ABC complete? Does 5 of C begin here? Does this correction continue as a zig-zag? Is the top in (as I questioned last week)? Does the PPT step it up in the wake of all the bad news? Will the daily indicators whipsaw the shorts into one more squeeze?

Well, it will take a whipsaw to move the daily indicators out of their bearish stance and at this time. I'm speculating one could occur. I am gonna stick with my call from late Friday on Kenny's chat that further downside is coming and add the recommendation that you watch the indicators very closely. The divergences are still set. I can't bet on a whipsaw. I am short (EEV and BGZ), but could exit at any moment.

Keep an eye on the blog this week for updates. If the dailys begin to turn I'll be all over it. I'll also post later today on the perilous place some of the daily indicators are in (between trendlines), thus my worrisome stance against a lot more downside.

The crystal ball dream call is that I think the lower P2 (or bull run) trendline on the SPX and e-minis might get tested or cracked this week. I'm looking at a potential H&S set up (top is in if this is the case) that takes SPX to 975.

SPX Daily - Look at the pink market top trendline and follow it thru the chart.

SPX Daily Drill Down - Drilled down to see the interaction with the pink trendline. Look at the interaction with this line. Price is sitting on it as support. If it cracks the 50ma will pick up price.

/ES Daily - Lower yellow trendline is the bull market support line. The green line is new market support developing (possibly - add to the dream call above - thus a fake out move below support that has everyone go nuts, then stops and PPT comes to play at the green line to set the right shoulder). Gray box is a possible target if the breakdown continues. Something bothering me is the potential higher low set by the minis Friday (added to he potential end of the ABC).

GL trading!

Say Happy Birthday Shanky

Shuh, so get with it!

Friday, October 23, 2009

EUR/USD Weekly

The WEEKLY chart is a little busy due to the Fib Retracement on there, but it is there for a reason.

Yellow rising wedge plain as day. Note that it is in a battle with its next to last resistance line before approaching the top. The next stop if it gets thru here is the 78.6% Fib and the resistance at that same level. Another thing to note is that when it tanks it tends to fun a ways and in a hurry. Also notice the indicators. They are spent. There is not much room to run. If this resistance is taken out look for the EUR/USD to top at the $1.52 level and for the other indexes to top there as well.

Morning Post

Gotta go to the 3rd grade play this am, so I gotta do it tonight.

OK, I'm voting for some more downside. Yes, even though the futures are up 3+ at the time I am writing this and even though we are dealing with the most manipulated POS ever created. I have to go with what the charts say. Now, to clarify that, there are a few mixed signals, but sometimes you gotta make a call and I'm doing it.

VIX - Perfect backtest.

SPX - Perfect backtest of the wave 3 ED.

SPX Daily Chart - The divergences are still in tact, although hanging by a thread. The action in the MACD histogram makes me want to walk away and quit.

The E-minis are at their bear market top trendline.

Don't hold my feet to the fire on this call especially during earnings season. We shrugged off horrible unemployment numbers and whatever other crappy economic indicators that have hit this week and the march up continues. I just want a C leg down and a little more retracement and then we can march on. Probably a horrible call, but we'll see.

GL out there and have a great weekend.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

A Few Select Clips From Fall Of The Republic

Please watch this movie. I know, Alex Jones and conspiracy theories. Don't let that stop you this time. He's broken the trend and documented, very well IMO, this crisis, why it happened and where we're headed. Lots of fantastic stuff in here. Please watch it and get informed.

HERE is the link to AJ's YouTube page where the clips will roll thru uninterrupted.

The clip below will make you sick.

Cap and Tax (or make you puke part two) THIS IS JUST TOTALLY NUTS!

Folks - WAKE UP!

Morning Post

On the e-minis we have set a lower high and a lower low. This differs from most of the indexes that set higher highs yesterday. 531,000 (+11,000) in unemployment claims. LOL, "earnings being overshadowed by data" Cuntonia says on CNBS. When will these people get it. I'm not sure how they can lie to us morning after morning with a straight face. Pissani reminds me of the kid you always wanted to beat up in school for being such the goober. What a dork.

As for a count, who the heck knows? I think we ended a three and are beginning 4 down now, but that could possibly be only 4 of 3 and not 4 of C. I will assume that this is 4 of C down for now and project a truncated fifth wave, thus the top could be in. What can screw up that count? You know who, the manipulators. I have ridden them all the way up and I am very skeptical going against them. So there could be more upside and it will be generated thru stimulus or some false data points that are a load of crap. Could that have been the top? Yes it could have been.

So lets look at where we are -

/ES 60m - This chart is an absolute mess. Sorry, but what happens at tops or major transitions is everything gets lost for a few weeks while new patters and trends develop. That is where I think we are right now. A lower high and lower low are for sure. Gap support (Gray rectangle) from 1073 to 1069 held the fall yesterday almost perfectly. The large yellow wedge has broken down and had a back test. Fib targets for the e-minis are 1055 to 1044 (yellow box). The wedge target is the red line near 1027. the lower blue line is the lower P2 trendline. Note that the fall yesterday pulled the e-minis back thru the upper bear market trendline (gray) and the upper P2 trendline like a knife thru butter. I thought there would have been more resistance.

SPX 60m - See the black boxes? These falls have happened a bunch on this run up, so this one may not be a reason to get to excited. It must develop into something more. You can see the fibs on the chart, so I am not going to regurgitate them here. You can see the divergences in the indicators, but what I want you to look at is CCI. I "Shankified" it to 200 and have found something that gives a more reliable sell signal.

SPX daily - The stockcharts viewers saw this chart the past few days and it has done me well. The false sell two days ago, the average 6 day topping trend and the wait for POMO to clear and get short yesterday afternoon call was pretty sporty. (Note the bottoms are trending to be only 2 to three days.) Further downside is expected (unless they juice the dollar). Now PAY ATTENTION here, the only thing that worries me about the follow thru on the downside here are the pink trendline on RSI and the red trendline under MACD. If they hold, a small pop (possibly a 2nd wave) we get. The interaction with these trendlines will be key for the next couple of days. MASSIVE SUPPORT IN THE BLUE BOX.

Watch the fibs, trendlines and gaps on the way down. My charts update real time on stockcharts and I usually and updating them throughout the day. If the fall persists I'll do a more detailed post. I see no reason why this fall does not make it to the prescribed retracement areas.

I added a video - look to the right. Thanks to PM on ZH for turning me on to it. Jump You Fuckers is the title and I really like it.

GL trading and thanks for the views.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Let's Talk About The Fall And A RANT

Little stunned at the precipitous drop this afternoon. Can't say we did not see it coming. See my post from this morning or read any of my charts. The head fake yesterday may have been a early POMO ramp before the POMO ramp today. Either way I said yesterday to wait till this afternoon and then short. Yea me!

Was that "the" top? Who the hell knows? One more POMO day next week, but with only $1.6bn left in the coffers I would assume it will be meaningless (and I speculate you will hear rumblings about additional stimulus picking up really soon - whether we have the money or not). I doubt the top is in, but at this point every top could be "the" top. In the Morning Post I questioned whether I should have called a top yesterday. Boy the emails I got were funny. Who's laughing now? Plus, I did not call it. I'll not speculate on WHY the fall happened here, but it WAS plain as day technically.

What was not surprising either (to me) was the pace of the drop. Listen, you don't come here cause I've got big 'ol knockers like Michelle 600CC's or cause I am some brilliant MIT technician, you come, well, I'm not really sure why you do, but you do, so don't stop. I make sense to a lot of people, I keep it relatively simple, I apply some long forgotten techniques involving common sense and I get it right more often than not.

That said, let's talk about this top and the fall to come. First the fall. I have speculated that the fall will be really violent. You see we all have the mental capacity to remember 2008 (well, all of us but maybe the administration and 95% of our elected representatives). A good portion of us are not stupid (and even the stupid ones in this case) and will not want to experience the pain observed in the recent past. So, that means MASS EXODUS in a really short period of time. It won't happen immediately.

Using the Elliott Wave theory as a description. Wave 1 will be bad but it won't scare the shit out of everyone, just the ones with real smarts. Then you get the wave two up where the real dumb shits buy in looking for the big money (cause they know what the fuck they are doing) cause the market will never top. This wave includes all the bulltards that keep bashing the blogs thinking their shit don't stink. The top of two will be the last spot to exit longs (for many years IMHO) Ok, now the third wave down. Wave one of three will get EVERYONE'S attention (but the bulltards of course). If you are not out by now, you are an idiot. Wave three of three will be the killer, and I am anticipating TWO market closures and another money market run during this wave. No joking around. After that no one will give a shit about wave 4 and 5 cause it may not matter at that point. I'll do a chart and show the form of the impending fall, but till then imagine a lightning strike digging into the ground.

I have no targets cause I have not seen the fall yet, but I fully expect new lows to be set. I have no time frame for the fall, but I have introduced the word Konichiwa into my vocabulary (and not as some cute, cool dude, trendy BS thingy). I also anticipate those using EWT to time the falls the best. Yes, I said it. Yes, they totally sucked ass on the way up, but (trust me) they will be your best friend when the fall is on. I have preached all along about the FORM OF THE FALL. Always applying classic TA first and then sprinkling in some EWT you will get some really well timed calls on sell/buy points.

I will continue to call the market based mainly on the daily charts and will buy/sell and kick ass all the way down. Remember the 2x and 3x ETFs are meant to be traded, not held. As for the market now, remember the days of the 300pt 3:00 ramps? They will be back soon, just this time there will not be a recovery.


Remember this, those lying ass, cheating, stealing, money hungry, greedy mother fuckers have already stolen almost everything you have. This is a fucking battle between the elites and the rest of us. These assholes DON'T GIVE A SHIT ABOUT YOU! Power, greed and who dies with the most fucking toys is all that matters. Fuck your house, your car, your kids, fuck everything in the pursuit of power and greed. That is what you are dealing with.

Remember P3 above? Well at that point we'll be the most pissed off populace on the planet. Cause I am sure Rham and his crew are eavesdropping in on my posts (screw you government worms - I hope you realize who the fuck you work for) I'm gonna stop short of making any prognostications on how bad it will get, but I will say this, they are limiting gun sales and ammunition purchases for a reason.

State cessation? Yeah, I said it, and my happy little ass will be the first one to pack up the truck and move there. They discussed it last year and next year you may actually get a vote on it. This country is so screwed! Hell, the whole world is fucked. There is no return from rampant greed that has built a $450 PLUS trillion dollar derivatives market that is out of fucking control. Thanks Mr. Clinton, Greenspan, Summers and all the other representatives that forgot regulation in the name of profit. Screw you!

Don't forget fucking Cap and Tax. These assholes think they own the water that falls out of the sky and the rays that come from the sun. What a crock of shit. Cause some dip shit congressman was bought 20 hookers and taken to wherever buy a bunch of slick lobbyists and he now feels that he needs to put these "special interests" ahead of what is right for his constituents? Screw you! Just one bill won't hurt. Well in the US there are 100 senators and 435 members of the House of Representatives. That is a lot of freaking favors. I'm not going into health care. I'll blow a gasket.

Over the edge? Shanky, you're nuts? Nope, you see they are talking ACTIVELY about new currencies and the plummeting dollar. WTF sheeple? The fucking dollar. The currency that has ruled the world for eons is going bye bye. The end of this country is just around the corner. (The following may be a bit extreme) A new SOCIALIST state is most likely being planned. Hell, they have to have an exit strategy don't they? How the hell else are they going to get out of this mess? They have taken everything that is left and thrown it down the toilet. $450 TRILLION in derivatives that have NO REGULATIONS GOVERNING THEM are about to go BOOM! Every bank (everything for that matter) is busted. Look at all the laws and prohibitions they are placing one your daily life, all in the name of protectionism. Bull shit. They saw this shit coming since the 90's and they are ready.

I tell you the first thing that needs to be eliminated is the Fed (Unmask The Fed). Then take out the lobbyists. Then trash everyone in Washington and start over with THE CONSTITUTION (in its original form - not this toxic fucked up shit they have turned it into) as a base and go from there. Oh, I would shut down the boarders, kick out all the illegals, pull back all military, tell the IMF to fuck off and deal with our problems first.

That is enough for now. I'm sure more will come soon enough. You need to open your eyes and call your representatives and express your legitimate concerns (and express your anger if you like) NOW! I have a feeling congress will have one last chance to make a stand for the people. They will have to choose between the banks and us. I have a feeling that we will win that battle (if we speak up), cause if we don't .....

Representative Offices are here.

Senators of the 111th Congress here.

What are you waiting on? Call 'em or email 'em NOW!

I hope you got to see "The Warning" last night on Frontline. If not please visit the PBS site here and learn how the bankster pigs in the name of greed and power really screwed up this country and shut down Brooksly Borne and her efforts to contain the contagion (derivatives market) that has caused the mess we are in now. If you think we'll ever get any sort of meaningful regulation of the financial markets, you have been smoking too many green shoots. If they ever decided to try to regulate the derivatives market it is guaranteed the 400+ trillion mess would surely collapse. Thus, we are left to either make it or break it, and I don't like our odds.

Have a great evening.

Morning Post - Possible Sell Signals

I hoped you got to see "The Warning" last night on Frontline. If not please visit the PBS site here and learn how the bankster pigs in the name of greed and power really screwed up this country and shut down Brooksly Borne and her efforts to contain the contagion (derivatives market) that has caused the mess we are in now. If you think we'll ever get any sort of meaningful regulation of the financial markets, you have been smoking too many green shoots. If they ever decided to try to regulate the derivatives market it is guaranteed the 400+ trillion mess would surely collapse. Thus, we are left to either make it or break it, and I don't like our odds. Pretty good odds at getting a rant from me out of this though.

/ES 5m - The gray line is the bear market top trendline. The royal blue line is the top P2 (or overall market correction) trendline.

/ES 60m - You can see the interaction between the gray and blue trendlines better here as the e-minis consolidate between the two over the last few weeks. The breakdown out of the top of the wave C rising wedge (yellow) seen here is a good sign combined with the SPX indicators of some workable downside here (I am actually questioning if I should have called a top yesterday). The fib retracement for the fall is the yellow box from 1055 to 1044. The red line below the fib box is the target for the measured wedge move at 1027. Also note the lower P2 rising wedge lower trendline (royal blue) near 1013.

SPX daily chart - You all know this is my favorite chart cause the indicators IMHO tell the market moves the best. Most of the indicators have run up to their divergence lines and are (thankfully/hopefully) turning south now. IMO a possible sell signal was given yesterday, but I did not act on it as today is a POMO day and they usually guarantee a ramp job. I plan on shorting this afternoon if conditions persist. If I missed the opportunity to short yesterday, this fall should be good enough to jump in and get some action even if late.

SPX 60m - LOL, do ya'll remember the Mr. Microphone commercials from way back when? "Hey good looking, we'll be back to pick you up later!" Ha! Dig the hair and the clothes, priceless! Well welcome to the Mr. Megaphone market formation screaming loudly, "Hey, babe! I'm manipulated as hell and am gonna keep going up cause of extensive fraud and a total lack of regulation and there ain't shit you can do about it!"

Looks like 3 of C is topping and there are some nice divergences in the indicators. There are a whole bunch of fibs listed on this chart to use to measure the possible fall.

Note: On the statement I made above about contemplating a top call yesterday, bottom line is IMHO we're getting close. The interaction with the bear market top trendline on the e-minis, the overbought conditions, the price multiples, sentiment, insider selling, the indicators (except for the monthlys) and the fact that I believe we'll have a truncated 5th topping wave all lead me to believe the top could possible be set. We'll see. (EDIT- LOL, guess not. Hey, I had one of those "feelings". Let's call it a moment. A bad moment before a POMO day. I said almost but did not do it. About those feelings, they usually come a day early. One thing is for sure, I'll start screaming from the roof tops when I think the top is coming.)

Please read this - Unmask The Fed

Earnings Calendar from for your convenience.

GL out there.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

News - The Video Edition

DO NOT FORGET "The Warning" tonight at 9:00 on Frontline.

Ron Paul on CNN-Bailouts-Wall St Fraud 10-20-09 - "Wall St. has the strings on Washington. That is where the corruption is."

Gerald Celente on The Corbett report 19 Oct 2009 "There is no recovery. It is a cover-up." and "It is a cover-up that has been painted over with phantom money." Classic Celente. Gotta love him.

From Zero Hedge - Dylan Ratigan Discusses Obama's Purported Secret Agenda - Dylan's set gows larger each day, and I appreciate him for attempting to spread the news.

It all makes so much sense now - Wall Streets Trickle Down - "40% jump in Wall Street bonuses could boost sales of the city's multi-million dollar apartments and generate extra tax revenue for New York City. (Bloomberg News)" Uh, OK, if you say so. Who says crime does not pay!

Sadly I forgot about ICN - Informed Citizen News 10/11/09 - FDA rushing thru swine flu vaccines that may not be safe, Former Monsanto exec and chief lobbyist now Sr. Advisor to FDA (he's a-ok with GMO foods by the way)? and more surprising stuff the MSMs don't cover.

Don't forget to help here as well - Unmask The Fed

This Looks Ominous

Somebody call Storm Chasers - We got a huge ass wall could building and it looks like it is dropping a few tunnels.

/ES Weekly - Yes, that is the whole fall and the e-minis are testing the bear market top trendline. Look at Volume, RSI and STO and MACD. WOW!

/ES Daily - drill down of the above. Bear cross in S Sto and RSI with nice divergence and headed south. Volume dwindling on this run up.

Put this with the VIX in the post below and you get a bad situation soon.