Tuesday, June 30, 2009

At The Top Of The /ES Channel Again

Pretty self explanatory. This is the bear market channel I have shown before for the /ES. If it does bust it, 938 will be the line in the sand IMO. Is the painting of the statements over? The high this morning at /ES 926 touched the channel line on a 1m chart. 60m SPX bounced off of the 61.8% retrace from the 956 top. 60m indicators on SPX are overbought.

The dailys still have some room to run up. Taking out the 927 high was a big deal, but I don't think we take out 956. This move up (if it continues) should set the indicators on the weeklys for a pretty strong fall. I would not be surprised to see the manipulators drive the market thru this trendline on low volume holiday week. Either the 60m continue to embed and the dailys run their course up or we have a minor pullback here.

GL trading.

Weekly -

Daily -

60m SPX -


From ZH - Confidence-Market Divergence Accelerates "The last time we got a -2.42 standard deviation between confidence and the market, things got real ugly, real fast."

Let The Conspiracy Games Begin

I've warned in the past that I am somewhat a conspiracy nut, but I would not take the blog there till the time was right. Well, it appears the ground swell of pissed off investors is upon us. The incredibly obvious manipulation of the markets and the media has finally pushed the launch button of Internet driven reform.

TPC has this to say, "As the global economy collapsed last year and U.S. citizens sank under crushing house prices and job losses Goldman appeared to be flourishing (also see here). Despite doing more than just about any other firm to help create the housing bubble Goldman is now one of the greatest beneficiaries." WTF people? The alarm clock is going off and it is time to get out of bed.

What really got me pumped tonight was a post on Prag Cap - THE GOLDMAN SACHS CONSPIRACY?. In this MUST READ post is Looking Behind The Curtain, The "Real" Conspiracy by Martin Armstrong. It is a tail of insiders and GS that will have you so pissed off you might just beat your dog (please don't). This is one you may have not seen just yet. Please read it. Wait till you read the Buffett implications. Wild stuff.

Most of my readers know about ZH and the campaign to rattle the SEC, but if what is in the Armstrong story is true, we got no freaking chance. No one does. Not the Chinese, Russians, SEC, the Attorney General - no one, because the web of GS is cast far and wide.

I'm sure you have read Goldman Sachs: "Engineering Every Major Market Manipulation Since The Great Depression" (linked to the new ZH.com site). If not, please take the time. Matt Taibbi’s piece in Rolling Stone is something else.

Well, one of two things is going to happen 1) they are going to shut the Internet down so you never know the truth (which in some circles is believed to be in the works) or 2) we actually have a once in a lifetime chance to make a difference in America and save it from the fascists (no, that is not a delusional statement). I don't think they'll shut down ZH, but the actions TD's taken to avoid personal loss are well thought out and somewhat scary if you think about it (read his Transitioning post if you have not). Anyone want to put an Over/Under on the amount of time it takes for him to get a CnD order?

If you can't wake up to the reality that is blatantly in your face and are not at least slightly motivated to at least begin to ask questions, you might as well be a drone or one of the sheeple being hearded and controlled by powers that don't give a shit about laws or our Constitution. Pay not attention to the laws they are trying to enact to take away your constitutional right to bear arms. An armed populace may be the only way we get out country back from these assholes.

I may elect to hammer on the Fed some to keep things fresh (well, they are run by GS people too..oops...Did the O ever hold a post at GS? LOL). If you have something you expect or want to know more about let me know and I'll dig something up.

GL trading this week. Thanks for your views and comments.

Monday, June 29, 2009

Cap And Trade - Death Blow To Our Future?

Well if it is not the death blow, it is expected to pummel us into a standing eight count. Desperate times require desperate measures. Let's face it. This carbon tax thingy and the reliance on foreign oil thingy have been building for some time. Well lookie here, a "proactive" bill that increases taxes and addresses these two critical issues. That's a threefer. Let's ram this one thru the house.

I am all for oil independence, a greener earth, job growth, etc, but can this be delivered without massively increasing taxes and destroying the current energy system? My thoughts are at the end.

In Cap and Trade; a Solution to a No-existent Problem with Devastating Consequences they throw CnT under the buss. "Obama’s said, “At a time of great fiscal challenges, this legislation is paid for by the polluters who currently emit the dangerous carbon emissions that contaminate the water we drink and pollute the air we breathe.” This is false. He incorrectly substitutes carbon for CO2 and it is not a pollutant for air or water; it occurs naturally in both. It’s true industries producing CO2 will initially pay through Cap and Trade but they will pass the costs to the consumer. A critical question is who pays when all the “polluters” are out of business?". And this, "Spain was touted as the model because it led all countries in money and commitment to electricity from renewable energy. Spanish economics professor Gabriel Calzada calculates that, ”each new job entails the loss of 2.2 other jobs that are either lost or not created in other industries because of the political allocation --sub-optimum in terms of economic efficiency --of capital.” A pretty brutal article covering what the author believes are lies and deceptive practices used to force this bill thru.

Before the tree huggers out there go nuts, check out Cap-and-trade does more harm than good. "We would support legislation in Congress to address climate change if it were capable of accomplishing that goal. Unfortunately, despite the best intentions of its proponents, the bill known as Waxman-Markey would disable our ability to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions for at least a decade, hugely increasing the risk of irreversible climate calamity." Oops, they got the tree huggers pissed off too. "While U.S. officials vowed to learn from Europe's mistakes, the bill sponsored by Reps. Henry Waxman (D., Calif.) and Edward Markey (D., Mass.) has many of the same flaws and adds massive "offsets" that blow away the "cap" in "cap-and-trade." Offsets allow polluters to, for example, pay to preserve an acre of forest so they can continue burning coal above the cap. The concept's problems are legion and well-documented."

What does the WSJ have to say on the subject? Who Pays for Cap and Trade?. "We asked the White House budget office for the assumptions behind its revenue estimates, but a spokesman said the Administration doesn't have a formal proposal and will work with Congress and "stakeholders" to shape one. We were also pointed to recent comments by Mr. Orszag that he was "sure there will be enough there to finance the things that we have identified" and maybe "additional money" too. In other words, Mr. Obama expects a much larger tax increase than even he is willing to admit." In other words they have no freaking clue what the net effect will be. NONE.

How about the Washington Post? Something positive, right? Cap-and-Trade: All Cost, No Benefit. "The proposed legislation would have a trivially small effect on global warming while imposing substantial costs on all American households. And to get political support in key states, the legislation would abandon the auctioning of permits in favor of giving permits to selected corporations." Excuse me? "in favor of giving permits", I smell a GE rat somewhere. Feldstein concludes, "In my judgment, the proposed cap-and-trade system would be a costly policy that would penalize Americans with little effect on global warming. The proposal to give away most of the permits only makes a bad idea worse. Taxpayers and legislators should keep these things in mind before enacting any cap-and-trade system." and he's no idiot.

A Primer from Market Ticker - Carbon Credits: A Scam Denninger cuts thru the crap like no one else. Simple and pure.

Let's try another. No let's not. Let's try one from the "other side".

Huffington Post has Cap and Trade What? where you get bullshit like this, "While driving down pollution, cap and trade will also generate a lot of money for investing in energy efficient programs and clean energy. These investments, in turn, will help to create over 2 million new American jobs in just 2 years." Friggin moron. Weee, smell the flowers and look at all the good that will come out of this. This is what the other side sees folks. It's all rosy and perfumed up. Friggin lipstick on a pig is all this crap is.

Here is the root of all the propoganda to support the bill - 10 Reasons to Support the Waxman-Markey Energy Bill from the authors themselves.

I'll address them one by one - Emphasis my response

1. The Waxman-Markey bill will create jobs by spurring investment in renewables and efficiency. Bullshit, it will eliminate more jobs as companies are taxed to death.
2. Boosting investments in low-carbon energy will help the United States regain the lead in the manufacture and sale of clean-energy technologies. Shouldn't we be able to do this anyway?
3. The global warming threat is growing, and we have no more time to lose. Bullshit, see Feldstein quote above
4. The bill would cut greenhouse gas emissions enough to equal pollution from half a billion cars. Whatever. Orzag can't even quantify the net effect and you can pull this out of your ass?
5. It would increase new building efficiency by 50 percent. Possible
6. It limits impact from energy costs on families and would make emitters pay to pollute. No, it would force the companies to pass along the increased costs to the consumers.
7. It provides a smooth transition for energy-intensive industries. If Britan and Spain are having such a tough time with this then what the funk makes you think it will work here?
8. Opponents of action would continue the status quo of doing nothing, which cost the average family a $1,000 increase in energy bills over the past eight years. See answer to #6. If I am getting redundant, so are they.
9. Investments in carbon capture-and-sequestration research and development to reduce global warming pollution from coal-fired power plants. Ok, so go screw the industry that produces 46% of our power. That's really friggin smart.
10. The bill has critical industry support. From what industry? Let me guess that Immelt and GE are the primary backers of the bill. How about trying to educate the public and letting them decide. Now that is a novel idea.

Bottom line folks is that this has not worked anywhere it has been tried and most likely will not work in the form it is being shoved thru congress in. I would love to see a thoughtful bipartisan bill passed, because I believe that, if done properly, this could work. till then I think the feather in the "cap" that is to produce jobs, save the earth, blah, blah, blah will become the thorn in the ass.

Traders edge - consider buying the power companies and GE IMO. Their prophets are going to soar and you'll need the appreciation in the stocks to pay for the higher prices that will be passed along.

GL trading

Sotomayor Decision And States Lending Laws - Actual Good News

Two important events come from the Supreme Court today.

Sotomayor decision shot down by Supreme Court. Apparently O's tentacles don't reach all the way in to the court on high. Maybe there is some hope for justice yet.

States can enforce own fair lending laws against banks even against federally chartered banks. Look out banksters, I smell an ass kicking coming.

Sunday, June 28, 2009

A Few Bearish Observations And Some Other Things

From Calc Risk - BIS: Toxic Assets Still a Threat. This report may move the markets south Monday AM (before the PPT wakes up at least).

From The Market Ticker - SEVERELY Bearish Treasury Development Another report that may effect the market this AM. "There was no reason cited for the withdrawal but one can surmise that the issue is that they're stuffed to the gills with Treasuries and are finding it difficult or impossible to earn their spread, think there is a material safety risk in their participation (e.g. getting stuck long with a deteriorating position), or both."

From Seeking Alpha - Absurd Inverse and Leveraged ETF Product Whining David Fry says, "I’m a fan of these products and glad they’re available. They, like any other security or product, need to be used properly." What? Did I get that right, a positive statement on the ETF's we all love to use?

From Rick Bookstabber (via the Big Picture) - The 7 Habits of Highly Suspicious Hedge Funds Is a great read onone of the many ways you are getting screwed.

GL this week.

Saturday, June 27, 2009

Help Zero Hedge Get The SEC Off Its Ass

In a post that might just become the rally cry for decency in the markets, TD might have finally posted the post that wakes up the masses. Please view this post and contribute if you can. Thanks.

The SEC Needs Your Feedback

Friday, June 26, 2009

Weekend Video Pleasure with Dan Osman

NO ROPES. The Late Dan Osman did some really wild and crazy stuff. Check out the leap at 1:04. Balls baby! Big balls.

This one will make you willy just watching it. Friggin nuts. 2:30 inverted no hands no ropes move. Wow!

2 deceased in a row, gotta stop that. Promise next weeks wont be about you know who.

Have a great weekend. I'll be reporting from Colorado all next week.

Cartoon Of The Day

Thursday, June 25, 2009

A Post Of Good Posts

From Market Ticker - More Front-Running: Where Are The Cops?. Its funny but not like the next three. (And you wonder why I am screaming long because of manipulation.)

From Calculated Risk - Market and LO Quiz take the qiz to see if you could be a Loan Originator. While we're taking quizes, screwing around a little and since football is just around the corner, try this sample wonderlick test for fun.

From Mish - Dr. Seuss On The Economy A delightful parody. Wonder what they could have done with The Lorax.

From TD at Zero Hedge - Gazprom And State Of Nigeria Create JV Named "Nigaz" - Might be the funniest post of the year thus far. Have not validated the content. Must read the comments.

And from the conspiracy files - Journalist Files Charges against WHO and UN for Bioterrorism and Intent to Commit Mass Murder Let's just take Swine Flu to pandemic level six why don't we. Looking for some inside info on trading the swine flu pandemic coming this fall. Novartis and Baxter are right in the middle of this one. Straight out of the movies. I laugehd till I read the charges and the article.

GL trading.

The Case For More Upside Here

OK, I'll try to leave the obvious manipulation out of this and try pure TA, but we all know that the market will go where they want it to. Sorry to all the P2 is over people, I just don't see it yet. I know I am going out on a serious limb here, but this is what I see and I think I'll make a good case for more upside here. You all know me as a straight shooter, so I'm firing both barrels. If I am wrong, so be it, we all know no one is prefect.


I believe the VIX is irrelevant, but I will include it here anyway. VIX set a new low today and appears to be stuck in a channel headed south with the rest of the world. Daily VIX looks like it has a little more room to fall. There was an obvious failed (shutdown) breakout of the VIX last week. I'm really not sure what is going on here, but the lack of fear in the market is astounding to me. The upper black trendline needs to be broken before you can get excited about any sustained move south in the markets. Until this line is broken, fuhgeddabout any serious moves south. The weekly indicators are embedding low.

60m chart

Channel to gap fill, 100ma resistance and top of 60m BB. Sure looks like a top here. They cant push it any higher?

Well, lets look at a little larger 60m chart.

Looks like a clear breakdown of the blue trendline. Uh oh, looks like a clear breakout of a descending trendline. Nope, you can't move it up and out. Leave it there for now. Ever heard of a back test? I'm not thinking about that here but not leaving it out of the equation. Indicators on this chart still have some room to run and there is no rule I know of (especially in this market) against getting and remaining overbought. Completed a 50% retrace off of 826 low and bounced nicely at 888 support.

Daily chart

Ah, to me the dailys rule the roost. The 60m can bounce around, but this puppy drives the boat IMO. Just look at the big indicator chart linked below. Not to mention the 50 and 200ma support and the lower BB sitting just below. Like a freaking trampoline man. Boingggg.

No fear in an obviously controlled market with the dailys bottoming and turning up, there is only one place for it to go from here. Is this a big bear flag? I just can't buy that. Now, if I am wrong here's why - the weeklys are going to trump the dailys and the 60m rollover and force the dailys back down, and the world is crashing down around me and I somehow missed it. I think momo is still on the side of the manipulators (duh). Of course after todays actions given the hand that was dealt the market, besides getting bombed or some other horrible event I'm not sure Superman could push this market down.

Now remember, I am not a counter and do not pretend to be one. I use them in my calculations. At this time I mostly disagree with the bearish counts. I am sticking to my call of 847, but after this pop up when the weeklys get the proper divergences set. A slight manipulated short squeeze here moves us higher. I have not set a target, but believe that 956 is safe as the higher high. The bigger short squeeze happens later after the fall to 847. It may not mean anything, but the monthly EMA10 that the market likes to obey was kissed today from underneath. This kiss sent the market south at the last bottom in '03 for the dead cat bounce. If this holds, I wrote all this for naught.

For a more detailed daily chart click here.

For a more detailed weekly chart click here.

UPDATE: For the perma shorts - This from Prag Cap - DAMON VICKERS: TIME TO GET AGGRESSIVELY SHORT

"I believe that if life gives you lemons, you should make lemonade... And try to find somebody whose life has given them vodka, and have a party."
Ron White

GL trading. Comments welcome. I'm sure I'll get a few.

Having Problems Connecting To My Blog?

Got this message from flyfar on K's site -

"Shankster -- While on the topic of whining ... what's the problem with your blog! Very difficult to connect ---all I continue to get is the framework! This occurs both in trying to connect from other blogs (k/dano) or going direct by typing in your adress. It ain't my pc either...your site is the only one I have any problem with. Only occasionally you missives/charts show up. What's the matter. don't like sheeple? f"

I was not aware of any issues that exist and apologize for any inconvenience.

Please send me an email (planningguru@gmail.com) or leave a comment about connection issues if you have them. As you know this is Blogger and I have little control, but can fix certain issues. If anyone has any "tips" they use those are always appreciated as well.

Thanks a bunch flyfar for the info. Greatly appreciated!

GL today.

Cramer Is So ..... Cramer

If I had the time I would pick his picks apart (see link below). I want you to know that I gave up watching CNBS months ago and now listen to BBerg radio during the day. Since Dillan R left I no longer watch FM. I don't even look to see what is on CNBS.

What got me going earlier today was a comment from a Stocktocker that said, "Cramer is too good. He calls continue to be rock. ORCL rocks". I asked if he was kidding and got this, "No I am not. I have been following his advice for the last year and am up almost every single time I make a trade. I bought orcl AH on his recommendation. He called the bottom at 666 and told me to get out at 10000. What more can I ask for?" What? Heloooo?

I was confused as some of the other commenters. I guess if you get lucky and play roulette you'll hit the number every now and then and this commenter must have been very lucky with what he chose to play. I hope he reads this post and any other Cramericans out there, cause the guy IMHO is not right. Buy, buy, buy or sell, sell, sell just does not cut it.

The must read post I liked the best I found was from Dailykos in March called Jim Cramer Uses CNBC to Manipulate Stocks. "This is Cramer's big secret. He figured out early that the way to make money betting on stocks was to rig the game - control the news and you control a stock's value. Now he has his own TV show." and " Jim Cramer is a crook. Wall Street is full of crooks. The next time you see CNBC, keep that in mind. They are not reporting. They are trying to sell you something and, quite possibly, trying to manipulate the market." For Cramer haters this is a must read. Eye opening to say the least.

What further took me over the edge was his flip flop on the Fed and his call for "a little less democracy". Say what? Best post on the web on this came from The Market Ticker. In More Bernanke, Mr. Issa, And The Media Denninger shreds Cramer, "LESS DEMOCRACY Jim? Oh, I get it. You think that The Federal Reserve should be able to break the law any time it wants? That it should be able to, for example, buy Freddie and Fannie paper even though the clear black-letter law says it cannot? The Fed should be able to set up "Maiden Lane" LLCs like candy for the explicit purpose of hiding deteriorating assets which it also cannot legally purchase?"

TD at Zero Hedge blogged in I Would Like To Thank The Academy, Goldman Sachs, And God (Jeff Immelt)... Where you get two nice vids. Today's defence and a link to the classic rant spanking the Fed.

If you have not seen the vid from Wiztradetv, they put TA to Cramer's picks. Stock Trading Rumble: Mad Charts Vs Jim Cramer 2009-06-23. Pretty funny.

Folks, we're all down on the media and CNBS deserves every bit of criticism they are getting. I think Cramer is crap and is not doing the public a just service. For some reason I am not going ballistic in this part of the post. Probably cause it is so sad, so pathetic, so....whatever adjective you want to put to it. Folks, if you watch him, please don't listen. I was going to add several videos here, but would much rather post Cynthia McKinney's vid than his (ouch!). If you don't believe me, do a little research into his past. Watch the John Stewart v. Cramer vid or one of the hundereds on youtube documenting his mistakes. If that does not change your mind your are hopeless. For suggested reading look up this, "Nicholas Maier worked for Cramer until 1998. He quit and wrote a book about it called, Trading with the Enemy: Seduction and Betrayal on Jim Cramer’s Wall Street (New York: HarperCollins, 2002)."

The one positive on CNBS is this from trader steve on Kenny's site today.

This makes up for some of CNBS's mistakes but not all. Nice!

(Note: Ever do spell check with Cramer all over an article? It pops up red all over the place. Even the computer does not like him LOL.)

GL trading.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

The Case For Up Or Down

OK, notes are on the chart, but I’ll try to get all the facts in.

UP Case – Bounced off lower BB, got golden cross, daily RSI takes out trendline and headed up (must get thru 50), S TO at bottom (can embed), MACD Hist turning up, possibly just completed and ABC corrective, possibly just had an A-E falling wedge throwunder. P2 is not over and there is more upside.

Down Case – Economy sucks and we got a bunch of crooks running the show (the crooks part can work for both up and down scenarios), we are in wave of P3 headed to hell in a hand basket courtesy of your government’s lack of oversight and gratuitous credit allotment, the weekly indicators are topping and giving signals across the board we’re going south, PE ratios in the stratosphere, 30% + move without significant correction, the monthly indicators are starting to show signs of topping…… and have you seen the yearly indicators?

In my blog I am on record for thinking there is more upside before the crash in Q4 or Q1, but I am also holding that it is just fine if we crash here. Here is my post from last week on my thoughts on overall direction and possibilities.


Summary – not sure how it is gonna work, but I’m looking for more upside before a fall to 847ish. I do not think the 956 top is in jeopardy at all. I have to go with the daily indicators bottoming out and the ABC or A-E wedge completing. At this time the weeklys are topping. I think the dailys make one more push up and then we fall more significantly. It can go either way from here though (thus I am long and short 10% looking to add when direction is made clear). With Ben speaking later today he’ll move the market one way or the other. He’s focused on the bond market right now. He can’t let the yield curve get away from him, so he’ll say whatever is necessary to move it in his favor. If you actually think someone on the hill is gonna tell the truth you are on drugs and need serious help. GS, MS and JPM will come in to manipulate the markets as necessary. Here is a good post I found the other day on the PPT. Good read and check out the source of the article. Scroll about halfway down till you see Moral Hazard and More on manipulation and a shadowy group called the CRMPG. http://www.nowandfutures.com/false_data.html

GL Trading.

Cynthia McKinney: Obama Admin = Bushism with Bush

Vid courtesy of Ron Paul's Myspace page.

"I don't think this is the hope and change that people voted for in November". It gets better from there as she throws "O"binhood under the bus. This is for sure a lot calmer than the last vid I saw her and her posse in. Maybe in Cynthia's "time off" she has seen the light. Doubt it, but maybe. She makes some good points, but good points are easy to come by these days aren't they.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Watch The Cops Haul Ass

I'd say the people Iran are slightly pissed off. At 2:00 the tides turn. Wonder if they got away or not. Nothing like 2,000 rock and pipe humming pissed off people charging maybe 50 cops. LOL. Dumb ass cops are throwing rocks back at the protesters. OK, give the pissed off crowd even more of a reason to come get you. Freaking stupidity. LOL. RUN AWAY. Maybe I'll begin posting more vids from Iran, so we can be prepared for future similar actions in the USA.

Monday, June 22, 2009

What Is Mightier, The Channel, The Trendline Or The Golden Cross?

Well, apparently the bear market is over. The Golden Cross is upon us. All is well in the world and CNBS and their happy little mouth pieces can report the great news. Surely the Golden Cross will occur and drive the VIX under 30 and all will be right in the world of finance.

First a recap of the current situation.

Let's get ready to RUMBLLLLLLE. We have a challenger to the Golden (Boy) Cross. In the red corner weighing a ton is the primary channel of the /ES. As seen below, this channel is well established. Can it withstand a beating from the Golden Boy? The futures have an ally in the indicators on their side. The daily and weeklys are headed south and will assist in the corner. I assume it will be a good fight. Could not locate Vegas odds.

But wait there are two more challengers looming in the path of the Golden Boy's ascent to the title if the channel should fail. The trendline twins lie just above along with historical 954 and 1007 resistance. The futures were possibly (YTBD) no match, but in a more fair SPX vs. SPX fight the trendlines twins will prevail. In the below chart if resistance and double top at 954 is over run, the pink and blue trendlines lie waiting for a good fight. Aiding these trendlines vs. the Golden Boy will be all of the atrocities that our government has done to fix the problems since the RE bubble was put into action and the residual effects of a world in peril. A virtually undefeatable combination. See my last post - It's Only Gonna Get Worse From Here for more ammo fighting the Golden Boy.

The web is kind of quiet on the Golden Cross issue right now. The studies I am reading vary. Some are bullish and sound like CNBS cheerleaders on acid, so I am not presenting those. The more neutral reports on the subject follow. Bottom line, it's historically not that big a deal when the 200ma is in a solid downtrend.

The MarketSci blog has done some good work analyzing the Golden Cross. The following links have several blogs on the subject all worth reading.

MarketSci Blog - Testing the Rare Downtrending Golden Cross.

MarketSci Blog - Moving Average Crossovers Debunked?

MarketSci Blog - Which Golden Cross is the Best Golden Cross?

Pragmatic Capitalist has this - USING THE 200 DMA AS A BUY/SELL SIGNAL

Only time will tell, and if there is a severe move south, this will all be for nothing. Remember they have not crossed yet.

GL trading.

It Is Only Gonna Get Worse From Here (Really)

Just a slew of positive news out over the past week (LOL). Great things are happening all around us. Mainly the effect of this good news is that the manipulators are getting ready to get their just desert. CNBS will blow it all off and just change their tune (which should be interesting if you watch - I don't. BBerg Radio rules). It's a comin folks.

Let me see, insiders bailing, CRE collapse can't be hidden any longer, lack of liquidity to support both the treasury and equity markets, states about to go bankrupt left and right, world bank cutting global growth forecast (I won't even get into commodities or dollar pricing in this post), deflation then inflation then hyperinflation AND the FTC is going to start oversight of the blogosphere. Fanfreakingtastic news isn't it? If P3 (the big crash) ain't here, it will be soon. If you are long anything you better be hedged.

From Bloomberg - Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years (Update2). "“If insiders are selling into the rally, that shows they don’t expect their business to be able to support current stock- price levels,” said Joseph Keating, the chief investment officer of Raleigh, North Carolina-based RBC Bank, the unit of Royal Bank of Canada that oversees $33 billion in client assets. “They’re taking advantage of this bounce and selling into it.”" Ya think?

From TD at Zero Hedge - Moody's: "Sellers Beginning To Capitulate To Realities Of CRE Markets.". "The size of April's decline, following a 5.5% decline in January, also suggests that sellers are beginning to capitulate to the realities of commercial real estate markets," says Moody's Managing Director Nick Levidy. "While loss aversion is no doubt still in play with many owners, more distressed sales appear to be occurring, resulting in more negative returns and causing larger drops in the index." No way. CRE is just fine. No problems here. nothing to see. Move along sheeple.

Market Ticker - Liquidity Disappearing. "Bernanke and Obama are backed into a corner, exactly as I predicted would happen. In order to continue to issue like this in the Treasury market while not driving Treasury rates to the moon money will have to be "scared" into bonds - which means blowing up the stock market." Liquidity? What about the printing press? Did you run out of ink?

Mish - States in Deep Trouble Over Plunging Income Tax Revenues. 20 states depending on personal incomes taxes for >. "25% of total taxes were down 20% or more on collections. This is a very grim report on state finances." One slightly overlooked and under publicized topic, job loss.

Naked Capitalism - World Bank Cuts Growth Forecast Mid-June; Bloomberg Claims Markets Take Notice Today. "We did note at the time that it was puzzling that the media took so little note of the marked change in the World Bank forecast, since it is usually an above-the-fold news item. And looking at the World Bank site, I do not see a new press release (the older one was dated June 11)." Media overlooked this report? You gotta be kidding me?

AP - FTC plans to monitor blogs for claims, payments. "It would be the first time the FTC tries to patrol systematically what bloggers say and do online. The common practice of posting a graphical ad or a link to an online retailer — and getting commissions for any sales from it — would be enough to trigger oversight." Well, it was fun while it lasted. Better learn to read thru the CNBS BS, cause you won't be getting any more articulate and truthful information like you have just read in this post.

Folks, the world is changing. I don't do this for my health or the money. I do this to educate and warn you that our world is changing and you better be prepared.

UNG Post For Anon That Asked

I've gotten some emails and questions regarding UNG, so here are my thoughts.

UNG has had a massive fall from 64 almost 1 year ago and has left a multitude of gaps all the way down. The most notable are the group from 27 to 32. Once it took out 33.40 there was nothing to stop it.

UNG appears to have found a bottom (notice the gas prices at your home have not decreased all that much - Fing crooks). It also has broken out of the large falling wedge or massive channel off the 64 top. While range bound between 17.50 and 12.50 (a very nice trading range) it appears to be wedging at this time. That wedge looks like the consolidation will continue and trading range will narrow thru mid July at least. The monthly and weekly indicators are trying to push up. The daily and 60m indicators are trying to flatten out showing consolidation.

The warmer winter and lack of demand did nothing to help UNG this past winter. I think it has just hit rock bottom. Maybe there is a supply problem. I just don't understand how something that should be priced around $33 is trading down here and staying down here. I guess the simple answer is that it is out of favor with the commodity manipulators.

Check back in mid July to see where this one may go. I see nothing happening till then. IF it makes a double bottom, look for UNG to form a descending triangle with a triple bottom for the reversal pattern (yes, they can be reversal patterns).

/ES At The Peak

Most of you have noticed my buddy S135 harping on the channel down. I hope when he leaves a link you check it out, cause it is usually something worth looking at. To appease him (and to add further validity to my fall here theory), I am posting an UPDATE of my /ES channel down charts. Yes, I see the dominant channel. I believe in the channel, and at this time the channel supports my argument for the turn here in my last post. But, alas, all channels are made to be broken eventually and what always seems so obvious, whether it be a Shanky Square (TM) or a Kenny Dot (TM), may not be the thing.



I'll add one more channel. The big one. The 50% line is at 825 kind of near my target. I think the 847 level and the 100ma is the stopping point for this fall.

Sunday, June 21, 2009

What I Think Happens This Week In The Market

IMVHO the bulls are losing the top of the first hill of the mountain. The insurgent bear force has been fighting back and as the volume and candles indicate the bulls are weakening. While slowly taking the foot hill one step at a time, they have taken the top.

In my opinion the manipulators are going to allow the bears to push back in order to promote the classic bait and switch move on the unsuspecting bears. Draw 'em in and slaughter them is the tactic I think we're gonna see. Set up the short squeeze for the easy money cover is the best and possibly only method "they" have do drive the market higher. This will be a calculated move.

The daily, weekly and even specific monthly indicators are showing the turn. No one denies the market is overbought. A proper pullback has not occurred. OpEx is behind us. The P/E is not sustainable. GOOG and AAPL and the whole COMP appear to be ready. The financials are struggling with a top. Any further rise in the 10yr treasury may just spook the market.

As previously stated, there are a lack of proper divergences on the weekly indicators for a sustained turn and this fall will provide the depth for these divergences to be set up (The final push up the mountain). This fall may be swift as most have been on this run up. Now I'm possibly seeing a completed 1 wave down and in the process of completing a 2 corrective which could run a little higher than drawn. Three happens this week (and possibly 4 and 5 waves as well).

I'm of the opinion that this will have to look like a real move south and it could be significant for them to suck in enough shorts for the desired effect. At this time I'm looking at the 38% retracement of the whole move up which gets us to the 845 level and the 100ma as a stopping point. A nice 5 wave move measures out nicely to this area.

Click here to view the DAILY and WEEKLY indicator charts.

I am more than likely dead nuts wrong on this theory, but I like it. I believe the indicators and sentiment are there for a pullback. Insiders are selling. The candles are screaming weakness. Only time will tell. The Market has been trying to roll over for some time now and maybe this is the week. If not, it is coming soon.

Thanks for your views and comments. GL trading this week.

Friday, June 19, 2009

Weekend Video Pleasure With Bob Ross

HA! No, not that kind of video. (I'm positive that some of you where thinking RedTube). Sit back, relax, enjoy whatever extracurriculars you partake in (or not) and chill with the most entertaining painter of all time the late Bob Ross. Most of you are too young to have had the glorious experience I had watching Bob's tv show growing up. He's Mr. Rogers in a paint studio. You'll actually learn something. He's a blast (once a year) IMO. Give it some time. Watch his picture come to life. You'll either be a fan or not.

If you remember Bob, please leave a comment. I guess at 45 and with the world crumbling down around me I may be starting my regression to look for nice, fun things from the past for a brief escape. Maybe we all should do a little more of that. Might make this a better place.

I'll be updating all my charts this weekend and do a near term prognosis chart post Sunday. Thanks to everyone for the views and comments this week. I would like ask that you to go back and read my Just What We Need - More Regulation! if you have not. It's the most important post I have done to date, and I think it got lost in the mix or no one wants to read about our dire future.

Enjoy and have a great weekend while you still can.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Shanky's State Of the Charts Post

OK, here it is the long awaited, oft requested, fearless market prediction.

First -

This post prescribes to SPX only. I know others exist, but not right now. I do not prescribe to the '38 market did this and in '02 it did that, so please (S135) don't bring it up. This is a financial crisis of enormous proportions that will cause great pain and is far different than anything else we will ever experience again. IMHO this will end with us as a socialist state or being so over regulated we won't be able to take a crap without a "load" tax being applied IMHO. I am a EWT prescriber, but do not count, nor do I pretend to count. I am not a TA purist either. I'm sure as hell not an economist (MBA Finance). I prefer to take in and digest all the data and attempt to use TA to form a convoluted best judgement call (for lack of a better description).

The market -

This is not just a bubble burst. It is a giant credit bubble that they are trying to pump back up that will explode like Mongo in Blazing Saddles. Consumption will not return and global depression is possibly in order. States are soon to be falling apart, employment is pathetic and China and Japan have us by the balls as far as the value of our currency is concerned. And the fearless leaders have put us thru a barrage of lies and misrepresentations that are nicely chronicled in TD's ZH post here The Confidence Game In Quotes.

On to the chart -

There are three scenarios 1) Down bounce down 2) Straight down from here or 3)Trade in a range. I have deducted to prefer option 1 very slightly over 2. 3 would be OK if we can keep the volatility (from a trading and overall economic perspective).

Why do I like 1 the best?

I believe the upper trendline (red) will be tested on a pop-off overthrow E move. I have gone as far a placing Shanky's Blue Box(TM) (obvious knock off of the infamous Kenny dot (TM)) as a target zone. I do not believe the CNBS parade of crap, nor the GS/JPM/MS manipulation of the SPX, nor the bank's accounting fraud, nor the earnings manipulation scheme, nor the constant manipulation of the Treasuries has come to a halt just yet. See Who Are They Trying To Fool? (TNX) or We Have Mortgage Lift Off for a couple of good reasons for a move down very soon.

I do believe this P2 (bounce/correction) will complete a minimum 38% retracement from the 1576 top. I do not believe the weekly indicators are showing the necessary divergences for a significant turn just yet, but they have topped and this next pop will set the table and the proper divergences. The daily indicators are IMO in a place where they have been overbought since the market should have topped on April 20th and have the necessary momo for a decent push south here to the SPX 846 level.

IMO RSI on the weekly will be the key to the reversal just like it was at the low. A longer trend must be set and when that breaks launch your missiles. Dan, K and I will all have this under a microscope. Finally, when they start heading for the gates you'll know it. I will also throw out the monthly indicators are headed north right now.

One more short squeeze is in order. I believe we will see deflation before inflation and inflation will be the killer. Bond yields are not, and will not be a viable alternative to equities till later. The dollar is just not ready to crash just yet. Falsified Q1 bank earnings will show up in Q3 or Q4 earnings reports. I do believe there will be at least one instance of a market shutdown during trading hours. We have not had capitulation. Thus, I (of all people, can't believe this, no I'm not on drugs but should be) think we have more upside.

Option two and three-

Yes, I am pulling a Danerik "time will tell if its P2 peak or not" and prescribing soundly to multiple scenarios. IMO one, rightfully so, leads straight down from here. Not actually straight down, but you know what I mean. Option three prescribes to a possible extended trading range (the L or WW shape some are calling for). Enough said.

Bottom line -

I have kept my fall to 850 and then up scenario in tact, yet I have upped my P2 top by roughly 100 points (ouch) from 1021 to 1121ish. Am I nuts? Well, that's obvious and I'm sure I'll hear it from most of you. I'm even questioning my own call, but that is where I am. I am a permabear and do believe in the ultimate crash, just not yet. I am playing the manipulation card.

All of the numbers are on the chart. The pink dashed 5 wave move up to P2 is not exact although I tried to put it to proper scale. I do believe that a larger rising wedge will form and I placed the pink 5 wave move into that potential wedge. Time elements may be close, but are NOT specific. I do think P2 ends at or near EOY though. Interestingly enough (I'm NOT calling it) but my scenario looks like an inverse H&S play out to about my same target. I have not picked an ultimate bottom, but if pressed the options would be 651, 575, 475 and 432. These are not set in stone and are too far off to be really discussed (but I know someone will ask).

GL trading. I look forward to your comments on this one.

Just What We Need - More Regulation!

Hindsight is 20/20 right? Well not in the case of our fearless leaders. Remember what they say about the definition of insanity? Well, here we go again.

Mish - Obama's Blueprint for Reform Concentrates Still More Power in Hands of the Fed - "Obama's plan gives more power to those responsible for creating the mess." and "My Comment: Speed is always important when you are attempting to to set yourself up as prosecutor, judge, and jury. Should anyone actually have the time to dig into the details, the odds are they would find many reasons to not go along."

Mish continues - "President Bush's mad rush to judgment on the Iraq war is a prime example of the essence of speed. Bush desperately wanted to wage war on the idiotic ideas that Iraq had WOMDs and Iraqis they would welcome us with open arms. Bush was wrong on both counts but the war was rushed through because "speed was of the essence". Had Congress taken a few weeks to study the evidence, a needless, stupid war might have been avoided."

Ron Paul - Just watch and you will understand. More regulation has historically been a bad thing and dumping the principles of the free markets and the Constitution is never a good thing.

Credit Writedowns - A more comprehensive look at Obama’s proposed financial reforms - "My initial reaction, therefore, was largely positive. However, upon further reflection, it is clear this is a political document more than a regulatory one. The white paper is a govern by consensus product about which I have grave reservations. There is much to like about the white paper, but also much to question. As a result, I see no need to rush ahead and enact sweeping legislation and reform before the full measure of the financial crisis has been felt and the implications of regulatory lapses is known."

Gerald Celente has this to say:

Market ticker has this Obama's Financial Regulatory Reform. "While this proposal has many good features contained within it, it falls short in important areas. If the Obama Administration is truly interested in financial regulatory reform those "holes" in the proffered document must be closed as the legislative process works its way through Congress." Very well written article!

So here we go rushing into solving another problem without any sort of debate or serious thought process. Bush with the Iraq war, the TARP bill and now this. FNA people. What the hell is going on in Washington? Uber regulation is never a good thing. Our Constitutional rights are being raped right now. YES, WE GOT IT IN THE REAR FROM THE LAST ADMIN AS WELL, BUT wasn't this new leader of HOPE and CHANGE supposed to different? Wasn't his administration supposed to reign in the problems of big government? Alas, another electoral promise is swept under the rug.

I am afraid we all got the snow job of the century in this past election. Bush opened the door and handed off the ball and O is running with it. We are losing control by the day here and no one seems to give a rat's ass about it. Maybe the DEA should look at putting greed and power on the banned substance list. When they come after your guns (which they will), then and only then will you realize it is to late and we are living in a socialist society.

NOTE: My next post will be charts and a forecast. Sorry for the delay.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Obama Bash 1

I am very disappointed in the American public for voting in Obinhood. I agree totally that W was a horrible president and left us with a horrible mess, so don't go there. I am an American and will take the opportunity to express my displeasure with the current administration while I still have the chance. Yes, even though O is only a little over 100 days in office and was handed a huge pile of crap to fix, I believe he is not the right man for the job. There are far more scathing and degrading articles that I could have chosen to link. If things get worse, so will the Obama bashing.

Just so you know where I am coming from, I voted for Ron Paul, a pure constitutionalist that would fight for the people, our rights, that fully understands the US financial system and has many years of experience in Washington and hates big government.

Note: This has nothing to do with race and I will do my best to avoid any sort of racial innuendos or insinuations in this post and future ones to come (notice the title - Obama Bash 1). We all put our pants on the same way IMO. I apologize if some of the links have some slurs in them and will do my best to not report on those. I also think it is sad that I feel compelled to add this note to this post in 2009. It should be a non issue.

I will also avoid any conspiracy stuff in this post. Not saying that it will not be mentioned in future posts. I am leaving out videos such as The Obama Deception and other Alex Jones type stuff at this time cause that is not where I want this to go (although it may end up there).

Links to other articles that you know of that are good or bad on the O are welcomed.

Let 'er rip -

Is Barack Obama Unqualified to Be President? Well is he?

BLANKLEY: Obama lied; the economy died. I could go a lot worse here, but will refrain till this problem gets worse (if that is possible).

SLUMPING TO INFERNAL REGIONS "The people of this corrupt nation are now righteously indignant in regard to the criminal machinations of their government on the federal, state and local levels, now that they are increasingly being deprived of their hedonistic pleasures and dangle precipitously on a cliff overlooking a precipice of economic ruin, hunger, and restriction of their freedom to think, speak, and act on lawful personal desires they are restive and alarmed." and "I have stated a number of times that Barack - aka Barry Soetoro - Obama is a wet behind the ears political novice who is totally devoid of experience, wisdom, discernment and an ability to process the deviousness of the nation’s foes or to discern the depravity that is upon this nation."

Mish - Obama Asks Congress for the "Power to Punish"
"Obama wants to extend the powers of the Fed. Then again he wants to take some powers away from the Fed. It's hard to know what he is thinking until you boil it down to its essence. Being president is not enough, Obama wants to become the Czar of Czars with the "Power to Punish"." and "However, I suspect it will end up doing nothing more than extending government control over every aspect of our lives to the point of sheer ridiculousness, all for political gain."

This one is fun. The Audacity of Unawareness "Barack Obama, through his spokesman, claimed today that he was unaware of the tax day tea parties. Granted, the MSM has done a good job in suppressing any sort of coverage ahead of time (and the little coverage they did provide was derisive at best)… but how out of touch is the Community Organizer in Chief, really?"

Not good folks. Not good at all.

Still Working On P3!

From this blog? You gotta be kidding me? Nope, the barrage continues. I have found several nice articles that challenge the pundits green shoot theory and do a damn good job of it. Read 'em all back to back and you'll feel a lot better.

Since ZH readers voraciously send TD all the good stuff, I raid his pantry again. One you may have missed or skipped over is Andy Xie: Tight Spot for Fed, Blind Spot for Investors. There you will find, "The world is setting up for a big crash, again. Since the last bubble burst, governments around the world have not been focusing on reforms. They are trying to pump a new bubble to solve existing problems. Before inflation appears, this strategy works. As inflation expectation rises, its effectiveness is threatened. When inflation appears in 2010, another crash will come."

In another delightfully truthful and well documented article The Big Picture has Have stock markets run away from reality? Richard Russell, veteran writer of the daily Dow Theory Letters, commented on Monday: “I’m of the opinion that this bear market rally is in the process of topping out. When a counter-trend rally tops out within an ongoing primary bear market, the odds are that the stock market will break to new lows during the period ahead. That means that the stock market will break below its March 9 lows in coming weeks. A violation of the March 9 lows would be a shocker to most investors, and it would be a forecast of an even worse economy coming up.” Nice!

In an older post you may have seen (but keeping with the theme of this post) you may have read The Great Depression II meme from Credit Writedowns. If not, READ IT. "While I have been singing a more bullish tune in regards to the prospect of a technical recovery in 2009, I am concerned about a double dip as a likely outcome."

It's a comin folks. How it all goes down is any one's guess, but like they say about that light at the end of the tunnel "oops, it was a train", and right now everyone thinks it is something better. Wrong, oh how wrong all the green shoot subscribers are. P2 may be topping here, or the sheeple may drive the markets higher after some sort of significant pullback then the crash, but the crash is coming. Everything I am reading is pointing to 2010. the sooner the better I say. Let's get this over with.

More than P3? Yup, if you are severe perma super uber mega bear read Deep Thoughts From Jeff Gundlach. Quite possibly the scariest thing I have read to date. This takes us beyond P3 to monetizing the national debt and screwing the world which IMO will lead to the war to end all wars.

I'm sure you read that Obinhood has said no to CA bailout. Too bad they can't become a bank holding company. The shit is gonna hit the fan in CA. The Governator is gonna shut down the government. This will make for some good footage from Youtube! If you think the Watts riots were bad this will make them look like child's play IMO. From ZH and the S&P ratings agency, "With the specter of approaching payment deferrals or issuance of registered warrants, the magnitude of the cash and revenue problem, and the limited amount of time left within which to make meaningful budget reform, downward pressure on the state's rating is intensifying, in our view. A failure to address the structural budget gap leading to significant use of registered warrants, payment delays, and more acute liquidity strain could cause the rating to fall below the 'A' category." Not good.

GL trading.

Today's Cartoon

So true! (NOT)

Monday, June 15, 2009

She's Gonna Blow Captain! (and a REAL green shoot!)

SCREW UP #1 - Record Credit Card Default Rate from Calculated Risk is something you have all most likely seen today, but it just looks better with all the data in one place. Throwing the later announced BAC troubles in really caps off a good story. CR notes, "For the stress tests, the indicative two year loss rate for the more adverse scenario was 18% to 20% for credit cards (around 9% per year). That test might have been too lenient."

SCREW UP #2 - San Francisco Fed: "This Recession Should Cause A Significant Decline In Core Inflation TD at ZH has this to say, "Maybe if the Fed hadn't drowned the market in 10x more liquidity than it could possibly absorb (with all of it stuck in oil barrels and none trickling down to the consumer), L&W wouldn't be fooling themselves. But who are we to criticize Ben Bernanke." and he could not be more right.

SCREW UP #3 - I'll keep picking on CA because they are an easy target and are in such bad shape that the major media will hardly cover it (surprise!). CA might as well be on another planet. This is a bigger deal than we all know IMO. Mish has California Foreclosure Moratoriums An Exercise Of Stupidity . "This bill is pure idiocy and will not stop a single foreclosure. Instead, the bill will increase late pays and foreclosures. It's an exercise of sheer stupidity."

Thus three examples of sheer idiocy by our feerless leaders today and we're counting on the same morons that got us in this mess to get us out of it? Well there was one good piece of news today. The man that SHOULD BE our fearless leader Ron Paul's "Audit The Fed" Bill Gets Majority House Support is the only true green shoot to this point of the diaster.

NOTE - Indicators are turning. Weeklys are there if we can get any follow thru. Still digesting market after vacation and updating charts, so you'll get a chart post soon. Thanks for the views and comments.

Cartoon Of The Day

I'm gonna start adding a little humor to the posts as some filler. Hope you enjoy them.

Put It In Perspective

Sensational visual. This vid explains just how little 100mm in budget cuts is. Amazing IMO.

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Commenter and good friend "Annoyed" who "Used to be Annoyed" and became "Further Annoyed" and is now only "Slightly Annoyed" thought of me when he saw this.

NOTE: I will be heading to the beach in about 30min for the weekend. 17th wedding anniversary and leaving the kids at home! I may or may not post, but will be back in action Monday night. There is a possibility of and "induced" rant, but highly unlikely as I intend on getting away and enjoying my freedom and money while I still have it. Have a great weekend if you don't hear from me.

Just Watch

Very short, but very real. Have barf bag in hand.

Courtesy of commenter Charlie Faux on ZH.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Back To The Charts

We're toppy, but not quite there just yet. What I want to see are divergences in the weekly indicators. We're getting solid roll over in most on the weekly and the daily indicators have the necessary divergences in place. The daily RSI crossing the 20ma is one of my keys for the turn and it is sitting right there right now. If the Daily's pull down like expected then this could be it, but we'll have to see.

I'm not calling it for three reasons 1) EOM statement painting and 2) Fed meeting later this month 3) VIX appears to have one more short push south in it. I'm thinking it will possibly be a continued agonizing two to three weeks of sideways action.

All the ingredients appear to be in place for the fall. 30%+ rise off bottom, P/E overvalued, banks have completed pump 'n dump, dollar bottomed, 10yr treas moving up, Dan and K's counts appear to be there (or near), and on and on, but mainly the emotional aspect appears to be in place. We've been faked out many times on this move up, so I will cautiously approach this move. I really want to see the VIX daily RSI take out its trendline and the weekly SPX RSI fall below its trendline.

Daily Indicator Chart

Weekly Indicator Chart

GL trading.

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

My Blow Off Top!

I'm still pissed and may be perma-pissed this time. I'm not happy. You do realize that these assholes mortgaged your grand children's future and screwed up a great country just to save the collective asses of the big banks in the good ol boy system. No it can't be reversed now. They have started the time bomb ticking and 007 ain't comin to save the day.

We get the pleasure of eating crap for 50 freaking years because of the greed of the banking system, the lack of competence of our government officials and mainly because we are the stupid fucks that allowed it all to happen while we sat on our asses and watched CNBS lie to us on our new 52" plasmas sucking fruity drinks in our La-Z-Boys eating fucking Cheetos (Not mentioning what was playing on the plasma and the Cheetos - if you remember that old joke about the orange ... never mind). I'll be at the beach this weekend without the kids and may post some sort of induced rant (probably similar to redneck video dude).

Now to the Green Shoot news of the day.

New SHANKY 1000 POINT 5STAR PARLAY POST OF THE DAY - Let's start with the gem of the day EMPIRICAL PROOF: Obama Stimulus = FAIL from Market ticker. "How dumb can you be, America?" ROF LMAO. He's almost as pissed as I am.

U.S. consumer debt falls by $15.7 billion "Consumer credit fell by $15.7 billion, or 7.4% at an annual rate, to $2.52 trillion. It was the second largest decline in outstanding debt on record, exceeded by March's $16.6 billion drop." Let's do the math increased savings rate, job losses out the ass, take credit away, lower home values, increased oil/commod prices (for no good reason) and GS analysts are raising earnings estimates. Give me a freaking break. Bueller? Bueller? HELLO?

And I had a commenter from last night throw this at me, "Just because you've called it wrong doesn't mean the market is "being manipulated"!! It's you who have manipulated yourself into thinking that the S&P should be going in a specific direction. Get a grip!" I almost beat my dog after reading that one. And you wonder why I am so pissed? "It's not manipulated Shanky you moron. You just suck". Don't think so pal. FnA it's not manipulated. You get a grip.

The ignorance and brovado of the average American, and the lack of the spirit this country was founded on is astounding. I'm afraid we've lost the will to be Americans. I watched a documentary about the coal miners in West Virginia last night that fought for their right to have unions so the asshole establishment would not keep screwing them. These folks fought, like formed sides and had guns and died fighting for their rights. It was inspirational. We just ain't got that any more and we need it now more than ever to put these banking bastards and crooked politicians and special interest groups and lobbyists in their place. Not with violence, but with a vote and a loud voice in this case. (Note: the term redneck came from these miners solidarity when they all wore red bandannas around their necks). This is where my rants are based. Not in market performance, but in the impotence of the American society.

In Mish's Oakland California Ponders Bankruptcy you get, ""We're going to try to avoid it, but am I going to say it would never happen? I can't say that," Brunner said." So CA will just fall apart in chunks now.

Mish also has Bankruptcy Filings Reach 6,000 A Day. Oh, goody, goody! This is old (covered in the redneck rant), but I never posted it for prosperity. OBTW this number is increasing monthly.

Prag Cap has MUST READ: A TWO PART CREDIT CRISIS. It is a good post. What would make it better? Some serious emotion and passion that is required to get the point across to the ignoramuses out there that need to have reality beamed directly into their conscious brains (if that is even possible). Can't get around the visual of the Batman/Riddler/CNBS brainwash thingy going on - can't you see it? All those beams from the GE tower in NYC spreading out around the globe. I'm getting tired of the sterilized financial data reporting from the drones of the system. Throw some hot sauce on it and spice it up for goodness sake.

That is enough for now. I feel a little better after the rant last night and this blow off top. Speaking of blow off tops - LOL - like that's gonna happen LOL. Thanks for the many comments and your understanding. It appears that a bunch of you have something to get off your chests as well. Lots of frustration out there and when things get worse, I'm afraid that we'll all be in the streets raising hell at some time. I'm planning an O/Govt bashing to beat all bashings. Too bad I started this blog after Bush left office. Easy pickings right there.

GL trading.

Monday, June 8, 2009

This Rant Beats Mine Hands Down

OMG I want to be this guy (kind of - at least for these 10m). First - If you have not read my rant below, do that first. Absolutely priceless and could possibly lead me in a new direction. This looks like a ton of fun! I feel better after watching it for a third time. Super large hat tip to Anon commenter for the heads up. This could so be me. This is a thing of BEAUTY! Please watch it thru to the end. Absolutely priceless! I love this guy. Don't go fuckin with us southerners. Like this dude and I have demonstrated, we ain't playin with a full deck. I bet he's one of the ones that has been loading up on ammo.


(If you want to skip the rant and the foul language there are two good links at the bottom) -

At some point you just want to throw up your hands and yell out WTF! When is this bullshit gonna end? So did you notice another 3:30 rally? A note to the manipulators, if you are gonna do it let's get back to the good 'ol days of 300 point moves in the last 30min and no one will complain any more. At least make them tradeable.

Let me preface this piece by saying that I am content and have been playing both the long and short side of the market as noted here, so I am not a frustrated permabear investor. I am a frustrated American that has the common sense to see thru the wafting green cloud of stench that has been laid to throw the scent of the hounds chasing the prey.

CNBS and the multitude of manipulated rags around the country are simply screwing the average investor. Over the past few weeks talking to individuals (lawyers, doctors, professionals) around town I get the impression that they (90%) HAVE NO FREAKING CLUE that we are about to get our asses handed to us. I try to tell them we are screwed and they look at me like WTF Shanky, go sniff some more glue and suck down two more 5hr energy drinks and leave me alone you hyper foul mouthed freak. They say Cudlow said this, Cramer says that and my advisor just loaded me up on some AAPL, its gonna be great! OMFG, soot me now (that is if you can get any more ammo cause there is a reason people are buying the hell out of it).

Why the fuck are people so damn stupid? I know that is a stupid question, but one worth asking anyway. Well dear reader, you are NOT stupid because YOU READ, YOU HAVE A DESIRE TO SUCCEED, and YOU WANT TO BE INVOLVED. Congratufuckinglations, you are in the 1% of the people I actually respect on this planet. You care about your family and education and success and to some degree proper moral ethics. It is the stupid ass MF's that sit on their asses and take things for granted (and I'm not picking on those on welfare here) that are spoon fed bullshit news and only want to hear and believe the positive spin that dominate our society that have life on cruise control are getting ready to have the wakeup call of a lifetime.

Well folks, the land of the "FREE" is about to become the land of the "EXPENSIVE". The free ride is over. The rally is almost toast then to deflation and then inflation. They have pulled off this pumped and dumped, short squeezed, dilution filled, accounting frauded, PPTed driven rally and have the sheeple believing in "change" again. Boy is this gonna hurt. Like a 10ft enema sans KY I tell ya.

Ignorance is bliss! ROF LMAO. Ignorance is gonna take it up the ass and like it! Not me and not you baby! We give a damn and as bad as things get at least we, the ones that attempt to see thru the green shits, have a chance to put on our protection so we won't get the governments STD's. At least well have the KY in hand when they come tax our carbon foot print.

Glad I got that off my chest. Thanks.

Now, The Big Picture has a great post on "How to Fix Financial Television" that you need to read and participate in the comment section.

And Tyler at ZH has this evidence to document the PPT player JPM jacking up the market today. Sad when they don't even bother to hide it anymore.

UPDATED LINK - What really pissed me off today was Obinhood telling the Supreme court to go to hell and like it in the Chrysler case. This is really bad and indicative of times to come. From ZH - Richard Mourdock's Take On The SCOTUS Decision

CPC cracked downtrend line today.

Sunday, June 7, 2009

/ES Has Reached Top LT Trendline And The VIX

Some of you will remember these /ES charts from previous posts. They tell a simple story. The /ES has a dominant bear market channel down from the top and an intermediate channel off of a point near the bottom. Why am I bringing this up now? The intermediate channel touched the top channel lines last Friday at the open. This can be clearly seen in the daily chart.

Here is the weekly chart. Weekly RSI has a negative divergence and STO is embedded. MACD histogram is topped out and it is hard to tell if there is a divergence in there or not, but given the action of STO and RSI I expect a bearish signal cross soon.

Here is a drilled down view of the daily chart. The daily volume has decreased from 5/8 and the indicators have all set negative divergences. MACD should put in a bear cross Monday.

Now a look at the VIX. I have identified a falling wedge with A-E touches. MACD has flat lined while the price has continued to fall. ROC has broken a trendline and ADX is close to (and has been trying to) give a bullish cross. When the RSI trendline gives way the VIX will be on its way to several targets identified in the chart.

Friday, June 5, 2009

The Ugliest Chart Makes An Uglier Picture

And you thought the monthly indicators looked bad? Check out the yearly. Yes, they matter in case you were asking. They add proof to the P3 and much further weakness scenario. No comments on the chart's beauty. It is just here for the indicators. I was not about to trash all my ST and LT stuff on the chart just to make it look pretty.

MACD bear cross and the divergences from the '00 top to the last top in '07 are just insane. It will take a while (a looong while) to correct this.

Note -
the MA5 is at 1196
the MA20 is at 939
the MA50 is at 454
the lower BB is at 201

Thursday, June 4, 2009

How Bad Can It Get?

Well, leave it up to my merry band of bloggers to deliver the real news. For those of you that don't prescribe to the "controlled media" theory, ask yourself why none of what your are about to read is reported in the national media?

Mish in Benefit Spending Hits $2Trillion, Highest Percent Since 1929; One Dollar Out of Every Six From Vouchers brings up what should be the total demise of California and two more devastating economic statistics. "Excuse me but is this $17.8 billion deficit in addition to the $24 billion budget deficit? How the Hell is California going to pay that back and fix a $24 billion budget deficit that without a doubt will cause a massive increase in unemployment? Has anyone factored that in?"

While we are on the subjects, why don't we address some of the other 49 states issues, Would not want to be partial to just CA now, would we? TD at Zero Hedge is coming back to life with this "The State Vs. Federal Schism". Want some broad data green shoot fertilizer? "The number of states experiencing revenue shortfalls increased in fiscal 2009. Revenues from all sources which include sales, personal income, corporate income and all other taxes and fees exceed expectations in two states, are on target in ten states, and are below expectations in thirty eight states. This is in contrast to fiscal 2008 when twenty-five states reported that revenue collections exceeded estimates." Just click and read on. So much for that remaining muni income for the elderly might as well wipe that out along with their dividend income.

So now we are over that little hurdle try these two little factoids on for size from Mish's same post on CA. "One in nine Americans are using federal food stamps to help buy groceries as the country's deep recession forced another 591,000 people onto the federal anti-hunger program at latest count." and "In all, government spending on benefits will top $2 trillion in 2009 — an average of $17,000 provided to each U.S. household, federal data show. Benefits rose at a 19% annual rate in the first quarter compared to the last three months of 2008." Let Cudlow throw that in the old mustard seed and green shoot pipe and put a spark to it.

Oh, did anyone notice we lost another 345,000 jobs this month? 9.4% unemployment. I am positive this will be revised, but we had NEGATIVE REVISIONS? Yes indeed, things are improving all around us. GM, Chrysler, Latvia, oh yes, joyous time lie ahead. The saving grace is we've got Timmay, O and Uncle Ben bailing the banks out with all our taxes to save our collective asses. Oops, they are saving their collective asses, screw us. Vive la Bank.

In one of the most delightful articles I have read in a long time Phillip Davis posted this mother load of all hell is gonna break loose article this morning on Seeking Alpha. Taste this sweet little morsel in "Options Trader Thursday Outlook: Triple Top Testing". "Commodities have led this rally with a 14% gain in DBC and a 12% gain in DBA pulling up the OIH and XLE around 10% for the month of May. Since the commodity pushers make up about 20% of the S&P, that’s 2% of the S&P’s 1.5% gains for the month right there! Add the 10% jump in the Nasdaq led by just 6 stocks and the rest of the market must REALLY SUCK for the S&P not to be up 5% at least. Don’t worry, though, there’s more than one way to boost a market. In addition to buying long futures contracts which they never intend to take delivery of and renting tankers to store commodities off-shore to create demand on one end without creating supply on the other (clever isn’t it), our TARP recipients are also our "respected" financial institutions and those that don’t control the media directly can still get plenty of press by UPGRADING the things they are blatantly manipulating." It is just wonderful.

And from Calc Risk lets examine Record High Yield Curve, Rising Mortgage Rates. "The difference in yields between Treasury two- and 10-year notes widened to a record again today ... The so-called yield curve steepened to 2.79 percentage points, surpassing the previous record of 2.75 percentage points set last week. The previous record was 2.74 on Aug. 13, 2003." So, basically if you did not get to refi, or if you had great credit and were denied or if you were one of the millions in line trying to get a refi - fuhgeddaboutit.

Maybe Dan and K are right and P3 is here. The financial pump and dump may have finally come to an end with BoA getting their 33.5b mark. As I noted in an earlier post, banks that lagged to this point raising capital may be toasty critters soon. Don't be surprised to see the banks set record profits next quarter as I am positive they have their shorts in place (not to mention all of the TARP money, the government accountants and the USA and possibly the world by the balls now) Oh, the FDIC only has like 1.3% of the reserves in the bank to cover our deposits, so fugheddabout getting your deposits as well. All is good though. O will be spending a cool T on health care, so we must have some money left. Say goodbye to America folks. I may be loading up on seeds and ammo this summer just in case.